Amid the deepening insecurity Urgent efforts to form a government
Monday Morning weekly, Lebanon
July 18 2005
President Emile Lahoud, who is said to want to see a blocking
minority available in the new cabinet
Premier-designate Fuad Saniora, who said he had no wish to experience
the kind of cabinet deadlock seen in previous governments
General Aoun’s Bloc of Reform and Change meeting after it decided not
to join the “cabinet of the 30”
Saad Hariri: Resolutely optimistic
Walid Jumblatt: No to a cabinet of technocrats
Hezballah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, whose party was determined
to get the Foreign Affairs portfolio
Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Walid Mouallem: “Syria has absolutely
no interest in committing attacks in Lebanon which cause innocent
victims”
BCCIA President Adnan Kassar: Worries about “political immobilism”
Trucks waiting in the no-man’s land between the Syrian and Lebanese
frontier posts last week. Lebanese business groups say they are losing
300,000 dollars a day as a result of the slow processing of goods at
the frontier
Nothing is right anymore at the governmental level, especially after
Prime Minister-designate Fuad Saniora submitted to President Emile
Lahoud a cabinet team comprising 30 members instead of the alternative
of 24 ministers on which the parliamentary blocs had agreed. While
opinions are divided concerning the reasons that led him to change
the governmental combination, Saniora justified himself before the
president, who received him in the morning. The day before he had had
a phone conversation with the Maronite patriarch, Cardinal Nasrallah
Sfeir, on the same subject. The cardinal’s view of the matter was
not immediately known.
The situation was so complex that circles close to Saniora disclosed
that he went to Baabda Palace having prepared a letter in which he
asked to be allowed to relinquish the task of forming a cabinet. And if
he did not get the presidential green light on the enlarged formula,
he would either try to return to that of 24 ministers or to opt for
a government of technocrats.
How long, observers wonder, can the country continue with a resigned
government doing no more than transacting routine business and a
premier-designate opposed by three large parliamentary blocs: the
Free Patriotic Current (FPC), the Amal Movement and Hezballah and
their allies.
Following a meeting of his Bloc of Reform and Change (BRC), General
Michel Aoun announced his decision not to take part in the “cabinet of
30”, which went against the agreement concluded with Saad Hariri and
Saniora. He added, “I tried not to complicate the premier-designate’s
task, but he has changed his attitude and only reserved for us a
number of portfolios less than that to which we are entitled… let
them form a ministerial combination of their choice but I won’t cover
anyone. I thought I was dealing with statesmen, but I realize that
they are maneuvering to monopolize all the wheels of power. Public
matters cannot be dealt with in this way.”
Saad Hariri did not conceal his regret and accused “certain allies of
the FPC leader of preventing him of cooperating” with the Hariri group.
Hezballah’s point of view Circles close to Baabda revealed that
Speaker Nabih Berri was demanding seven portfolios in the event
the “cabinet of 30” formula was adopted. Hezballah’s viewpoint was
set out by South Metn MP Ali Ammar. “From the beginning”, he said,
“we called for installation of a government of union or of national
reconciliation capable of facing all challenges on both the internal
and external levels. We hoped to see Saniora taking the principle of
consensual democracy into consideration as well as that of the balanced
representation of the various political forces and groups. This is
the only formula that can help Lebanon get out of this situation and
the long tunnel of pressures and difficulties. And we warn against
allowing the country to return to the system of dividing spoils.”
After two weeks of consultations and maneuvering, no progress had
been made. But Saad Hariri was convinced that everything would be
arranged in a way satisfactory to the great majority of the people.
Why a cabinet of 30?
The explosion that targeted former Defense Minister Elias Murr should
have normally accelerated the formation of the cabinet, but in fact
it was the contrary that occurred.
The reason is that on last Tuesday the premier-designate submitted
to the president a government formed of 30 members instead of 24 on
which the various parliamentary forces had agreed.
This provoked hostile reactions: first of all, from the president,
who complained that the proposed ministerial team was insufficiently
representative of opinion in the country.
For its part, the FPC demanded to be represented by five ministers
in a cabinet of 30, a formula on which it had agreed with Saad Hariri
during the general’s recent visit to Hariri’s home. Finally, Amal and
Hezballah did not conceal their disappointment either, especially
since they were not consulted about the increase in the number of
ministers proposed and the sharing-out of portfolios on a new basis.
The governmental team proposed — the third proposal — by Saniora
comprised: Nayla Mouawad, Jihad Azour, Ghattas Khoury, Joseph Sarkis,
Simon Abi-Ramia, Pierre Gemayel (Maronites); Bahij Tabbara, Hassan
Sabeh, Khaled Kabbani, Mohammad Safadi, Ahmad Fatfat (Sunnites); Elias
Murr, Issam Abou-Jamra, Tarek Mitri, Atef Majdalani (Greek Orthodox);
Marwan Hamade, Ghazi Aridi and Faisal Sayegh (Druzes); Michel Pharaon,
Nehme Tohme, Elias Skaff (Greek Catholics); Jean Oghassabian, Alain
Tabourian (Armenians); Faouzi Salloukh, Mohammad Fneish, Mohammad
Khalife, Trad Hamade, Nawar Sahili, Ghazi Youssef (Shiites).
Why the increase in the size of the cabinet from 24 to 30? Certainly
analysts answer in these terms: the new majority wants to prevent
the formation of a “blocking third” inside the cabinet, which would
comprise representatives of the FPC, Lahoudists and Hezballah, still
close to the Administration — nine ministers in a cabinet of 24. If
the Aounists are deprived of two portfolios, such a “blocking third”
could not be formed.
In any case, protracted political instability is unlikely to
restore desperately needed confidence to an economy burdened by
a 35-billion-dollar national debt built up during reconstruction
following the 1975-90 war. Adnan Kassar, president of the Beirut
Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture, expressed fears about
a worsening of economic, financial and social problems.
“The country can’t stay with two cabinets, one outgoing, the other in
gestation. It’s urgent that we put in place a cabinet up to the level
of the reforms needed. We need ministers who inspire confidence. The
international community won’t help Lebanon if it doesn’t help itself,
as President Jacques Chirac said at the G8 summit.”
An extra-parliamentary cabinet?
On Thursday the premier-designate announced his intention to form
an extra-parliamentary cabinet of 14 or of 24 ministers after the
failure of two attempts to form a government of national union.
“After consulting President Lahoud, I proposed to him the formation
of an extra-parliamentary cabinet comprising non-party personalities
who possess the confidence of the principal parliamentary blocs,”
Saniora told reporters following a 45-minute audience at Baabda
Palace. “The president encouraged me to proceed on that path.”
Sources close to the president said he was hoping for a repetition of
the experience of Najib Mikati, whose non-parliamentary government,
set up to supervise the general elections, had made a very good
impression on local and international opinion.
Named the prime minister-designate on June 30 by the president,
Saniora was making his third attempt to form a cabinet. His two
previous attempts had been rejected by the president, the Shiite
Amal-Hezballah coalition (33 MPs) and the bloc of Aoun and his allies
(21 MPs).
Saniora, right-hand man of Saad Hariri, the head of the parliamentary
majority (72 out of 128), stated that “the situation requires a
homogeneous team that would not become bogged down in squabbles,
as was the case in the time” of Rafik Hariri.
He was referring to the conflicts between the assassinated former
premier and President Lahoud, which had prevented reforms and partly
paralyzed the Executive.
This remark by Saniora led observers to wonder whether, in making
his third attempt, he would not meet with the same problems he had
encountered in his previous attempts.
Hezballah, which rejects UN Security Council Resolution 1559, demanding
the disarming of its party, wants a man it can have confidence in as
foreign minister. Reacting to Saniora’s announcement on Thursday,
the “Hezb” said it would insist on respect for the parliamentary
balances. And a frank hostility to any non-parliamentary cabinet was
shown by two FPC MPs, Nehmatallah Abi-Nasr and Salim Salhab, while
observers suggested that Walid Jumblatt’s bloc (16 MPs) would also
oppose it.
But analysts noted that numerous parliamentary blocs had earlier
welcomed the idea of an extra-parliamentary government and, more
generally, the proposal that MPs should not serve as cabinet ministers,
nor ministers as MPs.
Analysts also spoke of actions by President Lahoud, who had by turns
been the advocate of the Amal-Hezballah tandem and of the FPC in order
to have a blocking minority in the cabinet and prevent Saniora from
having the support of more than two-thirds of the ministers.
And while the president and the premier-designate may agree that
the new government should be the exact reflection of the new chamber
elected in May-June, their interpretations of this fact are in complete
contradiction, observers point out. Saniora holds that Saad Hariri’s
Future Current, to which he belongs, having an absolute majority in
the chamber, should have the same majority in the cabinet.
For the president, however, there must be a blocking minority within
the cabinet so that a procedure for dismissing a government may
always be available in the event of a grave conflict between the
prime minister and the president, as in the case of a fundamental
disagreement between the two heads of the Executive.
According to the Constitution, a government is considered to have
resigned if a third of its members resign. This is practically the
only power over the Executive that still remains to a president,
analysts indicate.
Saniora said he had set a deadline for himself to form a cabinet,
but he did not elaborate. Persons close to him indicated however that
he would stand down if he had not succeeded by the end of the week.
Saniora added that “the greatest danger that Lebanon runs is an
immobilism like that which prevailed during the governments of Mr.
Hariri. I don’t want to repeat that experience.”
On Friday Saniora presented proposal number four, a cabinet of 24.
Lahoud’s rejection of the previous three, palace sources said, was
due to the fact that they were “not sufficiently representative of
national opinion and would therefore not be a cabinet of national
union.” Saniora said the fourth attempt was the best combination he
was capable of and would garner the support of about 100 MPs. He said
he would “have to reassess the situation in the light of President
Lahoud’s reaction to the [fourth] proposal.” He stressed that the
cabinet would abide by “national considerations” and would not be
“a hostage to any internal debates.”
Walid Jumblatt spoke out strongly against any non-parliamentary
cabinet. “We refuse to discuss a government of technocrats,” he told
an interviewer.
“Such a government would not be up to the challenges facing it,
particularly getting to grips with security,” he said in reference
to the spate of bombings that have rocked Lebanon since the February
murder of Rafik Hariri.
He called on the main opposition alliance to use its eight-seat
majority in Parliament to press ahead with forming a government of
its own, regardless of the views of Lahoud.
“If Lahoud rejects it, we’ll know what to do,” he said, referring to
calls for the president to stand down over his links with Syria and the
security apparatus it nurtured before its troop withdrawal in April.
Saad Hariri has previously said that he wants to move cautiously on
the question of Lahoud’s future because of the “sensitivity” of the
issue. The president was given an extra three years in office under
a controversial amendment adopted last autumn.
“Given the pressure which Lebanon is under, the new government must
have the credibility to face the challenges,” a Hezballah source said.
And an Aoun aide said: “You can’t separate such a government from
politics because it’s got to take political decisions.”