Author: Kalantarian Kevo

ONE AZERBAIJANI SERVICEMAN DIES, ONE INJURED IN SHELLING INCIDENT
by Sevindzh Abdullayeva and Viktor Shulman
ITAR-TASS News Agency
March 7, 2006 Tuesday
Baku
One Azerbaijani serviceman was killed on Tuesday when positions
of the national army came under fire in the Tertersky district in
western Azerbaijan, spokesman for the republic’s Defense Ministry
Ilgar Verdiyev said.
The fatality was identified as Private Perviz Dzhangirov, 20. The fire
was opened by Armenian armed groups from the neighboring occupied
territories, Verdiyev said, adding that Azerbaijan’s positions in
the Fizulinsky district in the southwest of the country were also
shelled on Tuesday. One serviceman was injured in the incident.
In a separate incident on Tuesday, national army positions in the
Kazakhsky district in the west of the country were shelled. There
were no casualties, according to the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry.
A Tuesday report by Itar-Tass correspondent in Yerevan Tigran Liloyan
citing the Armenian Defense Ministry said the Azerbaijani army shelled
border positions of Armenian army units in the Vaiksky, Taushsky and
Idzhevansky districts last night and on Monday.
Armenia did not return fire. There have been no casualties, Armenian
Defense Ministry spokesman Seiran Shakhsuvaryan said.

TURKISH AMBASSADOR SAYS YEREVAN AND BAKU SHOULD STRIVE FOR PEACE
Armenpress
Mar 07 2006
BAKU, MARCH 7, ARMENPRESS: Turkey’s ambassador to Azerbaijan said
his country would render military assistance to Azerbaijan in case
a new war resumed between it and Armenia if Baku and Ankara signed
a military union agreement.
The ambassador, Turan Morali, was quoted by APA news agency as saying
that his government did not, however, support a military resolution
of the Armenian-Azerbaijani dispute over Nagorno-Karabakh.
“At any rate both sides should strive for peace,” he was quoted
as saying.
He said under a Turkish-Azeri agreement on military cooperation
Ankara provides a large-scale and diverse assistance to Azerbaijani
armed forces.

EUROPA (press release), Belgium
March 7 2006
Benita Ferrero-Waldner
European Commissioner for External Relations and European
Neighbourhood Policy
European Neighbourhood Policy
Swedish Institute for International Affairs and the European
Commission Representation in Sweden
Stockholm, 7 March 2006

Reference: SPEECH/06/149 Date: 07/03/2006

SPEECH/06/149
Swedish Institute for International Affairs and the European
Commission Representation in Sweden
Stockholm, 7 March 2006
Your Excellencies,
Ladies and Gentlemen,
First let me thank Mr Anders Hellner and the Swedish Institute of
International Affairs for co-hosting this seminar with the Commission
in Sweden.
I am very happy to be here today in this beautiful city, on my first
visit to Sweden as Commissioner for External Relations.
Sweden has always played an important role in promoting international
peace, understanding and solidarity. It has a distinguished record of
statesmen and women of which it is rightly proud, from Raoul
Wallenberg to Dag Hammarskjold, from Olof Palme to Anna Lindh. With
such an international pedigree Sweden clearly makes an enormous
contribution to the EU’s international standing.
Giving the EU a stronger voice in the world is one of the four
priorities of the Barroso Commission, together with prosperity,
solidarity and security. Our most urgent task is to restore dynamic
and sustainable growth in Europe and provide more and better jobs to
Europe’s citizens. All of which requires a strong EU, able to promote
and protect its interests on the international stage.
We are also facing another major challenge – the gap between the EU’s
achievements and the way its citizens perceive it. Across Europe
people are asking what the EU is for, what it is doing to respond to
their concerns and how it will help meet 21st century challenges.
The EU has to deliver results in areas its citizens deem important –
jobs, security, energy and migration.
The stronger we are, the more we can deliver. And by achieving
concrete results we will re-establish confidence in the EU and
demonstrate to our citizens the benefits of European Union in the
21st century.
***
Which brings me to the topic of today’s seminar, the European
Neighbourhood Policy (ENP). Many of you here will remember the
genesis of ENP. It’s a policy which has always had strong support
from the Swedish government. Anna Lindh and Leif Pagrotsky were among
its chief proponents.
The EU’s aim is to expand the zone of prosperity, stability and
security beyond our borders. The question is how to use our soft
power to leverage the kinds of reforms that would make that possible.
The answer, in the decade following the fall of the Berlin wall, was
enlargement. This has been a tremendously successful policy, with a
momentous impact on the European continent. EU enlargement has made
an extraordinary contribution to peace and prosperity, thanks to our
strategic use of the incentives on offer. And I know Sweden has been
a strong supporter of this policy.
Nor is it over – we still have work to do to consolidate 2004’s
enlargement and there are new enlargement commitments on which we
must deliver.
Yet it is clear that the EU cannot enlarge ad infinitum.
So how else can we pursue our geo-strategic interest in expanding the
zone of stability, security and prosperity beyond our borders? How
best can we support our neighbours’ political and economic
transitions, and so tackle our own citizens’ concerns? ENP provides
the answer.
At its heart is the question of borders – not as a way of defining
ourselves, but because they are key to many of our citizens’ urgent
concerns – security, migration and economic growth. As Sweden knows
full well, borders cannot be solely about barriers and obstacles.
They must work flexibly as a facilitator of economic, social and
cultural exchanges.
That, in its essence, is what the European Neighbourhood Policy is
about. It is about responding to our citizens’ concerns for
prosperity, security and stability, not with an abstract concept but
with concrete, measurable results. And it is about helping our
neighbours towards their own prosperity, security and stability, not
by imposing reforms, but by supporting and encouraging reformers.
We offer our eastern and southern neighbours many of the benefits
previously associated only with membership, such as a stake in our
internal market, involvement in EU programmes, and cooperation in
transport and energy networks.
It is designed to offer a privileged form of partnership now,
irrespective of the exact nature of the future relationship with the
EU.
ENP is based on the same kind of positive conditionality underpinning
the enlargement process. We agree Action Plans with our partners
which set out the path to a closer relationship. Differentiation is
key – each country’s Action Plan responds to its particular needs and
capacities. In addition, progress is rewarded with greater incentives
and benefits. Only as our partners fulfil their commitments to
strengthen the rule of law, democracy and respect for human rights;
promote market-oriented economic reforms; and cooperate on key
foreign policy objectives such as counter-terrorism and
non-proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, will we offer an
even deeper relationship.
Knowing the important role Sweden has played in the Northern
Dimension, I should point out that ENP is coherent with and
complementary to other processes in which we participate with our
partners. The principle of differentiation applies to our relations
with all our partners. With each one we promote our mutual goals in
ways specific to that country.
Questions have been raised as to whether the incentives on offer are
sufficient to encourage reform, and whether this is not simply a
repackaging of old policies in new clothes. My response is two-fold.
First, the impetus for meaningful reform must always come from
within. If that desire is not there, no amount of external assistance
or pressure will build sustainable reform. That is why the EU
believes in encouraging not imposing reform. Second, the EU’s offer
through ENP is not a second-best option to enlargement, but rather a
highly-desirable step-change in our relations offering substantive
benefits to all involved.
ENP has enabled us to tackle some of our citizens’ most pressing
concerns, like energy supplies, migration, and security.
1) Energy
Energy has been an important component of ENP since its inception.
But the events at the beginning of the year between Russia, Moldova
and Ukraine were a wake-up call, reminding us that energy security
needs to be even higher on our political agenda.
We need to continue to pursue close energy cooperation with our
partners in Eastern Europe, South Caucasus, and the Mediterranean. In
all my visits to neighbourhood countries, including Ukraine last week
and the South Caucasus last month, energy features heavily.
ENP promotes integration with Europe’s energy market and helps to
create the regulatory environment in which private sector investment
in infrastructure can take place. It also helps the countries
concerned come in line with European standards and norms.
In 2006 we will be boosting our energy cooperation as part of a
broader EU effort on energy supply – which will be outlined in the
Commission’s Green Paper tomorrow.
2) Migration
Migration is a highly sensitive issue for EU public opinion. In
uncertain times, it is understandable that our citizens are worried
about employment and increased competition for jobs.
Europe needs migration. Our populations are getting smaller and
growing older.
Through ENP we are trying to manage migration better: welcoming those
migrants we need for our economic and social well-being, while
clamping down on illegal immigration.
Throughout our neighbourhood we support projects to strengthen
institutional capacities; improve border controls; upgrade reception
facilities for asylum applicants and refugees; and fight illegal
immigration and people trafficking. We are also helping to build
institutions that enforce the rule of law and promote respect for
human rights.
3) Security
We are also using the ENP Action Plans to help increase security. We
have fostered practical cooperation between Israel and the
Palestinian Authority on issues such as trade, energy and transport.
Increasing cooperation and economic growth are absolutely vital for a
sustainable solution to the Middle East conflict. We will continue
these actions with the new Palestinian government, providing it seeks
peace by peaceful means, recognises the state of Israel and respects
its international commitments.
The border assistance mission to Moldova and Ukraine is designed to
contribute to resolving the long-running sore of the Transnistria
conflict. And the Action Plans we are currently discussing with
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia will address issues relating to
Nagorno-Karabakh and Georgia’s internal conflicts.
4) Stability
An important part of ENP is the commitment partner governments make
to political reform. We are offering extra financial assistance to
those countries making real progress in implementing political
reforms and promoting human rights.
ENP also promotes economic and social reform, both for reasons of
solidarity, but also because we want stability in our neighbourhood
and thus added security for ourselves. So we are tackling poverty
through employment creation schemes; funding health and education
projects; and promoting economic development by improving the trade
and investment environment and stimulating small businesses and
entrepreneurs.
Through the Anna Lindh Euro-Mediterranean Foundation, we are working
to build bridged between different peoples and cultures. As recent
events have shown, this must remain an important focus of our
attention. Here we can build on the great experience and credibility
of our member states, particularly Sweden.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
We hope to expand full participation in ENP to Belarus, Libya and
Syria. But the political conditions are not yet ripe. Will the
elections in Belarus in less than two weeks pave the way for
increased democracy and so participation in ENP? Unfortunately, the
signs are not good. Until that day we have to look for alternative
ways of fostering the conditions for democracy. Over the last year we
have found innovative ways to channel assistance, such as the daily
broadcasts produced by Deutsche Welle, and our support for the
European Humanities University in Vilnius. Last week our new 2
million project for independent television and radio broadcasting
began. We will continue our commitment to the Belarusian people,
whatever the results of the elections, for democratic change is a
long term project which requires sustained commitment from us all.
We hope that after its elections at the end of this month Ukraine
will be in a position to take its cooperation with the EU still
further. We would like to do more, like moving towards a free trade
area as soon as Ukraine joins the WTO and finalising visa
facilitation and readmission.
Ladies and Gentlemen,
I am grateful for Sweden’s continued support for the implementation
of the European Neighbourhood Policy and I look forward to discussing
with Minister Freivalds and the Riksdag later today how we can go
further together.
Our task is to build on ENP’s early achievements and to make it a
truly beneficial policy for both our neighbours and ourselves. As we
deliver results we are not only benefiting our neighbours, but also
demonstrating to our citizens that the European Union does bring them
an added value.
On the eve of international women’s day, let me leave you with the
words of one of Sweden’s most outstanding women, Anna Lindh, `For
democracy to work in our society and passivity to disappear,’ she
said, `people must first come together and learn to work together for
common goals.’ We owe it to her memory, and the memory of Olof Palme,
the 20th anniversary of whose death was last week, not only to work
together, but to achieve those common goals.
Thank you.

ARMENIAN GOVERNMENT PROVIDES ABOUT 23 MLN DRAMS TO SOLVE PROBLEM OF
SCHOOL BUILDINGS IN FOUR BORDER VILLAGES OF SYUNIK MARZ
YEREVAN, MARCH 9, NOYAN TAPAN. At the March 9 sitting, the Armenian
government took a decision to provide 22 mln 900 thousand drams (about
51 thousand USD) from its 2006 reserve fund to the Syunik regional
administration for the purpose of purchasing residential buildings in
a number of border villages and their reconstruction as schools in the
future. The indicated sum of money was distributed among the following
villages of the marz: Shishkert (3 mln drams), Shamb (3 mln 900
thousand drams), Ltsen (13 mln drams) and Srashen (3 mln drams).
According to the RA Government Information and PR Department, the
government also approved the amounts of funds to be allocated for
providing free textbooks to pupils of primary classes, for
reconstruction of military science classrooms and purchase of
textbooks for pupils of the inner Diaspora schools within the
comprehensive programs’ implementation assistance framework of the
2006 RA state budget.

TURKISH DIASPORA FORMS NEW PLATFORMS AGAINST ARMENIAN GENOCIDE CLAIMS
ABHaber, Belgium
March 14 2006
The Turkish diaspora is stepping up efforts to rescind recognition of
Armenian genocide claims and to win support against its proponents
ahead of April 24, the date Armenians say is the anniversary of the
so-called genocide.
While Turkish associations in France joined forces under an umbrella
committee to overturn the 2001 French law recognizing the Armenian
genocide claims, the Workers’ Party (IP) gathered over the weekend
in Istanbul to outline plans for the Talat Pasha Movement, which
will include a mass rally in Berlin on Saturday to denounce the
Armenian claims.
The Turkish groups’ decision to put forward a unified response to
French recognition of Armenian genocide claims came during a meeting on
Sunday with the participation of representatives from 10 associations
under the leadership of the Anatolian Culture Center and the Kemalist
Thought Association.
Besides starting an initiative to bring about the repeal of a the
French law that recognizes the Armenian genocide, the umbrella
committee decided to launch an initiative to give concrete answers
“based on historic realities to foreign claims that aim at damaging
Turkish independence.” They also decided to conduct programs to
inform and inspire Turkish society against Armenian claims and to
inform French society about the realities of the issue.
Representatives of Turkish associations in France stressed at the
meeting that they are not against the existence of Armenians but aim
at making the historic realities supported by documents an issue of
discussion for French citizens.
Turkish associations also stated they will give priority to the
publishing of a book in French. They also announced that they will
gather again next month to view strategies and activities that will
be followed during the campaigns.
At a press conference last week, the groups organizing the committee
meeting demanded that the French Parliament’s recognition of the
alleged genocide in 2001 be reversed, saying that judging history
was up to historians not lawmakers, making reference to an earlier
statement by French President Jacques Chirac.
As part of the activities to overturn Armenian claims, the organizers
of the Talat Pasha Movement met over the weekend in Istanbul to
finalize preparations to launch the movement in Berlin beginning
on Saturday.
A mass demonstration aimed at denouncing Armenian genocide claims, to
be held in Berlin under the slogan “Take your flag and come to Berlin,”
has caused tension between Turkey and Germany. Flyers announcing the
movement read, “If Western capitals don’t want to be burned like Paris,
unjust treatment towards Turkey must end.”
IP leader Dogu Perincek and former Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus
(TRNC) President Rauf Denktas will lead the planned demonstration
with the participation of many representatives from Turkish political
parties and European non-governmental organizations (NGOs) within the
framework of the Talat Pasha Movement. The main aim of the group is to
put pressure on the German Parliament to remove official recognition
of the Armenian genocide claims. The movement also aims to attract
some 5 million supporters, including some 1,000 from Turkey.
Denktas is expected to lay flowers at the place in Berlin where
Talat Pasha was assassinated on March 15, 1921 by an Armenian, and
an assembly will gather in a memorial for Talat Pasha on Sunday.
In an effort to hamper these efforts, the German Embassy in Ankara
turned down yesterday visa applications for some who might be intending
to participate in the demonstration.
The same group last year also held a demonstration to mark the
82nd anniversary of the Treaty of Lausanne. At that demonstration
Perincek lashed out at a decision by Switzerland to punish those who
deny the Armenian genocide claims, saying, “The Armenian genocide is
an international lie,” after which the prosecutor from Winterthur
opened an investigation into Perincek and the incident turned into
a diplomatic crisis between Turkey and Switzerland.
?id=2375

STRONG WINDS OF LAST DAYS GREATLY DAMAGE COMMUNITIES OF VARDENIS
Noyan Tapan
Mar 14 2006
GAVAR, MARCH 14, NOYAN TAPAN. As the Noyan Tapan correspondent informs
from the Gegharkunik marz, wind of 27 metres/second strength was
fixed in the city of Vardenis during the last days, as a consequence
of what roofs of many-storied buildings, detached houses as well as
subsidiary constructions and a number of enterprises were damaged. The
wind destroyed transmission lines as well, as a result of what the
city had no electricity for some time.
An alarm about the damages of the wind was also got from the
communities of Shatvan and Norabak of the Vardenis region. The created
commission defines the sizes of the damage: 150 applications have
already been presented from the damaged farmsteads.
According to Hamlet Gasparian, the Chief of the Vardenis Mayor’s
Office Architectural Department, the old buildings were mainly damaged,
the owners of which are in socially needy state.
The village of Yeranos was also considerably damaged as a result
of the strong wind. According to community head Gagik Khansanamian,
according to preliminary data, the size of damage made about 19 mln
drams (about 42 thousand U.S.
dollars). Particularly, the roofs of the Yeranos secondary school No1
and 5 detached houses were destroyed of the wind. The wind destroyed
4 gravestones of the graveyard as well.

DM: PARTICIPATION OF AZERBAIJANI ARMED FORCES IN ANY TRAINING IN THE TERRITORY OF ARMENIA IS IMPOSSIBLE
Author: E. Javadova
TREND Information, Azerbaijan
March 14 2006
Participation of Azerbaijani Armed Forces in any training in the
territory of Armenia is impossible, Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense
assistant of the press service Ilgar Verdiyev told Trend.
Military training within the frames of NATO’s Partnership for Peace
program will be held in May, Armenian agency Panarmenia told,
in reference to the Armenian deputy minister of defense, Artur
Agabekyan. Agabekyan stated that the Azerbaijan Armed Forces might
participate in the training among 20 other countries.
He said that Armenian government is ready to accept those
representatives of Azerbaijan Armed Forces who would wish to
participate at the NATO training.
The Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense regards visit of Azerbaijan Armed
forces representatives to Armenia as impossible. Verdiyev stated that
Armenia is only formally participating in the NATO training under
Partnership for Peace. “In the course of year Armenia hosts only 1
exercise of this program, which is completely of formal character.
Armenia is an occupant country and by participating in this program
it wants to show itself as a peaceful state,” he said.
Even if Azerbaijan Ministry of Defense will receive any official
invitation to participate in training in the territory of that country
it will be declined, he concluded.

WEST REPORTEDLY URGING ARMENIAN, AZERI LEADERS TO FINAL KARABAKH ACCORD IN 2006
Haykakan Zhamanak, Armenia
Oct 15 2005
“Peace soldiers”
While the opposition and pro-government officials are commenting on
the coincidence of the Armenian constitutional referendum and the
Azerbaijani parliamentary election (both will take place in November),
our sources say that the terms were fixed as a result of consultations
with the West. The reason for this choice is a desire to avoid waste
of time in the Karabakh talks. That is to say, it was clear from the
outset that in the pre-election and post-election periods, Ilham
Aliyev will not be able to take part in the Karabakh talks and in
order not to have such a break because of the Armenian constitutional
referendum, they decided to hold the referendum in November as well.
Incidentally, our sources say that the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen
and the two presidents agreed to intensify the Karabakh talks from
January. It becomes clear that Robert Kocharyan and Ilham Aliyev feel
more confident due to this agreement. The logic of this confidence
is if the West is going to provoke a revolutionary mood in Armenia
or Azerbaijan in November or to support the opposition very much,
what is the use of making the January working schedule with Kocharyan
and Aliyev?
According to our sources, the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen put a
condition to the Armenian and Azerbaijani presidents to sign a document
on the Karabakh settlement during 2006 and Kocharyan and Aliyev agreed
to this condition. The co-chairmen told Armenian president that the
delay of settling the conflict would be destructive for Armenia as
after the functioning of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline, the
balance of forces will change in favour of Azerbaijan that may have
serious consequences for Armenia.
Moreover, after the Karabakh settlement, the construction of the
Iran-Armenia-Europe gas pipeline will become highly realistic and
will bring billions of dollars in income to Armenia and will be a
definite counter-balance to the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan [oil pipeline].
Our sources say that after the signing of a peace agreement, both
parties were promised investments and direct aid.
It is also expected that about 10b dollars will be given to Armenia if
events develop in this way. According to our information, the world
community do not even forget about personal encouragement of the
two presidents. If the Karabakh issue is settled, the two presidents
will be granted security guarantees for life and will be nominated
for the Nobel Peace Prize.
However, it is also obvious that though Yasir Arafat and Iskhak Rabin
were awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for signing an agreement on the
Arab-Israeli conflict settlement in 1994, the conflict has not been
settled up to today and Arafat and Rabin have not only left the
political scene but also dead.

IN ARMENIAN GENOCIDE TURKEY SHOULD FOLLOW GERMANY’S EXAMPLE OF HOLOCAUST
ArmInfo News Agency, Armenia
Oct 13 2005
YEREVAN, OCTOBER 13. ARMINFO. The recognition of the early XX events
in Ottoman Turkey meets the interests of Turkey itself, the head of
the European Commission delegation to Georgia and Armenia, Ambassador
Torben Holtze says in a talk with ARMINFO.
The events are the problem of both Armenia and Turkey. Turkey should
follow the example of Germany who recognized the Holocaust after
WWII. What heppened in 1915 is not acceptable to civilized societies
and to the EU in particular. Turkey’s recognizing the events is a
very complex issue. This is not just a matter of recognition. The
Turkish authorities say: you can adopt a resolution on the events,
make statements but you cannot change our people’s understanding of
the issue, says Holtze.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY, PRAGUE, CZECH REPUBLIC
_________________________________________ ____________________
RFE/RL Iran Report
Vol. 8, No. 40, 12 October 2005
A Review of Developments in Iran Prepared by the Regional Specialists
of RFE/RL’s Newsline Team
************************************************************
HEADLINES:
* SYSTEMIC CHANGES COULD WEAKEN ELECTED OFFICIALS, BALANCE
GOVERNMENT
* ARMED FORCES HOLD MANEUVERS IN NORTHWEST
* WOMEN TO DRIVE SCOOTERS AGAIN IN TEHRAN
* TEHRAN AMONG WORST PLACES TO LIVE
* JOURNALIST COMPLAINS OF SHOOT-TO-KILL POLICY
* HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS DEMAND LAWYER’S FREEDOM
* THREE KURDISH JOURNALISTS INDICTED IN IRAN
* STOCK EXCHANGE HAS LONG-TERM DIFFICULTIES
* IRAN MIGHT RUN OUT OF OIL IN 90 YEARS
* U.S. REITERATES CONCERN FOR IRAN’S PURSUIT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS
* U.S. URGES RUSSIA TO HALT NUCLEAR EXCHANGE WITH IRAN
* IRAN OPEN TO RESUMING DISCUSSIONS WITH EU
* NEW PRESIDENT’S DIPLOMACY SPARKS CONTROVERSY
* FOREIGN MINISTER VISITS SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS
* IRAQI PRESIDENT: NO IRANIAN INTERFERENCE
* EXPERTS SAY INFRARED BOMBS USED IN IRAQ CANNOT BE HOMEMADE
************************************************************
SYSTEMIC CHANGES COULD WEAKEN ELECTED OFFICIALS, BALANCE GOVERNMENT.
The formal decision-making apparatus in the Iranian government has
undergone a significant change in the last few days. This change,
which gives the unelected Expediency Council supervisory powers over
the executive, legislative, and judicial branches of government, has
been met with criticism from members of parliament. This development
reduces the power of elected officials, but it could also reflect an
attempt to restore balance to a system heavily dominated by younger
hard-liners.
Enhanced Council Powers
Mohsen Rezai, secretary of the Expediency Council, was quoted
on 2 October by “Sharq” — as well as “Aftab-i Yazd,” “Etemad,”
“Farhang-i Ashti,” and “Hemayat” — as saying that Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei recently approved the council’s oversight
of the system’s policies. In other words, he said, the council
will supervise the three branches of government and report on their
performance to the supreme leader.
Rezai said Khamenei wanted the council to perform this
function some eight years earlier, but the necessary laws did not
exist. About one year ago the council began work on the required
statute, under which the heads of the executive, legislative, and
judicial branches must comply with whatever the Expediency Council
says. Khamenei signed off on this about two months ago, according to
Rezai.
“Sharq” cited Expediency Council Chairman Ayatollah Ali-Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani as saying previously that the supreme leader can
delegate some of his responsibilities to others (per Article 110 of
the constitution), and Rezai said this is what is taking place. Rezai
referred specifically to oversight of the system’s general
policies, the fourth economic-development plan, and the 20-year plan.
This appears to be a significant enhancement of the
Expediency Council’s powers. When the council was created in
February 1988, its primary purpose was to adjudicate in disputes over
legislation between the Guardians Council and the parliament. Soon
after its creation, it began to frame legislation — something that
ended only after 100 parliamentarians complained to the supreme
leader. According to Article 112 of the Iranian Constitution, the
council advises the supreme leader, and he consults with it when he
wants to revise the constitution.
Fourth Branch?
Some members of parliament were quick to criticize the
granting of new powers to the Expediency Council. Tabriz
parliamentary representative Akbar Alami warned against making the
council a fourth branch of government, “Etemad” and “Farhang-i Ashti”
reported on 3 October. Alami said the legislature has the lead in
national affairs. He cited Articles 6, 56, and 62, which say,
respectively, that national affairs must be administered on the basis
of elections; the people exercise sovereignty based on the separation
of powers; and the people’s representatives are elected directly
by secret ballot. Alami also cited Articles 71 and 76, which say the
legislature can establish laws and the legislature has the right to
examine and investigate national affairs. Alami referred to Article
90, which states that an individual can forward a complaint about one
of the branches of government to the legislature, and the legislature
must investigate this complaint.
On the basis of the constitution, therefore, only the
legislature can supervise the legislature, Alami said. “If this
process continues, the principle of national sovereignty and its
representation through the parliament will be exposed to serious
danger,” he said.
Another legislator, Reza Talai-Nik of Bahar and Kabudarahang,
said that Article 110 only applies to supervision over the
system’s macro-policies, “Etemad” reported. “It is the
responsibility of the Expediency Council to decide to what extent the
country is moving within the context of the macro-policies of the
system and evaluating those policies,” he explained. “However, this
does not mean supervision over executive affairs. Supervising the
executive affairs is part of the responsibilities of the legislative
power.”
Vehicle For Influence
The Expediency Council, which Hashemi-Rafsanjani has chaired
for approximately 15 years, is a vehicle for his political influence
and power. But some observers believe that Hashemi-Rafsanjani and
Khamenei are political competitors, and that Khamenei threw his
weight behind Hashemi-Rafsanjani’s adversary in the June
presidential race. This most recent development argues against this
interpretation of power relationships in Iran. Nor is this the first
time Khamenei has granted significant power to the Expediency
Council. In August 2001, for example, Khamenei had the Expediency
Council determine the circumstances under which President Mohammad
Khatami could be inaugurated.
Perhaps the greater significance of the Expediency
Council’s new powers is that it is another case in which an
unelected institution has been given power over elected ones.
Moreover, it could reflect an effort to restore some sort of balance
to the country’s politics, in which hard-liners have come to
dominate the executive and legislative branches. (Bill Samii)
ARMED FORCES HOLD MANEUVERS IN NORTHWEST. More than 15,000 members of
Iran’s regular armed forces participated in the Joshan exercises
in northwestern Iran that began on 30 September, Fars News Agency
reported. Participants in the three-day exercises in West Azerbaijan
and East Azerbaijan provinces included electronic-warfare,
helicopter, artillery, and engineering units, as well as air-force
bombers. Brigadier General Bakhtiari, whom Fars described as the
spokesman for the exercises, said their aim was to improve combat
readiness and help assess officers and noncommissioned officers.
Bakhtiari said before the exercises began that deployment
capabilities, speed and mobility, and irregular-warfare training
would also be tested. (Bill Samii)
WOMEN TO DRIVE SCOOTERS AGAIN IN TEHRAN. Mohsen Ansari, head of the
Tehran traffic police, said on 4 October that Iranian women will be
allowed to drive motor scooters soon and can apply for permits, Radio
Farda reported. In contrast with their Saudi Arabian counterparts,
Radio Farda reported, Iranian women are allowed to drive automobiles.
Women have not been allowed to drive motor scooters since the 1979
Islamic Revolution until the present because of the possibility that
their “curves” might be exposed while doing so, but since
approximately 1991 their presence on motorcycles or bicycles as
passengers has been tolerated. Women’s motorcycling classes were
initiated in Iran three years ago, Radio Farda reported, but they
were closed by the country’s leadership. (Bill Samii)
TEHRAN AMONG WORST PLACES TO LIVE. In a survey of 127 major
international cities, Tehran was rated one of the worst places to
live, Radio Farda reported on 4 October. With a 52 percent rating
from the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), most aspects of living in
Tehran are described as “severely restricted.” The EIU survey
considered more than 40 factors in five categories — “stability,
health care, culture and environment, education, and infrastructure.”
The Canadian city of Vancouver was the best place to live, and cities
in Australia, North America, and Western Europe topped the list.
Cities in the Middle East and Africa were the worst places to live.
Tehran was at the top of the 10 worst, scoring higher than Douala,
Cameroon; Harare, Zimbabwe; Abidjan, Ivory Coast; Phnom Penh,
Cambodia; Lagos, Nigeria; Karachi, Pakistan; Dhaka, Bangladesh;
Algiers, Algeria; and Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea. (Bill Samii)
JOURNALIST COMPLAINS OF SHOOT-TO-KILL POLICY. Journalist Amir Abbas
Fakhravar, who has been on prison furlough since June, recently
discussed the possibility of being sent back to prison, Radio Farda
reported on 4 October. He told Radio Farda that after the June
presidential election he and several friends decided they would not
return to prison. He said his sister recently went to court to deal
with the case of her imprisoned husband, Mehrdad Heidarpur, and the
officials there informed her that the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps
and the Basij have been authorized to shoot Fakhravar if he tries to
elude them. (Bill Samii)
HUMAN RIGHTS GROUPS DEMAND LAWYER’S FREEDOM. Radio Farda reported
on 3 October that several Iranian and international human rights
organizations are demanding the release of jailed lawyer Abdolfattah
Soltani, who was detained some two months ago and is in solitary
confinement in Evin prison. Attorney Mohammad Ali Dadkhah told Radio
Farda that Soltani has not been allowed to meet with his lawyers, in
contravention of the law. Dadkhah added that, as far as he knows,
Soltani was allowed to see his family the previous week. The human
rights groups believe that Soltani’s prolonged detention is
connected with the case of Zahra Kazemi, a Canadian photojournalist
who was beaten to death at Evin in summer 2003 (see “RFE/RL Iran
Report,” 14, 21, and 28 July 2003). (Bill Samii)
THREE KURDISH JOURNALISTS INDICTED IN IRAN. The public prosecutor in
the city of Sanandaj has issued indictments for three Iranian-Kurdish
journalists who are in detention, the Iranian Labor News Agency
(ILNA) reported on 3 October. Attorney Abbas Jamali said the warrants
for Ejlal Qavami, Said Saedi, and Roya Tolui refer them to the
Revolutionary Court. Jamali said his clients — Qavami and Saedi —
have been detained for 60 days already, and they are accused of
acting against national security. (Bill Samii)
STOCK EXCHANGE HAS LONG-TERM DIFFICULTIES. Iranian commentators have
recently referred to a “crisis” on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The
slump is particularly evident because the market’s key index
(Tepix) rose by nearly 80 percent between March 2001 and April 2003,
while the indices of exchanges in Frankfurt, London, New York, Paris,
and Tokyo tumbled by 40-70 percent. The gains in Iranian securities
had continued until recently, too, culminating in a tripling of the
key Tehran index in the period from 2001 to May 2005.
The downturn has been attributed to uncertainty over the
future based on the nuclear question, as well as to President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad’s seemingly negative attitude toward the stock
market. These factors might disappear or be resolved, but at least
one economist has noted that the Iranian stock exchange suffers from
deeply entrenched problems. These will be more difficult to resolve.
A Slow Start
The Tehran Stock Exchange began dealing in the shares of a
few private banks and companies, as well as treasury bonds and
state-backed securities, in 1968. By the 1979 Islamic Revolution, 105
firms were listed on the exchange. That number fell to 56 after the
revolution, as private banks were nationalized and enterprises
belonging to the royal family were expropriated. Islamic regulations
against interest payments, Marxist hostility to capitalist
institutions, and the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq War all stifled activity on
the stock exchange, economist Jahangir Amuzegar wrote in “Middle East
Economic Survey” in May.
The exchange enjoyed a brief surge from 1994 through 1997
before tapering off. When the annual money supply increased and there
was a mild recession in other prospective areas of investment,
Amuzegar explains, there was a “meteoric boom.” The Privatization
Agency’s initial public offerings (IPOs) contributed to this.
>From March 1999 to March 2003, the Tepix catapulted from 2,206 to
11,400, and trading increased from 1.7 billion shares to 7.9 billion
shares. The exchange hit a high of 13,836 in December 2004.
Indeed, the market was so heated that in August 2003, the
head of the stock exchange forbade any price increases for a two-week
period.
New Concerns
In late September and early October, many observers expressed
concerns over the state of the Iranian market. Hussein Abdeh-Tabrizi,
secretary-general of the stock exchange, hinted at a crisis,
“Farhang-i Ashti” reported on 5 October. Abdeh-Tabrizi said
uncertainty over the nuclear issue undermines investor confidence. He
also said the government and the exchange are trying to determine how
to support the stock market, and he added that offering shares in
state enterprises is one way to motivate prospective investors.
Moderation and Progress Party Secretary-General Mohammad
Baqer Nobakht argued that problems in the stock market are connected
with an unclear economic future, “Aftab-i Yazd” reported on 5
October. The government should stop repeating slogans and offer a
solution, Nobakht urged.
In the 2 October legislative session, Lahijan representative
Iraj Nadimi, rapporteur of the parliamentary Economic Committee,
called on the economy minister to explore the political roots of the
stock-market slump and take action, “Resalat” reported on 3 October.
Nadimi said previously that the legislature would look into the
causes of the market crisis in the coming fortnight, “Iran” newspaper
reported on 1 October. “At the present, the Iranian stock market is
facing some serious problems, and if the reasons for this situation
are not identified and tackled, its consequences will certainly
inflict harm on the country’s economy,” Nadimi said.
The 1 October report in “Iran” newspaper noted that the Tepix
had fallen almost 400 points in the previous two weeks. The paper
added that the head of the exchange, deputy Finance and Economic
Affairs Minister Tahmasb Mazaheri, and other officials had met to
discuss ways to restore normalcy to the market. Participants in the
meeting attributed the situation to “psychological factors” and
concern over the nuclear issue. They called for greater attention and
sensitivity to the issue by the government, they decided to ask major
shareholders to try to prop up purchases, and they considered asking
banks to offer incentives to purchasers of stocks.
Seeking A Government Commitment
An editorial in “Sharq” newspaper on 29 September warned that
if the current pattern continues, the Tepix will be 26 percent lower
than its high point in December 2004. “Sharq” said the trend in the
stock exchange can be reversed “only if the new government displays
an open and strong commitment to open economy by moving toward
privatization, [and] supporting investment.” The editorial also
recommended eliminating corruption and encouraging investment. The
government must prove its interest in “genuine reforms” rather than
“repeating the past,” the paper argued.
The English-language “Iran News” reported on 27 September
that the Iranian stock market was undergoing “one of the most serious
crises in its entire existence…[in the form of] a continuous slump
ever since last June’s presidential election.” The newspaper
reported that many investors are pulling out. “Iran News” attributed
the situation to the reasons described elsewhere: uncertainty,
concern over government plans, and the nuclear issue. The daily added
that investor confidence was further undermined by Economy Minister
Davud Danesh-Jafari’s failure to attend a monthly meeting of the
exchange’s high council.
But the impact of Ahmadinejad’s victory was being felt
just days after the election, in the face of reports that he had
compared the stock market unfavorably with gambling. His
representatives and state media said Ahmadinejad actually favors the
capital market and wants to expand it. And the president-elect
himself said he supported using the stock market to encourage
investment.
Deep-Seated Problems
Uncertainty over the nuclear issue persists. Moreover, this
question continues to adversely affect Iran’s relations with the
international community. These factors are likely to continue to have
a negative impact on investor confidence and the Tehran Stock
Exchange. Ahmadinejad, on the other hand, could implement economic
policies that restore people’s willingness to invest in the
market. This is not a certainty, however, as the president’s
recent comments indicate that he does not fully embrace the role of
an independent exchange. When he discussed economic affairs and the
stock market on 5 October, Ahmadinejad said market fluctuations can
be controlled because 80 percent of the issues belong to state
entities, state television reported.
More deeply entrenched factors suggest the stock exchange has
a risky future. Amuzegar writes in “Middle East Economic Survey” that
the exchange’s governance structure makes it a “virtual appendage
of the state” — its top decision-makers are government officials or
government appointees. Eighty percent of its market value is owned by
state organizations or parastatal institutions, such as the
foundations (bonyad). The exchange is small — of the 680,000
companies registered in the country, only 420 are listed on the
exchange. One hundred of those companies are totally inactive,
Amuzegar points out, and fewer than 200 are traded regularly.
There is a “perpetual imbalance between demand for shares and
their supply,” Amuzegar continues, and there is “insufficient
liquidity.” Furthermore, Western standards of transparency,
enforcement, self-regulation, and disclosure are absent. There is no
equivalent of a Securities and Exchange Commission that can enforce
rules or standards of accountability. On top of that, share prices
are susceptible to manipulation by speculators and others with
insider information or various forms of influence.
Finally, foreign participation remains “fairly limited.”
Foreigners are allowed to buy just 10 percent of any listed company,
and principal, dividends, and capital gains can only be repatriated
after thee years. (Bill Samii)
IRAN MIGHT RUN OUT OF OIL IN 90 YEARS. A conference on the Iranian
nuclear program, “Iran in the 21st Century: Energy and Security,”
took place in Madrid on 3 October, the Islamic Republic News Agency
(IRNA) reported. Morteza Alviri, Iran’s ambassador to Spain and
the former mayor of Tehran, said the conference is a good opportunity
for the improvement of bilateral ties.
Speaking at the same event, Deputy Petroleum Minister Hadi
Nejad-Husseinian said Iran’s oil reserves could be exhausted in
90 years, IRNA reported. Nejad-Husseinian said Iran’s oil
reserves stand at 137 billion barrels and its natural-gas reserves at
29 trillion cubic meters. He said the Middle East will become the
world’s biggest supplier of energy, and that is why “the ruling
neo-conservatives in the U.S.” want to dominate the region. That also
explains U.S. hostility to Iran, he said. He expressed the hope that
Europe will be a more active player in the Iranian energy sector.
Speaking at the same event, Deputy Foreign Minister Ali-Reza
Moayeri said Iran will continue with its nuclear program, IRNA
reported. (Bill Samii)
U.S. REITERATES CONCERN FOR IRAN’S PURSUIT OF NUCLEAR WEAPONS.
U.S. State Department spokesman Scott McCormack said at a 4 October
press briefing that Iran must not be allowed to have nuclear weapons,
Radio Farda reported. McCormack dismissed Tehran’s claims that it
only seeks the peaceful use of nuclear energy, saying its “objective
is to pursue nuclear weapons.” (Bill Samii)
U.S. URGES RUSSIA TO HALT NUCLEAR EXCHANGE WITH IRAN. Speaking to the
UN General Assembly’s Disarmament Committee on 3 October, acting
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for arms control Stephen Rademaker
said that all governments should halt nuclear trade with Iran in
light of the resolution adopted by the International Atomic Energy
Agency on 24 September stressing Tehran’s noncompliance with the
Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, AP and other media reported. “We
think it’s self-evident, for example, that in the face of such a
finding, no government should permit new nuclear transfers to Iran
and all ongoing nuclear projects should be frozen,” Rademaker said.
Meanwhile, “an informed source within the Kremlin,” told
RIA-Novosti on 3 October that Russia considers “direct threats or
excessive pressure on Iran” to be “inefficient.” Moscow is concerned
that pressure on Tehran could eventually “push Iran out of the legal
frameworks,” the source said. It added that if confrontation around
the Iranian nuclear program escalates, Russia could suffer more than
Iran because its contract “provides jobs to tens of thousands of
people and hundreds of enterprises,” RIA-Novosti reported. (Victor
Yassman)
IRAN OPEN TO RESUMING DISCUSSIONS WITH EU. President Mahmud
Ahmadinejad said in a 5 October assessment of the first 38 days of
his presidency that Iran is not opposed to negotiations on the
nuclear issue, state television reported. However, he added, Iran
will not accept negotiations that are meant to deprive Iranians of
their rights. Ahmadinejad said European countries other than the EU-3
(France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) have shown an interest in
discussing the nuclear issue with Iran, and these proposals are under
review. Turning to the country’s foreign policy in general,
Ahmadinejad said Iranian diplomats defend the country’s rights
confidently.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Hamid Reza Assefi said on
4 October that Iran is willing to resume discussions with the
European Union if there are no preconditions, Mehr News Agency
reported. He said Iran must see acts of goodwill from the Europeans
and they must act like they really want to hold discussions with
Tehran.
One day earlier, foreign ministers of the Council of the
European Union met and discussed Iran. They fully support the
governing board of the International Atomic Energy Agency’s
(IAEA) 24 September resolution, and they urged Iran to implement
measures called for by the IAEA, including suspension of all
fuel-cycle activities. The council reaffirmed its support for a
negotiated solution within the framework of the November 2004 Paris
Agreement.
Javier Solana, the European Union’s high representative
for common foreign and security policy, suggested on 3 October that
the EU is prepared to restart talks if Iran complies with calls to
halt some nuclear-related activities. “If, taking the international
community’s view into account, Iran is ready to halt
uranium-enrichment work, the EU, for its part, will be ready for a
resumption of talks with Tehran,” Interfax news agency quoted him as
saying. Solana said the UN Security Council should increase the
IAEA’s powers to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue. “We regard
Iran’s refusal to carry out its obligations under the Treaty on
Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons as a very serious question, and
we want the UN Security Council to widen IAEA’s powers to resolve
it,” Solana said. An EU-Russia summit is scheduled to begin in London
on 4 October, and the Iranian nuclear program is reportedly on the
agenda.
The day after the IAEA governing board passed a resolution
criticizing Iran for its inadequate cooperation and transparency,
Iranian legislators called on their government to suspend its
voluntary implementation of the Additional Protocol of the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty. Legislators put the item at the top of the
parliamentary agenda, but they are still debating the issue.
Kazem Jalali, rapporteur for the National Security and
Foreign Policy Committee, told state radio on 3 October that some
legislators do not believe there is a need for such a bill, because
the government’s implementation of the Additional Protocol
without parliamentary ratification was improper. On 2 October, Jalali
told IRNA that the issue was debated extensively. (Bill Samii)
NEW PRESIDENT’S DIPLOMACY SPARKS CONTROVERSY. On the sidelines of
a pro-nuclear-power rally in Tehran on 7 October, Iranian government
spokesman Gholam Hussein Elham said all the country’s officials
agree with Tehran’s conduct of nuclear negotiations and its
general interaction with other countries, the Islamic Republic News
Agency (IRNA) reported. “With the exception of those who disagree
with the Islamic system in principle,” Elham added, “there is no
disagreement among political parties or groups that conduct their
activities within the law and believe in the principle of the Islamic
system in Iran.” However, the general lack of diplomatic finesse
displayed by President Mahmud Ahmadinejad and his new administration
has caught observers by surprise, and the Iranians’ actions and
comments on the nuclear issue have alienated foreign capitals that
previously were positively disposed toward Tehran.
Observers in Iran are expressing concern about this turn of
events. On the one hand, the Iranian decision-making apparatus is not
closed, so these concerns could have an impact on governmental
actions. On the other hand, Ahmadinejad’s actions appear to have
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s approval, so anticipation
of a reversal may be unrealistic.
Ahmadinejad’s Lack Of Finesse
Ahmadinejad’s style has been evident since August, when
Tehran first rejected a European Union proposal on the nuclear issue.
The EU proposal ruled out Iran’s enriching uranium and
reprocessing plutonium, recommended allowing Iran to purchase nuclear
fuel and send it elsewhere for disposal, and called for a
continuation of Iran’s voluntary suspension of uranium-conversion
activities. Other aspects of the proposal focused on industrial and
technological cooperation, energy issues, and intellectual property
rights.
The international community was eager to hear
Ahmadinejad’s counterproposal when he addressed the UN General
Assembly on 17 September. However, rather than moving the
negotiations forward, Ahmadinejad aired grievances relating to events
that took place more than half a century ago. He also discussed his
conspiracy theory about the 11 September 2001 terrorist attacks and
accused the United States of creating and supporting Al-Qaeda.
Ahmadinejad called for a nuclear-weapons-free Middle East and
expressed concern about “nuclear apartheid.” He offered a “serious
partnership” with other countries’ private and public sectors
implementing uranium-enrichment programs. Ahmadinejad was adamant
about Iran’s intention to master the nuclear-fuel cycle.
One week later, the IAEA governing board issued a resolution
calling on Tehran to be more cooperative and transparent, and hinting
that referral to the UN Security Council could be next.
In a purported interview that appeared in the 1 October
“Khaleej Times” newspaper, based in the United Arab Emirates,
Ahmadinejad was quoted as saying that Iran has the right to use
nuclear energy peacefully, and the production or use of nuclear
weapons is forbidden by Islam. He purportedly stressed that Iran has
been cooperating with the IAEA. “But if Iran’s case is sent to
the Security Council,” he was quoted as saying, “we will respond by
many ways for example by holding back on oil sales or limiting
inspections of our nuclear facilities.”
The same day, however, the presidential office rejected the
authenticity of the interview, IRNA reported. The presidential office
said Ahmadinejad never gave an oral or written interview to the
newspaper. “Such a claim is nothing more than a mere fabrication, so
we call all domestic media to be aware and show vigilance in dealing
with propaganda plots hatched by foreign media,” the statement from
Ahmadinejad’s office said.
Critical Rivals
Ahmadinejad’s foreign-policy team — Supreme National
Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani and Foreign Minister Mustafa
Mottaki — has been unfavorably compared with the intellectual but
feckless team assembled by former President Hojatoleslam Mohammad
Khatami. The latter team included experienced individuals such as
Foreign Minister Kamal Kharrazi and Supreme National Security Council
Secretary Hojatoleslam Hassan Rohani. These officials stressed
perceived national interests rather than ideology and nationalism
when conducting business, therefore conveying the impression that
they were rational actors with whom others could do business.
Iranian observers are becoming increasingly aware of the
negative impact of Ahmadinejad’s actions, and they are
criticizing his diplomatic efforts.
Expediency Council Secretary Mohsen Rezai told reporters on 1
October that Ahmadinejad’s 17 September proposal at the UN was
inadvisable and unnecessary, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA)
reported. “When Iran didn’t accept the Europeans’ proposal,
the latter should have amended it,” Rezai said. “There was no need
for Iran to make a proposal to the Europeans.” Rezai said this might
have been a diplomatic mistake, but if the issue is managed well,
then “America and Europe will be the main losers if our case is
referred to the Security Council.”
The chairman of the Expediency Council, Ayatollah Ali-Akbar
Hashemi-Rafsanjani, said in his 30 September sermon at the Tehran
Friday prayers that Iran is determined to defend its right to use
nuclear technology and it will not be intimidated into surrendering,
state radio reported. He said Iran should talk with its opponents —
which he identified as “America, Europe, and others” — and achieve
trust. “I would like to let the [Iranian] managers in this sector
know that here you need diplomacy and not slogans,” he said.
Hashemi-Rafsanjani called for prudence, patience, and wisdom, while
avoiding provocations. He said this issue must be resolved while
protecting Iran’s rights.
Time For ‘Crisis Diplomacy’
Criticism from Rezai and Hashemi-Rafsanjani is not altogether
unexpected. They were Ahmadinejad’s rivals in the presidential
election. Rezai may have expected a cabinet post or Supreme National
Security Council position in exchange for his stepping out of the
presidential race at the last minute. Furthermore, the 49- year-old
Ahmadinejad’s blunt, confrontational style is very unlike that of
the much older and more pragmatic Hashemi-Rafsanjani.
But there has been criticism from other corners as well.
Tabriz parliamentary representative Akbar Alami, who serves on the
Foreign Policy and National Security Committee, said of the Supreme
National Security Committee: “People who until very recently did not
have any knowledge about the nuclear dossier and did not even know
what nuclear energy was have now become high-ranking experts in the
nuclear dossier of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” He also criticized
some of his colleagues in the legislature, “Aftab-i Yazd” reported on
29 September. He accused some parliamentarians of trying to block
discussion of the nuclear issue, saying they are acting on behalf of
the Supreme National Security Council.
A commentary in the pro-reform “Sharq” on 2 October noted
that Iran is facing an “atmosphere of distrust” in the international
arena. The Ahmadinejad administration’s eastward-oriented foreign
policy has proven to be ineffective in the nuclear case, the daily
continued, so “the diplomatic apparatus should understand
international realities and distance itself from the Security Council
tsunami.” The commentary also recommended the creation of a
“crisis-diplomacy team.”
An editorial in the hard-line “Resalat” daily on 29 September
also commented on the needs of the foreign-policy team. It noted that
the diplomats need a “guidance council” or a “thinking room”
(presumably, a foreign-policy think tank). “Resalat” said diplomats
and politicians do not have the time to study the issues they must
deal with because of their workloads, while researchers and scholars
are somewhat out of touch with the realities of diplomacy. “The
establishment of a thinking room can bring the areas of operations
and research closer together and create balance and equilibrium and
make up for the research shortcomings and weaknesses in the area of
foreign policy.”
No Obvious Effect
Ahmadinejad has evidently not been touched by such criticism.
In a 5 October speech he said Iran is not opposed to negotiations on
the nuclear issue, state television reported. But he added that Iran
will not accept negotiations that are meant to deprive Iranians of
their rights. Ahmadinejad said European countries other than the
so-called EU-3 (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) have shown
an interest in discussing the nuclear issue with Iran, and these
proposals are under review. Turning to the country’s foreign
policy in general, Ahmadinejad said Iranian diplomats defend the
country’s rights confidently.
Iran’s current position on the nuclear issue should not
be attributed to Ahmadinejad alone. Even before his inauguration
Tehran made it clear that all the regime’s leaders have a common
view on nuclear policy. Furthermore, Ahmadinejad is not the only
decision maker on the nuclear issue. Other top officials of the
regime — including Hashemi-Rafsanjani and Rohani — contribute to
the process and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has veto
authority over his actions. Finally, Tehran has been fairly
forthright for some time on what it sees as its right to master the
complete nuclear-fuel cycle. (Bill Samii)
FOREIGN MINISTER VISITS SOUTHERN NEIGHBORS. Foreign Minister
Manuchehr Mottaki visited Iran’s southern Persian Gulf neighbors,
regional news agencies reported on 3-5 October. He arrived in Kuwait
City on 3 October and was received by Prime Minister Sheikh Sabah
al-Ahmad al-Jabir al-Sabah. He also met with National Assembly
speaker Jasim al-Kharafi.
On 4 October, Mottaki arrived in Manama, Bahrain, and was
greeted at the airport by his Bahraini counterpart Sheikh Khalid bin
Ahmad bin Muhammad al-Khalifa. He later met with King Hamad Bin Issa
al-Khalifa, Prime Minister Sheikh Khalifa bin Salman al-Khalifa, and
Deputy Prime Minister Sheikh Muhammad bin Mubarak al-Khalifa.
On 5 October, Mottaki arrived in Muscat, Oman, and was
greeted by Foreign Minister Yusuf bin Alawi. Mottaki arrived in the
city of Al-Ain, which is 140 kilometers from the United Arab Emirates
capital of Abu Dhabi, on the evening of 5 October. The main topic of
discussion during all the visits was the nuclear issue, as well as
Iraq and Palestine. Qatar was the last stop on the trip.
Mottaki was scheduled to visit Saudi Arabia, but an anonymous
Iranian Foreign Ministry official told IRNA on 5 October the trip has
been postponed, although he did not give a reason.
Mottaki returned to Tehran on 7 October. At Tehran’s
Mehrabad Airport, he told reporters he made the trip because
President Mahmud Ahmadinejad gives priority to expanding relations
with neighboring states, IRNA reported.
Mottaki ascribed cancellation of the Saudi visit, as well as
one to Syria, to scheduling problems. He went on to say there was no
plan to visit the two countries in the first place. Mottaki said he
would visit Riyadh soon. (Bill Samii)
IRAQI PRESIDENT: NO IRANIAN INTERFERENCE. In an RFE/RL interview in
Prague on 5 October, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani dismissed the
possibility of Iraqi Shi’ite Muslims being loyal to Iran, Radio
Farda reported. Talabani said the Shi’ite brethren are Iraqi and
Arab, and the Shi’ite “Vatican” is in Al-Najaf and Karbala. From
the day Saddam Hussein was deposed, Talabani said, no hostility or
interference on the part of Iran has been seen. Turning to the
Mujahedin Khalq Organization (MKO), an armed Iranian opposition group
identified as a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. State
Department, Talabani said the MKO is the only Iranian group that
cooperated with Hussein’s regime against the Iraqi people, Radio
Farda reported. However, he added, the MKO’s current situation is
not problematic. (Bill Samii)
EXPERTS SAY INFRARED BOMBS USED IN IRAQ CANNOT BE HOMEMADE. The
diplomatic row continues between Britain and Iran over British
officials’ charges that there is a link between Iranian elements
or Hizballah with new explosive devices being used by insurgents in
Iraq. The sophisticated devices have killed eight British soldiers
since July, but Iran has denounced the British allegations of its
involvement as a lie. British military experts maintain, however,
that only precision-geared military supply factories can produce the
“infrared” bombs also supplied by Iran to Hizballah in Lebanon. And,
British officials say, the evidence still points towards Iran,
despite Tehran’s repeated denials. The experts spoke after British
Prime Minister Tony Blair warned Iran on 6 October not to interfere
in Iraq.
Amyas Godfrey has served in Iraq and heads the U.K. Armed
Forces Program at the Royal United Services Institute. He said that
it is usually easy for experienced experts on the ground to say which
group is capable of what kind of bomb attack, including the type of
explosives and packing.
The bombs in question are the “infrared trip-wire” devices
capable of piercing heavy armor. They are exactly the sophisticated
type that has been used by the Iran-funded Hizballah militias in
Lebanon.
“It’s a very basic intelligence analysis,” Godfrey said.
“We know who’s been using them before; we know who’s supplied
them. And that’s not any doubt. The worry now is that they’ve
appeared in southern Iraq, being used by insurgents. So, logically,
it’s looking like these same weapons are being supplied by the
same people.”
Many other military experts share this view, including Bruce
Jones, a security policy adviser to NATO in London. He said a number
of intelligence reports as well as the nature of the devices trace
the bombs to Iran because of three basic facts.
“They have been used in the area in southern Iraq adjacent to
Iran,” Jones said. “They are of a type used by Hizballah. And, you do
need a pretty sophisticated set-up, both to procure and to adapt
these technical components.”
The last point appears to matter most, Godfrey agreed. That
is: The manufacturing of the components for the bombs is simply
beyond any production capacity the insurgents might have at their
disposal.
“What we’re seeing now, are far more military hardware,
and something that requires a manufacturing set-up as in factories,”
Godfrey said. “It’s a large amount of high explosives, a shaped
charge, which is quite common in some RPGs [rocket-propelled
grenades] or in armor-piercing weapons.”
Godfrey explained that this high-precision charge melts a
hole, for example in the armor plate of a tank, and explodes inside
it. This is why it requires a high-quality manufacture, not something
that could be done in an insurgent hideout.
Jones stressed that another significant feature — also far
beyond the insurgents’ production capability — is the infrared
“trip-wire.”
“It’s very much the same concept that you have of
alarms,” Jones said. “An infrared beam goes between two points in a
museum, and if that is interrupted, then an alarm goes off.”
Godfrey added that the intelligence services have also
gathered a lot of evidence from the attacks on British troops. He
said he doubts, however, whether — because of its nature — the
intelligence services would reveal this kind of evidence to the
public.
“Looking through intelligence assessments of these eight
attacks, they all have links to the Hizballah-type explosives,”
Godfrey said. “Unless they have other proof, which we won’t know
about, through their security or their intelligence, all we have now
is a likelihood — i.e., that it is likely that these bombs have come
from Iran, because they are the same type that have been used
before.”
British Prime Minister Tony Blair yesterday warned Iran not
to interfere in Iraq. Blair said the nature of the bombs being used
against British troops “lead us either to Iranian elements or the
Hizballah because they are similar to devices used by Hizballah that
is funded and supported by Iran.”
But Blair stopped short of explicitly accusing Iran of
supplying the bombs to Iraqi insurgents. “We cannot be sure of this
at the present time,” Blair said. (Jan Jun)
*********************************************************
Copyright (c) 2005. RFE/RL, Inc. All rights reserved.
The “RFE/RL Iran Report” is a weekly prepared by A. William Samii on
the basis of materials from RFE/RL broadcast services, RFE/RL
Newsline, and other news services.
Direct comments to A. William Samii at [email protected].
For information on reprints, see:
Back issues are online at