Author: Kalantarian Kevo

“GRAND” PAID COMPENSATION A-320 CRUSH VICTIMS
ArmRadio.am
14.08.2006 20:44
“Grand” insurance company paid compensations to the families of the
victims of the a-320 crash in Sochi, said Artak Antonian, director
executive of the company.
Antonian added that the necessary documentation on the insurance
payments for the liner are being prepared, Arminfo reported.
He said that the full cost of the airplane will be recompensed. The
company refused to provide information on the amount if compensations
for the vistims’ families. Non-official sources say it varies about
$20 thousand. The A-320 machine cost $25 million.

Agence France Presse — English
August 10, 2006 Thursday 11:09 AM GMT
Armenia depends increasingly on cash from abroad
YEREVAN, Aug 10 2006
Armenia’s economy depends more and more on remittances from its
diaspora, which now account for more than 15 percent of Gross
National Product (GNP), the country’s national bank said Thursday.
“These past years the volume of financial transfers to Armenia has
grown significantly,” said bank specialist Karina Karapetian.
“Over the period 2003 to 2005 this indicator grew on average by 37
percent to represent 15 percent of GNP. From January to June 2006 the
volume of financial transfers to Armenia rose again by 34 percent.”
In 2005 private remittances reached 940 million dollars (730 million
euros), most of the money (about 72 percent) coming from
Russian-based expatriates.
Those living in the United States provided some 14 percent while the
communities in Germany, Greece and the Ukraine each provided about
five percent.
Many Armenians depend on remittances from abroad.

REMEMBERING GERMAN VICTIMS
By Charles Hawley
Spiegel Online, Germany
Aug. 10, 2006
Some call it historical revisionism. Others say it’s an important
part of World War II. An exhibition in Berlin looks at the fate of
Germans expelled from Eastern Europe after the war — something that
makes many of Germany’s neighbors nervous.
REUTERS
Erika Steinbach, head of the Federation of German Expellees, looks
at the new exhibition in Berlin.
One wonders what all the fuss is about. The exhibition, after all, is
relatively modest — occupying three rooms in the Kronprinzenpalais
located on Berlin’s Unter den Linden boulevard. Inside, one sees
informational plaques dedicated to the forced re-settlement of the
Finnish Karelians, forced by the Soviets to head westward during
World War II. One sees luggage belonging to Italians forced out of
Yugoslavia in 1944. There’s even documentation regarding the expulsion
of the Armenians from Turkey in 1915.
But the exhibition — called “Forced Paths: Flight and Expulsion in
20th Century Europe” — also has a large section on the post-World War
II expulsion of some 12 to 14 million Germans from Poland and other
Eastern European countries. In other words, say critics, the exhibition
seeks to portray Germans as victims of World War II and to rewrite
history. Plus, they point out, there’s already an exhibition dedicated
to the German expellees across the street in the German History Museum.
An esoteric debate for historians? Hardly. It’s an issue that has
repeatedly strained Germany’s relations with Eastern European countries
and has particularly rankled next-door neighbor Poland.
Indeed, soon after his election last fall, conservative Polish
President Lech Kaczynski made it be known that the ongoing efforts
of the German group Federation of Expellees — led by the vocal
parliamentarian Erika Steinbach — to build a permanent center in
Berlin devoted to post-war German expellees was unwelcome.
And in late July, he commented on the current exhibition: “Polish
foreign policy, of course, is dedicated to pursuing Polish interests,”
Kaczynski said on Polish radio. “The exhibition about expulsions
which will open on (August 10) in a prestigious building in the
Federal Republic of Germany is very definitely not in the interest
of Poland. The relativization of the responsibility for World War II
is not in Poland’s interest.”
The ongoing debate is not primarily about the historical facts. When
the Soviets under Stalin agreed with the Western Allies to move the
Polish border west to the Oder and Neisse rivers, millions of Germans
who had long lived in areas now belonging to Poland were forced to
leave. As many as 2 million died on the trek westwards and those who
arrived in Germany had to live for years in temporary shelters and
even in former concentration camps due to post-war housing shortages.
Primarily, opponents of the Center Against Expulsion — which is
the preliminary name Steinbach and her group have given to their
pet project — worry about the context within which German expellees
are presented. A handful of protestors were on hand on Thursday to
make sure their side of the story got press as well. “An image of
history,” read the anti-exhibition flyers tossed into the scrum of
journalists crowded around Steinbach to hear her opening address,
“is being communicated which portrays Germans as the victims of
flight and expulsion without adequately presenting the fact that
flight, expulsion and resettlement at the end of World War II was the
consequence of the aggressive, expansionist and destructive policies
followed by the Nazis.”
It is a criticism that has dogged Steinbach’s group for years —
and one that she seems particularly sensitive to. In comments to a
group of foreign journalists on Wednesday, she took pains to emphasize
the European nature of the exhibition and never tired of mentioning
that historical expertise was provided by experts from a number of
European countries including Czech Republic and Hungary. A Polish
expert withdrew from the project due to pressure faced at home.
Modest exhibition, bolder aims
And the exhibition itself — which will run through October 29 —
is rather modest. The fate of the German expellees is presented
along with that of eight other groups that were victims of forced
resettlement in 20th century Europe. The result is a lot of text, a
few items on display — the centerpiece being the bell from the ship
Wilhelm Gustloff which sank in January 1945 killing 9,343 Germans
fleeing Poland — and not a lot of clarity. If anything, it seems as
though Steinbach’s group is trying to keep the issue alive without
stepping on any toes.
But the true motivation for the ~@500,000 exhibition is obvious enough
and Steinbach herself admits that it is a means to an end. “I believe
that our exhibition will be an important step in the direction of
opening a center in Berlin documenting the expulsion,” she said
on Wednesday. Germany’s current government under Chancellor Angela
Merkel supports the idea of setting a “visible symbol” dedicated to
the expulsions, but have yet to agree on what that should be.
DDP Critics argue that portraying Germans as victims of World War II
amounts to historical revisionism.
And Steinbach’s group has made it clear it won’t be deterred by
criticism from outside Germany. “It is important that Germans
understand the fears (of Poles) and respects those fears,” she said.
“But that shouldn’t result in inaction. There is a need in Germany
to confront our entire history and a part of that is the story of
the expellees.”
Perhaps. But Eastern European fears are not so easily quelled. The
Polish papers on Thursday ramped up their anti-German rhetoric to mark
the exhibition’s opening. “The biggest difference (between Germany
and Poland) in their approach to history,” writes the weekly Wprost,
“is that in Poland and in other countries, one thinks primarily about
those things the Germans would rather forget.”
Or, as Piotr Buras, a Polish expert on German-Polish relations, told
SPIEGEL ONLINE last autumn: “The idea of a (Center Against Expulsion)
is very suspect for Poles. The Germans need to understand that
there is a large problem in German-Polish relations and she is called
Steinbach. If the Germans don’t see that, then it is a clear sign that
they aren’t all that interested in good relations with their neighbor.”

SKINHEAD DETAINED FOR VANDALIZING ARMENIAN MUSEUM IN ROSTOV-ON-DON
Interfax News Agency
Russia & CIS General Newswire
August 9, 2006 Wednesday 12:24 PM MSK
Rostov-on-Don police have detained a member of a skinhead group on
suspicion of involvement in desecrating a local church housing a
museum of Armenian culture.
Unidentified vandals smashed the windows in the building and tried
to set it on fire on July 31, an Interior Ministry spokesman told
Interfax on Wednesday.
A few days ago, unknown persons drew slogans reading “Russia for
the Russians!” on the museum’s door and the pavement in front of the
building, and made other insulting inscriptions.
A criminal case was opened. An investigation confirmed the involvement
of a skinhead group in the incident.
One of the group’s members, who was previously tried for robberies,
attacks and the illegal possession of arms, has been detained and
admitted his involvement in the act of vandalism. A manhunt for the
other participants in the incident is under way, the spokesman said.

PRESS RELEASE
Catholicosate of Cilicia
Communication and Information Department
Contact: V.Rev.Fr.Krikor Chiftjian, Communications Officer
Tel: (04) 410001, 410003
Fax: (04) 419724
E-mail: [email protected]
Web:
PO Box 70 317
Antelias-Lebanon
Armenian version:
BIKF AYA HOLDS A WEEK OF PRAYERS AND CONTEMPLATION
Daily prayers and contemplation are being held in the chapel of St. Mary
Monastery in Bikfaya on the occasion of the holiday of St. Mary and the
upcoming pilgrimage to the monastery named after this holiday.
As a preparation for this pilgrimage, daily morning contemplations are
organized by the Christian Education Department of the Catholicosate of
Cilicia and under the sponsorship of His Holiness Aram I. The contemplations
are guided by the members of the Cilician Brotherhood in participation with
the Seminary students.
The Brotherhood members are consecutively presenting the following topics
that clarify the role of the Holy Mother in Christian life, dogma and
theology: “The Holy Mother in the Old and New Books”, “The Holy Mother in
our Church’s hymns and prayers”, “The Holy Mother as an advocate for
humanity”, “The Holy Mother as an example of motherhood”, “The conduct of
the Holy Mother and change”.
The Christian Education Department of the Catholicosate has ventured on
organizing these useful lectures for the public with the aim of preparing
the Armenian faithful for the upcoming holiday. Introducing the faithful to
the life of the Holy Mother, her role in our Church’s theology, explaining
to the dogma and concept of the Armenian Church regarding her person and
role would help them greet this holiday with a conscious approach. Alongside
the contemplations hymns will be sung and sections from the Psalms will be
read.
##
The Armenian Catholicosate of Cilicia is one of the two Catholicosates of
the Armenian Orthodox Church. For detailed information about the
jurisdiction and the Christian Education activities in both the
Catholicosate and the dioceses, you may refer to the web page of the
Catholicosate, The Cilician Catholicosate, the
administrative center of the church is located in Antelias, Lebanon.

ROBERT KOCHARYAN HAS ONE MORE CHOICE
Lragir.am
08 Aug 06
It was not a surprise to see the head of the State Customs Agency Armen
Avetisyan in the first row of the Republican Party and not because
nobody remained in the political sphere, especially in the government
of Armenia, who can surprise the public. Simply the head of the State
Customs Agency Armen Avetisyan could not have been anywhere else. More
exactly, he should either have been where the law provides for or in
the Republican Party. It seems that there is nothing strange about his
presence to deserve special attention but as soon as we state that the
customs committee controls imports and exports in Armenia, it becomes
apparent that Armen Avetisyan acquires special importance. Even more
than the presence of the “authorities, who have quite recently become
Republicans. When the gates of Armenia are under control, control
over the internal movement becomes a matter of technique.
Hence, it is clear that Armen Avetisyan needs the Republican Party
enriched by Serge Sargsyan more than the Republican Party needs Armen
Avetisyan who how became rich nobody knows. And that Armen Avetisyan
is rich becomes clear from his cars, villa in Tsaghkadzor, expensive
Zilli suits. The society has even stopped asking Avetisyan where he
got such possessions. Armen Avetisyan has already explained once that
his wealth is from the Soviet years when his father was the director
of a building enterprise. It is not clear whether he realizes or not,
but Armen Avetisyan confesses that his possession is illegal simply
he hints that his father earned this illegal income, not he. The head
of a Soviet building enterprise could not saved so much money with
salary to live an oligarchic life in the post-Soviet Armenia.
At present, however, the problem is not how Armen Avetisyan lives such
luxurious life. It is a matter of future when neither the Republican
Party will help Avetisyan nor Avetisyan will help the Republican
Party. But presently they are convinced that they need each other. As
I have mentioned above, it is clear why they need each other. Perhaps
it is not accidental that after the extraordinary conference of the
Republican Party rumors were circulated that the president is likely
to dismiss Armen Avetisyan. But the spokesman of the president later
refuted this information. It may mean that Robert Kocharyan and the
Republican Party have agreed on their actions. But this impression
seems real only in case of a scrutiny. The point is that the process
of forming power has started in the Republic.
Perhaps this is what Serge Sargsyan meant when he said in three or
four months his initiative will produce its fruits. In this sense it
becomes clear that Robert Kocharyan is facing the necessity to hold
power of course if he is no likely to retire. As for the intentions of
the president, nobody knows about these intentions. However, during
a meeting with the students of Yerevan State University a year ago
he explained that he does not say anything about being or not being
but he is convinced that he is not worse than anyone. Hence, it means
that Robert Kocharyan is not thinking about retiring from power after
retiring from the post of president in 2008.
However, in this case it is at least surprising that not thinking
about retiring from power he is not considering, for instance,
dismissing the head of the Customs Agency. The point is that the
present situation makes impossible think about power and not think
about getting rid of the criminal. Maybe Robert Kocharyan thinks that
Armen Avetisyan is not part of the criminal system and attended the
conference of the Republican Party as an independent expert. Maybe.
Robert Kocharyan probably knows the pattern and structure of the
criminal better because for a long time he has built his power on it.
But the problem is that currently the native criminal is passing into
the hands of Serge Sargsyan, and the criminal is not a smart lamb to
“suckle two mothers”.
But if Robert Kocharyan is convinced that the head of the Customs
Agency is not part of the criminal, either he must personally explain
to the public or instruct Armen Avetisyan to explain why return on
customs has a very small share in budget receipts. Or how does it
happen that Armenia becomes a transit country of drug trafficking. At
least, both facts are set down in the evaluations of authoritative
international organizations. The International Monetary Fund and the
World Bank emphasize the low level of collection of taxes and customs,
and the report of the U.S. Department of State announced several
months ago that the government officials of Armenia are involved in
trafficking in drugs and are not punished.
If the president fails to answer these questions, the society has the
right to think that Robert Kocharyan does not control the situation.
The international organizations, which warn about the disturbing
situation in customs, also have the reason to think so.
Hence, the president also has a choice. He may either dismiss the
head of the State Customs Agency and thereby display that he keeps the
situation under control or choose capitulation and start negotiations
with the Republican Party on his future status. The second variant
is perhaps easier, considering that Robert Kocharyan has a great
experience in negotiations. But the case of Aliyev is different,
they are in the same situation, whereas in the case of the Republican
Party the negotiations will be absolutely different.
Because unlike Robert Kocharyan, the Republican Party and Serge
Sargsyan have already made their choice.
HAKOB BADALYAN

FARMS WITH TURNOVER OF UP TO 8 MLN DRAMS TO BE EXEMPT FROM VALUE ADDED TAX
YEREVAN, AUGUST 8, NOYAN TAPAN. In 2005-2006 alone, 68 small
enterprises have been set up in Armenia’s agriculture. These
enterprises need serious financial and legislative assistance. The
RA Minister of Agriculture Davit Lokian said this during a working
meeting with Armenian President Robert Kocharian on August 8. According
to the RA President’s press service, the current situation in the
Armenian agricultural sphere, particularly the situation in the
processing sector and the problem of promotion of new enterprises
were discused at the meeting. Attaching importance to this problem,
Robert Kocharian said that it should represent a continuous program,
with processing being made the main driving force for agricultural
development. The Armenian President considered it necessary to submit
to the National Assembly and adopt the laws on food security and
organic agriculture in the shortest possible time, as well as the law
on village and agricultural development, which will specify the policy
of agricultural subsidization and price regulation. It was noted during
the press conference that starting January 1, 2009, value added tax
(VAT) will be used in agriculture. An agreement was reached to exempt
farms with a turnover of up to 8 mln drams (about 19 thousand USD)
from VAT. Farms with a turnover exceeding that amount will pay 8-12%
VAT, which will not have a serious impact on their activities.

LEGAL AND SOCIAL GUARANTEES
Azat Artsakh, Nagorno Karabakh Republic [NKR]
07 Aug 2006
The NKR law on employment and social security on unemployment
has been enacted. An important thing about it is that it provides
for free of charge vocational training. For instance, a citizen
finished a vocational college in the Soviet Union and was trained
to be builder. In ten years, the corresponding commission gives
him degree 5 qualification. However, the experienced worker becomes
jobless, and is registered with the local agency of unemployment,
and gets an unemployment benefit. In this stage, he can use his
right for free of charge vocational training. He complies with all
the requirements, namely one year of insurance, vocational education
and qualification. He can enroll in special classes to his skills
and get a higher qualification. This is what Article 18 provides
for. Article 30 provides for a scholarship. Since he is unemployed
and gets an unemployment benefit, his scholarship will be 120 percent
of unemployment benefit, i.e. 10,800 drams a month, whereas formerly
the scholarship was 4680 drams a month. On July 10, 50 unemployed
people enrolled in computer classes, including 20 in Stepanakert, 10
in Martakert, Martuni and Askeran each. The computer classes are held
in the framework of the program worked out by the Ministry of Social
Security and funded by the state fund of social security. Considering
the demand of the labor market, the Ministry of Social Security will
enroll another 30 people in these classes. In 2005, the government
allocated 45,000 drams, including a 21,600 monthly scholarship per
person for two-month classes. However, there are specialties, which
require a longer duration of the course, namely 4 months. For these
courses, the government will have to pay 75,000 drams per person.
AA.

KOCHARIAN DISCUSSES JUDICIAL REFORMS WITH CHAIRMAN OF COURT OF CASSATION
Armenpress
YEREVAN, AUGUST 7, ARMENPRESS: Armenian President Robert Kocharian
conducted today a working meeting with the chairman of the Court of
Cassation Hovhannes Manukian. The presidential press service informed
Armenpress that during the meeting they discussed issues on judicial
reforms as well as on the legislative package approved by the National
Assembly connected with the judicial system.
After the constitutional reforms a necessity arose to make urgent
legislative changes on making the activity of the Court of Cassation
in accordance with the Constitution. Hovhannes Manukian also informed
the president that in coming week they are going to review all the
cases which are in the Court of Cassation.

AZERBAIJAN GETS A JUMP ON ITS NEIGHBOURS IN DEVELOPING CASPIAN SEA OIL
BAKU’S OIL BOOM
(August 08, 06)
By SCOTT TAYLOR
BAKU, Azerbaijan– “It’s getting too bloody soft around here for my
liking,” says Terry, a 46-year-old ex-British paratrooper who now runs
a bar in Baku. “It used to be the case that the sight of a foreigner
in Azerbaijan was so rare that the locals would stop and gawk at you
when you walked down the street.”
Missing a front tooth and sporting a shaved head, the barrel-chested
combat veteran would likely still create a stir in most civil
societies. But over the past decade the renewed oil boom has brought
a cast of such characters into this previously isolated former Soviet
republic.
In 1994, the newly independent Azerbaijani government signed a deal
with several Western companies to develop and export the vast, untapped
offshore oil and gas reserves in the Caspian Sea. British Petroleum
is the key player in this region, with established pipelines through
neighbouring Kazakhstan. The experience gained in its North Sea oil
projects has given BP a tremendous advantage in the international
race to develop the Caspian Sea reserves. As a result, Azerbaijan has
kept well ahead of the other four nations who share a border on this
newly discovered wealth.
“The Russians, Iranians, Kazakhs and Turkmens have no idea how much
oil we are already pumping through (BP’s) oil rigs,” said Terry, who
spent 10 years in the region as a BP employee before opening his pub,
the Garage, which caters strictly to foreign oil workers. “Our gap
on the competition in terms of technology would need to be measured
in light-years.”
The outer-space analogy is appropriate, as a patron in the Garage
describes expatriate bars in Baku as being like the intergalactic
nightclub in the Star Wars movies, “only instead of strange individuals
from foreign planets, they are bizarre representatives from across
the globe.”
The original bars and clubs were deliberately rough around the edges
to appeal to the mostly ex-military types who blazed the trail through
this previously non-Westernized territory. For instance, at the Garage
they serve bowls of free hot french fries at the bar instead of the
traditional peanuts (“I’m an Englishman, not a monkey,” says Terry
when asked about this custom). But as the boom in the Azerbaijan
economy — 25 per cent growth last year in GDP alone — spreads into
sectors outside the oil industry, the hospitality business has begun
to cater to a much greater variety of foreign tastes.
“First it was McDonald’s, then a whole bunch of fancy restaurants
and now we’ve even got expensive wine bars,” bemoaned the Garage’s
owner. “Baku will never be the same.”
This recent wave of change will not be the first time outside forces
have left an indelible imprint on Azeri society and culture. As
descendents of central Asian Turkic tribes, the Azeris are essentially
Muslim Turkmen. But in 1920, Russian Bolsheviks occupied the oil-rich
territory of the current Republic of Azerbaijan. The subsequent seven
decades of communism and Russian influence drastically diminished
the Islamic influence in this region.
Throughout my weeklong visit I spotted just one Azeri woman wearing
a traditional hijab; most dressed in Western-style, MTV-inspired
fashions. Although minarets and mosques still dot the cityscape, the
call to prayers is not broadcast over loudspeakers five times a day.
Culturally, the long period of Soviet control has left an ongoing
legacy of authoritarianism. Journalists are still escorted about the
city by official handlers wearing dark suits and driving old black
Volgas, once considered a “Mercedes equivalent” in the Soviet Union.
On the plus side, many of the hosted luncheons were capped off by the
Russian tradition of exchanging elaborate toasts with over-proof vodka
— certainly not something one would expect from a member nation of
the Organization of the Islamic Conference.
The impact of the sudden economic boom in Azerbaijan is illustrated
by the two separate currencies. The worn-out manats are valued at
4,800 US, while the crisp new (Yeni) mantas trade in at about $1.20
US. Of course, with such a tremendous influx of foreigners, a lot of
international currency is also accepted in the marketplace, although
Canadian dollars have yet to be introduced.
“It is regrettable that we have achieved the lowest of co-operation
from Canada among all of the world’s developed nations,” says Novruz
Mammadov, special adviser to the president. “It is frustrating
for us when we see so little interest in something which holds so
much potential.” Canada is alone among the G8 nations to have no
diplomatic representation in Baku, and the nearest consular functions
are conducted either in Ankara, Turkey or Moscow.
“In the 15 years since independence, Canada has sent just two official
delegations to visit our country, one from your foreign ministry in
2005 and some members of Parliament back in 2003,” says Mammadov
The Azeris, on the other hand, maintain a full embassy in Ottawa and
are keen to encourage Canadian trade. After years of Soviet communism
and post-collapse instability, the Azerbaijan infrastructure is in
need of just about every commodity conceivable. Add to this the vast
oil revenues and ongoing development in the region, and the Azeri
government is in a cash-rich position to acquire its needs.
“You have to remember that we are starting from absolute zero —
we need just about everything,” said Mammadov. “There are still
tremendous opportunities for international companies in the energy
field, telecommunications, agriculture, electronics — the list is
endless. And we have the revenue to pay for it.”
One drawback to foreign investment is that in the immediate post-Soviet
climate, corruption was rife. Every level of government — right down
to the policeman on the street — wanted a piece of the huge windfall
that was expected to follow development of the oil fields. But as
the volume of foreign business increases, such practices are being
more seriously challenged.
An ad in a Baku English-language daily newspaper calls upon foreign
corporations to create an investor forum to fight corruption.
It’s not easy doing business in Azerbaijan, reads the headline.
Corruption? Unfair practices? Vague regulations? Unjust courts?
Monopolies? Unseen traps for investors? Together, let’s try to
change things!
Another sign that the flow of new money is having an impact is that
the police are no longer as aggressive in their encounters with
foreign nationals. “One night the local police stopped a BP employee
on his way home from the bar. When he refused to pay them the usual
‘We’ll let you go this time’ bribe, they locked him in jail,” said
Hermann Lehmann, a six-year veteran on the Azerbaijan oil scene.
“The next day, when he informed his bosses at BP, they immediately
demanded justice and heads rolled at the police station. Believe me,
money talks in Baku.”
A reputable free press has yet to be established in Azerbaijan. A
recent report by the international watchdog agency Freedom House
strongly criticized the ruling party (New Azerbaijan Party) for
“eroding democracy” through media controls. The chairman of the
Azerbaijan Press Council, Aflatun Amashov, admits journalism in his
country has no credibility but says the problem is a lack of control.
“There are 3,000 registered newspapers in Azerbaijan, most funded
by various political interests, and there is no control mechanism
to challenge libellous statements,” he said. “Everyone is free to
publish what they want. You can even libel the president without
real fear of recrimination. As a result, the media reports have
become so contradictory and sprinkled with lies that no one knows
what to believe.”
Amashov and his council are lobbying the government for more money
for independent media to diminish their vulnerability to political
pressure. They are also working on initiatives such as freedom of
information legislation to help build a legitimate news media. “These
things will inevitably take some time,” said Amashov. “You cannot
create a climate for a western-style free press overnight.”
Westernizing Azerbaijan seems to be the cornerstone of government
policy. Virtually every official I interviewed proclaimed: “We are
a European nation — our values are oriented toward the West.” Given
the country’s pivotal location in the Caucasus region, this shift in
attitude threatens to alter the international trade balance.
When Alexander the Great conquered Baku in the third century BC, he
proclaimed it to be “the gateway to China” — the vital link between
eastern and western civilizations. In addition to development of
the Caspian Sea oil reserves with western corporations, Azerbaijan
is also the key link in the newly built Baku-Tblisi-Ceyhan pipeline.
The pipeline is already carrying vast amounts of oil through Georgia
to the Turkish Mediterranean seaport of Ceyhan; within a few months,
it is expected to deliver one million barrels of oil per day.
Tension between the U.S. and Iran also puts the Azeris in a very
delicate situation. In addition to the 8.5 million people living
in the independent Republic of Azerbaijan, about 17 million ethnic
Azeris live within the borders of Iran. This division occurred in 1828,
when Imperialist Russia and Iran divided the territory.
Azeris constitute about one-third of Iran’s population. Although until
recently the nationalist sentiment of Azeri-Iranians has been tempered
by their strict adherence to the Shiite fundamentalist movement,
there are indications that a rift is developing between them and the
Persian majority.
In May, Iranian newspapers published a controversial cartoon that
depicted Azeri-Iranians as cockroaches too dumb to realize what
they were. This prompted several days of violent protests throughout
northern Iran, culminating in a riot in the town of Naghadeh that left
four protesters dead and more than 70 injured. Iranian authorities were
quick to respond by arresting the cartoonist and editor responsible
for the offending graphic, and calls rang out for the impeachment of
the interior minister for the mishandling of the crisis.
Naturally, Tehran blamed the U.S. State Department for trying to ignite
the flames of Azeri nationalism. During the wave of demonstrations,
U.S. agencies and nationalists in Azerbaijan used the Internet
and radio broadcasts to whip up protesters. While the Azerbaijani
government denies that any policy exists to establish stronger links
to Azeri-Iranians, it does recognize there will only be an increase
in such sentiments in the coming years.
“What do you think will happen when Azeri-Iranians look north of
their border and see their brothers enjoying a prosperous democratic
lifestyle with all the western amenities which they are denied?”
asked Samad Seyidov, director of the foreign relations committee to
the European Union.
Another concern for Tehran as the U.S. steps up the sabre-rattling
is the ever-increasing military ties between Azerbaijan and NATO.
Although officially denied, the presence of British and American
forces along the Azerbaijan-Iran border is an open secret throughout
Baku. More openly, the government proudly proclaims its contributions
to the U.S.-led war against terrorism. “We have troops in Iraq,
Afghanistan and Kosovo; furthermore, as a secular Islamic nation
that recognizes and has good relations with the state of Israel,
I believe we are a key ally of the United States,” said Seyidov
How deep that relationship has developed may soon be put to the
test over the unresolved issue of the Armenian occupation of the
Nagorno-Karabakh region, now mainly under Armenian control.
The Azeri-Armenian conflict over Armenian separatist aspirations
in Nagorno-Karabakh dates back more than a century. Although the
Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe has recommended
that inhabitants of the region, mostly of Armenian descent, be allowed
to vote on their area’s fate, Azerbaijan has said it cannot agree to
the region’s secession.
“With the completion of the B.T.C. pipeline, their increased military
capability and key regional strategic significance, the Azerbaijanis
have certainly increased their bargaining position (with regards
to Nagorno-Karabakh),” said one Baku-based U.S. official. “However,
you have to remember that there are 1.2 million Armenians residing
in America and they are too powerful a lobby to ignore.”
While Armenia cannot keep pace with Azerbaijan’s recent arms build-up,
it can still count on potential political and possible military support
from both Russia and Iran. Armenia’s tactical deterrent to any Azeri
military offensive to retake the occupied territory is the threat
of missile strikes against Azerbaijan’s oil infrastructure. The
new pipeline tops the list of potential targets. For their part,
Azeri military officials are coy about any possible time frame for
an offensive, but they are convinced the disputed territory will one
day be back under their control.
“Sooner or later we will come to terms with the Armenians, given
the steady growth of (Azerbaijan’s) military strength,” said
Maj.-Gen. Ramiz Najafov. “Up until now we have shown patience in our
resolve for a peaceful solution, but our patience is not endless.”
For the foreign ex-pats in Baku, it is apparent that the Azeri
government has very limited options in dealing with this conflict.
“Before he died, the old man (Heydar Aliyev) promised that he would
take (Nagorno-Karabakh) back,” said Terry, the publican. (Aliyev
was the former member of the Soviet politburo who led the country
to independence from the Soviets in 1991.) “Now he is revered as a
virtual saint and as president, his son (Ilham Aliyev) has inherited
that legacy. It’s not a matter of ‘if,’ but rather when they try to
settle this again.”
In the meantime, the oil continues to flow, the revenue pours in and
Azerbaijan sits at the vortex of what is a potential perfect storm
of geopolitical, cultural and strategic interests.
staylor
Scott Taylor is a columnist for The Chronicle Herald and
editor-in-chief of the military affairs magazine Esprit de Corps.
Second of a two-part series by The Chronicle Herald’s military
affairs columnist.