BAKU: If there’s threat of armed conflict to NK, ROA will sign alian

Today.Az, Azerbaijan
Aug 23 2008

Armenian expert Gagik Arutyunyan: "If there is a threat of armed
conflict to Nagorno Karabakh, Armenia will immediately sign a treaty
of alliance"

23 August 2008 [12:24] – Today.Az

The legal recognition of Nagorno Karabakh’s independence by Armenia is
possible any time and if it does not occur, there are probably
definite grounds, said head of the Noravank scientific research center
Gagik Arutyunyan.

"If I am not mistaken, the Armenian President said that in case there
is a threat of armed conflict to Nagorno Karabakh, we will immediately
sign the due treaty of alliance on the same day. I think, it is
currently not suitable for Armenia to recognize Nagorno Karabakh’s
independence", noted he.

The expert considers that the legal recognition of Nagorno Karabakh or
signing any treaty by Armenia in the negotiation process will not be
effective, as "we are de-facto united". He said on the current stage
Armenia’s recognition of Nagorno Karabakh’s independence will be
purely declarative. "This is rather a show than a serious political
step", announced Arutyunyan.

As regards the possible recognition of independence of Abkhazia and
South Ossetia by Armenia, the expert noted that it is necessary to pay
attention to the conduct of the world community and not to be
"pioneers" in this case.

"Russia will be the first to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but
the recognognition is not likely to be of global scale, like it was in
case of Kosovo. Yet, naturally, there will be other countries,
alongside with Russia, which will recognize their independence", noted
he.

The expert also announced that the self-declared "Nagorno Karabakh
Republic" takes a balanced position in the relations with Abkhazia and
South Ossetia and it did not sign any binding documents and the recent
developments proved the correctness of such a position.

"Imagine that Nagorno Karabakh, like Abkhazia, was obliged to conduct
certain military actions or fulfill military commitments", noted the
expert.

As for the prospects of further relations between Nagorno Karabakh and
Abkhazia and South Ossetia, the expert said that it is early to
establish closer formal and legal relations. "It can be discussed
after independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia is recognized", noted
he.

"Abkhazia and South Ossetia will certainly maintain ties with
unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh, as it meets their interests: ""Nagorno
Karabakh Republic" has always… provided its assistance when
possible. I hope that this cooperation will continue developing",
concluded the political scientist.

/Regnum/

URL:

http://www.today.az/news/politics/47151.html

Azeri Dailiy Criticizes Turkey’s Handling Of Georgian-Russian Confli

AZERI DAILY CRITICIZES TURKEY’S HANDLING OF GEORGIAN-RUSSIAN CONFLICT

BBC Monitoring International Reports
August 21, 2008 Thursday

An Azerbaijani independent daily has described as "insincere" Turkey’s
handling of the conflict between Georgia and Russia.

Russian-language Zerkalo said on 21 August that Turkey, which is a
NATO member, is openly aiding Russia. While Turkey backed the NATO
declaration on Georgia, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
failed to condemn Russia’s invasion of Georgia during his visit to
Baku on 20 August, Zerkalo said.

The paper also criticized Ankara for its failure to discuss the idea
of a Caucasus stability pact with its NATO allies, including the
USA. The Caucasus Home, suggested by Turkey, is to include Turkey,
Azerbaijan, Georgia, Armenia and Russia.

"Apparently, the Turkish leadership has an illusion that the
Kremlin will be reckoning with its opinion in geopolitical issues
in the region," Zerkalo said. "In fact, Erdogan is suggesting that
Azerbaijan toe Russia’s line. This is a dangerous path which will
sooner or later make Azerbaijan a vassal of Russia."

The daily said that the reason for Turkey’s behaviour could be its
attempt to delay the regional countries’ Euroatlantic integration.

"Up until today, Turkey was the ‘last barrier’ on NATO’s southeastern
flank. However, after the regional countries integrate into the
Euroatlantic space, Turkey will lose this significance for the
West. This is where its interests coincide with those of Russia,"
Zerkalo said.

New State Committee Set Up In Armenia

NEW STATE COMMITTEE SET UP IN ARMENIA

Mediamax
Aug 20 2008
Armenia

Yerevan, 20 August: Under a decree signed by Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan, the State Customs Committee and the State Tax Service
were merged into the Committee on State Incomes under the Armenian
government.

Under another decree signed by the president, Vahram Baghdasaryan
was relieved of the post of the head of the State Tax Service, and
Gagik Khachatryan, who earlier headed the State Customs Committee,
was appointed chairman of the Committee on State Incomes under the
Armenian government, the press service of the Armenian President has
told Mediamax.

The Transit Railway Bridge Will Be Recovered In 1-2 Weeks

THE TRANSIT RAILWAY BRIDGE WILL BE RECOVERED IN 1-2 WEEKS

armradio.am
20.08.2008 16:48

The transit railway bridge, which was bombarded in August 16, is being
recovered in Georgia for soon transportation of cargos. The transit
railway bridge has not been used for a long time and now it s in a
bad situation.

The Press serving of the "South Caucasian railway" informs that 57
wagons of bread-stuff are waiting in the territory of Georgia to
left for Armenia. 12 colleagues of the "South Caucasian railway"
left for Georgia to take part in the reconstruction works of the
bridge. According to the got information about 1-2 weeks will be
required for recovering the bombarded bridge.

Careful Policy Of Armenian Foreign Ministry Regarding South Ossetian

CAREFUL POLICY OF ARMENIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY REGARDING SOUTH OSSETIAN CONFLICT IS THE ONLY CORRECT ONE, ARMENIAN POLITICAL EXPERT THINKS

arminfo
2008-08-20 15:00:00

ArmInfo. Careful policy of Armenian Foreign Ministry regarding South
Ossetian conflict is the only correct one, Armenian political expert,
director of "Kavkaz" institute Aleksandr Iskandaryan told ArmInfo
correspondent.

He recalled that Iran with Iranian-American relations is on one side
of Armenia and Georgia with Russian-Georgian relations is on the other
side. At the same time Russia as well as America are very important
for Armenia just the same way as Georgia and Iran, since de-facto
they are the only neighbours of Armenia. For this reason it would
be very dangerous to make sharp steps and hold an active policy in
connection with the South Ossetian conflict.

Research and Markets releases: Armenia – Telecoms Market Overview &

Developing Telecoms (press release)
Aug 19 2008

Research and Markets releases "Armenia – Telecoms Market Overview & Statistics"

By Michael Schwartz
20 Aug 2008 at 00:00

Analysis, Armenia, Telecoms, Markets, Deregulation, CEE: Dublin-based Research and Markets has emerged as one of the most prolific publishers of telecoms analysis and forecasting. Reports on developing markets are no exception. We submit below just one of the many releases we have received from Research and Markets.

Armenia’s telecommunications sector is small but growing. With over 600,000 fixed-line subscribers for a population of around 3.5 million, the level of investment in infrastructure and new services has begun to increase. There are, however, major structural issues to be addressed in the sector.

For example, although ArmenTel, the country’s national telecoms provider, was granted exclusive rights to provide all telecoms services until 2013 (apart from data services), a second mobile service provider was launched in mid-2005 after the government awarded a licence to K-Telecom (trading as VivaCell). The mobile market has been growing strongly and in late 2007 plans to award a third mobile operator licence were announced.

The new report looks at the overall state of telecommunications in Armenia and provides a selection of pertinent market statistics. These include a brief overview of progress made to date in the Armenian market and the breakdown of ArmenTel’s monopoly. The new players are in turn discussed and assessed. To round off the report before it concludes with the statistical sections, the consequences of foreign investment are reviewed.

18,461.8 Liters Of Mineral Waters Bottled In Armenia In January-June

18,461.8 LITERS OF MINERAL WATERS BOTTLED IN ARMENIA IN JANUARY-JUNE 2008

ARKA
Aug 19, 2008

YEREVAN, August 19. /ARKA/. Armenia bottled 18,461.8 liters of mineral
waters as of end-June 2008 against 153,000 liters in the corresponding
period last year, the RA National Statistical Service reports.

Local producers increased the bottling of mineral waters by 20.7%
(3,161.8 liters) year-on-year as of end-June.

Armenian Energy Minister Meets Deputy Iranian Foreign Minister

ARMENIAN ENERGY MINISTER MEETS DEPUTY IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTER

IRNA
Aug 18 2008
Iran

Tehran, 18 August: Visiting Armenian Energy and Natural Resources
Minister and Armenian head of Iran-Armenia Cooperation Council Armen
Movsisyan here Monday [18 August] met and conferred with Iran’s Deputy
Foreign Minister caretaker of Foreign Ministry’s Middle East and CIS
Affairs Office Ali Reza Sheykh-Attar.

According to the Information and Media Head Office of the Foreign
Ministry, during the meeting in the presence of the Deputy Armenian
Foreign Minister Qarib Janain, the two sides reviewed bilateral ties,
as well as the Caucasus region’s recent developments.

Sheykh-Attar in the meeting referred to the depth and wide span of
the bilateral ties, emphasizing that the two countries’ relations
are still in need of further development.

Movsisyan, too, stressed that Yerevan’s determination for expansion of
its level of cooperation with the Islamic Republic of Iran in various
fields is quite strong, reiterating, "Iran’s role in the region
is quite significant and your country enjoys a unique geographical
status."

Turkey, Iran: Ankara’s Priorities Shift

TURKEY, IRAN: ANKARA’S PRIORITIES SHIFT

The FINANCIAL
Aug 18 2008
Georgia

STRATFOR — Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s two-day trip to
Ankara ended Aug. 15. While the Iranian government and state media have
touted his trip as proof that Iran and Turkey are close allies, the
Turkish government is far more concerned with containing the current
situation in the Caucasus, which could have major implications for
Turkey’s ally Azerbaijan. Read STARTFOR analysis.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad wrapped up a two-day trip to
Ankara on Aug. 15. The Iranian government and state media have been
hyping Ahmadinejad’s visit to Turkey for days in an attempt to showcase
to the world the Iranian belief that Iran and Turkey, as the two
principle non-Arab regional powerhouses, are close and natural allies.

But while Iran is eager to forge closer ties with Turkey, the Turks
do not have much time for Ahmadinejad right now. Ankara has bigger
things on its mind, namely the Russians.

Turkey is heir to the Ottoman Empire, which once extended deep into the
southern Caucasus region where Russia just wrapped up an aggressive
military campaign against Georgia. Turkey’s geopolitical interests
in the Caucasus have primarily been defensive in nature, focused on
keeping the Russians and Persians at bay. Now that Russia is resurging
in the Caucasus, the Turks have no choice but to get involved.

The Turks primarily rely on their deep ethnic, historical and
linguistic ties to Azerbaijan to extend their influence into the
Caucasus. Azerbaijan was alarmed, to say the least, when it saw Russian
tanks crossing into Georgia. As far as Azerbaijan was concerned,
Baku could have been the next target in Russia’s military campaign.

However, Armenia — Azerbaijan’s primary rival — remembers well the
1915 Armenian genocide by the Turks, and looks to Iran and especially
Orthodox Christian Russia for its protection. Now that Russia has
shown it is willing to act on behalf of allies like South Ossetia and
Abkhazia in the Caucasus, the Armenians, while militarily outmatched
by the Azerbaijanis, are now feeling bolder and could see this as
their chance to preempt Azerbaijan in yet another battle for the
disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region– especially if it thinks it can
look to Russia to militarily intervene on its behalf.

The Turks and their ethnic kin in Azerbaijan are extremely wary of
Russia’s intentions for the southern Caucasus beyond Georgia. Sources
told Stratfor that Azerbaijan has learned that the Russian military
jets that bombed Gori and Poti were based out of Armenia. This
development not only signaled a significant expansion of Russia’s
military presence in the southern Caucasus, but it also implied
that Armenia had actually signed off on the Russian foray into
Georgia, knowing that Russian dominance over Georgia would guarantee
Armenian security and impose a geographic split between Turkey and
Azerbaijan. If the Armenians became overly confident and made a move
against Azerbaijan for Nagorno-Karabakh, expecting Russian support,
the resulting war would have a high potential of drawing the Turks
into a confrontation with the Russians — something that both NATO
member Turkey and Russia have every interest in avoiding.

The Turks also have a precarious economic relationship with Russia. The
two countries have expanded their trade with each other significantly
in recent years. In the first half of 2008, trade between Russia and
Turkey amounted to $19.9 billion, making Russia Turkey’s biggest
trading partner. Much of this trade is concentrated in the energy
sphere. The Turks currently import approximately 64 percent of the
natural gas they consume from the Russians. Though Turkey’s geographic
position enables it to pursue energy links in the Middle East and the
Caucasus that can bypass Russian territory, the Russians have made
it abundantly clear over the past few days that the region’s energy
security will still depend on MOSCOW ‘s good graces.

Turkey’s economic standing also largely depends on its ability to act
as a major energy transit hub for the West through pipelines such as
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which was recently forced
offline due to a purported Kurdish militant attack and the war in
Georgia. Turkey simply cannot afford to see the Russians continue
their surge into the Caucasus and threaten its energy supply.

For these reasons, Turkey is on a mission to keep this tinderbox in
the Caucasus contained. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
spent the last couple of days meeting with top Russian leaders in
MOSCOW and then with the Georgian president in Tbilisi . During
his meetings with Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, President
Dmitri Medvedev and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Erdogan pushed the
idea of creating a Caucasus union that would include both Russia and
Georgia. Though this organization would likely be little more than
a talk shop, it is a sign of Turkey’s interest in reaching a mutual
understanding with Russia that would allow both sides to maintain a
comfortable level of influence in the region without coming to blows.

The Iranians, meanwhile, are sitting in the backseat. Though Iran
has a foothold in the Caucasus through its support for Armenia,
the Iranians lack the level of political, military and economic
gravitas that Turkey and Russia currently hold in this region. Indeed,
Erdogan did not even include Iran in his list of proposed members
for the Caucasus union, even though Iran is one of the three major
powers bordering the region. The Turks also struck a blow to Iran
by holding back from giving Ahmadinejad the satisfaction of sealing
a key energy agreement for Iran to provide Turkey with natural gas,
preferring instead to preserve its close relationship with the United
States and Israel. Turkey simply is not compelled to give Iran the
attention that it is seeking at the moment.

The one thing that Turkey can look to Iran for, however, is keeping
the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict under control. Iran’s support for
Armenia has naturally put Tehran on a collision course with Ankara
when dealing with the Caucasus in the past. But when faced with a
common threat of a resurgent Russia, both Turkey and Iran can agree
to disagree on their conflicting interests in this region and use
their leverage to keep Armenia or Azerbaijan from firing off a shot
and pulling the surrounding powers into a broader conflict. In light
of the recent BTC explosion claimed by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party
(PKK), Turkey can also look to Iran to play its part in cracking down
on PKK rebels in the region, many of whom have spent the past year
fleeing a Turkish crackdown in northern Iraq by traversing through
Iran to reach the southern Caucasus.

While Iran and Turkey can cooperate in fending off the Russians,
it will primarily be up to Turkey to fight the battle in the
Caucasus. Russia has thus far responded positively to Turkey’s
diplomatic engagements, but in a region with so many conflicting
interests, the situation could change in a heartbeat.

Serbian arms manufacturer denies exporting weapons to Georgia

Danas , Serbia
Aug 15 2008

Serbian arms manufacturer denies exporting weapons to Georgia

[Report by Zoran Radovanovic: "Serbian Government Banned Export of
Domestically Made Weaponry to Georgia in 2006"]

Kragujevac — The Russian Defence Ministry is quoted by the United
Kingdom’s BBC as saying that Serbia is on the list of countries that
assisted Georgia militarily ahead of the war in South Ossetia. On the
list of Georgia’s alleged helpers ahead of the war in South Ossetia,
apart from Serbia, are also the United States, the United Kingdom,
France, Greece, Turkey, Israel, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Ukraine,
and some other countries.

Where Serbia is concerned, the Russian Defence Ministry’s statement
says that Kalashnikov assault rifles manufactured by Kragujevac-based
Zastava arms factory were used in attacks on South Ossetia and Russian
troops. In this connection, the BBC quoted former Serbian Foreign
Minister Vuk Draskovic as saying that he had had "warnings from
Russian diplomats that Georgians were shooting down their (Russian)
helicopters with so-called Strela [Arrow] missiles made in Serbia."

"I insisted that it was harmful to be selling arms to a country that
was in conflict with Russia, our biggest ally," Draskovic told the BBC
and added that the Serbian Government (in which he was the foreign
minister) had originally banned the export and then allowed it after
days of strikes by Kragujevac’s Zastava arms manufacturers.

At Zastava Oruzje arms factory yesterday they were surprised by the
Russian Defence Ministry’s statement and astonished by Vuk Draskovic’s
statement, which they said was "totally unfounded."

Zastava Oruzje CEO Rade Gromovic insists, for example, that for
decades past, the Kragujevac factory has not been exporting infantry
armament to Georgia, which he says can be verified at the Serbian
Defence Ministry, which used to issue permits and now gives approval
for the export of domestically made armament.

"I do not know how our Kalashnikovs came to be in Georgia. Perhaps
they were sold to the Georgians by Croatia or Bosnia-Herzegovina,
whose territorial defence forces at the time of the former SFRY
[Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia] had this kind of
weaponry. Zastava Oruzje and the state of Serbia cannot, however,
dictate to the former Yugoslav republics, which have long been
independent states, what to do with their army surpluses," Gromovic
says.

Vuk Draskovic’s statement refers to late 2006, when three domestic
military factories — Zastava Oruzje, Cacak’s Sloboda, and Valjevo’s
Krusik — applied to the competent state authorities and the Serbian
Government for permission to export armament and military equipment to
some Eurasian countries. However, at that time, the Kragujevac-based
factory did not ask for permission to export infantry armament to
Georgia, but to Armenia, with whose Defence Ministry it had signed two
business contracts. On the other hand, Cacak-based Sloboda and
Valjevo-based Krusik (manufacturers of grenades, mines and explosives,
rockets, and so on) did apply for permits to export armament to
Georgia and, in late 2006, the government first issued the requested
permits pursuant to consent obtained earlier from the competent state
bodies, but shortly afterward rescinded this decision in response to
Russia’s position on settling the status of Kosovo and banned the
delivery of products made by the Valjevo and Cacak companies to
Georgian security forces.

Subsequently, the government indemnified these factories for their
losses. However, those well versed in this matter do not care to state
with any certainty that Krusik and Sloboda had not exported their
products to Georgia prior to 2006, but then again, that would have
nothing to do with what Vuk Draskovic was talking about.

In late 2006, the government did not issue export permits to Zastava
Oruzje for two deliveries of infantry weaponry to Armenia and did not
agree that the state should indemnify the Kragujevac arms
manufacturers as it had done in the case of Krusik and Sloboda. After
several futile attempts to persuade the government through
negotiations to either issue export permits or pay indemnity,
Kragujevac arms manufacturers again resorted to street protests in
late December 2006, seizing control in the process of part of the
Kragujevac City Administration building and holding it in a blockade
until Serbian President Boris Tadic came to Kragujevac. Not long after
Tadic’s visit, official information was received from Moscow that
Russia was not opposed to the export of Serbian infantry armament to
Armenia. The Serbian Government then issued a permit to Zastava Oruzje
to export one shipment of armament to Armenia. The permit for the
other shipment of infantry armament for the Armenian Defence Ministry
the Kragujevac factory has not yet received and probably never will.

[Box] Unfounded Statements

Jugoslav Ristic, who until recently was Zastava arms manufacturers
union leader and is now president of the United Labour Union of the
Serbian Defence Industry, told our newspaper yesterday that the
domestic armament factories did not export weaponry to Georgia,
because they did not have the permission from the state of Serbia to
do so.

"It is surprising that Vuk Draskovic, who was the foreign minister in
the government that banned the export of Serbian armament, primarily
to Georgia and partly also to Armenia, has already forgotten what
decisions that government made in this connection. Therefore, his
statement made to the BBC is confusing and contradictory and as such
totally unfounded," Ristic stressed.

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