REGIONAL TRANSFORMATIONS: RUSSIA SEEKS NEW TIES WITH ARMENIA’S NEIGHBORS
ANALYSIS | 26.11.14 | 10:49
By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
The South Caucasus region is preparing for a major transformation,
and the future of Armenia will depend on the direction in which the
changes occur.
Russia and Abkhazia signed an agreement on military and political
cooperation, under which the armies of the two countries were united,
and Russia has become, in fact, the guarantor of the security of
Abkhazia. It is noteworthy that after the signing of the agreement
Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that now the Abkhazian railway
can be put into use.
This railway, among other things, is also necessary for connecting
Russia with Armenia and further with Iran and Turkey.
Without this road Eurasian integration in Armenia is meaningless. But
construction of this road will also require improved relations between
Russia and Georgia, moreover, the consent of Georgia to sit at a
negotiating table.
Tbilisi has so far shown tough reaction to Russia’s attempts to
initiative negotiations between representatives of Georgia and
Abkhazia, which broke free from Tbilisi’s control in 1992. However,
Georgia’s Minister for Integration Paata Zakareishvili said recently
that if Georgia negotiates with Moscow and not with Sukhumi, then
the reopening of the railway can be discussed.
Besides, Georgia has made no practical demarches against Russia
after the signing of Moscow’s agreement with Abkhazia, for example,
it did not state that it will stop the transit of goods from Russia
to Armenia. This has led experts to believe that Moscow and Tbilisi
have a chance to reach agreement and Georgia may agree not only to
ensure unimpeded transit from Russia to Armenia, but perhaps even
become a partner of the Eurasian Union.
This, indeed, will change the situation in the South Caucasus. But
at the same time other important transformations are also taking place.
In particular, despite the fact that Iran and the Six nation (the US,
UK, Russia, China, Germany and France) failed to sign a framework
agreement on November 24, all parties are talking about progress.
Moreover, Iran has gained access to its frozen reserves in the amount
of $700 million a month.
Immediately after the talks Iranian President Hassan Rouhani got a
call from his Russian counterpart Putin, who stressed the importance
of the lifting of the sanctions against Iran and Russian-Iranian
cooperation. Russia does not hide its intention to join its
communications through Azerbaijan with the Iranian ones – with
access to the Persian Gulf. However, this project has its opponents,
and they suggest connecting Iran not with Russia but with Europe –
via Armenia and Georgia.
Russia is also trying to establish closer relations with Turkey. On
December 1, President Putin is to visit Ankara to attend a meeting of
the Supreme Council on Russian-Turkish Cooperation. There are hints
that Russia will offer Turkey an opportunity of close relationship
with the Eurasian Union, including the opening of the border with
Armenia. Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu recently made
a statement in which he called on Armenia to connect to the new
regional communications. True, he reiterated the precondition –
the normalization of relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
Putin’s Eurasian project does not seem to be economically justified,
but it still enables him to form some political alliance vectors. And
if Russia is able to come to terms with Turkey, Iran, Georgia and a
number of other countries to establish a free trade zone with the
Eurasian Economic Union, then it will, first and foremost, impact
Armenia, which will be isolated from other relevant projects and
completely absorbed in the Russian military-political space. The next
step could be an offer to “unite the armies” of Russia and Armenia
according to the example of Abkhazia.
http://armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/58793/armenia_region_transformations_analysis