IRAN, SHIITE FACTOR AND DEVELOPMENTS IN THE ARAB WORLD
Sevak Sarukhanyan
12.05.2011
The revolutionary movement which has been initiated in the Arab world
has no tendency to subside; this, in its turn, has stirred up the
struggle between regional and international powers, In particular, for
Iran those processes has special significance also due to the fact that
Shiite communities and the ally of Iran Syria, the consolidation and
preservation of the strong positions of which is of great importance
for Tehran, play special role in those processes.
Shiite flourishing Though after the Islamic revolution Iran has taken
eager part in the protection of the Shiite interests in the region, the
recent revolutionary wave in the Arab world and active participation
of the Shiite communities in it can be considered rather unexpected.
Particularly, this is substantiated by the fact that over the recent
period Tehran mended relations with the Arab countries in the Middle
East and abandoned the policy of exporting Islamic revolution.
Probably, this political track is conditioned by the situation
in Iraq and Afghanistan where Iran is indirectly involved in the
political, military and economic processes. This situation requires
the centralization of resources in the Afghani and Iraqi directions.
But the processes, which were initiated by the revolutionary movement
in North Africa, brought to the flourishing of the activity of the
Shiite communities in Yemen and Bahrain; this processes may bring to
the strengthening of the role of the Shiite factor in those countries,
Despite the fact that Iran was not fully ready to such a scenario,
nevertheless, it can be mentioned that at least in Bahrain the Shiite
revolutionary wave, though not very active, was supported and urged
by Tehran.
Iran and processes in Bahrain Direct participation of Iran in the
events in Bahrain was restricted by the fact that after the Islamic
revolution the authorities in Bahrain restricted the entrance and
involvement of the Iranian citizens in the economic life of the
country. As a result there are almost no Iranian investments in
Bahrain and there is no Iranian community in that country which in
its turn restricts the possibilities of Tehran to be involved in the
life there and to cast a direct support to the local Shiite community.
But anti-governmental movement, which aroused in Bahrain, came to
prove that Shiite community is organized to a certain degree and it
is managed from abroad, as there is no other way to explain the high
level of preparedness and organization of the rallies. The arrests by
the security services of Bahrain in March revealed the mechanisms,
which helped Iran to be involved in the developments in Bahrain. It
turned out that it was implemented with the help of the Lebanese ally
of Tehran “Hezbollah” which is a Shiite-Arab organization which managed
to penetrate Bahrain under the guise of cheep labour, specialists and
investors. Most of those who were arrested on suspicion of urging and
managing the revolutionary developments turned out to be the members of
“Hezbollah” and the citizens of Lebanon.
But the most interesting is how the Lebanese Shiites managed to
penetrate into Bahrain; in order the local authorities did not suspect
them in being connected with “Hezbollah” they using their ties with
the migration service of Lebanon got the record in their passports
that they were Arab Christians and arrived to Bahrain as Christians,
thus avoiding control and inspections.
In total 200 Lebanese citizens who worked in the country with
“Christian passports” were arrested and deported from Bahrain. During
the visit of the former prime-minister of Lebanon S. Hariri they came
to an agreement that the rest of the Lebanese citizens (about 500
people) would not be deported. After the deportation of “Hezbollah”
members the political activity in Bahrain reduced. On March 27 the
Bahraini navy forces arrested a ship coming from the UAE on which
a huge amount of weapons, mainly firearms was found; as later the
investigation of the documentation proved it they were sent from Iran
(most probably for using in street fights).
In fact, the authorities of Bahrain managed to suppress the
revolutionary wave in the country with the help of Saudi military
forces, which can be considered as defeat of Iran and “Hezbollah” but
in our opinion only in a short term. The point is that in Bahrain where
almost 70% of the 600 thousand population is Shiite, the issues of
political and economic reforms have not been solved. Thus, going back
on a promise of reforms, which was given on the initial stage of the
protest, the authorities of Bahrain, like it or not, left only one way
of changing the situation to the Shiite community, i.e. revolution;
and there will be attempts of revolution in the years to come.
Iraq The echo of the events in North Africa has reached Iraq too; the
political struggle has stirred up there. Taking into consideration
the fact that anti-governmental protests in Iraq may bring to a
new situation, Iran and its Iraqi allies decided not to oppose the
public outcry but rather to manage it. Joint statements protecting
the protest actions in different cities of Iraq held on March 3 were
made by the leader of “Al-Iraqiya” parliamentary group A. Alaoui and
radical Shiite activist M. Al-Sadr, who are directly supported by
Tehran. They demanded for the government of N. Al-Maliki to carry out
serious reforms based on the demands of the people. Back on March 7th
a new and stronger wave of protest aroused in Baghdad which processed
under the slogan “Maliki is a liar”. On May 11, within the scope of
the “Day of Anger”, the meetings were arranged in 8 Iraqi cities.
In general, though the Iraqi government has not lost its mandate in
a consequence of the protests, but 8 mayors resigned, which caused
serious struggle for the posts of the heads of the local governments
in the country.
Judging by the publications of the Iranian press and statements of the
Iranian figures, today Tehran is interested in such a development,
as for Iran the overthrow of the Iraqi government may constitute
serious danger. Here we first of all should mean that the overthrow
of the government may cause new civil war and as a result the United
States may delay the withdrawal of their troops from Iraq which has
been expected by Iran for quite a long time.
Iraqi crisis constitutes serious danger for Turkey too. This is how
the visit of the Turkish prime-minister Erdogan on March 28-29 to Iraq
can be explained; during that visit he voiced support to the Iraqi
government, promised to increase the current turnover between Turkey
and Iraq from $7.4 billion to $10 billion and later up to $30 billion.
By the way, Erdogan made very important step in regard to the local
Shiite community – he visited the tomb of Imam Ali in Shiite En-Najaf
and prayed in the local Shiite mosque which was covered broadly by
the international mass media as Erdogan was the fist Sunnite leader
who made such a thing. At the meeting with the spiritual leader of
Shiite community A. al-Sistani he called for the Islamic unity.
Of course, it can be assumed that such a step by Erdogan was
conditioned by the aspiration of Turkey to become a leader in the
Muslim world, but it is more probable that Ankara even through the
cooperation with Iran tries to strengthen the current status-quo in
Iraq which has become possible due to the stance of the Shiites.
Lebanon and Syria The developments in Syria and Lebanon are of great
importance for Iran. The positions of prime-minister N. Mikati’s
government, who came to office with the help of “Hezbollah”, can not
be considered as strong, taking into consideration the fact that both
“Hezbollah” and Syria, which supports Mikati, suffer rather hard times.
In Lebanon the former prime-minister S. Hariri is becoming more and
more active; he managed to arrange big rallies in Beirut and Lebanese
Tripoli (the birthplace of Mikati), thus demanding for political
changes. The response of “Hezbollah” to the growth of the authority of
S. Hariri who works under the patronage of the Americans was restricted
as, according to the international sources, Washington managed to cut
off the flow of funds from Iran. Under the pressure of Washington the
Lebanese authorities closed Lebanese-Canadian bank which transferred
several billion US dollars from Iran to the accounts of “Hezbollah”.
At the same time Syria has restricted its participation in the Lebanese
affairs as Syrian authorities had to handle the difficult situation
in their own country. The Sunnite movement and Kurdish factors, which
grow very fast, constitute serious danger to both Syrian authorities
and Iran. Turkey is also interested in preserving the ruling regime
in Syria as the formation of the second semi-independent Kurdistan
near its borders is not in its interests.
Conclusion It can be mentioned that the Shiite communities in
the Middle East which has received the assistance of Iran for many
decades, are direct participants of the revolutionary developments
in the Arab world.
Under the changed situation those communities and Iran can gain
an opportunity to consolidate their positions but, however, those
processes contain serious challenges too. Instability can seriously
affect the positions of “Hezbollah”, the authority of Bashar Al-Assad
(the ally of “Hezbollah” and Iran), as well as disturb the balance
in Iraq which is of great importance for Iran.
Return
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Another materials of author
~UDOMESTIC POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN IRAN[04.04.2011]
~UON DILETTANTISM, PATRIOTISM AND GAS PRICES IN ARMENIA AND
EUROPE[21.03.2011] ~UIRAN AND POLITICAL CRISIS IN EGYPT[21.02.2011]
~UIRAN IN 2011: POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENTS [03.02.2011] ~UDEVELOPMENTS IN
IRAN AND ROUND IT[09.12.2010]
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