Garry Kasparov: This Cannot Last Forever
Interview by Shahin Hajiyev
MOSCOW. May 19, 2011: In an interview with Turan, Garry Kasparov, the
ex-world champion in chess and the well-known public figure, predicted
Putin’s participation in the upcoming presidential elections in
Russia. He also predicted tough times for the authoritarian regime in
Russia.
Our communication began in Oslo at the session of the Freedom Forum
and continued on the plane on route from Oslo to Moscow. Our long
conversation ended only after landing at the Sheremetyevo Airport. At
first it seemed that Kasparov did not wish to start a conversation
with a representative of the Azerbaijani press, but our common
democratic values allowed us to break the ice of mistrust.
Mr. Kasparov, the situation in Russia, the upcoming presidential
elections, and Putin’s plans and role (in particular his call to
create the Popular Front in Russia), predictions about the future of
the country – millions of people are interested in all of these
issues. What do you think about this?
Today, most authoritarian regimes cannot live in a vacuum; they are
not isolated from the rest of the world, except for such countries
such as North Korea, Cuba and some others. In the early 21st century
the elite authoritarian and dictatorship countries were firmly linked
with the West. But today it is not enough to come to power, it is more
important to preserve wealth and in order to accomplish that the money
must be kept in the Western banks.
The situation is similar in many countries of the former Soviet Union,
except perhaps Georgia. Russia’s role and weight is special. The
Kremlin cannot hold elections which take place in Azerbaijan or
Turkmenistan. Moscow needs the image of a democratic country despite
the existence of such a ruler like Ramzan Kadyrov in Chechnya.
However, the economic situation in the country has seriously
deteriorated. Putin has ascended to power on the wave of optimism.
Contrary to Boris Yeltzin he was younger and healthy. His assent to
power coincided with the increase in oil prices resulting in improved
living standards and enhanced public confidence. There was hope that
life was improving and it was irrevocable. However, the situation has
now changed. The reason is the drop in the economy and it happened not
in 2008 during the global crisis, but now. The people feel they have
been deceived, because impoverishment and decline of general living
standards is taking place while rich men, who are not connected with
the government, are only getting richer.
In this regard, in 2008, Putin’s `global problem’ was how to retire,
but still save his money and remain probably the richest man in the
world. So, when he said that he felt like a slave, bound by chains in
the galley, he was sincere, he meant that he could not give up power
without losing his billions.
The case with Medvedev, who was employed, was a short-term success,
but has not solved the problem of preserving the wealth. Moreover, he
has created a new problem. Some people within Medvedev’s inner circle
and the Russian elite are seriously considering the possibility of
returning to the beginning of 2000, when the Russian president’s
authority was not as absolute, and he had more freedom. I call this
layer “a collective Medvedev,” because Medvedev himself does not solve
anything. However, this layer has increased considerably lately, and
probably Medvedev himself wants to return to the past. Therefore,
Putin is concerned and is trying to return to power. I think that he
will ballot for presidential elections. However, to obtain support of
society he should consolidate political power. For this purpose he has
announced his intention to create a Popular Front. And now Putin is
cleaning the political field to fill it with the forces that guarantee
him at least 60% of the vote. But at the moment, he does not have such
a support.
So you do not believe the idea that Russia can be ruled by a tandem,
and that Medvedev could stay for a second term?
Medvedev really solves nothing, though he often tries to play an
independent role and that’s what annoys Putin. I think that he will
dismiss not only Mironov, other communists and liberal-democrats will
also be affected. And this is not only a manifestation of Putin’s
nature; this is the logic of the dictatorship, which takes regular
victims. Stalin also followed that logic and periodically cleaned out
his surroundings by changing and shuffling personnel. Therefore, I
believe that the electoral sweep will be followed by a personnel one.
Do you think that Russian society will accept all of that?
I have a feeling that not. Most people in Russia do not welcome that
absolute power or an excessive concentration of power in one hand. But
the authoritarian regime punishes for criticism, and the latest
example is Sergey Mironov. They even want to exclude him form the pro
governmental `Fair Russia” party and take away his parliamentary
mandate. Most people are not happy with economic situation, and more
people tend to move to the West, taking their money and property. It
is bad that most of them are young and educated people. The other
problem is that indignation can be expressed in other form, as it
happened in the Arab world. Of course, secret services in Russia are
very strong, much stronger that secret forces of Gaddafi. Therefore, I
do not expect similar events in the coming months, and I think that
Putin will be able to mobilize all resources to achieve his main
objective.
However deterioration of the situation may start with any event such
as this ugly Olympics in Sochi, which has causes serious
dissatisfaction because of corruption and many of the problems.
People’s reactions can be spontaneous and there can be a social
explosion.
Why are supporters of liberal ideas in Russia so weak and scanty?
The opposition is weak because the society itself is in a state of
apathy. There is split among the opposition forces. The situation is
similar to the situation in Azerbaijan. But people in Russia
understand that they must unite. And it should find a leader, but
achieve a normal election process in the country. I think that the
opposition coalition supporting the reforms will include the leftists
and the right-wingers. Political forces understand more clearly that
that the idea of presidential power in Russia is equivalent to
authoritarianism. That’s why we need division of powers and the
transfer of the power to the parliament.
What is your political activity in Russia?
I am one of those who are trying to implement all of the above
mentioned, but my work is not so noticeable because of the censorship
and restrictions of the authorities. We try to use the new Internet
technologies to raise this consolidation to a new level. One of such
ideas is the creation of the Internet-parliament, where anyone can
register and transparently debate any issue. The number of the
parliament members can be 5-10 or 100,000. That is, we want to use the
Internet to mobilize the society.
Now people see that they are powerless and their voices are not heard,
but Internet Parliament will help them to feel the force and the
number of supporters. It will activate the society and provide an
opportunity to understand that people are participants of the process
and they are not alone.
Authoritarian regimes always say there is not alternative to them.
They say something like this: may be we are not good, but there is
nothing better. I think the same situation is in Azerbaijan. So, the
Internet gives parliament the opportunity to show that it is not. And
this opinion must come from the ordinary people.
My personal plans and desire is to return Russia to the democratic way
of development. I have no personal ambitions and do not want some more
glory, I have enough of it. I have many plans in America, where I have
the Kasparov Foundation. We have over 3,500 volunteers in America who
are engaged in the distribution of programs, and twice a year I train
talented children. But all this is out of Russia! Since 2007 I have
not had a single public lecture in this country. Over the past six
years I have had only three lectures, but only in foreign companies.
It means that here I can even nothing.
Our fund together with the European Chess Union is going to arrange
presentation of our chess programs as recommendation. I am writing a
new book on political innovation and modern processes, which will be
released in February next year.
I have corporate lectures on the tactics and strategy of
decision-making. In particular, I had two such seminars for engineers
of General Electric. In coming weeks, I will have similar events in
Dubai and Johannesburg. I have just participated in the Freedom Forum
in Oslo, so I am not bored.
What do you think about political tendencies in the world?
I am sure that the world is on the verge of great changes. The viscous
and disgusting heritage of the 20th century, dictatorship regimes,
began to disintegrate now in the 21st century. The trend has changed.
World order will change; new forms will replace the old ones. Events
in the Arab world have proved it once again.
The main difference between Azerbaijan and Russia is the fact that you
have a monarchical element. I think your power is solving the same
problems as Putin. The issue is that such small countries as
Azerbaijan have an opportunity to maneuver, often changing directions
and find the necessary combination to motivate the necessity of
preserving power of the ruling regime.
Plus, of course, the Karabakh factor that Ilham Aliyev is using for
its perpetual legitimacy. Similar situation is in Armenia, and the
presence of military conflict is always an opportunity to stifle the
democratic values and institutions.
In this connection Ilham Aliyev is very skillful politician, because
he has inherited certain qualities of his father. He manages to find
common ground with foreign partners, what suits America, Russia, and
Iran; so the opposition should not expect that under the current
situation partners will leave turn away from him. In addition, the
presence of oil in the country at its current price, allow Aliyev to
settle all existing problems and issues. But it is also clear that
this cannot last forever.
* Garry Kasparov (born as Weinstein) was born April 13, 1963 in Baku.
He is 13th World Chess Champion (1985.) Kasparov headed FIDE rating
from 1985 to 2006, except 1994. In January 1990 he moved from Baku to
Moscow. Kasparov became the world champion in 1985 when he won Anatoly
Karpov.
In 1993 Kasparov and the new challenger Nigel Short left FIDE; FIDE
deprived Kasparov of his title, and up to 2006 there were only two
world champions – on the FIDE version and on the `classic” version. In
2000, Kasparov lost a world championship match to Vladimir Kramnik.
In 2005, Kasparov left his chess career and became a politician.
Currently he is one of the prominent Russian opposition members:
Chairman of the United Civil Front, one of the co-chairs of the
All-Russian Civil Congress. In 2008 he became one of the founders and
a member of the United Democratic Movement “Solidarity”.
Oslo-Moscow-Baku
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