EXPERTS WELCOME VISIT BY ARMENIAN CSOS, BUT RAISE DOUBTS ON EFFECTS
Today’s Zaman
July 22 2011
Turkey
The Monday visit of five civil society organizations (CSO) from
Armenia to the Turkish Foreign Ministry raised hopes with experts,
but possible effects of the visit on Armenian foreign policy still
remain to be seen, leaving many doubts on the future of relations
between the two countries.
The visit by the representatives of five CSOs, organized by the
Ankara-based Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey (TEPAV), is
considered another brick to fill in the gap, even though the prospect
of a serious change brought on by civil organizations looks dim in
the current political environment.
The gap between the neighbors has existed for decades as political
roadmaps in the past consistently ran into dead ends for both sides.
Although the official process remains shackled, experts consider
visits from the CSOs a slow but steady contribution on the long road
to normalized relations.
Professor Kamer Kasım, vice chairman of the Ankara-based International
Strategic Research Organization (USAK), thinks it is a good sign
that the representatives of the five CSOs met with Foreign Minister
Ahmet Davutoglu. The effect of these meetings could bear the power
to finally convince Armenia to initiate a transformation.
“It is very hard to penetrate Armenia,” Kasım told Today’s
Zaman, noting the anticipated effects of the visit on the Armenian
politicians. “The country is under pressure from the most radical
diasporas and the authoritarian structure puts a strain on its
democracy. But a meeting is always significant in that it has the
potential to at least initiate transformation,” said the expert.
Sounding more pessimistic on concrete solutions on a diplomatic level,
Kasım warned that a solution may not be available unless Armenia
agrees to halt its efforts seeking international recognition for the
alleged genocide and develop a different stance on the Nagorno-Karabakh
problem, developments that may simply take too long to happen at the
current pace, if they ever do.
Restating the fragility of ties between Turkey and Azerbaijan with
regard to any possible bargain with Armenia, Kasım said Turkey should
opt for making itself as clear as possible in talks with both countries
to spare everyone the possible damage. “With both sides having so much
to consider, the solution is going to take much effort,” Kasım said.
Relations between Turkey and Armenia seemed to have improved at certain
times in the past but Turkey refuses to strike a deal with the country
if the deal does not extend to the troublesome Nagorno-Karabakh issue
and Azerbaijani rights to the area. Similarly, Armenia’s international
campaign for the recognition the alleged genocide riles both sides
as April 24 — the memorial day for the mass killings — approaches
every year.
“One problem I see with these meetings is that they always happen
in Turkey and that parties already in favor of improving relations
attend them,” Hasan Kanbolat, chairman of the Center for Middle
Eastern Strategic Studies (ORSAM), told Today’s Zaman, while calling
for something to be initiated to bring more radical voices together.
Kanbolat suggested that these meetings might function to melt the
ice between the people, who are not too different from one another
in many aspects, saying, “It is not uncommon for a radical from the
Armenian diaspora to enjoy a fine dinner along the Bosporus and change
his mind about Turkey and its people’s attitude toward Armenians.”
Despite the burden of hyper-sensitivities and conditional handshakes,
experts still see the light and remain hopeful. “CSOs may not have
much power in Armenian politics, but things will just have to improve
one step at a time,” Kanbolat stated.