Business & Economy: Fitch Affirms Armenia’s Rating With Stable Outlo

FITCH AFFIRMS ARMENIA’S RATING WITH STABLE OUTLOOK

Mediamax
Sept 2 2011
Armenia

Yerevan/Mediamax/. Fitch Ratings international rating agency has
affirmed Armenia’s Long-term foreign and local currency Issuer
Default Ratings (IDR) at ‘BB-‘ level. The Outlook on the Long-term
IDRs is Stable.

At the same time, Fitch has affirmed the Short-term local currency IDR
at ‘B’ and Country Ceiling at ‘BB’ on September 1, Mediamax reports
quoting Fitch

“The affirmation of Armenia’s ratings reflects the fact that the
authorities are reducing fiscal and external imbalances in line with
their IMF-backed economic policy program,” says Charles Seville,
Director in Fitch’s Sovereign group, adding that the Armenian
economy is vulnerable to external shocks as the government debt and
gross external debt are materially higher than they were before the
2008-2009 crisis.

Fitch expects the government to reduce the fiscal deficit to 3.9% of
GDP in 2011. Withdrawing fiscal stimulus, the government narrowed the
deficit to 5% of GDP in 2010. Consolidation plans rely on a mixture
of restraining spending and increasing tax collection – a perennial
challenge. The government is targeting further reduction to 3.2%
of GDP in 2012, an election year.

Fitch also notes that the current account deficit (CAD) has narrowed
in 2010-2011, driven by a revival in exports. This trend is expected
to continue in 2012-2013. A forecast deficit of 12% of GDP in 2011
will be financed by external borrowing and FDI of around 6% of GDP.

Fitch forecasts real GDP growth of 4%-5% in 2011-2013, close to
medium-term potential growth. According to Charles Seville, the
CB is currently reducing dollarization and strengthens the role of
Armenian dram.

Fitch notes that emerging from the 2009 recession without requiring
solvency support the small, well-capitalized Armenian financial sector
does not pose a major risk to sovereign creditworthiness. Write-offs
have reduced non-performing loans to 3% of assets from a 2009 peak
of over 10%. CBA is tightening regulation and encouraging local
currency lending.

“Pressure on reserves or the dram – following a global slowdown or
shock to Russian growth – would weaken the external balance sheet
and could lead to negative rating action. Armenia’s ability to absorb
further external shocks has been weakened by the crisis, which pushed
up government debt to 40% of GDP (in line with the ‘BB’ median) and
GXD. Renewed domestic or external (surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh)
political tension could also lead to negative rating action”,
notes Fitch.

The agency also notes that if Armenia follows through with fiscal
reforms and narrow the twin deficits this would put upward pressure
on the ratings. A sustained reduction in dollarization would also
be positive.

Soccer: Armenia Ease To Win Over Minnows Andorra

ARMENIA EASE TO WIN OVER MINNOWS ANDORRA

Irish Examiner

Sept 2 2011

Andorra 0 Armenia 3

Armenia picked up their third win in Euro 2012 qualifying after easing
past Group B’s bottom side Andorra.

Marcos Pizzelli gave the visitors the lead 10 minutes before half-time
at the Estadi Comunal in Andorra la Vella and Gevorg Ghazaryan doubled
their advantage in the 57th minute.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan completed the scoring with a stoppage-time penalty
at the end of the game after Andorra defender Ildefons Lima was sent
off in conceding the spot-kick.

The result lifts fourth-placed Armenia onto 11 points but is not enough
to gain them any places in the standings, while Andorra remain rooted
to the foot of the table with no points from their seven games.

Armenia had already seen Ghazaryan fire an effort wide from the edge
of the area and an Artur Sarkisov shot tipped around the post by
Andorra goalkeeper Jose Antonio Gomez by the time they went ahead
through Pizzelli.

The Metalurg Donetsk forward found the top right-hand corner of the
net from outside the box to record his third goal in qualifying.

That was the only strike separating the sides at the break, but Armenia
started the second period looking determined to put further distance
between themselves and their hosts.

Sarkisov and Edgar Manucharyan both tried their luck from outside the
area without hitting the target before Pizzelli, in the 54th minute,
brought a brilliant parry out of Gomez.

Gomez then easily dealt with visiting captain Sargis Hovsepyan’s
65th-minute shot before the home custodian produced another fine stop
to keep out Ghazaryan’s drilled right-footer five minutes later.

Gomez could not continue keeping the Armenia attack at bay, though,
and the visitors doubled their advantage when Ghazaryan fired in from
close range.

Armenia added a third goal late on when Mkhitaryan slotted home
from the penalty spot after Lima had brought down Karlen Lazarian –
a foul that saw the Andorra skipper shown a straight red card.

http://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/sport/armenia-ease-to-win-over-minnows-andorra-519010.html

TBILISI: Armenia Offers Agricultural Products To Georgia

ARMENIA OFFERS AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS TO GEORGIA

The Messenger
Sept 2 2011
Georgia

The Armenian Minister of Agriculture, Samvel Karapetyan stated that
Armenia can export fruits, vegetables and other agricultural products
to Georgia. Georgia’s Ambassador to Armenia Tengiz Sharmanashvili
offered to export corn to Armenia from Georgia. Discussions showed
that Armenia’s agriculture is more developed than Georgia’s and
the Georgian Government has expressed interest in sharing Armenia’s
experience in developing agriculture in Georgia.

BAKU: Armenian Children Illegally Residing In Turkey To Receive Educ

ARMENIAN CHILDREN ILLEGALLY RESIDING IN TURKEY TO RECEIVE EDUCATION

Trend Sept 2 2011 Azerbaijan

The children of Armenians illegally living in Turkey will be educated
at Turkish schools intended for national minorities in 2011, the
Turkish Education Ministry told Trend.

“The decision was made in accordance with Education Minister Omer
Dincer’s order,” a report reads.

The Armenian community’s proposal directed to the Education Ministry
was supported.

During his visit to Britain in March 2010, Turkish Prime Minister Recep
Tayyip Erdogan said if Armenia continues to disrupt stability in the
region, Ankara will expel 100,000 Armenians illegally living in Turkey.

Two Men In A Boat

TWO MEN IN A BOAT
by Ivan Sukhov

Moscow News
WPS Agency
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
August 12, 2011 Friday
Russia

PRESIDENTS DMITRY MEDVEDEV (RUSSIA) AND ILHAM ALIYEV (AZERBAIJAN)
MET IN SOCHI; Dmitry Medvedev and Ilham Aliyev discussed Karabakh
conflict resolution.

President of Russia Dmitry Medvedev and Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev
met in Sochi this Tuesday. It was their first meeting following the
Russian-Azerbaijani-Armenian summit last month where no progress at
all had been made in the matter of the Karabakh conflict resolution.

No official statements were made after the negotiations in
Sochi, yesterday. Medvedev said before the talks, “Let us have a
straightforward discourse on what is to be done now and what turn the
events might take following our previous meeting in Kazan and other
analogous meetings.”

A source within the Presidential Administration said that the
discourse had been straightforward indeed. The leaders did their
best to understand who or what was impairing the process of conflict
resolution.

The trilateral meeting in Kazan this July had been something expected
with anticipation in Yerevan, Baku, and Nagorno-Karabakh itself. It
was thought that a framework document on Karabakh conflict resolution
principles would be signed there. It would have become a crowning
accomplishment of Russian diplomacy and Medvedev himself. On the
other hand, this signing would have changed the status quo and that
could result in another outbreak of hostilities.

Skeptics had been correct to sneer at the expectations. No documents
were signed in Kazan. Baku put forth a whole number of new demands. At
some point all involved parties even feared that the trilateral format
might actually become history.

Fortunately, the latest developments and meetings in Sochi dispelled
these fears.

Medvedev emphasized in an interview several days ago, on the third
anniversary of the Russian-Georgian conflict, that however complicated
ethnic and territorial conflicts might be, even extended negotiations
were better than actual attempts to settle the matter by sheer
strength of arms. In fact, Medvedev said that he was talking about
Karabakh. His words caused a public outcry in Azerbaijan whose state
officials including Aliyev himself regularly remind whoever cares to
listen of their readiness to reconquer Karabakh.

Aliyev was quite non-aggressive in Sochi. “I’d like to thank you once
again for the efforts to settle the Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict over
Nagorno-Karabakh,” he told the host. “We of Azerbaijan appreciate
what you have been doing.” Aliyev called the Karabakh conflict the
main threat to regional security.

A source within the Kremlin said that the period of mutual
disappointment and frustration with each other seemed to be over.

Medvedev will meet with his Armenian counterpart Serj Sargsjan at the
informal summit of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization
in Astana (Kazakhstan) scheduled to begin on August 12.

Armenia Recognizes The New Power In Libya

ARMENIA RECOGNIZES THE NEW POWER IN LIBYA

news.am
Sept 2 2011
Armenia

Yerevan /Mediamax/. Armenia recognizes the Libyan Transitional National
Assembly as a legitimate power.

Spokesperson for Armenian Foreign Ministry Tigran Balayan reported
that the relevant note was handed over through Libyan Embassy to
Paris on August 31.

On September 1, the oppositional Armenian National Congress called
on Armenian authorities to recognize the new power in Libya.

Mediamax notes that the Republic of Armenia established diplomatic
relations with Libyan Arab Jamahiriya only nine years after declaration
of Armenia’s independence, in June 2000. A year later, in July 2001,
the current Deputy Foreign Minister of Armenia Sergey Manasaryan was
appointed Armenia’s Non-Resident Ambassador to Libya.

In February 2011, Armenia evacuated 3 Armenian citizens from Libya
who were on a study and business there.

Yerevan Gifted Equipment To Karabakh Capital

YEREVAN GIFTED EQUIPMENT TO KARABAKH CAPITAL

news.am
Sept 2 2011
Armenia

YEREVAN. – The city of Yerevan granted necessary equipment for public
parks and street lights of Stepanakert on the occasion of the 20th
year of independence of Karabakh, press service of Yerevan City Hall
informs Armenian News-NEWS.am.

Besides, the only current operating library of Stepanakert was granted
with 1000 art literature. Schools and kindergartens were equipped too.

Stepanakert will have a new system to manage the emergency situations.

The city hall has a special equipped room for that reason. Highly
specialized doctors from Yerevan have helped many people in Stepanakert
for three days for free. They also distributed medical peels and
conducted surgeries.

Karabakh Minister of Healthcare Sergey Movsisyan thanked the doctors
from Yerevan. The minister paid importance to the exchange of the
experience.

Karabakh Azerbaijan Direct Dialogue May Be The Next Reasonable Step

KARABAKH AZERBAIJAN DIRECT DIALOGUE MAY BE THE NEXT REASONABLE STEP
Armen Hareyan

HULIQ.com, SC

Sept 2 2011

If Armenia and Azerbaijan fail to conclude an honorable peace over the
final status of Nagorno Karabakh Republic and Madrid Principles fail,
then a direct dialogue between Baku and Stepanakert may be the next
expected step. Karabakh’s president already announced he is ready
for direct talks with Azerbaijan.

“If they come out of the Madrid proposals having discussed all matters
on the table, and if he considers that all the other solutions are
indeed exhausted, the sides will come before the next reasonable
package, which is the direct dialogue between Baku and Stepanakert.”

The is what the head of “European Integration” non-governmental
organization Karen Bekaryan told journalist in Armenia’s capital
Yerevan. The political scientist noted that it is likely that in the
near future there will come forward a new package for the settlement
of Nagorno Karabakh’s final status in which the direct talks between
Karabakh and Azerbaijan will be the key component.

Speaking on the even of the 20th anniversary of Nagorno Karabakh’s
independence Bekaryan said there are four directions that the
society in the region should pay attention. Those directions are
the negotiation process, building the democratic institutions of the
state, understanding the international background and its positively
changing attitudes toward people’s right to self-determination and
the cooperation between the republics of Armenia and Nagorno Karabakh.

Bekaryan said that there is one aspect in the negotiation process
that he considers very important, the package of “Common State.” That
concept became a deciding factor for the future direction of the
negotiation process with Azerbaijan. The political scientist said that
he is convinced that by rejecting the “Common State” with Karabakh
and agreeing instead to give Karabakh’s population a “broad autonomy”
the leadership of Azerbaijan showed that its position is not sincere
in the negotiation process.

Speaking about the building of the democratic institutions of the
state Bekaryan said that the state and democratic institutions in
Nagorno Karabakh function at much higher level than in the new states
that were recently recognized by the United Nations. Bekaryan also
noted that the international community’s attitude is changing when it
comes to accepting people’s right to self determination. He pointed
out to the newly-independent states such as Kosovo, East Timor and
Southern Sudan, saying the international community is more prone to
recognize the legitimacy of their independence. As to how well the
Armenian side can benefit from this changed attitude Bekaryan said
depends on the level of effort spent on promoting Nagorno Karabakh’s
right to self determination and raising awareness about its legitimacy.

As for the cooperation between Armenia and the Republic of Nagorno
Karabakh, the political scientist noted that Armenia’s position here
is quite clear as noted through the President’s words that Armenia will
recognize Nagorno Karabakh’s independence if Azerbaijan starts war.

http://www.huliq.com/1/karabakh-azerbaijan-direct-dialogue-may-be-next-reasonable-step-902

Armenian Children Of Illegal Status In Turkey Can Study In Schools

ARMENIAN CHILDREN OF ILLEGAL STATUS IN TURKEY CAN STUDY IN SCHOOLS

Panorama
Sept 2 2011
Armenia

“Ermenihaber.am” news site informs the children of Armenians having
illegal residence status in Turkey can study in Armenian schools.

According to the source, Archbishop Aram Ateshyan’s two-year-old
struggle for the education of Armenian children in the local schools
has finally been successfully finished.

Turkish PM Erdogan authorized Education Minister of Turkey Omer Dincer
to sign a decree, which says children of Armenians who have illegal
residence status can study in Armenian schools.

“We’ve received the long anticipated permit. We’re happy. Though
those children will be invited pupils, they won’t pass exams and get
any diploma, we plan to make certificates for them saying they have
finished school,” Aram Ateshyan said.

American Journal Of Psychiatry: Preventing Genocide: Practical Steps

PREVENTING GENOCIDE: PRACTICAL STEPS TOWARD EARLY DETECTION AND EFFECTIVE ACTION

American Psychiatric Association

September 2011

“Out of the crooked timber of humanity,” as Kant and Isaiah Berlin
powerfully assert, “nothing entirely straight can be made.”

Is it possible to understand, confront, and even prevent genocide?

Has much been learned and done? Can we, as psychiatrists and
citizens, do anything about it? David Hamburg-for many decades one
of the world’s most thoughtful and distinguished psychiatrists and
a significant figure in international thinking about mass violence,
war, and genocide-marshals a rather staggering array of evidence and
ideas from many disciplines in his current book, which is an updated
and revised version of a 2008 book with the same title.

Dr. Hamburg, for those unfamiliar with his life, is a psychiatrist
with a public health background who has been a professor at Stanford
and at Harvard and is now a Distinguished Scholar at Weill/Cornell.

He has been President of the Institute of Medicine, the National
Academy of Science, and the American Association for the Advancement
of Science. His many awards include the U.S. Presidential Medal of
Freedom. He was president of the Carnegie Corporation for 14 years and
has served on and/or chaired countless major national and international
advisory boards. His books include Learning To Live Together, No More
Killing Fields, and Today’s Children.

History, politics, economics, diplomacy, war, psychology and
psychiatry, sociology, anthropology, and biology are all relevant to
Dr. Hamburg’s tasks in the current book, which stresses public policy
and prevention. His sources, quotations, references, and interactions
are heavy with names from academia but also names from differently
powerful worlds, such as Annan, Carter, Gorbachev, Tutu, Solana,
Vance, Mandela, Nunn, Sachs, Sen, and Urquhart as well as Armenia,
Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Cambodia, Rwanda/Burundi,
and Darfur.

Dr. Hamburg reminds us that genocide is old, not new, even if mankind’s
weapons have become on the whole more lethal, and that genocide usually
follows years of clear warning signs. After a general overview, he
devotes a full chapter to each of several notable and much-studied
illustrative 19th and 20th century examples, including what led up
to them and what was and was not done: Turkey/Armenia, Nazi Germany,
and Burundi/Rwanda/Tutsi/Hutu. He then devotes a more hopeful full
chapter to a place and recent time where genocide might well have
happened but did not: South Africa at the end of Apartheid.

Dr. Hamburg has a patient, tenacious, and hopeful interest in
prevention on a grand scale. That he is so widely informed and
reasonable may make anyone, such as the current reviewer, who is a bit
more pessimistic than Dr. Hamburg appears to be about these issues,
feel a bit wrong or even churlish. I would like to be as optimistic
as Dr. Hamburg is in this book, but my psychiatric views about
individual biopsychosocial people and the primitive and destructive
impulses of our species, including mankind’s capacity for creating,
ignoring, tolerating, and even enjoying savagery, violence, war,
and genocide, may be darker than Dr. Hamburg’s view of them. I
also read some of the political evidence in a darker light than
I think Dr. Hamburg does. That area includes perennial spoken and
unspoken, hugely conflicting demands within the realms of politics
and economics; the continuing usefulness, to far too many leaders,
of war and of scapegoating; people’s deep openness to propaganda and
demagoguery; what governments did and did not do before, during, and
after Turkey/Armenia, Nazi Germany, and Rwanda/Burundi; and the recent
efforts and successes by governments in narrowing the definition of
genocide for their perceived national convenience and in avoiding
calling genocide genocide, lest they be pressed to act.

That the book largely leaves out, as a likely potential agent for
change, the United States, with its current reductionist business
model as a substitute for government, seems to me to be notable and
probably realistic.

In his introduction, Dr. Hamburg emphasizes proactive help to
countries in trouble. He recommends the formulation and dissemination
of specific response options to deal with early warning signs. He
draws together tools and strategies to prevent mass violence. He
clarifies what international organizations can do and emphasizes the
roles of democracies. He looks at preventive uses of cooperation,
conflict resolution, and democratic socioeconomic development. He
suggests developing two large cooperating international centers
for prevention of genocide, as well as many smaller contributory
structures. He suggests tasks for the next decade (e.g., in expanding
linkage). And he urges encouraging leaders by molding a constituency
for prevention by public education. He is concerned with education,
or training, for hatred as one reason to insist on education for
social and civic strength. All these goals would seem to many of us
reasonable and admirable.

He has a section called Pillars of Prevention, with chapters on
preventive diplomacy, democracy and prevention of mass violence,
equitable socioeconomic development, education for survival, human
rights abuses and international justice, and restraints on weaponry.

He supplements that with a list of what he considers a few recent
advances in preventing mass violence, such as Kofi Annan’s work in
Kenya in 2008, and some restructuring of the United Nations.

He is an expert on relevant institutions and organizations, and this
becomes the focus of the third major section of the book, which
looks at the United Nations, the European Union, the Organization
for Security and Cooperation in Europe, NATO, and many smaller
potential contributors, several of which he has helped to build and/or
strengthen. He does several times note-without, in my judgment, fully
acknowledging the power of-obstacles and limitations and conflicting
aims in those organizations.

It is an impressive book, painted on a large canvas. One might
wish that the next edition be a bit more tightly edited to reduce
repetitiveness and perhaps to leave room for further development of
thought, or books, on some unwieldy areas only briefly touched on, such
as religion, the psychology of ideologies, nationalism and tribalism,
the sociobiology of aggression, and perhaps even the implications of
climate change. Overall, however, this book will usefully challenge
some of any reader’s basic values and assumptions.

It is a hopeful, widely informed, widely thoughtful, and quite readable
one-man multidisciplinary survey of an unpleasant and important topic
that makes many of us angry and most of us sad and uncomfortable.

Footnotes

The author reports no financial relationships with commercial
interests.

Book review accepted for publication March 2011.

http://ajp.psychiatryonline.org/cgi/content/full/168/9/992