WHEN WILL THE GUN BE FIRED?
Georgia Today
Sept 8 2011
Georgia
Not unlike the classical drama scenario where a gun hanging on the
wall at the beginning of the play inevitably leads to it firing in the
end, the political drama currently unfolding in the Caucasus may be
following the same dramatic script. In August of 2008, the gun that
hung so ominously for five years between Moscow and Tbilisi went off
too. Now the same gun is hanging between Armenia and Azerbaijan and
we are waiting for the silence to be broken once again.
The Director of National Intelligence of the United States Dennis Blair
made an alarming statement while appearing in the US Senate recently,
when he assessed the situation in the Caucasus as being more and more
unstable, pointing out that conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia
may resume at any time.
This statement by Dennis Blair was preceded by an equally portentous
statement made by Ilham Alyiev, which he had up until now, refrained
from making previously: “As soon as we see that dialogue with Yerevan
is fruitless and that Yerevan is trying to win time and leave the
conflict frozen endlessly, we will stop negotiations.” According to
Alyiev, Azerbaijan will try to resolve the problem through military
means.
“We will liberate our land from the occupants, which we are legally
authorized to do. The army of Azerbaijan and society should be ready
for this at any time. We will never recognize [the] independence of
Nagorno Karabakh,” Alyiev said.
Press secretary of Armenia’s President Serzh Sargsyan responded to
Alyiev’s statement with the tone of threat saying that as soon as
the negotiations were stopped, Armenia would recognize independence
of Nagorno Karabakh.
According to Georgian military expert Giorgi Tavdgiridze, the situation
between Yerevan and Baku is so tense that everything may depend on
a single shot. He says starting a war would be a very hard decision
for Azerbaijan as the Karabakh army is well-armed and there is always
the looming specter of the Russian military (Russia has a military
base and units deployed in Yerevan).
“With this step, both countries would be embroiled in a long-term war.
Needless to say, it is also quite obvious that the military mood is
increasing in Azerbaijan. In moral terms, they are ready to start the
war. Now everything will depend on one shot [or] one provocation,”
Tavdgiridze says.
In a time where the issue of possible war between Armenia and
Azerbaijan balances on a single shot, Georgian President Mikheil
Saakashvili made a sensational statement during Ilham Alyiev’s visit
to Batumi.
The Georgian president suggested to his Azerbaijani counterpart to
establish confederate relations: “Several years ago I was talking
about establishing confederate relations; in fact, the actual relations
between the countries exceed ordinary relations between countries.”
According to Saakashvili, “We are a continuation of each other… We
are all parts of one organism; this is why an issue painful for
Azerbaijan is painful to Georgia and Azerbaijan had reactions to all
issues painful for Georgia.”
At first glance, this statement by Saakashvili should have entailed
a degree of irritation towards Yerevan. However, nothing of the kind
occurred. If you discount the statements of a few Armenian political
scientists, on an official level, relations between Tbilisi and
Yerevan have become even friendlier after the statement.
What can this all mean? As the development of events show,
Saakashvili’s statement is not the only strange thing in this
situation.
After the Georgian parliament abolished the agreement with Russia on
military transportation to the Gyumri base in Armenia via Georgia,
the tempo of arms flow to Armenia should have been reduced.
However, it appears that this did not help the case. The delivery of
military cargoes significantly increased between Russia and Armenia
via direct flights through the air.
In order to maintain good relations with Armenia, Georgia does not ban
the flights. However, it appearss there are other routes to deliver
arms to the Gyumri base and it is not worth spoiling relations with
Yerevan on that account..
In Tbilisi, they know very well that the Gyumri base is partially
supplied through Azerbaijan (even though Azerbaijan denies that),
which is a tactical step behalf of the official Baku line – not to
worsen relations with Moscow and to receive full information on the
potential armament of Armenia.
It appears that after the August war, the altered geopolitical
landscape in the Caucasus is getting covered by a new mist. The
Moscow-Yerevan pairing is confronting the Ankara-Baku duet while
Tbilisi is trying to strengthen its position through political
impromptus.
Whether the political status quo is maintained in the Caucasus largely
depends on the big players. Otherwise, the gun hanging on the wall
will undoubtedly be fired in the end.
By Zaza Jgharkava 8.09.2011
http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=9437