Armenians in Georgia need to become MPs in Georgian parliament

Armenians in Georgia need to become MPs in Georgian parliament – expert

news.am
January 28, 2012 | 04:38

TBILISI. – Armenian-Georgian relations have more modern issues than
decisions over the number of the Armenian schools and the issue of
churches, Georgian expert Soso Tsintsadze told Armenian News-NEWS.am.

`Taking into consideration the regional and geopolitical developments,
there is no need to get stuck in those issues,’ he said.

As for the situation of the Armenians in Georgia and the problems of
the Armenian community, the expert said that they really exist.
However, they carry social character. One of the main problems of the
Armenians in the Armenian-populated Javakhk region is the lack of
knowledge of Georgian language, which results in limited opportunities
in finding jobs in private companies and governmental institutions.
Meantime, the expert believes that a dialogue and constructive
approach is necessary to solve all those issues.

Tsinstadze also touched upon the dispute between Armenian and Georgian
churches adding it should be solved by the churches and not by secular
authorities or social circles.

He stressed particularly that the atmosphere presented by the Armenian
media on the condition of the Armenian community in Georgia does not
correspond to reality.

`If there is a problem, we should solve it together, friendly and
united, and everything will be all right,’ he concluded.

Expert says settlement program response to Turkish deportation polic

Expert says settlement program response to Turkish deportation policy

January 28, 2012 – 13:22 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Political analyst Levon Shirinyan deems possible for
Turkey to boost cooperation with Russia following French Senate’s
adoption of the bill criminalizing the Armenian Genocide denial.

Dwelling on Turkish authorities’ decision regarding deportation of
illegal migrants including the Armenians, Shirinyan stressed the need
for Armenia to `shape national settlement policy.’

Turkish authorities plan to amend Migration Act that stipulates
deportation of illegal immigrants. Many believe the move to be a
response to French Senate’s passage of the Genocide bill.

On January 23, the French Senate passed the bill criminalizing the
Armenian Genocide denial with 127 votes for and 86 against. To be
signed into law within 14 days, the bill will impose a 45,000 euro
fine and a year in prison for anyone in France who denies this crime
against humanity committed by the Ottoman Empire.

Defense Minister: No justification for soldiers’ deaths

Defense Minister: No justification for soldiers’ deaths

January 28, 2012 – 16:14 AMT

PanARMENIAN.Net – Armenian armed forces general staff keeps grappling
with the issue of tragic incidents in the army, according to Armenian
Defense Minister.

`Soldiers’ death cases can neither be justified nor mitigated,’ Seyran
Ohanyan said during a general staff sitting dedicated to the 20th
anniversary of the 20th anniversary of the Armenian army formation.

Dwelling on the outcomes of 2011, Armenian Military Prosecutor Gevorg
Kostanyan, in turn, noted that in 2011 the number of soldiers’ deaths
decreased to 36 against 54 in 2010.

France’s proposed genocide law fuels Turkey’s anger

France’s proposed genocide law fuels Turkey’s anger

Relations between France and Turkey has been strained further since the
French Parliament approved legislation that would make it illegal to deny
the Armenian genocide.

By J. Michael Kennedy, Los Angeles Times

January 27, 2012, 4:46 p.m.

Reporting from Istanbul, Turkey –
The object of the game is to see how hard a hand on the computer screen can
slap a cartoon image of French President Nicolas Sarkozy. It made its debut
only hours after the French Senate passed legislation Monday that would
criminalize denial of the Armenian genocide.

That bill has caused a furor in Turkey, further damaging a relationship
chilled by Sarkozy’s staunch opposition to Turkey’s long-standing bid for
membership in the European Union. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan
declared it racist and a “massacre of free thought.”

Turkish officials say they do not expect the issue to affect their
relationship with other European countries. But their willingness to
challenge France in a high-profile spat underscores Turkey’s effort to
establish itself as a regional leader. Some see the country as a model,
although still far from perfect, of how Middle Eastern countries might be
able to combine a moderate form of Islam with democracy and a vibrant
economy.

The latest dispute with France began late last year when a deputy in
Sarkozy’s ruling Union for a Popular Movement party introduced legislation
calling for a one-year prison sentence and a $59,000 fine for anyone who
espoused a belief that there was no genocide of Armenians under Ottoman
rule during and immediately after World War I.

The number of dead is still in dispute, ranging from 300,000 to 1.5
million. Turkey acknowledges that atrocities were committed, but denies
that there was a systematic attempt to destroy the Armenian people.

After the bill was passed by the lower house of the French Parliament in
December, Erdogan recalled Turkey’s ambassador from Paris, banned the
landing and docking of French military aircraft and warships in Turkey and
suspended political and economic talks.

Turkish critics accused Sarkozy of using the bill to gain the votes of an
estimated 500,000 French residents of Armenian descent at a time when he
appears to be in trouble in his campaign for reelection in April.

“That’s what it looks like to Turkey,” said Hugh Pope, the Istanbul-based
project director with the International Crisis Group think tank.

Sarkozy has 15 days from the bill’s Senate approval to sign it into law.
Turkish officials have launched a diplomatic push for the legislation to
instead be referred to a court to rule on whether it is constitutional.

Turkey has its own stiff rules that touch on the dispute. Provisions of the
Turkish penal code make it a crime to “insult Turkishness,” and asserting
that an Armenian genocide occurred is considered a violation.

But Pope said the atmosphere had loosened in recent years. “I remember when
you couldn’t even mention the subject,” he said.

Cengiz Aktar, a leading Turkish scholar on the issue, said discussion of it
was widely purged from accounts of the founding of modern Turkey after the
collapse of the Ottoman Empire, but that it could no longer be contained.

“The reality is that there is no more Armenian presence in Anatolia, where
they used to live for the past 3,000 years,” he said.

Fatma Muge Gocek, a Turkish-born sociologist who teaches at the University
of Michigan, said it was only a matter of time before the Turkish
government came to grips with its past, good and bad.

“It’s in the last 20 years that Turks have been trying to figure out what
happened with their past,” she said. “Acknowledgment would mean rewriting a
great deal of their history.”

Perhaps one indicator of progress occurred this month when about 20,000
people gathered in Istanbul to remember Hrant Dink, an ethnic Armenian
newspaper editor killed five years ago by an ultranationalist. Dink angered
nationalists by referring to the killings of Armenians as genocide.

Aktar said the large turnout was a reflection of changing times.

“Of course it’s not a 100% free environment, but it’s incomparably more
free that it was 10 years ago,” he said.

Kennedy is a special correspondent.

Comments (1)

Add / View comments | Discussion FAQ
David B.1 at 7:14 PM January 27, 2012

The reporter, Mr. Kennedy, has disgracefully misrepresented the French law
to LA Times readers. The French law makes no mention of Armenians at
all. It is a very, very general law covering “war crimes,” “crimes against
humanity,” and “genocide.” The wording of the law was recommended by the
European Union for all EU member states, dear “reporter” Kennedy.

Below is part of the law’s text, in French. It says that the law covers any
crime recognized by Articles 6, 7, and 8 of the statute of the ICC
(International Criminal Court), Article 6 of the [Nuremburg] Tribunal
Charter of 1945, and any crime recognized by France. The latter would
include the Holocaust, Armenian genocide, and any future mass crime
recognized by France. Read it, Mr. Kennedy:

… tels que définis aux articles 6, 7 et 8 du Statut de la Cour pénale
internationale, à l’article 6 de la charte du Tribunal militaire
international annexée à l’accord de Londres du 8 août 1945, ou reconnus par
la France.

There is no reference to Armenians, though it would cover the Armenian
genocide and lots of other crimes.

Again, this is the wording the EU is suggesting to all EU states, my dear
“reporter” Kennedy. The LA Times and its correspondent have deliberately,
once again, misrepresented facts in order to make readers think that
Armenians are getting something special.

Levon Aronian crashes to shock defeat by David Navara at Wijk aan Ze

Levon Aronian crashes to shock defeat by David Navara at Wijk aan Zee

Leonard Barden
guardian.co.uk,
Friday 27 January 2012 22.55 GMT

3238: H Nakamura v D Navara, Tata Steel Wijk 2012. White (to play)
gave up a knight for this position, but 1 Qxd8 fails to Qxf7. So how
did White win? Photograph: Graphic
When the world No1 Magnus Carlsen beat the No2 Levon Aronian in an
early round at Wijk aan Zee last week, it seemed that the 21-year-old
Norwegian would continue his smooth advance towards Garry Kasparov’s
all-time peak rating.

Aronian, 29, had a different script. The Armenian caught up Carlsen,
who was bogged down by draws, then took the lead in Tuesday’s ninth
round, where the favourite crashed with the white pieces to Sergey
Karjakin.

It was a huge psychological blow and the next day Carlsen, whose
trademark is to operate with small edges in long games, halved out in
a mere 21 moves while Aronian won again to go 1.5 points up on Carlsen
with only three rounds left.

But there was another twist in Friday’s 11th round, when Aronian was
crushingly defeated by the Czech tail-ender David Navara. The final
two rounds (12.30pm GMT start) take place this weekend.

Record internet audiences of over 10,000 daily have been watching the
play free and live on the Tata Wijk site, aided by new web technology
which enables online spectators to view continuous computer
assessments of all 21 Wijk games. I recommend it highly, whether or
not you have watched online chess before. It is enjoyable, free and
can improve your own play.

Play also continues this weekend, with free and live internet viewing,
at Tradewise Gibraltar (2pm GMT start), now the best open tournament
in the world. Entrants from 60 countries include the Russian champion,
Peter Svidler, England’s top pair, Michael Adams and Nigel Short, and
the all-time No1 woman, Judit Polgar.

Adams’s first round win featured a crushing attack on the black king,
highlighted by 18 g4! planning c4 19 Qh2 and ending with a smart rook
sacrifice.

M Adams v N Zhukova

1 e4 d6 2 d4 Nf6 3 Nc3 g6 4 Be3 a6 5 h3 Bg7 6 f4 O-O 7 Nf3 b5 8 e5
Nfd7 9 Bd3 Nb6 10 Qe2 N8d7 11 O-O-O e6 12 h4 Bb7 13 h5 b4 14 Ne4 Bxe4
15 Bxe4 d5 16 Bd3 c5 17 hxg6 hxg6 18 g4 Re8 19 Qh2 cxd4 20 Bxd4 Qc7 21
f5 exf5 22 gxf5 Nxe5 23 Nxe5 Rxe5 24 fxg6 f6 25 Rdf1 Nd7 26 Bf5 Nf8 27
Bxe5 Qxe5 28 Qh3 a5 29 Re1 Qd6 30 Rhf1 a4 31 Be6+ Nxe6 32 Qh7+ Kf8 33
Rxf6+ 1-0

Polgar won more clinically. Her early queen’s side action provoked the
error 14 Qd1? (Qc4) and she was three pawns up when her opponent
conceded defeat.

A López v J Polgar

1 g3 Nf6 2 Bg2 d5 3 Nf3 c6 4 O-O Bg4 5 c4 Nbd7 6 cxd5 cxd5 7 Nc3 e6 8
d3 Rc8 9 h3 Bh5 10 e4 dxe4 11 dxe4 Bb4 12 Qb3 Qa5 13 e5 Nc5 14 Qd1?
Bxc3 15 bxc3 Nfe4 16 Qd4 Nxc3 17 Qh4 Ne2+ 18 Kh2 Bxf3 19 Bxf3 Nxc1 20
Raxc1 O-O 21 Rfd1 Qxa2 22 Qe7 Qxf2+ 23 Bg2 Rfe8 0-1

3238 1 Qf1! with the double threat 2 Rf6 or 2 Qh3+ Qh5 3 Rh7+. Black
tried 1…Qh5 2 Rxb7 c4 3 Qf6+ Qg6 4 Qxd8, then resigned.

Turks Fume At Sarkozy And France

TURKS FUME AT SARKOZY AND FRANCE
by PATRICK COCKBURN

CounterPunch

Jan 27 2012

Prison for Deniers of Armenian Genocide

Turkey warned yesterday that it would impose permanent sanctions on
France if a bill being discussed by the French Senate, which would
punish with prison and a fine anybody denying that the killing of
over one million Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915 was genocide,
was passed into law.

“Turkey will continue to implement sanctions so long as this bill
remains in motion,” the Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said
before the debate. Turkey briefly withdrew its ambassador to France
and placed sanctions on economic, political and military cooperation
with France when the bill passed the French lower house last month. It
would criminalize denial of the genocide, making offenders liable to
a one-year prison term and a 45,000 Euro fine. Mr Sarkozy’s office
said that the law would come into effect in two weeks.

The French action has created extreme anger in Turkey where television
news channels gave continuous coverage to the Senate debate. Turkish
critics denounce the legislation as a cynical attempt by French
President Nicolas Sarkozy to win the vote of the 500,000-strong French
Armenian community before the French presidential election later this
year. “Turkey is no longer the Turkey of 2001,” Mr Davotoglu said,
emphasizing that Turkey is much stronger today than it was in the
year when the French parliament first recognized the Armenian genocide.

In a tea house in the Bayoglu district of central Istanbul an elderly
man, who gave his name as Ali, vehemently denounced Mr Sarkozy. “He
plots like the devil,” he said. “He wouldn’t even pick up the phone
to talk to talk to our president. People do that even in war time. He
should resign as leader of France.”

The remaining Armenians in Turkey, believed to number about 70,000,
are not optimistic about the Turkish government ever admitting to the
genocide. At a march last week commemorating the fifth anniversary
of the murder of the Armenian Turkish journalist Hrant Dink in 2007,
an Armenian woman, Mariam Kalk, said she did not expect any change.

“Turkish society is a very silent society,” she said. “The state will
never admit to the Armenian massacre.”

Some Turkish historians have moved far in establishing the facts
about the Ottoman’s government’s instructions for the massacre of
the Armenians in 1915. The exact number killed in shootings or death
marches is not known, but historians estimate the figure to be between
1.2 million and 1.4 million. A document found in the papers of one
of the Ottoman government leaders and recently published recorded a
drop in the Armenian population of the Empire from 1,256,000 in 1914
to 284,157 in 1916.

In the past Turkey had contended that the figures for the dead are
exaggerated or that the Armenians were collateral damage, killed in
military operations and not on orders from the government.

Cengiz Aktar, a professor of political science at Bahcesehir University
in Istanbul, says that what happened to the Armenians was part of
“the religious cleansing that happened with a view to create a
homogenous state based on Islam. Non-Muslims had no place in the new
nation.” He said it would be very difficult for Turkey to admit this
now and when the demand “comes from France, especially from Sarkozy,
people here take it badly.”

Professor Aktar said there were three other reasons why the Armenian
genocide could not be admitted by Turkey. Those who carried it out
had continued to work for the government in senior positions. The
cleansing did not stop in 1923 and surviving Armenians, who still
numbered 300,000, were still being pushed out of Turkey for years
afterwards. Thirdly, “we should not forget that the Armenians were
often bourgeoisie and their wealth was plundered.”

Nevertheless, the present government of Prime Minister Recep Tayyip
Erdogan has shown itself more tolerant than any of its predecessors
towards Armenians and other Christians in Turkey. “The words ‘Armenian
genocide’ are no longer taboo,” says Prof Aktar. He adds that the
authorities have made sure there were no attacks on those taking part
in commemorations of “Genocide Day” on April 24. He believes that
there would be a nationalist backlash in Turkey if the French bill was
passed into law, but that discussion of what happened would not cease.

He says “the genie is out of the bottle.”

Armenians in Istanbul say they are treated with greater tolerance than
five years ago, partly because of the general outrage over the murder
of Hrant Dink. “Before Armenians were second class citizens in Turkey
and now they aren’t,” said Armen Kalk. There are signs of some state
support for the Armenian community such as at Vortods Vorodmans,
a previously derelict church opposite the Armenian Patriarchate
in Istanbul. It re-opened a month ago after being restored by the
government and has just been used for a concert.

Armenians in Istanbul are sceptical about the motives of France on
the genocide. One Armenian cafe owner said “it is all politics. It
is a storm in a glass.”

The Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has renewed his
personal attack on French President Nicolas Sarkozy for racism and
anti-Turkish behavior.

Mr Erdogan said yesterday that Turkish retaliation would be held back
since France might “correct its mistake”. This appears unlikely to
happen so Turkey may move to withdraw its ambassador and ban French
military aircraft and naval vessels from entering Turkish airspace
or waters. More damagingly, Turkey could stop placing large defense
orders with French firms and exclude France from winning contracts
for nuclear power stations and other big projects.

“What has happened is an effort to gain votes through
anti-Turkishness,” Mr Erdogan told his AK Party’s members of
parliament. The French presidential election is on April 22 and
May 6 and Mr Erdogan and most Turks believe he is trying to win
the 500,000-strong Armenian vote. As in the past, the Turkish prime
minister turned on Mr Sarkozy personally, saying that his grandfather
had been part of the Jewish community in Thessaloniki that had been
given refuge by the Ottoman Empire in the 15th Century after being
expelled from Spain by the Inquisition. He said that Mr Sarkozy
“regardless of how much anti-Turkish feeling he display, his history
coincides with the history of Turkey.”

Mr Erdogan and many Turks have developed a visceral loathing for
Mr Sarkozy, who has also played a leading role in keeping Turkey
out of the European Union. He famously said that every school child
knew that Europe ended at the Bosphorus. When the French lower house
of Parliament first passed the Bill, Mr Erdogan accused France of
massacring 15 per cent of the Algerian population after 1945. He
scornfully added that Mr Sarkozy’s father had been a soldier in
Algeria at the time and “I am sure has plenty of time to tell his
son about it.”

The French Foreign Minister, Alain Juppe, who was personally against
the new law, said it was “ill-timed”, but called on Ankara to remain
calm. “We have very important economic and trade ties,” Juppe added.

“I hope the reality of the situation will not be usurped by emotions.”

The mayor of Ankara has suggested changing the name of the street the
French embassy is in to Algeria Street and erecting nearby a memorial
to Algerian victims of French colonial oppression.

There is a limit to what Turkey can do without damaging itself since
France is its fifth biggest export market and bilateral trade in
the first ten months of last year was $13.5 billion. France is also
a significant investor in Turkey at a time when there are fears that
the foreign investment that has driven Turkey’s high growth may begin
to flow out of the country. The Turkish government may wait to see
if the new law will eventually be declared unconstitutional before
introducing long term sanctions.

PATRICK COCKBURN is the author of “Muqtada: Muqtada Al-Sadr, the Shia
Revival, and the Struggle for Iraq.

http://www.counterpunch.org/2012/01/27/turks-fume-at-sarkozy-and-france/

Turkish State TV Airs Holocaust Film

TURKISH STATE TV AIRS HOLOCAUST FILM
By SUZAN FRASER

The Associated Press
January 27, 2012 Friday 10:05 AM GMT

An epic French documentary about the mass murder of Jews under
the German Nazi regime has appeared on Turkish television to mark
international Holocaust Remembrance Day the first time the film has
been aired on public television in a majority-Muslim country.

State television TRT’s documentary channel showed the first episode
of filmmaker Claude Lanzmann’s “Shoah” late Thursday the eve of the
day of remembrance of the victims of the Holocaust.

The film has been subtitled into Arabic, Farsi and Turkish by the
Paris-based Aladdin project as part of its campaign to promote
understanding between Jews and Muslims and to fight Holocaust denial.

Last year, a Los Angeles-based Farsi satellite channel broadcast the
9-plus-hour documentary in Iran, where President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
has questioned historical accounts of the Holocaust and called for
Israel’s destruction.

The film is not the first Holocaust film to be shown on television
in Turkey, a secular country that is seeking membership in the
European Union. Turkey also has its own Holocaust film: “The Turkish
Passport,” which was released last year and tells the true story
of Turkish diplomats who saved thousands of Jews by issuing them
Turkish passports.

“Shoah” has also been shown to a limited audience at a Turkish film
festival.

Nevertheless, it was the first showing of “Shoah” on a public
television channel in a Muslim country. The director said he hoped
more Muslim countries would follow suit.

“It is a historical event,” Lanzmann, 87, said in a telephone interview
with The Associated Press from his home in Paris. “It is extremely
important that it is being shown in a Muslim country.”

“The Turks are engaged in a pioneering work and I am sure it (the
showing) will be followed by other Muslim countries,” he said.

The documentary’s airing comes at a time when some Jewish groups have
warned of growing anti-Semitism in Turkey, following the country’s
frayed relations with Israel.

Turkey was outraged by the killing of hundreds of Palestinian
civilians during Israel’s war in the Gaza Strip three years ago. Ties
worsened in 2010 after Israeli naval commandos killed nine Turks in
a botched raid on a flotilla that was trying to breach Israel’s Gaza
blockade. Israel’s refusal to apologize for the flotilla killings
sent relations deteriorating even further.

The documentary was also aired amid an escalating dispute between
Turkey and France over French legislation that would make it a crime
to deny that the mass killings of Armenians by Ottoman Turks amounted
to genocide.

Most historians contend that the 1915 killings of 1.5 million Armenians
as the Ottoman Empire broke up was the 20th century’s first genocide,
and several European countries recognize the massacres as such.

But Turkey rejects the term genocide, saying there was no systematic
campaign to kill Armenians and that many Turks also died during the
chaotic disintegration of the empire. It also says that death toll
is inflated.

“Shoah” includes testimony from concentration camp survivors and
employees about the slaughter of millions of Jews in Europe during
World War II. Lanzmann worked for 11 years on the film, which was
released in 1985.

Grand Concert Dedicated To 20th Anniversary Of Armed Forces Of Armen

GRAND CONCERT DEDICATED TO 20TH ANNIVERSARY OF ARMED FORCES OF ARMENIA

ARMENPRESS
27 January, 2012
YEREVAN

YEREVAN, JANUARY 27, ARMENPRESS: “I am the Soldier of My Homeland”
solemn event was organized January 27 in Karen Demirchyan Sports and
Concert Complex.

President of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan, his spouse Rita Sargsyan,
Catholicos of All Armenians Karekin II, National Assembly Speaker
Samvel Nikoyan, Prime Minister of Armenia Tigran Sargsyan, Defense
Minister Seyran Ohanyan and others attended the event.

Historical noteworthy periods beginning from the ancient one up to
Shushi liberation fighting were reproduced on every stair on the way
of the Sport and Concert Complex.

According to Defense Minister of Armenia Seyran Ohanyan, this is a
day when everyone congratulates each other simultaneously recalling
episodes from the heroic past.

“The Armenian army has a history of millenniums. Armenian people have
always struggled for land, belief and dignity. Our army is old and
young at the same time,” said the defense minister.

BAKU: ‘War In Iran Will Slow Karabakh Negotiation Process’

‘WAR IN IRAN WILL SLOW KARABAKH NEGOTIATION PROCESS’

News.Az
Fri 27 January 2012 08:00 GMT | 8:00 Local Time

News.Az interviews Maxim Minayev, leading expert of the Russian
Political Center.

What do you think about the meeting of the Azerbaijani and Armenian
presidents with the mediation of president Medvedev, which some
skeptics considered formal for the outgoing Russian president?

I think that we are talking about double content of the event. On the
one hand, to expect that the meeting would end with some progress
in the current situation would be at leave naive. Medvedev’s
administration during his tenure proved that it is not so capable
of settling serious interstate conflicts in the territory of the
post-Soviet space. The only episode it proved to be relatively
effective is the episode associated with the conflict on the South
Ossetia and Abkhazia, but it generally is not an element of diplomacy
or foreign policy but an element of direct military confrontation.

Of course, now that almost one month remains before the presidential
elections in Russia, is should not be expected that Medvedev will
make a surprise and resolve the conflict. Nevertheless, the second
component of this meeting is that during the reign of Medvedev, Moscow
supported the negotiation process and the direct line of communication
with the Armenian and Azerbaijani leadership. In this context, the
current meeting is valuable because during it, Moscow could once
again carry out the coordination of positions in controversial issues.

Regardless of the efficiency of such agreement, the fact is there
and Moscow has the idea of what position Baku and Yerevan hold in the
current issue. And naturally, the meeting will be a useful tool for
the foreign policy team of Putin, when it will address the issue of
Karabakh in the summer or autumn.

Do you assume that Putin, if wins the elections, will maintain the
rate of the mediation which Medvedev did?

The Ossetian conflict showed that the territorial problem not only
in the Caucasus but also around the perimeter of Russian borders
is a very dangerous component of bilateral relations. This is a
problematic point which can explode at any moment and lead to an open
military confrontation. Seemingly, Moscow in 2008 understood that
it’s not good the delay the resolution of such problems. Naturally,
it’s easier to solve problem through political methods rather than
by tanks and aircraft.

So I think that this problem will be close to Putin and he will
seek to actively engage in it. It’s necessary to consider here
another point. Putin’s foreign policy doctrine, which is now being
actively formulated and is under development, is largely focused on
post-Soviet space. This space will within â~@~Kâ~@~Kspecial attention
of the Kremlin. And no matter how will be the new position of the
Kremlin’s administration, it will be anyway carefully concentrated
in all issues associated with this region.

And here we must take into account the personal profile of the
future administration and foreign policy team. There will be a place
for specialists in post-Soviet region and they will take a prominent
position. It will not be diplomats, but the people who occupy positions
in the top echelons of the political leadership. And they will act
not less diplomatically than in the foreign policy line, which is
more effective because the experience showed that the traditional
diplomacy in the post-Soviet space doesn’t work and the complex of
political and economical tools in necessary here. In the context,
the entire network of territorial problems (Karabakh, Transdniestria,
South Ossetia and Abkhazia) will be actively dealt with. We will judge
its efficiency based on the activity of the foreign policy team of
Putin. But to my mind, given promising personal steps of Putin and his
entourage in terms of the appointment of new players and consolidation
of the current positions, these actions set up in a positive way.

How would the possible war of the West against Iran affect the
situation in the South Caucasus?

I think this problem is much more relevant for Azerbaijan because
in this case, the country will encounter more flow of refugees from
the northwestern regions of Iran where many Azerbaijanis dwell. These
people most likely will try to cross the border and settle mainly in
Azerbaijan. But it’s not the possible problem of one country.

This will affect the whole situation because first of all, it will
change the political situation in the Caspian as Iran in such a way
will fall out of the inter-state Caspian debates and thus, a problem
will occur on the delineation of spheres of influence in the Caspian
Sea. Second – the US will have an additional opportunity to build a
military base in Azerbaijan. Since, there is a possibility that it
will use military facilities in the country for military operations
and intelligence activities. We cannot say the Azerbaijan will become
a springboard for the US presence.

Since, Azerbaijan officially stated that it is not going to help any
anti-Iranian operation.

Yes, and this option is more than likely considering the Uzbek
scenario where there are one or two NATO facilities and the intensity
of consultations between Baku and the North Atlantic Alliance.

And finally, the fact that the war will unleash on the vicinity of the
borders of the post-Soviet space will seriously delay the Karabakh
negotiation process and maybe the sides will just have to freeze
discussions on this issue. The Iran’s agenda will first lead to the
fact that Moscow, instead of concentrating in the post-Soviet space
(as it plans to do so), it will have to direct its whole attention
to the situation in the Middle East because it cannot escape the
Iranian problem.

This topic is just going to take much of the agenda and time of those
who will formally oversee the direction of the South Caucasus. And all
the rest, including Yerevan and Baku will have to adjust their position
in accordance with the events around Iran, especially Azerbaijan
which will generally be at the forefront. Since, I assume that in the
event of the military conflict in the region, it will not be limited
to missile attacks. It will most likely be followed by ground attacks
with all its consequences. Of course, the US can break the resistance
of Iran, but what will follow it – we saw in the example of Iraq. That
is, civil war and partisan resistance to military interventionists.

Another thing is that despite the escalation of the situation, for now,
the possibility of such conflict is not high because of the elections
in the US. And even after the elections, the military conflict will
not be favorable for any sides – neither the opposition nor Obama,
because he doesn’t want serious problems in the Middle East during
his electioneering.