KOCHARYAN PRIME MINISTER?
HAKOB BADALYAN
Story from Lragir.am News:
Published: 10:53:17 – 30/03/2012
The analyses and forecasts on the elections, generation of internecine
controversies, as well as the vision of the presidential election 2013
in this context have aroused considerations of Robert Kocharyan’s role.
One of the key questions is whether Kocharyan will run in the
presidential election 2013 as Sargsyan’s opponent or as his substitute.
Under certain conditions, Kocharyan’s nomination for the presidential
election 2013 is not something impossible. For example, he may run
in the election if Serzh Sargsyan does not run for whatever reason,
though there is no visible probability of such course of developments
in the nearest future.
In case of Serzh Sargsyan’s resignation, the government candidate
for president will definitely not be Robert Kocharyan. Moreover, it
will not be a surprise if the government candidate is an opposition
leader rather than a representative of the government.
Kocharyan may also run in case serious issues occur against Sargsyan’s
re-election in terms of continuation of the “best” election practice,
and if necessity arises to present Sargsyan as the “lesser of two
evils”.
By the way, in this context, it will not be a surprise if in
2013 the scenario of the battle of three – Serzh Sargsyan-Robert
Kocharyan-Levon Ter-Petrosyan – is chosen. For example, this
scenario will be useful for Serzh Sargsyan because Kocharyan
and Ter-Petrosyan will battle seriously, facilitating Sargsyan’s
success. In addition, this arrangement may also be useful for both
Kocharyan and Ter-Petrosyan since Kocharyan may tell Sargsyan that
once again he prevented Ter-Petrosyan from preventing Sargsyan’s
presidency while Ter-Petrosyan may say that though he was not elected
president he did not allow Kocharyan be elected either.
Though all the scenarios cannot be ruled out, they are highly
hypothetical and Kocharyan’s nomination is almost ruled out.
It is clear for Kocharyan that there is the least public support or
demand of his return into the game. Though the elections are fraudulent
and the voters’ choice is rigged, they are still an important event
and cannot be ignored. In the end, the more the votes, the harder to
rig the elections, especially taking into account the technological
progress.
At the same time, Kocharyan has no enough foreign support while
internal legitimacy has essentially decreased in these four years
and it is not enough for an internal state coup.
Hence, it would be sheer romanticism to think about running in the
presidential elections in 2013. Robert Kocharyan’s tenure was marked
by effective intuition but not sensibility or romanticism.
The best scenario for his return, as long as he can calculate,
is the office of the prime minister which can be ensured through
the success of Bargavach Hayastan Party (Prosperous Armenia) in
the parliamentary elections. If the BHP succeeds in the elections,
Kocharyan’s appointment as Prime Minister will be easier and the issue
public and foreign support will essentially lose its importance. While
in 2013, the presidential candidate of Kocharyan and the Proposerous
Armenia will probably be Vartan Oskanian.
However, these are past intentions rather than an ongoing project,
and Kocharyan’s plan to become PM by way of BHP parliamentary victory
has already been prevented. The point is that the BHP ambitions were
eventually limited to a very restricted party list.
The BHP list is not aimed at holding parliamentary majority but at
holding an effective minority, i.e. opposition. Apparently, for 2013,
BHP and Kocharyan decided to be limited to an agreement with Serzh
Sargsyan to be the main parliamentary opposition.
Although the situation and traditions in Armenia cannot guarantee
non-change of agreements. Moreover, change in Armenia does not depend
on the political subjects of Armenia.
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