Author: Kajoyan Gevork

KARABAKH PEACE PROCESS TO BE FROZEN – ADMINISTRATION

news.am
September 05, 2012 | 03:26

STEPANAKERT. – Extradition and granting a pardon to Ramil Safarov
should not serve for Armenia as a reason to quit the negotiation
process of Nagorno-Karabakh conflict settlement, Karabakh presidential
spokesperson David Babayan told Armenian News-NEWS.am.

According to him, there is no need to be influenced by provocations
and be led by emotions as it may be harmful. He added that the
negotiation process of the Karabakh conflict will be frozen anyway,
as at the moment due to the current events it is simply useless.

As for the steps which the world community should take in relation to
Azerbaijan, Babayan emphasized that it should assess the event properly
and rule out Azerbaijan from the influential world organizations.

Armenian News-NEWS.am reported earlier that Ramil Safarov, a lieutenant
in the Azerbaijani military, was extradited on August 31 from Hungary,
where he was serving a life sentence – and with no expression of
either regret or remorse – for the premeditated axe murder of Armenian
lieutenant Gurgen Margaryan, in his sleep, during a NATO Partnership
for Peace program in Budapest back in 2004.

ARMENIA’S FIRST PRESIDENT HAS NO MONEY REQUIREMENTS FROM EUROPEAN COURT – NEWSPAPER

news.am
September 05, 2012 | 07:27

YEREVAN. – No money is required as compensation in Armenian
First President Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s petition submitted to the
European Court of Human Rights (ECtHR), and with respect to Armenia’s
presidential elections held on February 19, 2008, the First President’s
representative at the European Court (EC), attorney Vahe Grigoryan
told Haykakan Zhamanak daily.

“According to the lawyer, he informed the First President that in
such cases the European Court usually consents to the requirements of
compensating for moral and material damage, but the First President’s
sole requirement was for the recognition of the fact that Armenia has
violated the rights specified by the [European] Convention on Human
Rights, which Armenia had assumed.

‘Recognition of the violation of Convention rights is a fair and
adequate compensation for the First President,’ the attorney said.

This petition was submitted to EC in August 2008. Examination of the
petition commenced in May of this year. [And] The ruling on this case
could be made public before [Armenia’s] presidential elections to be
held in February [2013],” Haykakan Zhamanak writes.

THE SECRET TO HER LONGEVITY, IT SEEMS, IS MINESTRONE AND GOAT’S MILK
by Robert Crampton

The Times (London)
September 4, 2012 Tuesday
UK

I always thought that it was the Okinawans who lived longest,
thanks to all that Japanese self-discipline and lashings of oily
fish – some of which had been caught legally. Then I read of the
prevalence of centenarians in Armenia, where they like nothing better
than a massive booze-up, each carb-laden dish punctuated by a huge
unfiltered roll-up. Now it turns out that the real world leaders in
“Not Snuffing It When You’re Supposed To” are the Sardinians.

Nine siblings, it is reported from the town of Perdasdefogu, share
a combined age of 818 and an average age of almost 91. The eldest,
Consolata Melis, 105, reckons that the family’s durability is down
to minestrone soup and goat’s milk. The formidable Signora Melis,
I have to say, understands the golden rule of these longevity stories
very well: some quirky, homespun, not-quite-the-received wisdom aspect
of diet or lifestyle must, repeat must, be responsible.

It could be minestrone soup and goat’s milk; could be never touching
alcohol. It could be getting legless twice a week; could be lifelong
chastity; could be – between you and me – I’ve shagged the whole
village. It doesn’t matter, just so long as the lengthy life being
celebrated cannot be ascribed to a combination of luck and genetics
and/or a birth certificate that has been lost in the mists of time.

Having been to Sardinia, I admit I was surprised that the locals hang
about for so long.

National dishes include roast piglet, pork stew, and pasta filled with
potatoes. On the coast, they were also keen on pizza and chips. The
villages in the mountains contained many aged people, true. And
absolutely no one else – anyone under about 80 having left. Or died.

When the entire population is old, the proportion of people who are
extremely old is likely to be unusually high.

I might add that these geriatric Sards, shuffling along their
wind-scoured, near-abandoned streets, far from revelling in their
supposed good fortune, looked pretty fed up.

A good deal of research has been done into extreme longevity.

Surprisingly little, however, is agreed regarding an explanation
for it. Laying off the fags helps. Eating your greens is advisable,
as is not stuffing yourself fit to burst. Going easy (but not too
easy; a little is better than none) on the booze seems handy. Taking
a stroll, preferably uphill, preferably several times each day,
promotes sustained good health.

Poverty, being badly educated, lacking access to decent medical
facilities – these are bad ideas. So (unless, presumably, you’re
a deep-sea diver or bomb disposal expert, or the like) is total,
instant retirement. For a woman (but not Signora Melis, who has had
14) having children tends to shorten your lifespan.

After that, understanding seeps away. Maybe it’s this enzyme, that
vitamin, this hormone influenced by that gene variation, too much or
too little. Cause or effect, we’re not entirely sure, but further
study is required. And after that you’re into circularity. If,
for whatever reason, person A is less likely to die than person B,
other things being equal, person A is more likely to still be above
ground this time next year.

There is one factor, however, that appears common to most of the
studies, and which ought to make us, in Britain, rather sad. Extremely
elderly people, particularly those who still enjoy good health,
tend to be well integrated into, and well respected and cared for by
their families, neighbours and communities. They have lots of social
contact. They are, in other words, looked after, not just physically,
but emotionally.

I suspect that the Okinawans, the Armenians and the Sardinians are
a lot better at doing that than we are.

AZERBAIJANI STATE FUND DENIES BUYING HUNGARIAN GOVT SECURITIES

Interfax
Sept 4 2012
Russia

The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan denied reports that it has bought
securities issued by the Hungarian government and said it does not plan
to invest in any securities or other financial instruments of Hungary.

The State Oil Fund said in a statement that information should be
verified with the fund prior to the publication of such false reports.

The reports that the fund had supposedly invested in Hungarian
government securities emerged after the extradition of Azerbaijani
officer Ramil Safarov, who was sentenced to life in prison by a
Budapest court for the killing of Armenian officer Gurgen Margarian.

The State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan accumulates revenue from the sale
of oil contracts, including the sale of the state’s profit oil,
transit tariffs for transporting oil and gas through the country,
leasing of state property, etc.

ENVOY SEES AXE-KILLER’S PARDON AS SEVERE BLOW TO NAGORNO-KARABAKH TALKS

FARS News Agency
September 3, 2012 Monday
Iran

TEHRAN (FNA)- Armenian’s Ambassador to Iran Grigor Arakelian condemned
Baku for pardoning an Azeri officer who axed an Armenian officer to
death years ago, and warned that the move undermines the process of
talks between the two neighboring countries over the Nagorno-Karabakh
region.

Azerbaijan President Ilham Aliyev last week immediately pardoned
Ramil Safarov after he was extradited from Hungary, where he had been
serving a life sentence for the 2004 killing.

Safarov was also promoted to the rank of major, given a house and eight
years’ worth of back-pay after returning home to a hero’s welcome,
in defiance of assurances from Baku to Budapest that he would serve
out his term in Azerbaijan.

Speaking to FNA on Monday, the Armenian envoy to Tehran pointed to
the ongoing talks between Yerevan and Baku over the Nagorno-Karabakh
region, and said, “This move by the government of Azerbaijan shows
that they are not interested in the continuation of the negotiations
and are demonstrating their intolerance towards a nation and its
rights to exist.”

“The Azeri government’s action to pardon the killer and make him
a hero is a step towards undermining the negotiation process,” the
Armenian envoy underscored.

In similar remarks on Sunday, Armenia warned Baku that it was ready
for war.

“We don’t want a war, but if we have to, we will fight and win. We
are not afraid of killers, even if they enjoy the protection of the
head of state,” Armenian President Serzh Sargsian said in a statement
late on Sunday.

OSCE DECRIES AZERBAIJAN-ARMENIA TENSIONS
By JIM HEINTZ

Associated Press Online
September 3, 2012 Monday 7:03 PM GMT

International negotiators say Azerbaijan’s pardoning of a military
officer who murdered an Armenian officer has harmed attempts to
establish peace between the countries.

Azerbaijan in turn strongly defended the move, saying the pardon
of Ramil Safarov is a consequence of Armenian occupation of a part
of Azerbaijan.

The Nagorno-Karabakh region of Azerbaijan and some adjacent territory
has been under the control of Armenian troops and local ethnic Armenian
forces since a 1994 cease-fire ended a six-year war that killed an
estimated 30,000 people and drove about 1 million from their homes.

Negotiators from Russia, the United States and France under the
auspices of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
have led efforts since then to find a resolution to the conflict,
but with little visible result.

The tensions rose sharply last week after Hungary repatriated Safarov,
who had been sentenced to life imprisonment for the 2004 axe murder
of Armenian Lt. Gurgen Makarian while both were in Hungary on a NATO
language-training course.

Hungary said Azerbaijan promised that Safarov would serve his sentence
in a local prison, but he received a presidential pardon hours after
returning and later was promoted from lieutenant to major.

An outraged Armenian President Serge Sarkisian broke diplomatic
relations with Hungary and said Armenia was willing to resume fighting
against Azerbaijan.

Reigniting the frozen conflict would be of serious concern to Russia,
which borders Azerbaijan and has a military base in Armenia, as well as
the West. A major pipeline through Azerbaijan transports Caspian Sea
oil to Turkey and both countries have potential strategic importance
because they border Iran.

The co-chairs of the “Minsk Group,” the troika negotiating on
Nagorno-Karabakh, met in Paris with the Armenian foreign minister on
Sunday and his Azerbaijani counterpart on Monday.

The co-chairs “expressed their deep concern and regret for the damage
the pardon and any attempts to glorify the crime have done to the
peace process and trust between the sides,” an OSCE statement said.

Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mamedyarov also spoke by telephone
with U.S. Deputy Secretary of State William Burns on Monday, ministry
spokesman Elman Abdullayev said.

Mamedyarov “underlined that the question of Ramil Safarov must not be
looked at outside the context of the fact of the occupation, because
it is a consequence of this Armenian aggression,” Abdullayev said.

Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandian in turn said the
“international society cannot tolerate the continuation of Azerbaijan’s
adventurist policy under the cover of the negotiations process.”

Separately from the OSCE statement, Russia’s Foreign Ministry condemned
both Hungary’s release of Safarov and Azerbaijan’s pardon of him.

“We believe that these actions of Azerbaijani as well as Hungarian
authorities contradict internationally brokered efforts, of the
OSCE’s Minsk group in particular, to ease tensions in the region,”
the ministry said.

The White House also criticized the decision to free Safarov.

During his trial in Budapest, Safarov claimed that the Nagorno-Karabakh
conflict was at the root of his actions and that he killed Markarian
while the victim was sleeping after the Armenian repeatedly provoked
and ridiculed him.

—

Aida Sultanova in Baku, Azerbaijan, and Avet Demourian in Yerevan,
Armenia, contributed to this report

KINGA GONCZ: HUNGARY’S PM ORBAN PERSONALLY DECIDED ABOUT EXTRADITING SAFAROV

Mediamax
Sept 5 2012
Armenia

The exclusive interview of Hungary’s former Foreign Minister Kinga
Goncz to Mediamax

Kinga Goncz is Hungary’s former Foreign Minister (9 June 2006 – 14
April 2009). She is the daughter of Árpad Goncz, former President
of Hungary. In 2009 she headed the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP)
European election list and was subsequently elected as one of 22
Hungarian Members of the European Parliament.

– Ms Goncz, what’s Your opinion about the decision of Hungary to
extradite Azerbaijani officer Ramil Safarov to Azerbaijan?

– I consider it a serious mistake. The issue of the possible
extradition of Ramil Safarov was also raised during my tenure in
the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. We didn’t meet this request because
we didn’t want to spark a conflict between the two countries whose
relationship has been tense for decades beacuse of Nagorno-Karabakh.

The extradition was a wrong decision which might have been made without
taking into account the possible consequences, not consulting experts
before the decision. But, if the Hungarian government has been aware
of the possible consequences, it has acted unethically. Either case
is seriously problematic.

– Many analysts affirm that Azerbaijan and Hungary struck a secret
deal in which Azerbaijan agreed to buy Hungarian government debt
obligations in exchange for Safarov release. What do You think on this?

– We don’t know what exactly happened. What we know is that Prime
Minister Orban advertises his policy of “opening to the East”,
meaning turning away from European values and avoiding any kind of
outside control over his government. He tries to find other sources
than the IMF to finance the budget deficit and no price seems to be
too high for it.

– State Oil Fund of Azerbaijan announced it “is not considering any
investment into debt obligations or other financial tools in Hungary”.

Does it mean that Azerbaijan tricked Hungary?

– I can’t answer this question. We don’t know what exactly happened.

What we know is that it was the Prime Minister who personally decided
about extraditing Mr Safarov.

– What Hungary lost or achieved as a result of Safarov extradition
to Azerbaijan?

– Hungary achieved nothing. At the same time it has broken its
image in the international arena. Whether it was flawed diplomacy
or unethical behaviour, either case is very harmful for Hungary’s
international reputation.

– Who are the main responsible of this situation?

– The Azeri President, the Hungarian government and personally Prime
Minister Viktor Orban hold responsibility for the tense situation.

– What’s the opinion of Hungarian Socialist Party about Safarov
extradition?

– The Hungarian Socialist Party harshly critizised the steps taken by
the Hungarian goverment while extraditing Mr Safarov. The party asks
for parliamentary inquiry and calls on the PM to publicly apologize
to Armenia.

– Do you find it possible that PM Viktor Orban may resign because of
the situation?

– After dismantling the system of democratic checks and balances
in Hungary, Prime Minister Orban, with suppport of his party’s
parliamentary majority does whatever he wants. His policy sparks
numerous conflicts internally and externally, and without any political
consequences.

– On August 31 Armenian President Serj Sargsian announced that Armenia
is suspending diplomatic relations and all official ties with Hungary.

What developments to expect as a result of the halt of diplomatic
relations between two countries?

– The EU Eastern Partnership is very important for Hungary’s foreign
policy. Our country’s relations with Armenia are traditionally very
good. Hungarians have always felt deep sympathy and appreciation
towards the people of Armenia and their history. I do hope that
this incident cannot and will not darken our relations and future
cooperation. In these days many people in Hungary expressed their deep
sympathy, apology and compassion towards your country and your people.

– What do you think, when and how it is possible the Restoration of
relations between Armenia and Hungary?

– I hope our traditionally good relations will be recovering sooner
than later. I also hope that Armenian people will not confuse our
autocratic government with other political actors, and the Hungarian
people.

Narine Daneghyan talked to Kinga Goncz for Mediamax.

A serious error

Saudi Gazette
Sept 5 2012
Saudi Arabia

Last Updated : Thursday, September 06, 2012 1:25 AM

There is no love lost between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At the heart
of their enmity lies the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh, which
sits within Azeri territory. Armenia maintains that its largely ethnic
Armenian population there makes it part of the country. It fought a
war in 1994 which drove out the Azerbaijan police and army.

Azerbaijan, which for its part, has an enclave in Armenia with,
however, a border to Iran, continues to demand the return of the
Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.

Passions run deep on both sides. So deep indeed, that in 2004, an
Azeri army officer, in Hungary on a NATO English-language course, took
an ax to an Armenian officer on the same program and killed him. A
Hungarian court subsequently jailed the murderer, Ramil Safarov,
for life. However, the government in Baku succeeded this summer in
persuading the Hungarians to release Safarov, on condition that he
would serve the rest of his sentence in his home country. Yet, no
sooner had the officer stepped off the plane in the Azeri capital,
than he was given a presidential pardon, a promotion in rank and
eight years in back salary.

There have been angry protests in the Armenian capital outside the
Hungarian embassy. The Hungarians are also clearly deeply embarrassed
and their view will be shared by fellow EU member states. Put bluntly,
this is a spectacular act of bad faith by Azerbaijan’s president,
Ilham Aliyev, which has the potential to poison relations between
his country and the EU.

Whatever are the two nations’ claims of right and wrong in the
Nagorno-Karabakh dispute (International law appears to favor Azeri
rights over the territory), what is at the heart of this current
issue is a case of common murder. Nothing can excuse what Safarov
did. His life sentence was undoubtedly fair. The Hungarian government
allowed itself to be convinced that the murderer would complete his
punishment in his own country, where it would be easy for relatives
to visit him and where indeed, he would be back among his own people.

No one in Budapest would have imagined that solemn assurances given
by another government would be dishonored so quickly in such an
outrageous way. There is nothing heroic about cold-blooded murder
and the lionization of this convicted killer by his government leaves
an extremely bitter taste in the mouth. The people of Azerbaijan who
have been hailing Safarov as a hero, should consider how they would
be feeling now, if the position had been reversed. Supposing it had
been the Armenian officer who had murdered Safarov, been jailed for
life, then released into Armenian custody and promptly pardoned,
promoted and paid?

This regrettable incident is not about deep national rivalries but
about the rule of law. It is also about the trustworthiness of a
sovereign government. In demonstrating its lack of respect for
the primacy of law and the emptiness of its promises, Aliyev’s
administration has done itself no favors whatsoever and may yet
find that it pays a high price for its behavior. It has certainly
done nothing to advance its case that Nagorno-Karabakh is part of
Azerbaijan.

AX KILLER’S PARDON REIGNITES WAR FEARS IN OIL-RICH CAUCASUS

Bloomberg / Business Week

Sept 5 2012

By Zulfugar Agayev and Henry Meyer on September 05, 2012

Azerbaijan’s pardon of a convicted murderer who killed an Armenian
army officer with an ax risks reigniting a 20-year-old war between
the two foes in the energy- rich South Caucasus.

Ramil Safarov, who was serving a life sentence for slaying Gurgen
Margaryan in Budapest in 2004, was pardoned by Azeri President Ilham
Aliyev and promoted after Hungary transferred him home Aug. 31.

Armenia’s parliament will hold an emergency session today, while
Europe, the U.S. and Russia have expressed “deep concern” about
regional stability.

Energy-exporter Azerbaijan fought Armenia over the Nagorno- Karabakh
enclave after the 1991 Soviet breakup, leaving tens of thousands dead
and more than 1 million displaced. While border skirmishes since a
1994 cease fire haven’t triggered renewed conflict, Safarov being
honored threatens the status quo. The territory remains a potential
flash point in a region that borders Iran and Turkey and endured a
2008 Russia-Georgia war.

Safarov’s pardon “is a serious blow to confidence building and
trust between Azerbaijan and Armenia,” Sabine Freizer, director of
the International Crisis Group’s Europe Program in Istanbul, said
yesterday by e-mail. “Both in Baku and in Yerevan, there’s a growing
public impression that the time to return to war to defeat the enemy
permanently has come.”

Dram, Manat

The Armenian dram strengthened less than 0.1 percent against the
dollar today to 410.5500 after falling yesterday to the weakest level
since Aug. 21, data compiled by Bloomberg show. The Azeri manat was
unchanged at 0.7845 per dollar.

Armenia has severed diplomatic ties with Hungary and lawmakers said
today in a statement that Azerbaijan’s “cynical” actions in rewarding
the perpetrator of a “xenophobic” crime undermine regional security.

President Serzh Sargsyan expressed anger at the decision to pardon
Safarov.

“The Armenians must not be underestimated — we don’t want a war,
but if we have to, we will fight and win,” he said Sept. 2 in comments
published on his website for Nagorno-Karabakh’s Independence Day. “We
are not afraid of murderers, even of those who enjoy the highest
patronage. And again our words fall on deaf ears. Well, they have
been warned.”

Armenian terrorist organization ASALA, which has previously claimed
responsibility for killing Turkish diplomats, sent a threatening
letter to Azerbaijan’s embassy in Budapest, Azartac, the Azeri
state-run news service, reported yesterday. Security at embassies
has been stepped up, the Foreign Ministry said.

Security Services

Sargsyan has instructed his security services to kill Safarov,
Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry said. Tigran Balayan, a spokesman for
the Armenia’s Foreign Ministry, and presidential spokesman Arman
Arzumanyan declined to comment today.

Peace in the region “depends entirely on Armenia,” Elnur Aslanov,
head of the political analysis and information- provision department
at the Azeri president’s office, said yesterday by e-mail. He called
Sargsyan’s comments provocative.

“It’s a bit odd to hear such bloodthirsty threats and calls for
intolerance from a head of state in the 21st century,” Aslanov wrote.

Safarov, who was a lieutenant when he committed the murder, received a
hero’s welcome in the Azeri capital of Baku last week and was promoted
to the rank of major. He was also given eight years’ of back pay and an
apartment, the APA news service reported, citing the Defense Ministry.

NATO Training

Safarov, 35, had been attending language classes with Margaryan in
Budapest in February 2004 as part of training conducted by the North
Atlantic Treaty Organization.

The U.S., France and Russia, which are leading efforts to resolve
the Nagorno-Karabakh dispute, Sept. 3 urged Azerbaijan and Armenia
to persist with negotiations.

“We are communicating to the Azerbaijani authorities our disappointment
about the decision to pardon Safarov,” the White House said Aug. 31
in a statement. “This action is contrary to ongoing efforts to reduce
regional tensions and promote reconciliation.”

U.S. President Barack Obama and his French and Russian counterparts
called in June on the two former Soviet republics to accelerate a
road map for resolving the status of Nagorno- Karabakh, respect the
1994 cease-fire agreement and abstain from hostile rhetoric.

Peace Talks

Talks brokered by Russia last year between Sargsyan and Aliyev failed
to yield an accord on the so-called Basic Principles to allow a
peace agreement to be reached. Azerbaijan’s and Hungary’s actions
undermine international efforts to reduce tensions in the region,
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said Sept. 3.

The European Union said the same day that it was in contact with both
sides in a bid to head off any potential hostilities.

“We are particularly concerned about the possible impact that
these developments might have on the wider region,” Maja Kocijancic,
spokeswoman for European Union foreign-affairs chief Catherine Ashton,
told reporters in Brussels. “We call on Azerbaijan and Armenia to
exercise restraint on the ground and in public statements in order
to prevent any kind of escalation of this situation.”

Companies led by London-based BP Plc (BP/) have invested more than $35
billion in Azerbaijan’s oil and natural-gas fields. Azerbaijan can
pump as many as 1.2 million barrels of oil a day to Turkey through
the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, which is part-funded by the West
to allow supplies to bypass Russia.

Military Spending

The country may also be a source of natural gas for Azerbaijan’s
EU-backed Trans-Anatolia pipeline across Turkey.

Azerbaijan, whose economy grew 0.1 percent last year, used surging oil
prices to double military spending to more than $2 billion in 2010,
emboldening Aliyev to threaten the use of military force to regain
Nagorno-Karabakh. Regular border clashes continue to break out.

Military spending will reach $3.6 billion this year, about 60 percent
more than Armenia’s state budget, Aliyev told a Cabinet meeting in
June. Azerbaijan’s army numbers 56,840, according to The Military
Balance 2012, published by the International Institute for Strategic
Studies in London.

Armenia’s economy is set to expand 3.8 percent this year, according
to the International Monetary Fund. Growth is helped by large amounts
of investment from Iran, which has benefited as Armenia’s ties with
Azerbaijan and Turkey have soured, Vadim Mukhanov, an analyst at the
Moscow State Institute of International Relations, said today by phone.

Russian Support

Armenia’s army totals 45,846, more than half of which are conscripts,
while Russia’s air force provides national air defense, according to
The Military Balance.

The fallout over Safarov’s release probably won’t spark a new armed
conflict, according to Alexei Malashenko, a Middle East analyst at
the Carnegie Center in Moscow.

“There have been more border skirmishes between the two countries this
year, but this is far from a war,” he said yesterday by phone. The
situation simply shows that the two countries “aren’t prioritizing
reconciliation.”

June was the deadliest month “in a long time” for border clashes, with
at least 10 people confirmed killed, the ICG’s Freizer said. An Azeri
soldier died and another was wounded in clashes along the cease-fire
line last week, according to Azerbaijan’s Defense Ministry. Armenia
denies Azeri claims that two of its soldiers were also killed.

The “glorification” of Margaryan’s murder by Azerbaijan closes any
avenues for normalizing relations with Armenia and should concern
the West and Russia, according to IHS Global Insight analyst Lilit
Gevorgyan.

This “certainly increases the security risk for the region,” Gevorgyan
said by e-mail. “A new war is the last thing that the EU, U.S. and
Russia need right now in that region with the escalation of relations
with Iran.”

XPAT OPINION: AXE MURDERER DIPLOMACY IN HUNGARY

XPat Loop
Sept 5 2012

During the famous ping-pong diplomacy of the 1970s, the People’s
Republic of China and the US exchanged visits by table tennis players
to pave the way for improved relations between the two countries. In
a slight modification of the original model, Hungary is sending an
axe murderer to follow up on previous improvements in the country’s
relationship with gas-rich Azerbaijan.

The Hungarian government’s extradition of convicted killer Ramil
Safarov to Azerbaijan – where he was immediately released and
celebrated – was generally interpreted as a move intended to further
bilateral relations between the two countries. It appears, however,
that it is more than just a piece in the Hungarian-Azeri bilateral
puzzle; it may well be a prominent step in the overall strategic
reorientation of Hungarian foreign policy towards the East.

It is fair to say that Hungary does not regularly court controversy
in its international relations. Especially under its cantankerous
President Vaclav Klaus, the Czech Republic was for example repeatedly
in the international news on account of her openly voiced euro
scepticism. Similarly, Poland under President Kaczynski had no qualms
holding up EU summits when the president felt his country was not
sufficiently taken into account by a particular agreement. Other
small countries – e.g. Greece under Papandreou the elder – had similar
reputations from time to time.

Hungary generally preferred to behave and be thought of as a quite,
nice and reliable international partner.

Correspondingly, our foreign policy is mostly boring and scarcely
figures in the popular interest. Hungarian foreign policy news
are few and often towards the back pages of newspapers. Though
Hungary was often in the international news with negative headlines
since Orban’s return to the premiership, this did not fundamentally
alter the scandal-free workings of Hungarian diplomacy. Of all the
internationally relayed controversies since Fidesz took power, the
vast majority pertained to domestic, most often democracy-related
issues. While Orban was clearly more provocative on the international
scene than any of his predecessors – including himself – Hungary did
not get embroiled in any bilateral scandals.

A sudden storm

For the general public, therefore, the diplomatic scandal that
erupted between Hungary and Armenia came quite suddenly. Because
of the extradition to Azerbaijan and subsequent release of an Azeri
soldier imprisoned for murdering an Armenian in Budapest, the Armenian
government severed diplomatic ties with Hungary. One blogger pointed
out that this was the first instance since 1967 that the diplomatic
relationship between Hungary and another country were cut. We have not
been able to verify this piece of information, but what is definitely
true is that it is an extremely rare event. Certainly, Hungarians
are not used to seeing their national flag maltreated by foreigners,
not even in the neighbouring countries with which relationships are
occasionally tense, not to mention faraway countries of mutually
little interest.

Ties with Armenia were weak to begin with, of course, which is probably
why Armenia came to this decision so quickly and why Hungary has
reacted with such nonchalance to losing an international partner.

The practical impact of the decision appears negligible for now,
but the ethical implications and their effect on the perception of
Hungarian foreign policy are more far-reaching.

What actually happened

The man released, Ramil Safarov, was taking an English course in
Budapest in 2004 within the framework of NATO’s Partnership for Peace
programme. Not quite in line with the goals of the programme, he took
an axe and snuck into the room of a fellow student, the Armenian Gurgen
Margaryan, and murdered him in his sleep, with what the police termed
“unusual cruelty”. Safarov claimed that Margaryan had insulted the
Azeri flag, which is a distinct possibility in light of the hostility
between the two nations.

The murder, however, was certainly not an immediate, affective
reaction, but rather one of the planned, cold-blooded variety, which
makes the brutality of its execution all the more chilling.

Safarov was given an appropriate life sentence which he began serving
in Hungary, until he was suddenly extradited to Azerbaijan last week,
where as a reward for his actions and subsequent “suffering” he was
welcomed with full honours and promptly released with a presidential
pardon. He also received an impressive promotion to boot. The
Armenians’ shock and intense reaction is therefore understandable.

What did Hungary know?

Within Hungary, the most important question was why the government
extradited Safarov and whether it knew that the Azeri government
would release him. None of the potential answers are particularly
reassuring. Naturally, the government claimed that the Azeris had
promised to keep Safarov locked up, and it added that the transfer
was perfectly normal procedure within the framework of applicable
European law.

With some painful delay, the relevant document, in which Azerbaijan’s
government pledged to carry out the effective sentence, was presented
to the daily most friendly to Fidesz, Magyar Nemzet. This was an
interesting choice also because the paper’s internet portal clearly
sought to downplay the issue even as the non-Fidesz media was abuzz
with it.

Another oddity was how long it took the government to react to
Safarov’s release. It was only after an auspicious two-day delay
and considerable pounding from the press and the opposition that the
Hungarian government finally proclaimed that it was outraged by what
had occurred and promised to deliver this stern message to Azerbaijan’s
ambassador in Budapest. Outrage generally registers somewhat quicker,
as Armenia’s rapid reaction shows.

Still, it is not clear what the government knew in advance. The
absolute naïve scenario was called into doubt by Armenian President
Serzh Sargsyan, who claims Minister of Justice Tibor Navracsics
assured him a little while ago that Safarov would not be extradited.

Given Navracsics’s long history of uneasy relationship with the truth,
Sargsyan’s statement may well be true. Either way, being duped by
a country that Hungary has so assiduously courted over the past two
years also does not shed good light on the Fidesz-government. And the
Azeris’ open acknowledgment of the Hungarian government’s co-operation
in bringing Safarov home seems like mockery intended to pour fire on
the panoply of sinister speculations.

Courting Azerbaijan

What made the whole event especially suspicious were ruminations
that Hungary had reached a secret agreement with Azerbaijan that in
return for the release of Safarov the latter country would purchase
Hungarian government bonds worth billions of euros, thereby rendering
Hungary less reliant on the IMF for financing its debt.

Through Peter Szijjarto, the recently minted junior minister for
foreign and international economic policy, the government flatly
rejected any such connection and relegated it to the realm of fantasy.

The problem appears to be, however, that most commentators’ fantasy is
just not creative enough to come up with an alternative explanation why
Safarov was released in spite of ample warning suggesting that he was
widely considered a national hero rather than a criminal in Azerbaijan.

If Szijjarto and Fidesz are saying the truth, then one must consider
the timing of Safarov’s extradition extremely unfortunate, for there
is a narrative that meshes far better with the course of events than
the government’s claim. Under Fidesz, the government has strongly
intensified relations with oil-rich Azerbaijan, including state visits
and agreements.

Whether or not there the was a specific quid pro quo involving Safarov
or whether his transfer was merely intended as a signal of general
goodwill between the two nations is largely irrelevant as long as
one assumes – reasonably – that without the context of intensifying
relations he would not have been extradited.

Signs of a new foreign policy?

Until now, Orban’s repeated bashing of the West, his prophesies on
the decline of the latter and his insistence on reorienting Hungary
towards the East might have seemed like rhetoric, but Safarov’s release
marks one of the most open steps in turning rhetoric into policy. The
decision is openly accommodating of the Azeri government’s peculiar
attitude towards a nationalist killer, and makes clear – not for
the first time, witness the harassment of Tibetans during the visit
of the Chinese prime minister – that the Hungarian government will
gladly gloss over justice or human rights and similar considerations
in the interest of furthering Hungary’s material interests through
bilateral ties.

The notion that Hungary’s debt could be refinanced in the East – in
particular China- has been raised before, after all. Of course such
a “realist” view towards foreign policy is not necessarily unusual,
neither in the West nor in Hungary. The previous governments, it may
be worth recalling, were also busy cosying up to Russia and China, and
PM Ferenc Gyurcsany memorably raised eyebrows among Hungary’s European
partners by committing to Russia’s South Stream gas pipeline, arguing
that it would be built more quickly than the EU’s Nabucco pipeline.

Nevertheless, a fair comparison should also note that despite
Azerbaijani entreaties to this effect, the previous government had
refused to let Safarov go. It appears possible therefore that the
Orban government wishes to give greater consistency and substantive
heft to the previously haphazard eastern strategy, and needs it to
be accompanied by commensurate gestures towards governments that
appreciate partners who are less concerned with traditional western
sensitivities.

Those who think that further steps in this direction will
raise protests in what is essentially a slightly less developed,
but nevertheless western country, might heed Orban’s much debated
reminder uttered a few weeks ago: Hungarians are a people of “semi-
Asian origin” that need to be guided by force.