CNN: It is now up to Armenia to choose which direction it wishes to
go: Will it join the West and a community of democracies and liberal
economies, or will Sargsyan tilt Armenia more toward a Kremlin-led
community of increasingly autocratic former Soviet states
ARMINFO
Saturday, February 16, 17:28
“On February 18, Armenians will cast their ballots for president.
Although eight candidates have registered, victory and a new five-year
term for incumbent Serzh Sargsyan are a foregone conclusion. Still,
this election is not meaningless”, – CNN says in its report about the
presidential election in Armenia.
“The conduct of this poll is important, as will be Sargsyan’s choices
after the poll. If the international community gives the election a
clean bill of health, it will increase Sargsyan’s legitimacy. He will
have the opportunity to enact much needed reforms in order to move
closer to the West or, perhaps as likely, avoid tough reforms and move
Armenia ” already broadly sympathetic to Russia ” further into Moscow.
Upon first winning the presidency in February 2008, Sargsyan faced a
legitimacy crisis…This year, Sargsyan faces little resistance.
Armenia will find no such praise. Its government remains corrupt and
inefficient. The country was among the worst hit during the 2008-2009
economic crisis, with GDP shrinking by 14 percent in 2009, according
to the IMF. Since then, Armenian GDP has grown slowly – at an average
annual rate of approximately 3.5 percent between 2010-2012. In
contrast, Georgia grew by an average annual 6.6 percent in the same
three years. In 2010, according to official statistics, 35.8 percent
of Armenia’s population was living below the poverty line – an
increase from 27.6 percent in 2008. And, while neighboring Georgia and
Azerbaijan welcome foreign investors, organized crime keeps most
foreign investors out of Armenia. The Armenian Diaspora who care
deeply about Armenia’s success have long ago concluded that investing
in their homeland is a thankless task that will pay dividends neither
individually nor for Armenia.
Hundreds of thousands of Armenians now flee the country for better
prospects. Younger, more educated Armenians head to the West, while
their older, blue-collar compatriots head north to Russia. The Russian
government has welcomed these migrants, and has helped place them in
areas of Russia facing population decline. While Russia might use
these Armenians to mitigate its own demographic problem, the same
migration merely exacerbates Armenia’s.
It is now up to Armenia to choose which direction it wishes to go:
Will it join the West and a community of democracies and liberal
economies, or will Sargsyan tilt Armenia more toward a Kremlin-led
community of increasingly autocratic former Soviet states”, – CNN
says.