SYRIAN ARMENIANS: BACK TO SYRIA?
By Armenak Tokmajian
June 21, 2013
After winning the battle of Al-Qusayr, a small town near the
Syrian-Lebanese border, various news agencies began writing about a
shift in the military balance-one in favor of the Syrian Regular Army.
Both the military and political wings of the Syrian opposition
underlined the urgent need to rescue the town from falling; in
other words, admitted a possible defeat. On the other hand, the
pro-governmental sources broadcast news of Syrian Army’s advance in the
town and its adjacent territories, insisting on the importance of this
battle. Prior to the large-scale military operation in Al-Qusayr,
the military advanced in the surrounding areas of the Damascus
International Airport, which was often targeted by the militant
opposition. Currently, according to the Al-Mayadeen news agency,
which maintains reporters on the ground, the successful battles of
the Syrian Army in the north of Aleppo province has paved the way
for a larger operation to break the siege in Aleppo.
If the Syrian Army manages to break the siege, the achievement would
not merely be a strategic advance from a military point of view,
but would also decrease the suffering of the city’s inhabitants. It
would also positively influence the Armenian community in Aleppo,
which has been in a vulnerable situation for more than a year. Since
May 2012, and the “Battle of Aleppo,” the economic and security
situation of the city has radically deteriorated. After months of
clashes between the regular forces and the opposition, the city came
under a tight siege imposed mainly by the jihadist organization of
Jabhet Al-Nussra. With the blockade, local Armenians began to face
ever-increasing difficulties in accessing their basic needs: bread,
heating material, electricity, and water. Armenians in the central
parts of the city encountered better conditions, relatively speaking,
until the circle of the siege tightened to include the largely
Armenian-populated area of Al-Midan (Nor Kyug). Moreover, when the
Syrian Free Army occupied the Al-Sheikh Maksud neighborhood, in late
March 2013, Armenian-populated areas such as Al-Suleymanieh, Al-Villat,
and Al-Azizieh were subjected to an unprecedented bombing campaign.
Armenians who had the ability to leave the country did not hesitate
to join others who had already left. Thus, many Syrian Armenians now
reside outside of Syria, mainly in Armenia and Lebanon. The situation,
however, changed over the last weeks, both on the political and
military level.
Should Armenians return to their homes and re-acquire their jobs after
the recent military victories of the Regular Army, on the one hand,
and the political attempts to resolve the conflict (Geneva 2) on the
other? Rev. Haroutyun Selimyan, the head of the Armenian Evangelical
community in Aleppo, in an interview to “First Armenian News and
Analysis” on May 26 encouraged the Syrian Armenians who had found
shelter in Armenia to return to Syria. He concluded the interview
claiming that although Armenia is the motherland of all Armenians,
Syrian Armenians should not leave Syria. Indeed, Armenians generally
enjoyed good economic conditions in the country before the uprising,
whereas today many Syrian Armenians are facing serious challenges
outside of Syria. For instance, those found refuge in Armenia face
obstacles daily: Life there is relatively expensive; the youth are
finding it hard to cope to the Armenia way of life; and the schools
and universities have different rules and principles. Despite all of
these facts, however, Armenians should not be encouraged to return
to Syria, either now or in the foreseeable future, for many reasons;
I will name a few.
The pathway to Geneva 2 is very arduous. We can approach this issue
from at least two analytical angels: First, whether or not this
conference will be held is uncertain, as many of the participants
have preconditions. But Russia, as a central actor in the Syrian
conflict, is putting major pressure on the stakeholders to hold the
negotiations. There is still the possibility, then, that the conference
will be held. Second, even if the conference were to take place, it is
necessary to understand that it will not be for Syria; in other words,
only a few actors are actually interested in ending the conflict. Even
Russia, which does not spare any effort in bringing the conflicting
parties together, is not interested in ending the conflict; rather,
it aims to start a long political process. Dr. Marek Menkiszak,
a prominent expert in Russian foreign policy, argues that “… the
Russian policy concerning Syria is not about Syria, it is about Russia”
(FIIA Seminar, Helsinki 2013). In short, expecting significant changes
after Geneva 2 will be unrealistic.
Another important reason Armenians should stay away from Syria,
at least for the time being, is the nature of the ongoing war. Most
Syrian Armenians, unofficially, support or “like” the Syrian president
and prefer the continuation of the current regime. However, this war
is not merely about the regime; rather, I would argue that this war
is a deep-rooted, modern civil war with distinctive dynamics. Many
regional and international actors-that are not willing to end the
bloodshed-are involved. This civil war will not end overnight. And
even when the actual fighting ends, the struggle will continue for
decades. There are many examples of this-DRC, Angola, Sierra Leone,
Sudan, Iraq, and Afghanistan-where different parties at different
stages of the conflict have a military or political advantage, but
the war continues for years. Therefore, the current military advance
is crucial but never sufficient to conclude the war. As Stanford
Professor Ann Hironaka argues, such conflicts in the 21st century
have become “never ending wars.”
What are the perspectives of the Armenians in Syria? At this stage
of the conflict, it is very difficult to draw conclusions. However,
encouraging Armenians to return to Aleppo is not a wise strategy. Life
in Syria and, particularly, in Aleppo is becoming increasingly
expensive, with a lack of basic necessities, the economic
deterioration, and the decrease in job opportunities; in addition,
there is a major security threat to regular citizens in Aleppo. The
old life that Armenians enjoyed in Syria will not be re-established
any time soon. Therefore, there should be alternatives to Syria. The
Syrian Armenians’ situation in Armenia is becoming relatively better.
Some “success stories” are appearing in the news especially, among the
youth. Hovsep Balmanoukian, 24, who has a bachelor’s in international
relations, described in an interview with “Armenians Today Project”
how he made it into the Armenian job market and how he plans to study
at the American University of Armenia (AUA). He argues that although
life is difficult, succeeding in Armenia is possible.
Armenak Tokmajyan is pursuing a master’s degree in peace, mediation
and conflict research at Tampere University in Finland, while
working as a research assistant at the Crisis Management Centre in
Finland. He previously studied at the University of Van in Amsterdam,
at Sciences-Po in Paris, and at the University of Kalamoon in Syria.
Before enrolling at Tampere, Tokmajyan worked at the UNHCR Aleppo
Field Office in the Protection Unit. He is the author of various
research articles.
http://www.armenianweekly.com/2013/06/21/syrian-armenians-back-to-syria/