ASSOCIATING WITH EU: BRUSSELS STANCE ON KARABAKH MAY SWAY ARMENIA’S DECISION
[ Part 2.2: “Attached Text” ]
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ANALYSIS | 19.07.13 | 10:15
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By NAIRA HAYRUMYAN
ArmeniaNow correspondent
Still a few months ago Gagik Minasyan, a senior lawmaker affiliated
with the ruling Republican Party of Armenia, hinted that the choice of
Armenia between the European and Eurasian Unions will largely depend
on what they have to offer on Karabakh.
European Union Commissioner for Enlargement and Neighborhood Policy
Stefan Fule, who visited Armenia earlier this month, did not answer
this question, but said that he advised the Armenian authorities to
disclose the text of the Association Agreement with the EU. Although
the agreement is to be initialed already in November, the public in
Armenia is not yet familiar with its text and, accordingly, the EU
position on Karabakh.
Will Karabakh, a de-facto part of Armenia, also become a member of
the Association with the EU? Will the EU demand setting up outposts
on the border with the NKR thus isolating Karabakh? Or the EU still
insists on the resolution of the conflict based on the so-called Madrid
principles involving territorial concessions on the part of Karabakh?
These questions have no answers, but, judging by the fact that the
EU does not set forth conditions on Karabakh publicly, apparently
a political decision has been made to include Karabakh in the
Association program – as part of a policy of regional integration
without a political settlement of the conflict.
A few years ago when the project of Eastern Partnership had just
started, it consisted of six countries, including Armenia and
Azerbaijan. A year ago Azerbaijan was eliminated from the number of
countries with which the EU plans to sign an Association Agreement in
November. It led experts to suggest that Azerbaijan did not agree with
the EU demands regarding Karabakh and does not intend to participate
in the integration policy without a political settlement.
Reports appeared in the Armenian press recently suggesting that the
Russia-led Customs Union’s offer is not as favorable for Armenia in
terms of Karabakh as the EU’s and, therefore, Armenia has chosen the
path of European integration. Russia, analysts say, would like to gain
a foothold in Karabakh militarily by introducing Collective Security
Treaty Organization peacekeepers there. But Armenia opposes this move.
Relations between Armenia and Russia have been going downward on
the eve of the EU Eastern Partnership summit in Vilnius. After the
road accident at Podolsk, Russia, where an Armenian truck driver was
responsible for 18 deaths, a new wave of discontent rose in Armenia
in connection with the degrading treatment of the Armenian suspect.
Even protests were held in front of Russian diplomatic missions
in Yerevan and Gyumri. The Russian Embassy in Yerevan, meanwhile,
issued a statement, claiming that it was an attempt by some political
forces to undermine Russian-Armenian relations. Opinions have been
voiced in Armenia that anti-Russian sentiment, if not encouraged,
then, at least, not obstructed by Armenian authorities now.
At the Eastern Partnership summit in Chisinau, Moldova, on July 11,
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan spoke not of Karabakh, but of
Turkey. He said that Armenia’s accession to the EU Customs Union
(which is part of association) is meaningless if Turkey, a member of
the Union, continues to keep its border with Armenia closed.
Apparently, the EU is trying to persuade Turkey to open its border with
Armenia. Perhaps Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s unexpected
visit to Baku on July 18 was connected with this development. Although
the top Turkish diplomat made a number of tough statements on Karabakh
and relations with Armenia, he did not say explicitly that Turkey
will not open its border with Armenia.
http://www.armenianow.com/commentary/analysis/47829/armenia_eu_association_a