PEACE NEGOTIATIONS IN PARIS, BORDER SKIRMISHES AT HOME
Today’s Zaman
Jan 31 2014
ZAUR SHIRIYEV
The past ten days have seen escalating border skirmishes between
Armenian and Azerbaijani troops, marking one of the most prolonged
“tit-for-tat” clashes for at least the last three years and with
several fatalities reported on both sides.
Along with the worrying fact that the conflicts seem to be continuing,
the biggest threat is the emergence of biased reports and faked video
footage. This climate of misinformation is contributing the tension
and no one knows how or when it will end.
In the shadow of border skirmishes, on Jan. 24, the foreign ministers
of Azerbaijan and Armenia and the co-chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group
met in Paris to follow up on their meeting in Kiev on Dec. 5, 2013.
The objective was to prepare for a bilateral presidential meeting,
but the only reported agreement reached was for the OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs to travel to the region next month.
An analysis of the border skirmishes will enable a more detailed
assessment of the consequences of these current tensions.
Azerbaijani media reported on the border skirmishes on Jan. 19-20. The
skirmishes did not raise any flags; they were portrayed as typical
behavior by Armenian armed forces. But the situation intensified in
the following days and on the day of the Paris meeting, Azerbaijani
military aircraft flew over the contact line of Azerbaijani and
Armenian troops, signaling the worsening situation. This was followed
by the deaths of Azerbaijani soldiers and officers. The Armenian
media accused the Azerbaijani side of provoking the Jan. 19-20 border
skirmishes.
Local observers from both sides, Armenian experts in particular,
claimed that Azerbaijan provoked the clashes around the time of the
Paris meeting in order to bring the international community’s attention
to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. However, there are several arguments
against this interpretation:
First of all, the best way to get the international community’s
attention is to make the Paris meeting a success, i.e., by setting
the date for the presidential meeting. Given that at the moment,
the international community is focused on the World Economic Forum
in Davos, Switzerland, the best venue for discussion of the fragile
status of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict would be Davos. Alternatively,
the 50th Munich Security Forum that will bring together diplomats and
politicians would be a good place to highlight the issue. Indeed, it
seems as if the fighting is counterproductive to achieving progress on
a resolution. As OSCE Minsk Group Co-chair and US State Department
Deputy Spokesperson Marie Harf emphasized, the recent incidents
undermine negotiations and diminish the prospects for peace.
Second, in terms of understanding the evolution of the situation,
it is helpful to analyze the language of the two statements issued by
the Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs during the Paris meeting
and the day after. The Azerbaijani ministry’s Jan. 24 statement is
quite diplomatic, indicating prospects for a peaceful resolution with
references to “succinct, concrete and intense discussion.” The same
statement stressed that the basis for bilateral negotiations is the
restoration of territorial integrity and sovereignty of Azerbaijan.
But the very next day, the ministry’s second statement used much
harsher language, declaring that “Armenia continues its provocative
actions, making threats and purposefully worsening the situation,”
while speaking about the confidence and peace-building measures in an
effort to deceive and divert attention. One can argue that this is a
diplomatic maneuver; it is not in Azerbaijan’s interest to highlight
the border skirmishes. On the other hand, if it was a deliberate
“maneuver,” then it doesn’t make sense that the Jan. 24 statement
was relatively positive. Surely the press office would have drafted
something more along the lines of, “Due to Armenia’s unconstructive
position the meeting has not achieved any fruitful results.”
The other claim is that Azerbaijan is using these border skirmishes
to demonstrate official Baku’s military power and that Azerbaijan’s
new minister of defense (appointed in October 2013) has been seeking a
suitable moment to show the Azerbaijani army’s combat readiness under
his command. In reply to this argument, we can say both “yes” and
“no.” “No,” because border skirmishes do not provide a good venue to
showcase military readiness, since in such cases the Azerbaijani army
forces only serve to prevent Armenia’s violations of the ceasefire
conditions. If the idea was to demonstrate military readiness, then
a military operation would be required, as well as greater losses by
the Armenian army.
On the other hand, we could say “yes” on the basis that since Jan. 25,
Azerbaijan has been preparing for possibly more serious clashes, as
the situation continues to intensify. High-level military commanders
in Baku are sending the message to the public that the country is
ready for war if diplomatic negotiations fail. Thus, on Jan. 28,
the Azerbaijani Ministry of Defense held a closed discussion on the
army’s combat readiness and the necessary preparation under the Prime
Minister’s chairmanship. Long-term observers can confirm that this
is a fairly unusual measure and leaking the meeting to the media is
probably intended to reassure the public.
In this light, speculation of a worsening situation abounds. The
major consequence of the border skirmishes could be the failure of the
Azerbaijani and Armenian presidential meeting, which is anticipated to
take place around the opening of the Winter Olympics in the Russian
city of Sochi, between Feb. 7 and 23, where numerous countries’
presidents will be in attendance. In relation to Sochi, it should also
be pointed out that the continuation of border skirmishes is not in
the interests of Russia, as recent terrorist attacks in the run-up
to the Olympics have already damaged Russia’s public image. Further
indications of instability in the Caucasus region will likely deter
foreign visitors from going to Sochi. For that reason, it is likely
that Russia will intervene diplomatically to prevent further border
clashes between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
http://www.todayszaman.com/columnist/zaur-shiriyev_338154_peace-negotiations-in-paris-border-skirmishes-at-home.html