GEORGIA, ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN AGREE TO FORM TRANSCAUCASIAN CONFEDERATION BY 2019
Georgia Today, Georgia
April 4 2014
1 April, 2014. The ISET Economist was invited to attend the signing
ceremony concluding the last round of trilateral negotiations held in
Geneva under the joint sponsorship of the Swiss Confederation, the US,
Russia and Turkey. The three countries, represented by heads of states,
agreed to join the newly created Transcaucasian Confederation and thus
bring peace and a promise of prosperity to a deeply divided region
that has provided the setting for yet another round in the Great
Game – the battle between Russia and Western powers for political
and ideological hegemony in Central Asia and South Caucasus; control
over strategic trade routes (the traditional Silk Road); and access
to the vast natural resources of the Caspian basin.
The agreement, carrying the signatures of Ilham Aliev, Serge Sarksyan
and Irakli Gharibashvili, charts the political and economic contours
of the future Transcaucasian Confederation (TC). It also envisions
a series of shorter-term confidence-building measures seeking to
dissolve existing political tensions, open borders, and normalize
economic and cultural relations between the three neighboring nations.
The agreement consists of ten points outlining the main principles
of the future economic, social and political arrangements:
1. Borders. The parties agree to eliminate state borders and any
other internal barriers to the movement of goods, physical persons
and capital on the territory of the newly formed Transcaucasian
Confederation (TC). Follow up negotiations with South Ossetia and
Abkhazia will be conducted in Moscow and Istanbul to agree on a set of
confidence-building measures such as direct dialog and the resumption
of trade, transport and tourism linkages, eventually leading to the
elimination of borders between TC and these territories.
2. Territorial conflicts. Currently disputed territories, such as
Nagorno-Karabakh, will be assigned the status of autonomous tax
free zones exempting their residents (legal and physical persons)
from any taxes levied by the Armenian, Azeri and Georgian cantons. A
similar status will be granted to South Ossetia and Abkhazia should
they decide to join TC at a later time.
3. Political arrangements.
a. Modeled after the Swiss Confederation, TC will be governed by the
Federal Council, serving as collective Head of State. It will be a
collegial body of 7 members (three representing Azerbaijan and two the
Georgian and Armenian cantons, each). As a compromise between Georgia
and Azerbaijan, membership in the Federal Council will be limited to
three consecutive terms, candidates must have attained the age of forty
to be elected, and would not be allowed to serve past the age of 65.
b. The President of the Confederation will be elected by the Federal
Assembly from among the seven members, in rotation and for a one-year
term; the President chairs the government and assumes representative
functions. However, the President will be a primus inter pares with
no additional powers.
c. TC Parliament will consist of two houses: the Senate with equal
representation for each canton and autonomous region; and Congress
elected under a system of proportional representation. When both
houses are in joint session, they will be known collectively as the
Federal Assembly.
4. Neutrality. TC will adhere to the principles of military and
political neutrality and will not join the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization, the European Union, the Eurasian Union or any other
military or political bloc.
5. International trade and transit. TC will simultaneously seek
deep and comprehensive trade liberalization agreements with the EU,
the Eurasian Union, Turkey, Iran, Kazakhstan and other Central Asian
countries. Punitive transit fees will be applied on goods originating
in countries imposing tariff and non-tariff restrictions on trade
with TC.
6. Collective investment in and, ownership of, rail and road transport,
pipelines and electricity transmission infrastructure. The parties
recognize the vast opportunity for TC in restoring the role of the
traditional Silk Road route linking Central Asia to the Black Sea and
Europe, on the one hand, and forging North-South transport, trade and
energy links between Russia and Turkey, on the other. To expedite
the necessary investment in transport, pipeline and electricity
transmission infrastructure, the parties agree to the principle of
joint investment, collective ownership, building, and operation of
all existing infrastructure.
7. Capping military spending and promoting inclusive growth. The
creation of TC brings to an end a series of frozen conflicts
undermining regional security, threatening investors’ property rights
and slowing down economic development. In recognition of the above
and to address pressing social challenges, the parties agree to cap
military expenditures at 3% of TC’s combined gross domestic product
(GDP). An aggressive “military conversion” plan will be implemented
over the next five years (until 2019) to retrain former military
personnel for suitable civic occupations (e.g. drivers of tanks and
armored vehicles will be trained in the operation of tractors and
other types of heavy agricultural and construction machinery). Every
dollar saved in military expenditures will be used to promote inclusive
growth and reduce inequality.
8. Economic specialization. TC will promote regional specialization
corresponding to the natural comparative advantages of its constituent
parts. The Azerbaijani canton will mainly specialize in agriculture and
fuel production; TC’s manufacturing base will be established in the
Armenian canton. The Georgian canton will be tasked with maintaining
law &order and hospitality services. The parties realize the risk of
picking the wrong specializations such as making Armenians responsible
for fuel production; leaving law and order in the Azeri hands; and/or
counting on Georgian males to man assembly lines.
9. The teaching of history. To stop arguing whose ancestors were the
first to populate this or that hill, whose poetry had greater impact
on the world literature, and which nation was the first to adopt
a monotheistic religion, the parties agree to a joint rewriting
of regional history textbooks. In particular, the most important
technological and cultural achievements will be randomly assigned to
prominent historical figures representing the various ethnic groups
populating the region since times immemorial. As a gesture of good
will, Georgia agrees to rename “Homo Erectus Georgicus” to “Homo
Erectus Caucasicus”. Conversely, all great follies and attempts at
ethnic cleansing will be non-randomly assigned to villains of unclear
ethnic descent who shall be branded as “ultra-nationalist fascists”
and demonized.
10. Official languages, anthem, and national symbols. The three
cantons will pull their resources to construct the world’s largest
Alphabet Tower featuring all three national alphabets at the
intersection of the three national state borders. The three main
languages of the region will be given the status of state languages
and will be taught in all cantons. Nomination to any civil service
position will be conditioned on Google Translate-assisted fluency
in all three languages. TC’s anthem will include three verses, one
in each language, to be performed in a randomly assigned order. The
anthem will have as its general theme a famous aphorism by Aristotle:
“the whole is greater than the sum of its parts”.
Speaking to journalists after the signing ceremony held at
Geneva’s Grand Kempinski hotel, the three leaders explained that
the breakthrough in negotiations (which have been slowly progressing
behind the scenes since November 2012) was triggered by the recent
crisis in Ukraine. The political and military confrontation in Ukraine
provided a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for countries along the
Caucasus Transport Corridor (CTC) to attract investment and compete
with alternative trade routes via Ukrainian and Russian ports on the
Black Sea and via the Baltic ports and Russia to Central Asia. The only
way to act on this opportunity was to make peace. “And since peace
was blocked by disagreement about (arbitrary) border lines we had to
think out of the box and eliminate the root cause of the conflict –
the borders”, concluded Ilham Aliev.
* This blog was dedicated to April Fools’ Day.
By ISET Economist’s special correspondent in Geneva, Eric Livny
4.04.2014gr
http://www.georgiatoday.ge/article_details.php?id=12084