Author: Kajoyan Gevork

The Cup Runneth Over: A New Era of Oligarchic Competition

By Serouj Aprahamian on February 14, 2015

Special for the Armenian Weekly

Civic activist Artak Khachatryan was kidnapped by three masked men in
front of a shopping center in Yerevan, on Sat., Feb. 7. He was found
hours later beaten unconscious on the side of a street near his home.

Prosperous Armenia member Artak Khachatryan lies in a hospital bed
after being abducted and beaten by unknown assailants.

Khachatryan has played a leading role in protests against the
government’s controversialTurnover Tax Law affecting small and medium
sized businesses. He is also a prominent member of the Prosperous
Armenia Party (PAP), the second largest political party in Armenia’s
parliament, headed by well-known oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan.

The beating immediately prompted harsh condemnation from the PAP. The
party’s political council placed responsibility for the crime on the
ruling regime, and threatened to take to the streets and boycott
parliament should the perpetrators go unpunished.

What followed was a series of warnings from the government and
responses from Tsarukyan’s team, culminating in an aggressive speech
by President Serge Sarkisian five days later. The speech has been
characterized as a virtual declaration of war against Tsarukyan, with
Sarkisian hurling personal insults and promising to crackdown on the
opposition tycoon.

In turn, Tsarukian responded the next day calling for snap elections
and the organization of rallies, marches, protests and civil
disobedience aimed at removing the president from office.

This unexpected flurry of events has blown open a dramatic rift in the
upper echelons of Armenia’s oligarchic establishment.

Up until 2012, Tsarukyan’s party was a member of the governing
coalition and considered to be close to the president. Whatever
differences existed between the two were considered to be mostly
cosmetic. Many even felt that PAP’s leaving the coalition was a ploy
to divide the opposition, rather than an actual challenge to the
regime. As is often pointed out, the two sides even share family ties,
with one of Tsarukyan’s daughters being married to Prime Minister
Hovik Abrahamyan’s son.

So what happened to replace the oligarchic unity of the past with the
clearly deep fissures of today? Was the beating of a civic activist
enough to spark a war of words that has spilled over into open
confrontation?

Making sense of these developments requires us first to recognize
that, for businessmen of Tsarukyan’s stature, the state represents a
major threat to their wealth. Unlike oligarchs in developed countries,
the elite in Armenia do not have a stable and functioning legal system
to defend their fortunes.

Making sense of these developments requires us first to recognize
that, for businessmen of Tsarukyan’s stature, the state represents a
major threat to their wealth. Unlike oligarchs in developed countries,
the elite in Armenia do not have a stable and functioning legal system
to defend their fortunes. They must constantly find alternative ways
to maintain their privilege. This explains why so many feel the need
to directly hold political office, control media outlets, and assemble
their own private armies.

Having often gained their riches through dubious means themselves,
they are at all times susceptible to state reprisal should they raise
their head. Those who have dared challenge government policy in the
past, no matter what their status or wealth in society, have been
quickly retaliated against.

For example, during the 2008 presidential elections, opposition
candidate and former president Levon Ter-Petrosian openly tried to
court oligarchs such as Tsarukyan to his side, warning that they face
the constant risk of losing their fortunes under the current regime.
Indeed, tycoons such as Khachatur Sukiasyan who supported
Ter-Petrosyan were driven out of the country, having many of their
assets seized and handed over to pro-government businessmen. This
gloves-off response did not go unnoticed by the likes of Tsarukyan.

Even before that, the central concern of the super-rich in Armenia has
always been protecting themselves against threats to their wealth and
property. A 2003 study by the Armenia 2020 project, based on
interviews with13 leading oligarchs, concluded that “the state, its
machinery and institutions are perceived by the oligarchs as a
dangerous force, able at any moment to cause serious damage to their
business.”

Former coalition partners, oligarch Gagik Tsarukyan and President
Serge Sarkisian, have gone from allies to adversaries over recent
weeks.

Tsarukyan and his party have made clear that their main concern is
changing this economic environment in the country. They have rallied
against higher taxes, seizure of companies through state power, rising
national debt, unfavorable investment conditions, and crisis in the
financial market. An often repeated phrase from Tsarukyan and other
PAP members is that the “people’s patience has run out,” that their
“cup has runneth over,” and that is why he has entered the political
arena.

Developments over the past week have proven that the oligarchic class
is not a homogenous entity many once made it out to be. The tacit
ruling arrangements of the past have broken down. There are clearly
divergent interests at play, and opposing groupings taking shape.
Given the immense resources at his disposal, the challenge posed by
Tsarukyan to the Sarkisian regime is certainly a serious one.

Also backing Tsarukyan is the 2nd president of the country Robert
Kocharian who has been releasing specially tailored interviews on his
website, 2rd.am, criticizing Sarkisian’s reign–especially his economic
policies–and calling for radical change. In his latest interview on
Jan. 23, he stated that the biggest obstacle to progress in the
country is “the conflict between the political elite’s economic
interests and the long-term interests of the nation.”

These adversarial shifts among Armenia’s oligarchic class represent a
serious new struggle for power within the country–one that is
motivated first and foremost by defending wealth and privilege.

These adversarial shifts among Armenia’s oligarchic class represent a
serious new struggle for power within the country–one that is
motivated first and foremost by defending wealth and privilege.
Contrary to rhetoric from both sides about democracy and the common
good, what we are seeing is the polarization of the ruling elite in
terms of those connected to the state apparatus and those threatened
by or opposed to it.

It is yet to be seen what will result from this increased friction in
the upper echelons of power. What we can be sure of is that there is a
new era of oligarchic competition taking shape that is likely to have
very significant ramifications for the future of the country’s
development.

Sargis Avetisyan: The worst is yet to come

15:23 | February 14,2015 | Politics

The events taking place in Armenia today may lead to the repetition of
the Ukrainian Maidan, Chairman of the “Solidarity” Party Sargis
Avetisyan said on Saturday in connection with the strained relations
between the ruling Republican Party of Armenia (HHK) and opposition
Prosperous Armenia Party (BHK).

“We are witnessing the same ignorant talks and casual attitude towards
people. The Maidan events also started from talks when the authorities
offended the opposition using foul language and addressing them by
their nicknames. If talks continue in the same tone, we shall witness
Maidan here, in Armenia,” he said.

Sargis Avetisyan did not expect this kind of behavior from the
Republicans and says the worst is yet to come. He sees early elections
as salvation in the given situation.

“Serzh Sargsyan should not listen to his teammates. He is to make the
first step and say that he is ready to resign. The way they are
talking to the opposition today is unacceptable. You cannot rule the
country with threats,” he said.

Asked why the Republicans targeted at BHK Leader Gagik Tsarukyan, Mr
Avetisyan said, “Republicans eventually yielded to pressure and came
out against Tsarukyan. They see that 99 percent of people support the
popular movement initiated by the non-governing forces in parliament.”

Speaking about the possible return of [Armenia’s second President]
Robert Kocharyan, Sargis Avetisyan said, “Why not? Let people who can
take the country of this state run for presidency.”

Lawyer Yerem Sargsyan to examine Gyumri crime scene

15:07 14/02/2015 >> LAW

Lawyer Yerem Sargsyan, who represents the interests of the legal
successors of the victims in the murder of the Avetisyan family in
Gyumri, will travel to Gyumri today to meet with the relatives of the
victims, the lawyer told Panorama.am.

“There are several important issues to discuss. Besides, I want to
personally examine the murder scene and the nearby area, as well as
the possible routes leading to the Russian military base and to
Bayandur village,” he said.

Yerem Sargsyan was granted the possibility to carry out these
operations as Armenia’s Investigative Committee, which conducts the
investigation into the criminal case, approved his petition.

Six members of one family, including a two-year-old child, were shot
dead in their house in Gyumri on January 12. A six-month-old baby was
hospitalized with stab wounds. He died in hospital on January 12.
Valery Permyakov, a serviceman of the 102nd Russian military base
stationed in Gyumri, the main suspect in the murder, was detained by
Russian border guards while attempting to cross the Armenian-Turkish
border near Yerazgavors village in Armenia’s Shirak province.
Permyakov is held in custody at the Russian military base. He was
questioned and confessed to the crime. Permyakov is charged under
Article 105.2 and 338.2 of the Russian Criminal Code (murder and
desertion). Also, Armenian Investigative Committee brought a charge
against Permyakov under Article 104 part 2 point 1 (murder of two or
more persons) of the Armenian Criminal Code.

Source: Panorama.am

MARSEILLE
La Provence consacré un numéro de son magazine sur Les Arméiens de Provence
réception au siège de La Provence à Marseille pour le lancement du magazine

Très belle initiative du journal La Provence à Marseille. Le quotidien
vient de publier à l’occasion du 100ème anniversaire du génocide
arménien un numéro spécial de son magazine > (136 pages) en kiosque depuis le vendredi 13 février (3,50 EURO). Jeudi
12 février, à la veille du lancement de ce magazine, la direction de
La Provence avait invité à sa rédaction quelques dizaines de membres
et leaders du monde associatif, politique et culturel de la communauté
arménienne de Marseille. Ces derniers découvrirent en avant-première
ce numéro particulièrement riche sur les Arméniens avec une
soixantaine d’articles dont >, >, >, >. A noter également
l’interview de Charles Aznavour. > est
selon La Provence une

Tehran photo exhibit explores beauty of Republic Square in Yerevan
Art Desk

On Line: 13 February 2015 19:37
In Print: Saturday 14 February 2015

TEHRAN – A collection containing 20 abstract photos of Republic Square
in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, is on display in an exhibition at
Tehran’s Gallery No. 6.

The collection entitled “Water and Mirror” has been created by Iranian
photographer Mohammad-Amin Daneshvar.

The photos were taken over four trips Daneshvar made to Yerevan
according to a brochure for the exhibition.

He said that the photos of the collection have been meticulously
selected out of 4000 shots with the help of some writers, musicians
and poets.

The exhibition runs until February 20 at the gallery located at No. 2,
20th Alley, off Mirzaye Shirazi Ave.

MA/YAW

Armenian Winemaking dating back to 6,100 years. “ArmAs Estate”

February 13, 2015

ArmAs is revitalizing Armenia’s winemaking legacy by creating elegant
wines that stem from one of our country’s best natural resources, the
idyllic terroir of the vine.
It is no coincidence that Armenia, known as the birthplace of the
vine, is also the site
of the oldest known winemaking ruins, dating back to 6,100 years.
Visit

Winemaker Emilio Del Medico has paid homage to this heritage by creating award
winning, elegant and distinct wines from estate grown native varieties.

ArmAs Estate is a picturesque display of agricultural achievement, set
against the backdrop of the inspiring Mount Ararat. The 180 hectares
of previously desolate and disconnected rock-strewn countryside was
diligently transformed into a stunning panorama including vineyards,
orchards, and a world-class winery. The endeavor proudly involved and
united hundreds of people from various villages, countries, and
backgrounds who continue to teach and learn from one another. The
continued realization of the ArmAs Estate is illustrative of progress
through guidance and cooperation, and represents the assimilation of
tradition with development. Indeed, the ensuing ArmAs wines convey
these improvements, and speak especially of the abundant sunshine,
volcanic soil, undulating terrain and magnanimous earth of a resilient
culture.

Known as the birthplace of the vine, Armenia is the acknowledged site
of the origins, as well as domestication of the wild grape to its
cultivated contemporary form. This designation has both a biblical
testimony and an archaeological confirmation. According to the Old
Testament, Noah’s Ark came to rest at the peak of Mount Ararat. As the
water subsided, Noah and his sons journeyed down to valleys of modern
day Armenia, and upon recognition of the fertile soil in this unique
terrain, they planted the first vines.

In 2010, carbon dating of remains discovered by archaeologists in the
Areni-1 Cave complex, in the Vayots Dzor region definitively proved
Armenia to be the site of the world’s oldest-known wine production
facility, dating back to 6,100 years. The remains of grapes, seeds,
and dozens of dried vines were also found in this location, all of the
genus species Vitis Vinifera. Known as the “common grape vine,” most
wines produced in the world today are of this variety and have their
originating roots in the surrounding regions.

Gagik Tsarukyan holds bilateral meetings with leaders of non-power forces

by Ashot Safaryan
Friday, February 13, 18:10

Prosperous Armenia Party (PAP) Leader Gagik Tsarukyan held bilateral
meetings with the leaders of the other non-power forces. At the PAP
office, Tsarukyan met with leader of the Armenian National Congress
Levon Ter-Petrosyan. The sides discussed the domestic political
situation in the country in the light of Armenian President Serzh
Sarsgyan’s latest statement.

Tsarukyan also met with Heritage leader Raffi Hovannisian. The
discussions in such a format will be continued for a couple of day and
the non-power forces will present their further steps to the public.

At the Feb 12 session of the Republican Party of Armenia Council,
Serzh Sargsyan strongly criticized Tsarukyan for his
“pseudo-political” activities and said that he is going to exclude
Tsarukyan from the National Security Council. Sargsyan also touched on
Tsarukyan’s competence level and pointed out his failure to pay taxes.

Following Serzh Sargsyan’s Feb 12 criticism against Tsarukyan, the
leader of PAP made a speech, saying that he “is persecuted” because he
refuses to help the President to retain power by means of
constitutional reforms. Tsarukyan pointed out that in his Feb 12
speech Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan hinted at the taxes that
Tsarukyan failed to pay. “During his term in office, all the
enterprises belonging to me and to my relatives repeatedly underwent
audit”, he said. “Meanwhile, the people perfectly know who is robbing
the budget at the state level and who is engaged in kick-backs”, he
added.

THOMAS DE WAAL: IF A CONFLICT DOES EVER BREAK OUT AGAIN, IT WILL BE A FULL-SCALE WAR BETWEEN THE STATES OF ARMENIA AND AZERBAIJAN

by Nana Martirosyan

Friday, February 13, 15:10

If a conflict does ever break out again, it will be a full-scale
war between the states of Armenia and Azerbaijan, an analyst of the
Carnegie Fund, Thomas de Waal, says in an article.

He also added that Armenians and Azerbaijanis have exchanged fire
across the so-called Line of Contact and made threatening noises. But
neither side has shown any willingness to push things back over
the brink.

“The basic arguments for avoiding war remain the same. It would do
catastrophic damage to everyone. The Armenian side got most of what
it wanted in 1994. Azerbaijan, the defeated side in the war of the
1990s, has a greater incentive to back to war to try to re-conquer
lands that constitute almost 14 per cent of its de jure territory,
but it would be a very risky enterprise. Given the mountainous
terrain and the Armenian defenses, an operation could easily fail,
costing potentially not just the lives of thousands of young men in
the minefields around Karabakh, but the survival of the ruling elite
itself. Far safer for Baku to rattle sabers than to fire real guns.

The Azerbaijani side is militarily far stronger than it was 10 years
ago and the ceasefire line is almost the only place where it has
leverage over the Armenians. Over the years, Azerbaijani officials
have rejected proposals to strengthen the ceasefire by, for example,
withdrawing snipers from the front line or instituting an incident
investigation mechanism–saying that would normalize the status quo
that is unacceptable.

For their part, the Armenians periodically like to demonstrate to
Baku, the world and their own public that they still have a powerful
military and can mount operations of their own.

This year, the signals are much more worrying. At the Munich Security
Conference, the OSCE issued its third alarmed statement in two weeks.

January is usually a quiet month on the ceasefire line but this time
12 dead and 18 wounded were recorded”, – Thomas de Waal concluded.

ARMENIA TAKES PART IN DEVELOPMENT OF METHODOLOGY FOR FORMATION OF INDICATIVE BALANCES OF NATURAL GAS, OIL AND OIL PRODUCTS

YEREVAN, February 13. / ARKA /. A team of Armenian experts and
government officials took part in a meeting of a task force set
up to develop a methodology for formation of indicative (forecast)
balances of natural gas, oil and oil products, the press service of
the Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) said.

The meeting, chaired by Sergei Kolobanov, deputy head of EEC’s energy
department, was held on February 12 in Moscow. It was attended by
representatives and government officials from Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Armenia and Russia, as well as businesses community.

The draft agreement will be submitted to the consideration of the
Advisory Committee on Oil and Gas of the EEC’s Board on 25th of
February 2015.

In accordance with the Eurasian Economic Union’s (EEU) Treaty,
authorized representatives of the trade bloc should adopt the
methodology before July 1, 2015.

The draft agreement on the formation of the methodology for indicative
(forecast) balances of gas, oil and oil products was developed based
on the results of a relating research, conducted by the Institute
for Energy Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences in 2013.

The draft agreement was revised and improved by a working group set
up at the recommendation of the Advisory Committee on Oil and Gas of
the EEC’s Board.

The adoption of the agreement will unify the approaches of EEU member
states to the compilation of indicative (forecast) balances of gas,
oil and oil products and organize systematic work to ensure the
development of these balances.

The Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) is a permanent regulatory body
of the Eurasian Economic Union. It started functioning on February 2,
2012. The main objective of the Eurasian Economic Commission is to
ensure functioning and development of the EEU, to prepare proposals
for its further integration. -0-

WAR WILL CAST DOUBT ON FUTURE OF AZERBAIJANI ELITE

February 13, 2015 12:14

Thomas de Waal

Photo:

Yerevan /Mediamax/. In his article “The Karabakh Truce under Threat”,
British analyst, Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment Thomas de
Waal considers the current situation quite worrying.

“Will there be war this year in Nagorny Karabakh? Every year since the
1994 ceasefire that halted the fighting, the answer to that question
has been “No.” This year, the signals are much more worrying”,
he notes.

“At the Munich Security Conference, the OSCE issued its third alarmed
statement in two weeks. January is usually a quiet month on the
ceasefire line but this time 12 dead and 18 wounded were recorded.

The basic arguments for avoiding war remain the same. It would do
catastrophic damage to everyone. The Armenian side got most of what
it wanted in 1994. Azerbaijan, the defeated side in the war of the
1990s, has a greater incentive to back to war to try to re-conquer
lands that constitute almost 14 per cent of its de jure territory,
but it would be a very risky enterprise. Given the mountainous
terrain and the Armenian defenses, an operation could easily fail,
costing potentially not just the lives of thousands of young men in
the minefields around Karabakh, but the survival of the ruling elite
itself. Far safer for Baku to rattle sabers than to fire real guns.

The logic is still good, but the fear is growing of war by
miscalculation on the Line of Contact. What was once a muddy zone of
trenches and poorly-armed soldiers is now bristling with heavy weapons
and aircraft. The journalist and analyst Emil Sanamyan estimates that
in 2014 72 men–39 Azerbaijanis and 33 Armenians, died–making it by
far the worst year since the ceasefire.

Furthermore, the violence has spread from the area outside Karabakh to
the Armenian-Azerbaijani frontier both in the north and next to the
exclave of Nakhichevan. If a conflict does ever break out again, it
will be a full-scale war between the states of Armenia and Azerbaijan”,
the analyst writes.

Thomas de Waal recalls the OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs’ statement made
on January 27 which urged Azerbaijan to observe its commitments to
a peaceful resolution of the conflict. The analyst also touches upon
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s statement in Munich as well as
Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan’s warning that the Armenian side
reserves the right to carry out preventative strikes.

“All of this makes the situation around Karabakh more menacing. Urgent
attention needs to be paid to dampen down the situation before spring
arrives and a potentially long hot and dangerous summer”, concluded
Thomas de Waal.