Coun terPunch
September 11, 2008
Bad Blood in Azerbaijan
Cheney in the Caucasus
By MIKE WHITNEY
For the past week, Dick Cheney has been traveling through the Caucasus
trying to drum up support for punitive action against Russia for its
role in the recent fighting in South Ossetia. The Vice President vowed
that the Moscow’s action "will not go unanswered". Cheney is
determined to establish the United States as the regional "cop on the
beat", taking charge of all security operations through its cat’s paw,
Nato. Neither the Kremlin nor the EU are paying much attention to
Cheney’s fulminations. The negotiations for the security arrangements
and the withdrawal of Russian troops are being conducted without US
involvement.
On September 9, under the revolving leadership of French President
Nicolas Sarkozy, the EU hammered out a deal with Russian President
Dmitri Medvedev to replace Russian soldiers in South Ossetia with 200
EU observers who are scheduled to arrive by October 1. In exchange,
Georgia agreed to Russia’s demands not to use force against the two
breakaway republics, Abkahzia and South Ossetia. Medvedev’s unilateral
announcement that Russia would recognize both republics as
"independent", did not derail the EU peace process. Rather, both sides
focused on the withdrawal of Russia troops and seem reasonably
satisfied with the 6-point agreement.
Russia has not only scored an important diplomatic victory; it has
driven a wedge between Europe and the United States. The reckless
behavior of Georgia’s President Mikhail Saakashvili has given the Bush
administration a black eye and put Nato membership out of reach for
the foreseeable future. Saakashvili invaded South Ossetia last month;
destroyed much of the capital, Tskhinvali, and killed an estimated
1,500 civilians before his troops were routed by the Russian army.
Among the dead were Russian citizens and peacekeepers. Moscow has cut
off all relations with Tblisi and President Medvedev has called
Saakashvili a "political corpse". The Kremlin now regards its neighbor
to the south as an enemy.
Cheney’s week-long trip to the Caucasus was organized with two
objectives in mind; to isolate Russia from its allies in Europe and
speed up Nato membership for Georgia and Ukraine. He has failed on
both counts. The ashen-faced Veep flew from Baku to Kiev, from Kiev
to Tiblisi, from Tiblisi to Cernobbio; rattling his saber and railing
in typical Cold War style to anyone who would listen, but his efforts
amounted to nothing. No one in Europe wants a confrontation with
Russia or another decades-long year nuclear standoff. Besides, Putin
has spent the last eight years building partnerships and creating an
expansive energy network that provides vast amounts of oil and natural
gas to European homes and industries. Europe depends on Russia now and
wants to maintain friendly relations.
It’s different for Cheney who has been seething on the
sidelines–bogged down in the Iraqi quagmire–while Moscow has gotten
stronger and more independent from its massive energy windfall. Now
Russia can fend for itself and has no interest in becoming just
another cog in America’s imperial machine. When Putin articulated
Russia’s determination to defend its national sovereignty in Munich
nearly two years ago, saying that he rejected the idea of a "unipolar"
world, the Council on Foreign Relations and other elite think tanks
put Russia on the America’s "enemies list" more or less acknowledging
that the Kremlin would resist further integration into the so called
"international community". (aka-American-led, dollar-based system)
Last week, newly-elected Russian President Dmitry Medvedev reiterated
the Putin Doctrine word for word as it was originally stated in
Munich:
"The world must be multi-polar. Single polarity is unacceptable.
Russia cannot accept a world order, in which any decisions will be
made by a sole nation, even such a serious one as the United States.
Such a world order will be unstable and fraught with conflicts."
Medvedev has drawn a line in the sand posing a direct challenge to the
America’s continued dominance in global security. The advancing
Russian army has delivered a stinging defeat to the neocons’ imperial
ambitions in Eurasia. It is possible that the fighting in South
Ossetia will eventually be seen as a tipping point for US adventurism
in the region.
Russia’s ties with Europe threaten to shatter the increasingly fragile
Atlantic Alliance which is lashed together by G-7 banking cartel. If
Europe sees a continuation of the same belligerent Bush unilateralism
under the next US president, the popular backlash in Europe is likely
to sever the Alliance once and for all plunging the United States into
forced isolation. Reasonable people should want to avoid that
possibility.
Cheney’s Caucasus gambit is a desperate attempt to stir up trouble
while making a last ditch effort for the oil and natural gas of the
resource-rich Caspian Basin. So far, he and his colleagues in Big Oil
have nothing to show for their 20 years of labor except a few
under-performing puppets in Ukraine and Georgia. The whole plan has
flopped leaving Cheney with another failure on his resume. Just this
week, there was more news of Russia’s progress in the Central Asia
energy sweepstakes in an article by Paul Goble titled "Moscow Wins a
Major Victory on Pipelines":
"With Iran’s declaration that it opposes the construction of any
undersea pipelines in the Caspian on "ecological grounds" and thus
will block any delimitation of the seabed that allows for them and
Baku’s decision not to back the West’s push NABUCCO project, Moscow
can claim its first major political victory from its invasion of
Georgia.
"These actions mean that the Russian government will now have full
and uncontested control over pipelines between the Caspian basin and
the West which pass through Russian territory and will be able either
directly or through its clients like the PKK to disrupt the only
routes such as Baku-Tbilisi-Ceylon that bypass the Russian
Federation."
If Cheney is serious about catching-up to Russia, he’ll have to act
fast. Unfortunately, Cheney is more disliked in Central Asia than he
is in the USA where his public approval ratings have been well below
sea-level for the last 4 years. In fact, when Cheney arrived in
Azerbaijan, neither President Ilkham Aliyev nor Prime Minister, Artur
Rasizade, even bothered to meet him at the airport. Politicians
everywhere know that its is political suicide to even be seen with
him.
Aleksandr Pikaev, an analyst from the Institute for World Economy and
International Relations, noted that Cheney’s unpopularity makes
diplomacy virtually impossible. Pikaev said, " If the Bush
Administration really wanted to consolidate the international
community behind the U.S. in criticizing Russia, I think they should
have found somebody else, not Mr Cheney." But then, no one in the Bush
administration cares what anyone else thinks anyway; so the point is
moot.
Cheney’s trip had nothing to do with resolving differences between
Tbilisi and Moscow. His real goal was to secure a larger share of the
region’s dwindling oil supplies before he leaves office. As Linda
Heard points out in her article "Driving Russia into Enemy’s Arms",
the petrocarbon war is being lost in stunning fashion:
"Moscow has clinched a new pipeline that will carry natural gas
from Turkmenistan to Russia and signed a contract that will give it
virtual control over Turkmenistan’s gas exports…Russia has also put
out feelers for the establishment of a global gas cartel, an idea that
it has discussed with Venezuela, and which is certain to put cartel
members on a collision course with the White House. Venezuela has also
invited three prominent Russian companies to take over from their
American counterparts, ExxonMobil and Conoco Philips. Further,
according to China Daily, it has agreed with Beijing on an energy
initiative that would involve Russian oil and gas heading away from
Europe toward Asia."
Washington has been out maneuvered on every front by Russian
businessmen who have learned to use the free market more effectively
than their teachers in the US.
Bad Blood in Azerbaijan
According to Russia Today: "The Kommersant newspaper reports that
Cheney was very annoyed by the results of the meeting with President
Aliyev and even refused to attend a ceremonial supper in his own
honor." President Aliyev has suggested "that Baku is going to play a
waiting game concerning the Nabucco gas pipeline," which is designed
to bypass Russia. Aliyev wisely wants to avoid any confrontation with
the Kremlin.
Indeed, who can blame Aliyev? Anyone can see that Washington’s star is
waning. Political leaders everywhere are simply nodding politely and
and waiting to see whether November’s presidential election will
restore a bit of sanity to the White House. Until then, everyone is
laying low. It is unlikely that anyone will answer Cheney’s call to
pick a fight with Moscow.
The Vice President has dropped all pretense that his trip has
anything to do with the fictional "war on terror". He said that his
aim is to "develop additional routes for energy exports to promote
energy security, which is becoming an ‘increasingly urgent’ issue. We
seek greater stability and security and cooperation in this vital
region of the world," Cheney told reporters in Baku. He also met with
representatives from BP and Chevron, two oil giants involved involved
in the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline that pumps 1 million barrels of
crude per day to world markets from the Caspian. It’s all about oil.
In the second leg of his trip, Cheney headed off for Georgia where the
Regnum web site reports:
"Kommersant cites sources in the State Chancellery of Georgia who
said that closed negotiations between Mikheil Saakashvili and Dick
Cheney in Tbilisi also had not gone smoothly. The sides mainly
discussed security of existing pipelines laid through the Georgian
territory round Russia, and the Nabucco pipeline project. Dick Cheney
made it clear that the USA were ready to maintain security of these
pipelines, however, by merely political means, so Georgia would not
receive US military aid at the moment."
Trouble in Kiev
Cheney’s trip was plagued by gaffes and miscues; one-part political
kabuki, one-part Vaudeville. He arrived in Kiev just hours after
Ukraine’s pro-west coalition collapsed, plunging the country into
political chaos that could foreshadow an end to US-Ukraine alliance.
The political progress the Bush administration felt they had made by
fomenting the so called "Orange Revolution", now hangs by a thread.
Popular sentiment is increasingly supportive of Moscow over
Washington.
According to the Financial Times:
"President Viktor Yushchenko threatened to dissolve parliament and
call snap elections unless a new coalition can be formed, blaming the
crisis on supporters of Yulia Tymoshenko, his firebrand prime
minister….While Mr Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko… have engaged in a
bitter personal power struggle that has persistently handicapped the
government. …Mr Yushchenko accused Ms Tymoshenko’s followers of
plotting an ‘anticonstitutional coup’ by voting in tandem with the
opposition Communist and Moscow-leaning Regions parties in favor of
legislation to cut the president’s authority."
Russia’s friends in Ukraine have thrown a spanner in Cheney’s plans
for Nato membership and further integration into the EU. This is a
major setback for Cheney and his friends at the far-right Washington
think tanks who believed they were well on their way to encircling
Russia and achieving their territorial ambitions. Ukraine will not be
joining Nato anytime soon.
The Bush administration’s aggressive lobbying hasn’t persuaded any of
the main players in the EU to support punitive measures or sanctions
against Russia. The EU prefers diplomacy over belligerence. As a
result, Cheney has become increasingly irrelevant; a blustery sideshow
that everyone ignores except the western media. As for the EU, there’s
simply no interest in provoking Russia and risking the cutting off
cutting off vital resources to energy-dependent European countries.
Common sense has prevailed over Bush’s "freedom agenda".
Cheney delivered his most pointed remarks about the recent conflict in
South Ossetia at a global security conference in Cernobbio, Italy
where he ended his trip. He said:
"Our principles are being tested anew. We must meet those tests
with candor and resolve and, above all, with unity. Russia has a
choice to make, and we in the trans-Atlantic alliance have
responsibilities. They (Russia) cannot presume to gather up all the
benefits of commerce, consultation and global prestige, while engaging
in brute force, threats or other forms of intimidation against
sovereign countries…No part of this continent should leave itself
vulnerable to a single country’s efforts to corner supplies or control
the distribution system."
It is understandable that Cheney would be upset over Moscow’s success
in securing crucial hydrocarbons and pipeline corridors via the free
market while the US has languished in Iraq and Afghanistan with
nothing to show for its efforts except one million dead Iraqis, 4
million refugees, and a legacy of disgrace. But, in truth, Cheney’s
frustration can be summarized in two words: Sour grapes. He’s just a
poor loser.
The Medvedev Doctrine
US foreign policy elites have long dreamed of integrating Central Asia
into the western economic and security paradigm. Geopolitical
strategist and former national security advisor, Zbigniew Brzezinski,
summarized it like this in an article in Foreign Affairs more than a
decade ago:
"Eurasia is the world’s axial supercontinent. A power that
dominated Eurasia would exercise decisive influence over two of the
world’s three most economically productive regions, Western Europe and
East Asia. A glance at the map also suggests that a country dominant
in Eurasia would almost automatically control the Middle East and
Africa . . . What happens with the distribution of power on the
Eurasian landmass will be of decisive importance to America’s global
primacy and historical legacy."
A resurgent Russia–flush with the wealth derived from its vast oil
and natural gas supplies–has become a stumbling block for US regional
aspirations. Last month’s clash with Washington’s "proxy" army in
Georgia dispelled any illusion among Kremlin powerbrokers that the
Bush administration can be dealt with rationally or via normal
diplomatic channels. Cheney’s incendiary rhetoric just further
underscores this point. That’s why Russia is preparing for the worst.
Medvedev is strengthening ties with the EU, the Central Asian
countries (SCO), the BRIC countries (Brazil, India, China) and has
also deployed the Russian fleet to the Mediterranean and off the coast
of Venezuela for joint-maneuvers.
In a recent press conference, President Medvedev announced the five
fundamental principles to which his government would strictly adhere.
Third on the list was "the protection of life and dignity of Russian
citizens no matter where they live".
"There isn’t a single country in the world that would tolerate its
citizens and peacekeepers being killed," Medvedev said.
Russian citizens and peacekeepers were killed by a proxy army that was
trained and advised by "US special forces commandos". So far, no one
has been held accountable, but Medvedev and Putin know who is to
blame. Putin even suggested that the invasion was planned as a way to
improve the chances of one of the presidential candidates to win the
election.(McCain) Regardless of the reason, when one country
demonstrates that it is willing to kill the citizens and soldiers of
another country to achieve its geopolitical objectives; that’s when
friendship ends and attitudes harden.
The events in South Ossetia will play a central role in shaping
Russian foreign policy for years to come. The battle-lines have been
drawn, the fleet has been deployed, and the armies are being moved
into place. Russia does not want war, but it will be ready if one
breaks out.
Mike Whitney lives in Washington state and can be reached at
[email protected]