Armenia Scores Important Victory In World Team Chess Championship

ARMENIA SCORES IMPORTANT VICTORY IN WORLD TEAM CHESS CHAMPIONSHIP

Tert.am
10:50 ~U 13.01.10

Armenia’s national team celebrated a victory against the U.S. team at
the World Team Chess Championship, who until yesterday, had been in the
lead thanks to their star player, Hikaru Nakamura, who in the first
board had gained 5.5 points out of a possible 6. It was this chess
grandmaster that Armenia’s Levon Aronian defeated in yesterday’s match.

With this victory, the Armenian team also helped Russia, who crushed
Egypt’s team (3.5-0.5) to take the solid lead.

As it stands, the Armenian team has secured a score of 17.5 thus far,
making it 5th place in the tournament.

UYC Applies To French Ambassador To Armenia

UYC APPLIES TO FRENCH AMBASSADOR TO ARMENIA

news.am
Jan 13 2010
Armenia

On January 11, the Union of Young Conservatives (UYC) applied to
French Ambassador to Armenia Serge Smessow and requested him to take
steps for Sargis Hatspanyan to be grated the right to give the last
honors to his relative.

The UYC informed the French Ambassador that "the father of the
political prisoner Sargis Hatspanyan is dying." The UYC expects that
in this case the "Ambassador will do his best for the right to give
the last honors to deceased parents to be granted to him as well."

"Let us hope that, for this sake, the RA authorities cannot refuse the
humanitarian request of our people’s ally, France," the letter says.

Sargis Hatspanyan was sentenced to three years and six months of
imprisonment for false denunciation. Last October, in his interview
with the Haykakan Zhamanak (Armenian Times) newspaper he said that
the ex-president Robert Kocharyan and his supporters were plotting
the incumbent President Serge Sargsyan’s assassination.

Zoya Tadevosyan: The Opposition Failed To Prevent All Frauds

ZOYA TADEVOSYAN: THE OPPOSITION FAILED TO PREVENT ALL FRAUDS
Lusine Vasilyan

"Radiolur"
12.01.2010 15:34

Member of the Central Electoral Commission of Armenia Zoya Tadevosyan
has noticed a number of violations during the Sunday elections at
the Electoral District #10. According to her, the opposition did not
manage to prevent all frauds.

Zoya Tadevosyan represents the Heritage Party at the Central electoral
Commission. She said "it’s necessary to recount the votes in two
precincts."

As of the low voter turnout, Zoya Tadevosyan sees two reasons here.

First, the voter lists were exaggerated. Secondly, it could be a
result of growing disappointment of the electorate, which does not
allow believing that it’s possible to solve issues through elections.

Protocols’ Discussion To Be Recorded

PROTOCOLS’ DISCUSSION TO BE RECORDED

news.am
Jan 12 2010
Armenia

Session of RA Constitutional Court on discussion of Armenia-Turkey
Protocols will be taken down, CC President Gagik Harutyunyan said
before the Protocols’ discussion in the CC on January 12.

According to him, RA CC will inform about the passing judgment an
hour before the procedure’s completion.

Harutyunyan stated that timing of the decision making is yet unclear,
"I cannot say when the decision will be made — today or tomorrow."

Maximum term of the decision allows 3 months.

ARF Dashnaktsutyun representative Armen Rustamyan told the journalists
that recoding of the session is prescribed by the law, however
accounting for the importance of the matter, CC might make a decision
on holding session orally. He expressed hope that CC will deliver a
judgment in favor of Armenians.

January 12, 2010 at 11:00 a.m. RA Constitutional Court initiates the
discussion of Armenia-Turkey Protocols’ validity as constitutional.

January 12, Armenian Revolutionary Federation Dashnaktsutyun (ARFD) and
more than 10 parties are holding a meeting near RA CC. At the moment,
dozens of protestors and policemen gathered in front of the building.

ARS Regional Christmas Party at the Dawn of the ARS Centennial

PRESS RELEASE

Regional Executive
Armenian Relief Society Of Western U.S.A., Inc.
517 W. Glenoaks Blvd., Glendale, CA 91202-2812
Telephone: (818) 500-1343
Fax: (818) 242-3732
Web Site:
Contact: Rita Hintlian
Email: [email protected]

ARS Regional Christmas Party at the Dawn of the ARS Centennial

GLENDALE, CA – The Armenian Relief Society (ARS) of Western U.S.A.,
Regional Christmas Party was held on January 2, 2010, at the Armenag
Der Bedrossian Hall, at St. Mary’s Church in Glendale. Upon the
invitation of the Regional Executive, ARS Central Executive board
chair, Vicky Marashlian; and board advisor, Nova Hindoyan, attended
the annual event with over 300 ARS members and guests.

The enthusiasm during the event was not just, because members came
from various chapters as far as San Francisco and Fresno; it was not
just the Christmas decorations adoring the usually barren hall; it was
not just the music; it was because the ARS had just turned 100 years
old.

Jasik Jarahian, the ARS of Western USA, General Manager, coordinated
the event and acted as the MC. Rev. Fr. Ardak Demirjian, Pastor of
St. Mary’s Church blessed the tables.

ARS of Western USA, Regional Executive Board Chair, Sossie Poladian,
spoke to the crowd noting that `the ARS Centennial is a time to renew
our oath to serve with dignity and pride, and to help revitalize our
100-year old organization with new ideas and strategies, so that we
can keep up with changing needs of our communities in a
forever-changing world.’

She said that those generations who came and passed, realized that
their success depended on awareness and appreciation of the ARS
mission, and faith, and added, `With the same awareness, we will
pursue our important mission and publicize ARS programs.’

Poladian noted the importance of volunteerism in shaping the lives of
the ARS members. She said, `The ARS Centennial is a chance for us to
look back at the time we joined this great organization, sometimes
following the footsteps of our mothers and sisters into the ranks; and
how the bonding experience of working with other volunteers has shaped
our minds and hearts, and enriched our lives’.

She said that Regional Executive greatly appreciates the efforts of
each member, while continuing to utilize available resources to help
chapters. The board continues to exert efforts to pursue new programs
to build the future ARS.

Poladian completed her remarks as follows, `We hope that the new
generation of ARS members will firmly hold on to the beliefs and will
exert a level of commitment as our long-time members, so when the
torch is passed onto the new generation, we will be assured that the
ARS will be in good hands for the next Century.’

Poladian had referred to the use of new technology as one of the ways
to enhance communication. If you would like to receive the ARS Voice
Online, please send your request to [email protected] .

Jasik Jarahian, who has been in charge of this annual program, cheered
the chapters for their financial contributions as she announced them,
encouraged members to participate in the May 16th ARS Centennial Fund
event, and contribute to the memory book.

US Census representative Anahid Tovmasian explained the details of
completing forms for the 2010 Census.

Salpi Mayilian, Gagig Badalian and Varouhie Shahinian entertained the
crowd, helping to create enthusiasm and high spirits, and a desire to
not leave the hall by leaving old and new friends behind.

Sossie Poladian congratulated the crowd for being a witness to the ARS
Centennial and praised the Lord for this chance. This Christmas party
was how the ARS members were reinvigorated to continue their devoted
service to the community locally and around the world.

www.arswestusa.org

‘Sibir’ Launches Flight To Armenia

‘SIBIR’ LAUNCHES FLIGHT TO ARMENIA

ArmInfo
2010-01-11 11:25:00

ArmInfo. Sibir Airlines (S7 trademark) opened Krasnoyarsk-
Yerevan-Krasnoyarsk flight from "Yemelyanovo" Krasnoyarsk airport
on January 3. As the air carrier reports, the liners will fly once
per fortnight.

In wintertime the flights will be carried out by A319 aircrafts.

Departure time from Krasnoyarsk – 1:40 am; arrival time – 4:20 am.

Departure time from Yerevan – 5:20 am; arrival time – 1:35 pm.

According to the Company, some changes are possible in the flight
schedule. The flight cost – starting with 200 Euro. The transit
passengers of S7 are offered to use a new programme S7 Planet – a set
of special air tariffs for the passengers of S7 which are valid within
the frames of partner agreements of S7 with the partner- airlines.

Sibir Airlines is going to launch a few more flights from Krasnoyarsk
airport in the near future, including a regular flight S7-507/508
from Krasnoyarsk to Beijing, China, started March 2.

Evaluating L. A. Armenian Consul General Assertions on Protocols

Evaluating L. A. Armenian Consul General’s Assertions on
Armenian-Turkish Protocols

DIASPORA’S MOST WIDELY ACCLAIMED & CIRCULATED INDEPENDENT ARMENIAN WEEKLY
Issue #1188 January 9, 2009

Stepan Sargsyan
"ARARAT" Center for Strategic Research

For the first time during these latest negotiations surrounding the
Armenian-Turkish conflict an Armenian official engaged in a public
debate to defend the Protocols and fielded unscripted questions
directly from the audience in Los Angeles. The U.S.-based Diaspora
organization called ARPA Institute had organized a debate between the
Honorable Consul General of the Republic of Armenia to Los Angeles
Grigor Hovhannissian and two Diaspora academics. Dr. Richard
Hovannisian moderated the debate. The Consul General deserves a lot of
praise for agreeing to discuss the Armenian-Turkish conflict and the
recently signed Protocols in such a public forum, despite the
persistent efforts by his superiors in Armenia, namely President Serzh
Sargsyan and Foreign Minister Edward Nalbandian, to avoid having any
meaningful public discussion with the Armenian people regarding this
issue. It must be noted that a lot of heartache and mistrust could
have been avoided had these discussions been held prior to agreeing to
the Roadmap and drafting the Protocols.

Articles describing the debate and the ideas that were exchanged have
been written and may continue to be written 1 . Whoever has followed
this process since the beginning and is intimately familiar with the
various arguments put forth by the supporting and opposing sides can
attest that nothing markedly new was added during the debate. Before
delving into the details of his speech, the Consul General referred to
the unfavorable economic forecasts offered by the opposing camp as
"amateur." In fact, the discussion of the economic benefits of opening
the factual border between Armenia and Turkey took the majority of the
15 minutes allotted to the Consul. What stood out, though, was Mr.
Hovhannissian’s extensive use of technical terms and specialized
vocabulary when referring to key economic concepts not commonly known
by the general public. It shall be left to the Consul General to
explain why he chose this tactic (use of unfamiliar terminology and
concepts) for the debate, given that the goal was to alleviate the
concerns of a bewildered Armenian public, which, on average, would not
have been expected to know the economic definitions of consumer
surplus and comparative advantage. However, his incorrect
interpretations of those key economic concepts and the resulting
unfounded conclusions cannot be left unaddressed and must be
scrutinized. This brief analysis will attempt to do just that by
evaluating the Consul General’s own interpretations and applications.

Mr. Hovhannissian’s economic arguments can be reduced to the following:

* Open border and imports from Turkey will weaken the Armenian
oligarchy and break-up its tight grip on the Armenian economy;
* Lack of competition kills Armenia’s comparative advantage;
* Cheaper imports from Turkey will increase consumer surplus in Armenia; and
* Turkey offers "more predictable and better" trade routes.

It must also be noted that Mr. Hovhannissian made a direct linkage
between the Protocols and Armenia’s negative economic growth in 2009.
According to him, Armenia experienced an 18% fall in its gross
domestic product 2 (GDP) in 2009; therefore, the government had to
resort to all means to lessen the negative effects of such a severe
economic contraction. While it is true that in 2009 the Armenian
economy shrank by 18%, it had absolutely no effect on the rationale
for initiating this latest round of the Armenian-Turkish negotiations.
While President Serzh Sargsyan made the negotiations public in June of
2008, this new phase had started with the advent of the "secret"
Armenian-Turkish talks in Switzerland as early as the fall of 2007,
when the Armenian economy was still growing in double digits.
Justifying the Armenian-Turkish negotiations with the 18% decline of
2009 does not at all elevate the Consul General’s argument above those
"amateur" analyses he has come across in the Armenian press.
Thus, let us review each of the economic assertions outlined above.

Break Up of Oligarchy

During his speech the Consul General reiterated that the opening of
the factual border will weaken and break up the Armenian oligarchic
system. The specific steps that would lead to the demise of the
oligarchy were not outlined, but the general line of reasoning was
implied: the opening of the border will allow the inflow of cheaper
goods from Turkey, which in turn will erode the monopolistic hold of
powerful Armenian businessmen on the domestic market.

If a particular set of assumptions are selected, the simplified
"world" of economic models may actually yield the outcome predicted by
the Consul General. Under the right circumstances, the emergence of
another source of imports, especially cheaper sources, will create
competition to the existing monopoly and reduce its influence on the
market along with that of the oligarchs. However, this is where the
problem arises – assumptions. Economic models are used to analyze
real-world issues, because they allow the economists to simplify the
reality by making certain assumptions. If incorrect assumptions are
made, the model will predict outcomes that will never occur in the
real world. In our example one underlying assumption is that the
Armenian legal system functions properly, there is no collusion, no
corruption, etc. Unfortunately, that is not the reality in Armenia
today.

The Armenian businessmen are entrenched in the government and maintain
relationships with government officials that resemble to those of
business partnerships. Let us assume that the factual Armenian-Turkish
border is opened and a new source of imports emerges. All imported
goods have to pass through the customs (either at border checkpoints
or at airports), where a customs official determines who can import,
what can be imported and at what price. In other words, the
concentration and structure of the domestic markets of imported goods
are ultimately shaped not by the status of the border and market
forces, but by the decisions of the customs officials. Even if all the
borders of the Republic of Armenia were relieved of their blockades,
the customs employees would still make the decision regarding who,
what and at what price. In the sad reality of Armenia the customs
officials are directly linked to powerful Armenian businessmen and
make decisions not with the interests and laws of the state in mind,
but considering those of their oligarchic patrons. Often, the head and
other senior officials of the customs are themselves wealthy
businessmen with business interests in various domestic markets of
imported goods.

The example of the coffee importing company Royal Armenia is telling.
Senior customs officials had offered the directors of the company to
register the imported coffee at the customs at lower prices in return
for sharing the resulting extra profit3. After refusing the "offer"
and making it public, the directors had been charged with various
trumped up charges and arrested. Even the presiding judge, who had
sensationally acquitted the directors, had been dismissed and the
directors had been arrested again. This case shows that the state of
internal governance in Armenia and the widespread corruption and
collusion among government officials do not even allow to fully
utilize the opportunities offered by the existing open borders for
de-monopolizing and diversifying the domestic market. Yet, such cases
are widespread. It is of no secret that one of the sons of former
President Robert Kocharian had a virtual monopoly in the import of
cell phones. Similarly, another oligarch, Samvel Aleksanian, holds the
monopoly over the imports of sugar and other commodities. Had others
been allowed to freely engage in entrepreneurship, import/export and
other economic activity, the current oligarchs would not have the
immense pricing powers, which in turn translate into enormous profits.
Does any customs official have the stamina to refuse a request from a
mighty oligarch, let alone the son of a president, to create barriers
to entry to other potential businessmen? The monopolistic structure of
the market in Armenia is nurtured from within and is not necessarily
conditioned by external factors. If the opportunities offered by the
existing Armenian-Georgian border are not being fully utilized to
combat the oligarchs and diversify the importers (as the case of Royal
Armenia shows), what notable difference would the addition of the
Armenian-Turkish factual border make? The Turkish soldiers may allow
imports to flow in from the Turkish side, but it is the Armenian
customs officials who will decide who, what and at what price can
transport those imports into the Armenian side. Any added measure of
competition resulting from the opening of the blockaded factual border
will be stifled by the corrupt Armenian officials at the request (and
adequate compensation) of those very same oligarchs. Everyone became
very optimistic when an attempt was made to clean up the corruption
within the Armenian customs after the election of Serzh Sargsyan.
Unfortunately, the current situation is even worse than it was during
the Kocharian administration. Therefore, there is no indication that
anything has changed or will change in the very near future.

Returning to the Consul General’s prediction, the opening of the
Armenian-Turkish factual border will shake the foundation of the
Armenian oligarchy and erode their power if and only if the internal
governance in Armenia is improved, corruption is eradicated and
collusion of businessmen and government officials is addressed.
Without it the all-powerful Armenian oligarchs will continue
controlling the levers capable of neutralizing anything that threatens
their privileged position. In these circumstances, it would be wiser
to exhaust all the internal means of combating the oligarchy before
turning to external factors. Otherwise, this argument sounds awfully
similar to the Azerbaijani leadership’s preposterous claim that the
lack of solution in the Nagorno Karabakh conflict is what hampers
progress in democratic governance, respect of human rights and freedom
of speech in Azerbaijan.

Competition and Comparative Advantage

In his assertions the Consul General also referred to the concept of
comparative advantage. Mr. Hovhannissian claimed that the lack of
competition kills Armenia’s comparative advantage. This statement is
at odds with the definition of that key concept, which is the ability
of an individual or country to produce a good at lower cost or more
efficiently than competitors4. Originally, the concept of comparative
advantage was proposed by David Ricardo, who used the examples of
Portugal and England to show that Portugal was relatively more
productive in producing wine thanks to its climate and geography,
while those same characteristics made England relatively more
productive in the production of wool. Therefore, the relative
advantage in the production of a certain good – comparative advantage
– is determined by innate or internally developed capabilities.
External factors, such as trade or competition, only exploit the
benefits offered by the existing comparative advantage. Countries
generally attain comparative advantage in a specific industry thanks
to the climate, the geography, the existence of natural resources,
relative abundance of labor and capital, technology, etc. No matter
how hard Armenia competes with Saudi Arabia or how many open border
crossings the two countries share, Armenia will not achieve a
comparative advantage over Saudi Arabia in the production of oil. The
Consul General’s statement implies that this is possible.

What are Armenia’s comparative advantages? This requires an extensive
review of the various factors mentioned above. However, it may be
noted that during Soviet times Armenia excelled in industries which
required solid intellectual grounding and highly skilled workforce. As
in the previous discussion regarding the oligarchy, this economic
concept implies that spurring competition by relieving the blockade
will not improve Armenia’s comparative advantage if the country does
not already possess one. To develop one, the Armenian officials must
turn their attention to the internal resources and capabilities, draft
plans and policies to further develop the capabilities where Armenia
has the most potential to excel and implement those plans consistently
over time. In addition, it is not uncommon to use different
protectionist measures, such as trade barriers and tariffs, to support
a capability and give it a chance to evolve into a comparative
advantage, especially in technological sectors. However, this would
conflict with another statement that Mr. Hovhannissian made, which
asserted that "open borders and zero tariffs are the way to go." This
motto will be further examined in the following section.

Armenian Consumer Surplus

One of the key economic concepts referred to by the Consul General in
his speech was consumer surplus. Specifically, he argued that the
import of cheaper goods from Turkey will increase the consumer surplus
in Armenia. In order to understand how and why this occurs, let us
review the economic definition of consumer surplus, which is "… the
difference between the highest price a consumer is willing to pay and
the price the consumer actually pays5." For example, if a tomato paste
costs $3, but the consumer is willing (and able) to pay $4, then the
consumer surplus is $1, the difference between the $4 and $3.
Accordingly, if the tomato paste can be imported from Turkey more
cheaply, at $2, the consumer surplus in Armenia will increase to $2,
which is the difference between the $4 and the new price of $2.
Clearly, in such a construct the Armenian consumer is the clear
winner. Unfortunately, this is only the first half of the story.

Let us assume that the economies of Armenia and Turkey consist of the
production of the same single good. When reviewing consumer surplus,
one should also consider the producer surplus, both of which comprise
the total economic surplus in an economy. Similar to the consumer
surplus, the producer surplus is the difference between the lowest
price a firm would be willing to accept and the price it actually
receives6. If a good can be imported from Turkey more cheaply than it
can be produced in Armenia, the Armenian producer will be pushed out
of the domestic market, resulting in the severe reduction (or the
disappearance) of the Armenian producer surplus. To be more precise,
the lost Armenian producer surplus will be shared by the Armenian
consumers and the Turkish economy (through their exporters). Along
with the Armenian producer the local jobs provided by that producer
will disappear as well. Thus, if during the first phase of this
process the Armenian consumer appeared to be a winner, during the
second phase the consumer is worse off, because without a job his
income shrinks. Despite the lower price of the imported good, the
Armenian consumer surplus will decrease almost by definition, because
the highest price the consumer is willing (and able) to pay will be
significantly lower due to lower income (or the lack thereof). In
summary, during the first phase the Armenian consumers and Turkish
exporters overtake and share the Armenian producer surplus, as a
result, reducing the total economic surplus in Armenia. During the
second phase, the Armenian consumer surplus is reduced due to
shrinking consumer incomes, which results from job loss. This, in
turn, reduces the total Armenian economic surplus even further.

What is the implication for the Armenian economy? Let us take the
example of the agricultural sector. The Turkish agricultural sector is
stronger and more developed (i.e. more mechanized, more plains and
fertile land, etc.) than the Armenian agricultural sector. In other
words, Turkey has a comparative advantage over Armenia in the
production of agricultural goods. In case of open borders and
unrestricted trade Turkey’s comparatively higher efficiency in
agricultural production has the potential to cripple the Armenian
agricultural sector, which employs almost 50% of the labor force in
Armenia. Unfortunately, this is also true in the case of other sectors
of the Armenian economy with more or less meaningful economic
activity. Turkey commands the advantage in most. Combine the impact
from the agricultural sector with the similar impact from other
industries, such as food processing, textile, construction, and one
finds a recipe for social disaster. The income and job generation from
potential electricity sales to Turkey will not be sufficient to
compensate and soften the economic pain. To avert a potential social
disaster the government will be compelled to impose tariffs in an
effort to recreate the situation prior to the opening of the border
and buy time for the Armenian economy to develop sectors in which the
country possesses comparative advantage. Let us be clear. It is
irrational to continue indefinitely sustaining sectors of economy in
which Armenia does not hold the comparative advantage. It only
perpetuates the inefficiency and wastes the limited valuable
resources. Therefore, imposing tariffs to support those inefficient
industries is only a temporary measure designed to soften the pain
associated with the transitioning of resources from inefficient
sectors of the economy (i.e. killing off industries) to those sectors
where Armenia is more efficient (i.e. holds comparative advantage).
Without the tariffs or other protectionist measures intended to soften
the blow, Armenia will become subject to the consequences of a "shock
therapy," or the situation of the early 1990’s in the former USSR
countries.

Another activity that might have eased somewhat the negative economic
impact would have been the potential establishment of new
Turkish-owned businesses within Armenia to produce the imported goods
locally. However, this activity is constrained by the very fact that
Armenia does not possess the comparative advantage in the production
of the imported goods; otherwise, these goods would continue to be
produced locally and would not have to be imported from Turkey in the
first place. Therefore, the number and size of such enterprises will
be limited and conditioned by the cost of transportation from Turkey
to Armenia and the amount of Armenian tariffs. What is ignored in a
strictly economic analysis is the ubiquitous security threat posed by
foreign-owned businesses. The preceding discussion has assumed that
Turkey will allow the market forces to shape the economic relationship
between Armenia and Turkey. Unfortunately, the review of Turkey’s
hostile policies towards Armenia during the past two decades leaves
little room for such an optimistic expectation6. It would be more
realistic and pragmatic to expect that Turkey will shape the economic
relationship between the two countries so that it is detrimental to
the long term viability of the Armenian state. After all, there is no
indication that Turkey has abandoned the old plans of preventing the
emergence of a self-reliant and truly independent Armenian statehood.
At all times and in all countries foreign-owned corporations have
collaborated with the intelligence services of the countries of their
origin. That is why Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan’s invitation
extended to Turkish businesses to participate in the construction of
Armenia’s new nuclear power plant was as incomprehensible and
dangerous as President Serzh Sargsyan’s call to Turkish President
Abdullah Gul to assist in the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh
conflict. Currently, we are all witnesses to the kind of assistance
Turkey is providing in that issue.
The logical question is then whether an open border with tariffs is
better than a blockaded border. Imposing tariffs on an open
Armenian-Turkish factual border will shift the revenue from the
Georgian customs to the Armenian state coffers. First of all, since
Armenia is compliant with WTO rules and regulations, that
organization’s limitation on the amounts and types of tariffs that
Armenia can impose must be observed. In fact, as part of accession to
the WTO Armenia pledged to reduce or eliminate certain types of
subsidies to the agricultural sector. Therefore, in the case of an
open border Armenia will be limited in available options to restrict
or control the flow of goods through the Armenian-Turkish factual
border. Second, in assessing whether this additional revenue from
tariffs will add to the bottom line of Armenia we must consider all
the costs (explicit and implicit) associated with the Protocols and an
open border. Here are just a few of them:

* Long-term costs associated with the serious compromises made by
the Armenian side (recognition of the de facto borders and the
historical commission);
* Additional cost of policing an open border;
* Increased cost incurred by the national security services of
Armenia in preventing the potential economic and other types of
hostile actions by an enemy state. This also includes covert actions
by Azerbaijan through the open Armenian-Turkish factual border;
* Potential demographic challenges arising from the ease of
migration of Armenian workers to Turkey and migration of Turks to
Armenia under various pretexts (work, "repatriation," etc). Let us
note that the groundwork for a massive resettlement of Turks as well
as Kurds in Armenia is being laid right now thanks to the "discovery"
of millions of "Muslim Armenians" or "Hidden Armenians7, 8 ."
* Increased cost of countering the elevated levels of
informational-psychological warfare, this time conducted within
Armenia by Turkey and, indirectly, by Azerbaijan. It must be noted
that Armenia’s weak defenses against information warfare and
propaganda will be unable to cope with the total disorientation and
loss of vigilance among Armenians caused by intermarriages with Turks,
employment under Turkish managers, business partnerships and other
relations with citizens of Turkey. Here are just a few examples:
– Armenian authorities tolerate and even promote the use of the
word genocide in quotation marks in reference to the Armenian Genocide
within Armenia. Only a few years ago the Armenian public was outraged
at an Israeli ambassador who dared to doubt the Armenian Genocide and
demanded that she be designated a persona non grata. Yet, already in
2008 the Yerevan-based Caucasus Institute published a book in Armenia
in which there was an explicit denial of the Armenian Genocide by a
Turkish author. The extent of the success by unfriendly foreign
propaganda became obvious when an Armenian judge, who presided over
the first ever lawsuit against genocide denial in Armenia brought by
the "ARARAT" Center for Strategic Research against the Caucasus
Institute, made a decision to suspend the case, implicitly agreeing
that using the word genocide in quotation marks, referring to the
Armenian Genocide as "allegations" and calling it subject to "serious
doubts … and intense discussion …" did not constitute genocide
denial in Armenia 9 . To add insult to injury, immediately after the
suspension of this case in the Court of First Instance, the Turkish
genocide denier himself was invited to Armenia to participate in a
seminar attended, among others, by Hayk Demoyan, the director of the
Yerevan Institute-Museum of Genocide;
– The gaping holes in Armenia’s defenses resulted in the
organization of "Days of Azerbaijan" in Armenia in 2007 by some
members of Armenia’s intelligentsia (e.g. Ashot Bleyan, Georgiy
Vanyan), while the Azerbaijani leaders were ordering the destruction
of the cross stones in Jugha, the beheading of the Armenian officer in
Budapest, issuing threatening statements to Armenia, referring to the
territory of the Republic of Armenia as Western Azerbaijan, etc.
Turkey will be more subtle, yet, far more damaging than
Azerbaijan. Let us not forget that on the eve of both 1915 and 1988
the Armenians and Turks/Azeris were in "brotherly" relations. What
followed were the Armenian Genocide and the massacres of Sumgait,
Baku, Maragha.
Without delving into the numerical detail it is obvious that
these costs will far outweigh any additional revenue from the
imposition of tariffs.

Now, let us return to the statement made by the Consul General
regarding "open borders and zero tariffs." As the Consul had correctly
stated, this is the official line of the Armenian government, which is
not yet achieved, but is religiously pursued. Generally, no one argues
that open borders and zero tariffs are wrong. As stated earlier,
sustenance of inefficient industries through protectionism (e.g.
tariffs, quotas, etc.) wastes the limited valuable resources that
could be invested in sectors where Armenia possesses comparative
advantage. However, in certain instances protectionism offers a path
towards increased competitiveness. For example, the European
governments continued subsidizing the Airbus project for years until
it was able to stand on its own and directly compete with Boeing.
Industries which require time and large investments to acquire a
competitive edge necessitate the use of such protectionism. On the
other hand, just recently the European Union imposed new tariffs on
aluminum imports from various countries, including from Armenia. While
this tariff on aluminum imports is without merit and rife with
criticism, it still underscores the fact that the motto "open borders
and zero tariffs" is not perceived so unambiguously even by one of its
most wealthy and ardent supporters – the European Union. Yet, when the
Armenian Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan was asked about the dangers
posed to the Armenian economy by the more developed and powerful
Turkish economy, his advice was essentially to sink or swim. In terms
of a sport analogy popular in our Foreign Ministry as of late, the
Armenian Prime Minister’s advice is equivalent to putting an untrained
amateur lightweight boxer in a fight with a super heavyweight
professional boxer and asking the amateur to win the match if he
really wants to become a boxer.

Predictable and Better Trade Routes

One of the final arguments put forth by the Consul General posited
that Turkey offered "more predictable and better" trade routes. One
would think that Armenia’s recent experience with Turkey would have
dispelled any notion of that country being a reliable partner of
Armenia. Turkey closed off the factual border at a time when Armenia
was in most need of it. The centrally planned Soviet economy had not
yet adjusted to the new realities and closed borders, shortages of all
commodities plagued Armenia. However, this did not stop Turkey from
using the border as a pressure point to force Armenia into
geopolitical compromises (e.g. surrender of the newly liberated region
of Karvajar as well as Artsakh at large). When qualifying the Turkish
trade routes as predictable and secure, do the Armenian officials
recall these historical events? Turkey has not pledged that it will
stop its hostile policies towards Armenia. In fact, it continues to
pursue its old policy of forcing Armenia into making concessions in
the issue of Artsakh. Yet, our officials and experts have already
dubbed the Turkish routes "predictable and better" and discounted the
need for alternative, reserve routes. Has the Armenian government
acquired a newly found confidence in the genuine intentions of Ankara?
What assurances do we have that during one such inopportune moment, as
in 1993, Turkey will not try to force her will upon Armenia by
threatening to close the border, this time a functioning border fully
integrated into the Armenian economy? As to how can a territory with a
raging Kurdish insurgency and heavy military presence be considered a
"more predictable and better" trade route, where even the heavily
protected Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline can be blown up (whether
orchestrated or not), is perhaps a redundant question…

Conclusion

At the conclusion of the debate, moderator Dr. Richard Hovannisian,
historian by training, shared with the audience what he had learned
from an Indian student during an undergraduate seminar. Qualifying it
with "I don’t know if I agree with it", the professor proceeded to say
that, according to the Indian student, opening the border would be a
good thing, because it would destroy the oligarchs along with a part
of the Armenian economy. Nevertheless, the student had opined, this
would instill competition and compel Armenians to develop their
"intellectual" export industries. The student had supported his view
with India’s example, which had stopped protective tariffs and had
developed a high-tech industry.

All the theories advanced by the Indian student have already been
evaluated in the paragraphs above. To supplement what has already been
said, India’s high tech industry grew not so much thanks to the
abolition of all tariffs, but rather the elimination of the
bureaucratic hassle involved in starting a new business and internal
corruption. These very same problems exist in the Armenian economy and
need to be abolished. However, the Indian student’s insights are not
the reason for the inclusion of his quotation in this analysis. The
mention of him at the conclusion of the debate symbolized one of the
most glaring deficiencies in Armenia’s treatment of the
Armenian-Turkish conflict – the lack of serious scientific study of
the conflict and professional approach. As Dr. Armen Ayvazyan notes:
"… the policies and approaches displayed by the Armenian political
elite and social-political thought towards the [Turkish-Armenian
Conflict] are still amateur in nature6." During the discussion of what
may likely be one of the most fateful documents in this generation’s
lifetime, the concerned Armenian public was served the "insights" of
an undergraduate Indian student, despite the fact that any number of
economists at the UCLA, where Dr. Richard Hovannisian holds the chair
of modern Armenian history, could have been approached for a scholarly
opinion. Rest assured that if nothing else, the deep veneration for
Armen Alchian, a distinguished economist and an icon in the UCLA’s
department of economics, would have compelled any faculty member to
respect such a request and offer an expert opinion. The incorrect
interpretations of key economic concepts and incorrect or incomplete
conclusions presented during this debate are yet another expression of
Armenian leadership’s unscientific approach to the Armenian-Turkish
conflict. As opposed to making a decision based on the findings of
serious scholarly research, the political leadership makes a
situational decision hoping for "quick fixes" to serious geopolitical
and economic problems, after which pseudo-scientific and other
arguments are sought to justify it.

——-

1. Asbarez.com, "Armenia’s Consul General Comes Face-to-Face with
American-Armenians," retrieved from
cs-of-the-turkish-armenian-protocols-discussed-in- the-valley/

2. The GDP is the value of all the goods and services produced in a
given a country during a year. ?©
3. "Criminal Case Against Royal Armenia’s Management Sent To
Court," retrieved from
/index.php/t-66885.html
"Armenia: Presidential Dismissal of Judge Sparks Outcry over
Judicial Independence Issue," retrieved from
/articles/eav101807.shtml

4. Hubbard, R. Glenn "Microeconomics," Pearson Prentice Hall 2006, p. 247. ?©
5. Hubbard, R. Glenn "Microeconomics," Pearson Prentice Hall 2006, p. 100. ?©
6. Ayvazyan, Armen "Concise Structural Analysis of Turkish-Armenian
Conflict," retrieved from This
analysis lists the many levels of hostile policy actively carried out
by Turkey towards Armenia. ?©
7. Melkonyan, Ruben "The Problem of Islamized Armenians in Turkey,"
(in Armenian) article in the "21st Century" quarterly, issue #1, 2008.

8. Ayvazyan, Armen "There are no Muslim Armenians", (in Armenian)
retrieved from ;l=arm&amp ;p=22. This
article was originally published in Russian in Golos Armenii newspaper
on 16.12.2008; Nalchajyan, Albert "Ethnic Identity or National
Self-defense", retrieved from ?©
9. Refer to the following links for the text of the first lawsuit
against the denial of the Armenian genocide in Armenia and the
articles on the court’s verdict:
and

http://www.asbarez.com/2009/12/23/the-semanti
http://www.armeniandiaspora.com/forum/archive
http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight
http://blog.ararat-center.org/?p=253.
http://www.ararat-center.org/?art=34&amp
http://blog.ararat-center.org/?p=172.
http://blog.ararat-center.org/?p=325
http://www.ardarutyun.org/?p=741.

Living out Turkey’s hidden history

The Age, Australia
Jan 11 2010

Living out Turkey’s hidden historyDAN BILEFSKY, ISTANBUL
January 11, 2010 .
Fethiye Cetin has special hopes for a Turkish-Armenian accord.

FETHIYE Cetin still recalls the day her identity shattered.

She was a young law student when her beloved maternal grandmother,
Seher, took her aside and told her a secret she had hidden for 60
years: that Seher was born a Christian Armenian with the name Heranus
and had been saved from a death march by a Turkish officer, who
snatched her from her mother’s arms in 1915 and raised her as Turkish
and Muslim.

Cetin’s grandmother, whose parents later turned out to have escaped to
New York, was just one of many Armenian children who were kidnapped
and adopted by Turkish families during the Armenian genocide, the mass
killing of more than a million Armenians by the Ottoman Turks between
1915 and 1918.

Now Cetin, a prominent advocate for the estimated 50,000-member
Armenian-Turkish community and one of Turkey’s leading human rights
lawyers, believes a moment has arrived in which Turkey and Armenia can
finally confront the ghosts of history and possibly even overcome one
of the world’s most enduring and bitter rivalries.

In October, Turkey and Armenia signed a historic series of protocols
to establish diplomatic relations and to reopen the Turkish-Armenian
border, which has been closed since 1993. The agreement, which has yet
to be ratified in the Turkish or Armenian parliaments, has been
vociferously opposed by nationalists on both sides. It could help to
end landlocked Armenia’s economic isolation, while lifting Turkey’s
chances for admission into the European Union.

But Cetin argued that the most enduring consequence could be helping
to overcome mutual recriminations. She published a memoir about her
grandmother in 2004, deliberately omitting the word ”genocide”
because she believes that using it erects a roadblock to
reconciliation.

”Most people in Turkish society have no idea what happened in 1915,
and the Armenians they meet are introduced as monsters or villains or
enemies in their history books,” she said.

”Turkey has to confront the past, but before this confrontation can
happen, people must know who they are confronting. So we need the
borders to come down in order to have dialogue.”

The Armenian authorities are short-sighted, Levon Ter-Petrosyan

news.az, Azerbaijan
Jan 9 2010

The Armenian authorities are so short-sighted, Levon Ter-Petrosyan
Sat 09 January 2010 | 05:28 GMT Text size:

Levon Ter-Petrosyan "All our victories were real, not just moral.

Our key victory is that 2 years after the presidential election we are
strong and united as never before despite the tragic events of March
1, persecutions and arrests," said Levon Ter-Petrosyan, Leader of the
Armenian National Congress, during the rally of his supporters. He
welcomed Suren Surenyants and Hmayak Hovhannissyan who withdrew their
candidatures in favor of Nikol Pashinyan. "Can you imagine something
like this in the camp of the authorities?" he said.

He said the election at the district No10 were falsified from the very
beginning. He is sure that in no other country a candidate for
parliament could be arrested. "The letter of the law is prior for the
country. However, the Armenian authorities are so short-sighted that
they did not understand that they could gain dividends from the
international community if they did not arrest Pashinyan," Levon
Ter-Petrosyan said. For conclusion, he said that Nikol Pashinyan has
already gained victory in the election given the number of the
participants in the rally. He also said that the next ANC rally will
be held on March 1. After the rally, 1500-2000 participants in the
rally went in a procession along the streets.

The ANC rally is timed to the additional parliamentary elections in
the election district No10 scheduled for January 10. Nikol Pashinyan,
the oppositionist, the editor of Haykakan Zhamanak Daily, who is
currently in custody, advanced his candidature at the elections.
Pashinyan is charged with Articles 316.1 and 225.1 of the Armenian
Criminal Code (organizing mass public disturbances, using force
against a representative of the state and violating the law regarding
the staging of public events).

Pashinyan had been wanted for over a year and emerged from the
underground after the president announced amnesty. The deputy mandate
of the above election district proved vacant after the former
parliamentarian Khachatur Sukiasyan was deprived of his mandate for
complicity in the incidents of March 2008 in Yerevan.

BAKU: Process on Release of Armenian-captured Eldar Tagiyev on 1/12

APA, Azerbaijan
Jan 7 2010

Process on release of Armenian-captured Eldar Tagiyev to become active
from January 12

[ 07 Jan 2010 18:28 ]

Baku. Kamala Guliyeva ` APA. The representatives of the Azerbaijani
office of the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), who
visited the family of Tovuz resident Tagiyev Eldar Heydar captured by
Armenian servicemen on December 28, said the process on his release
will become active from January 12. Eldar Tagiyev’s family told APA
about it. ICRC representatives attributed it to the holidays on
Christmas in Armenia till January 12. ICRC representatives got
information from Tagiyev’s family concerning the situation he had been
captured.

According to the State Commission on Prisoners of War, Hostages and
Missing Persons, Eldar Tagiyev has been captured by Armenian
servicemen under uncertain circumstances and is being held in Armenia.