US ‘NOT TAKING’ STEPS TO RESOLVE FROZEN CONFLICTS
news.az
Nov 17 2011
Azerbaijan
News.Az interviews Lincoln Mitchell, Associate at the Harriman
Institute and Affiliate at the Arnold A. Saltzman Institute of War
and Peace Studies at Columbia University.
How would you estimate the current situation in the South Caucasus?
What are the main security challenges in the region?
The primary security threats in the region are that one or more of
the frozen conflicts could become an actual war. In Abkhazia and
South Ossetia, the possibility of war is not great, but still real.
Relations between Moscow and Tbilisi are still not good and both
governments will continue to have the need to distract populations
for poor economic times and frustration with the nature of governance.
This alone is not enough to lead to a war, but given the highly
militarized nature of the territorial lines it is always possible
that a small incident could escalate into something bigger.
Similarly, in NK heated rhetoric on both sides suggests that neither
side has ruled out further military conflict. The potential for a
conflict there to spread beyond Armenia and Azerbaijan should not be
overlooked either.
There are also a number of second tier security issues that should
not be overlooked. Increasingly authoritarian regimes in Armenia and
Azerbaijan could push citizens and political opponents to greater
political opposition which could lead to violence and destabilization.
The ongoing economic troubles in Georgia are also potential roots of
insecurity in the region.
What were the main results of the Russian-Georgian war in 2008? How
did it change the region?
The August 2008 war finalized Abkhazia and South Ossetia’s departure
from Georgia for the foreseeable future. It also underscored the limits
of both US and Russian influence in the region. The US demonstrated
that it could not come to the assistance of its client Georgia,
while Russia failed to win any support from elsewhere in the region
for its decision to recognize Abhaz and South Ossetian independence.
Are you satisfied with American policy in our region?
At this time, US policy in the South Caucasus seems to be stressing
conflict prevention. The US is not making any big steps towards
resolving any of the frozen conflicts, but instead seem focused on
reducing the chances that any of them will lead to war. The US is also
confronting the limits of its ability to impact political development
in the region. A big concern for the US is the potential evolution
of Georgia into a real US client.
Do you believe that Georgia will succeed to get back Abkhazia and
South Ossetia and what should be done for that?
If this happens, it won’t happen soon. The first thing the US should
do is to try to build relationships with civil society and other
non-governemntal actors in these places so as to weaken Russia’s grip
on Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
What can you say about Russia’s role in the South Caucasus?
Russia is in a mixed position in the region. Russia flexed its muscle
in 2008, but does not have as much to show for it as one might think.
Resistance to Russia’s influence in the region remains strong in the
west. Azerbaijan and Georgia continue to seek strong ties to the west
because of their concern about Russia.
Isn’t NATO or EU membership a best way for the regional republics to
ensure their security?
Crafting a foreign policy that charts a course between Russia and
the west is the central challenge all three of these countries face.
While getting into NATO or the EU would solve this problem, this is
at best a long way off.