MATTHEW BRYZA: PRESIDENT ALIYEV IS POPULAR BEYOND OF ANYONE ELSE
WASHINGTON, DC. May 4, 2012: Is Matthew Bryza too optimistic about
Azerbaijan? On May 2, just three days after the US Senate received
White House notification that President Obama has withdrawn the
nomination of Matthew Bryza for the US Ambassador to Azerbaijan
position, the Illinois diplomat, who moved to Turkey right after
returning from Baku, showed-up in Washington DC- based Jamestown
Foundation and criticized the Administration’s current South Caucasus
policy, TURAN’s Washington, DC correspondent Alakbar Raufoglu reports.
“I know that everybody here in the US Government thinks that we’re
focusing on the South Caucasus issues and all of our priorities,
but the countries in the region don’t feel that. They feel very much
drift”, Bryza said in front of Washington’s think-tank and diplomatic
community.
Especially, he slammed the Administration’s latest efforts on ignoring
Azerbaijan, while implementing the rapprochement policy between Turkey
and Armenia.
“This (Turkey-Armenia) normalization would be great if it’s
achievable. But it’s not achievable and plus it negatively influences
Nagorno-Karabakh peace process”, he mentioned adding, “No matter
how much we wanted Armenia-Turkey rapprochement, instead we’ve got
nothing”.
On Nagorno-Karabakh, Bryza emphasized that no peace agreement is
expected until the US government takes this process at “very senior
level”.
The Azeri government “will not launch military operations until it
fully loses its confidence to the peace process”.
In the meanwhile, he emphasized that the risks of the military conflict
are increases.
For years, he added, “we’ve talked about three senses of strategic
interests in South Caucasus: Security, energy and the internal
reforms. They all are important to be followed if the US doesn’t want
to lose this region”.
At the same time, while speaking about democracy in Azerbaijan, Mr.
Bryza mentioned that “the situation is not as bad as many things.
“But it’s certainly not so bad so to write it off”.
“There is no chance for any Arab uprisings in Azerbaijan now.
President Aliyev is popular beyond of anyone else”, he stressed.
According to Bryza, there are lots of senior people and young people
in Azerbaijan who are ready to make the system better, There are
efforts on the way”.
The current president, he adds, “intends to develop the country by
using the oil incomes”. Therefore, unlike the Arab spring countries,
youth in Azerbaijan “thinks that if they go to the streets, they
will lose everything, especially the current opportunity that the
country achieves”.
Bryza’s statement on democracy came while answering the question
of Daniel Fried, his former boss at the State Department, who is
currently leading the Obama Administration’s Guantanamo Bay policy
at the State Department. In his question, Mr. Fried mentioned the
oligarchs in Azerbaijan, asking whether the US Administration addresses
the democratic reforms in Azerbaijan.
Mr. Bryza also talked about the regional threats, mentioning the
Iranian government “up to terrible things towards Azerbaijan”. He
said, the Azeri government is “totally against the Iranian war,
it will bring a huge humanitarian and social “destroy to Azerbaijan”.
“There is a huge gap in the US Administration now regarding what is
happening between Iran and South Caucasus”, he added.
After the Jamestown event, TURAN’s Washington DC correspondent
interviewed Ambassador Bryza regarding his speech.
Question: I assume after your today’s speech, many democrats in Baku
will question whether Ambassador Bryza is trying to advocate for
Azeri government’s policy in Washington DC, or as a former senior
diplomat, is trying to pressure the Democrat Administration not to
let relationship with Azerbaijan to get out of track? Which of these
is true?
Answer: None of them. I’m an independent person. I exist on my
own right now, Im a private business person, and Im an independent
academic heading a think-tank in Tallinn, Estonia, The International
center for Defense Studies, so these sorts of events are new for me,
and it’s amazing that I can just say what I think (laugh).
So I’m saying what I think. I was very proud to develop a US policy
towards Azerbaijan that reflected our government’s views, but my views
too, I believe in them, so if my views sound similar to the US policy;
this is because I believe in them.
Question: You called on the US administration to take the Karabakh
negotiations on a very senior level. Does that mean that we should
expect meetings on the presidents level hosted by the White House,
just same as the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations?
Answer: No, not at all. I don’t think that’s realistic. I don’t
think we are ever going to get that sort of level top participation,
like President Clinton offered in the case of Middle East peace
process. I think, number one, it’s not healthy if the Minsk group
Co-Chairs has the president involved at that level, it just creates
an imbalance. And, number two, I think we are stuck in the process now
unless the two presidents of Azerbaijan and Armenia feel trust toward
each other. And I don’t believe trust will evolve organically, I think
that has to be generated somehow. And I think that’s a natural role
for the United States, and if the US doesn’t do that, Russia won’t
do that, France won’t do that, and so who else is going to do that
within the Minsk group co-chair countries?
Nobody. So I think it’s up to us to do that.
Question: Truly, why President Medvedev, or years ago then-President
Shirak can do it and president Obama can’t? Is that what you expect
from him?
Answer: I don’t believe President Obama will get involved, I don’t
anticipate that. But Secretary Clinton is ready to be involved more,
and in our bilateral diplomacy with Russia the issue of facilitating
and not manipulating Nagorno-Karabakh peace process should be
an agenda item. In other words, the profile of Nagorno-Karabakh
settlement process needs to be elevated on our diplomatic agenda,
on the level of the Secretary of State, and sometimes, the President.
Question: I want to take you back to the Congressional hearings on your
Ambassador nomination two years ago, when some here in Washington, DC
were concerned if Ambassador Bryza, being a close friend to the Azeri
government, will be ignored in Baku when it comes to addressing issues
like democracy, human rights and other problems in the country. Do
you think the Azeri government was listening to you?
Answer: I do think they did because of the initiatives that we
launched. My approach is not to lecture to them; my approach is to
try to look at the situation the way it is, to identify what the real
obstacles are, which to me the oligarchy concentration of power is,
and then figure out the realistic ways to change that situation.
It’s impossible to do by flipping a switch or releasing a statement,
it’s only possible by working day after day with people with authority
to win their trust. And to convince them that our goal is not to
overthrow the government of Azerbaijan, and to convince them that we
didn’t launch the uprisings in the broader Middle East and we don’t
want them in Azerbaijan. And also to convince them that they need,
they must move forward on these reforms, or else in the long run they
can’t succeed.
And so with that least to them is the opportunity to define success
jointly with the government of Azerbaijan through realistic, achievable
steps, and there are many ways for doing that. I started up a dialog
forum between society leaders or presidential administration, or was
about to start it and I had to go. We were working in other spheres,
attempting legal reforms; advancing electronic government to fight
corruption, new code for fighting corruption as well, competition
code to make sure economy is more open. There are many specific ways
to do it, and they are listening!
Question: It will be unfair if I don’t ask you about Ambassador
Richard Morningstar, what do you think of President Obama’s nomination?
Answer: He is fantastic; he is unbelievably the best possible choice.
He knows the country, he knows the region, he is a strategic thinker,
and he cares very much about Azerbaijan.
Question: And what are the main challenges in front of him?
Answer: You know what they are. They are the same ones I’ve been
working on, the whole reform agenda we were just talking about,
helping the government of Azerbaijan work with its allies and friends
in Turkey and Europe to finalize the gas transit through Turkey,
and help the parties figure out what the next export directions are
going to be. Also to support the Minsk Group and advance our work
in fighting proliferation, security in the Caspian Sea, sustain the
transportation from Afghanistan as well.
Question: Some argue that Morningstar is energy oriented…
Answer: Well, I was told to be energy oriented as well (Contact.az).
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