Armenia Leader: Conflicts Cannot Be Resolved By Armed Force

ARMENIA LEADER: CONFLICTS CANNOT BE RESOLVED BY ARMED FORCE

Interfax
Sept 3 2008
Russia

Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan argued that trying to resolve
conflicts in the South Caucasus by armed force is a hopeless exercise
and expressed confidence the crisis in Georgia would "have a sobering
effect on those who still entertain such hopes, strengthening their
military potential and making belligerent statements."

"Attempts to force military solutions against the will of the people in
the South Caucasus are fraught with serious military and geopolitical
consequences," the presidential press service quoted Sargsyan as saying
at a meeting in Yerevan with the secretaries of the security councils
of member countries of the Collective Security Treaty Organization.

Sargsyan also said Armenia would focus on raising the CSTO’s efficiency
when it holds the organization’s rotating chairmanship.

It’s Going To Be Tense

IT’S GOING TO BE TENSE

A1+
[12:52 pm] 04 September, 2008

Armenian national football team is going on to get ready for the
World Cup Qualifying match with Turkey due to September 6. Chief
Coach Yan Poulsen invited 25 candidates last week for the gathering,
but just now only 22 footballers are involved in the team, and 18 of
them will be engaged in the match-list and meet Turkish players.

"Turkish tournament has just started, whereas Armenian Championship
is in its decisive stage," said the assistant of the Chief Coach
of Armenian team Vardan Minasian, "Our players playing abroad for
different clubs have underwent numerous matches and haven’t got any
problems with practice. All this makes us conclude that we have a
privilege in terms of footballers’ sport state at this instance. But
we shouldn’t forget that the opponent is Bronze-medalist of Europe
Championship".

In Mr. Minasian’s view the upcoming match promises a breathtaking
football. "It’ll be tense and beautiful and winning the match or
even drawing it can be a good result for us, a good start in the
qualifying stage."

Vardan Miansyan also pointed out that compared to "Euro-2008" there
had been big changes in the national team of Turkey. "We were expecting
Turks to arrive in Yerevan with completely another staff. It was what
really happened and now we can evidence several new names among the
members of the published list. We are informed that Nihat Kahveci and
Hamid Altintop have injuries and 2 more players have also joined them
lately. Some young footballers have been invited. Anyway, Turkish
team is a better experienced team than Armenian one".

BAKU: OSCE To Hold Monitoring At Contact Front Line Of Azerbaijani A

OSCE TO HOLD MONITORING AT CONTACT FRONT LINE OF AZERBAIJANI AND ARMENIAN ARMED FORCES

Today.Az
/47396.html
Sept 4 2008
Azerbaijan

OSCE will hold a monitoring on the contact front line of Azerbaijani
and Armenian armed troops in Gapanly village of Terter on September 5,
reported the press service for the Defense Ministry of Azerbaijan.

By the information, the monitoring will be held on the basis of a
mandate of personal representative of the OSCE chairman-in-office.

The monitoring will involve field assistants of the personal
representative of the OSCE chairman-in-office Peter Key and Irchi
Aberle.

The Armenian occupied Azerbaijani lands will be represented by personal
representative of the OSCE chairman-in-office Andzhey Kaspshik and
his field assistants Antal Herdich and Vladimir Chountulov.

http://www.today.az/news/politics

Armenian, Russian Leaders Discuss Energy Cooperation

ARMENIAN, RUSSIAN LEADERS DISCUSS ENERGY COOPERATION

ARKA
Sep 3, 2008

YEREVAN, September 3. /ARKA/. During their talks, Russian and
Armenian Presidents, Dmitry Medvedev and Serge Sargsyan focused their
attention on energy cooperation as well as on new transport routes
and infrastructure development.

Sergey Prikhodko, Assistant to the RF President, reported that
the sides discussed cooperation in the energy sector and rail
transport. The sided also addressed issues of the Nagorno-Karabakh
peace process, Prikhodko said.

Earlier Armenian specialists discussed the possibility of establishing
railway communication between Iran and Armenia.

The Russian President pronounced for further Armenian-Azerbaijani
dialogue.

The sides also addressed CIS-related issues in the context of the
upcoming CIS summit.

Prikhodko said that President Medvedev will issue a number of
instructions as a result of negotiations. He pointed out that the
sides did not address the uranium issue.

Saakashvili Buried Georgia’s Image Of "Democracy Lamp"

SAAKASHVILI BURIED GEORGIA’S IMAGE OF "DEMOCRACY LAMP"

PanARMENIAN.Net
03.09.2008 17:49 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ The Georgian-Ossetian conflict showed how
tremendously ineffective the Russian war machine is, according to an
Armenian expert.

"But it also showed that Georgia doesn’t have an army, despite
up-to-date armament and long-term trainings of the personnel. Georgian
soldiers failed to defeat 350 Russian peacekeepers, 200 Ossetian
policemen and 200 servicemen," Caucasus Institute Director Alexander
Iskandaryan said during a round-table discussion today.

Russia’s will always be present in South Ossetia, according to him.

"Georgia will recover from the collapse but its image of "democracy
lamp" has been buried forever. Moreover, no Georgian leader will dare
to attempt to resolve the South Ossetian and Abkhazian conflicts by
use of force.

Persistent Inflation Pressure Leads To Yet Another Armenian Interest

PERSISTENT INFLATION PRESSURE LEADS TO YET ANOTHER ARMENIAN INTEREST RATE INCREASE
by Venla Sipila

World Market Research Centre
Global Insight
September 3, 2008

The Board of the Armenian Central Bank (CBA) in its meeting yesterday
decided to raise the banks’ refinancing rate by 25 basis points,
taking the rate to 7.75%. This was the eighth increase of a similar
magnitude in as many months. The move was taken in the wake of the
publication of August inflation figures, which had shown consumer
prices falling by 0.7% from July, but rising by an accelerating rate
of 11.5% in annual comparison (see Armenia: 1 September 2008: ). The
CBA Board noted that the strength of inflation pressures was to an
important extent determined by continued, stable increase in prices
of bread products, instead of their expected decline.

This, further, was attributed to the recent events in the region,
the CBA here referring to the security instability caused by the
military conflict between Georgia and Russia. The CBA further stated
that even if external inflation pressures continued to moderate
over last month, these tendencies where not comparably reflected in
the domestic market. Following its arguments in previous months,
the CBA noted imperfections in some domestic community markets as
the reason for this. However, the bank added that, also import
disruptions resulting from the region’s instability were partly
to blame this time. It concluded that if import obstacles prove
persistent, inflation risks grow substantial, whereas additional
inflation pressures from the demand side otherwise should not play a
role. Finally, the CBA stressed the importance of lowering inflation
expectations in order to bring inflation closer to target. Further
rate revisions will depend on regional developments and the response
of domestic commodity markets to global trends.

Significance:The further increase in the Armenian policy interest
rate was expected, as the inflation rate keeps running far above
the central bank’s target rate of 4%. The CBA has in recent years
proven fairly competent in its monetary policy, showing ability and
willingness to control inflation within the means it has. The Armenian
government has also recently pledged wide-ranging efforts to curb
rapid price rises. However, the central bank’s key tool for curbing
inflation in the still relatively undeveloped financial environment
has been letting the dram appreciate considerably in response to
strong remittance and foreign investment inflows. If import obstacles
recede, the moderation in inflation pressure from food costs should
start having an easing impact on inflation with the new crops, as the
cost of food has been a major factor recently in boosting Armenia’s
inflation also in annual terms. However, as of yet there has been
no clear indication of moderating demand-side inflation pressures,
as economic growth remains robust and fiscal spending high.

Armenian President Addresses With Congratulatory Message On Nagorno

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT ADDRESSES WITH CONGRATULATORY MESSAGE ON NAGORNO KARABAKH INDEPENDENCE DAY

ARMENPRESS
Sep 2, 2008

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 2, ARMENPRESS: Armenian President Serzh Sargsian
addressed with a congratulatory message on the occasion of Nagorno
Karabakh Independence Day. Presidential press service told Armenpress
that the message of the president particularly says, "Dear compatriots,
I congratulate you on the Day of Independence. The past 17 years
proved that the choice of Artsakh people in the created situation was
the only right way. That choice is historic for us. Today is holiday
for all of us: for those who became immortal by their bravery and
heroism for the sake of liberated and dignified homeland.

Dear people of Artsakh, You took with dignity both the trial of
war and peace and today you are devoted to the construction of your
free country and its defense. You are devoted to reform your state,
public and economic activity, to improve your life. I am sure that
with the support of Armenia and all Armenians you will solve your
current issues and confront the future challenges.

I once again congratulate you on this bright holiday and wish you
peaceful sky and firm progress."

Russia, Georgia… And Iran

RUSSIA, GEORGIA… AND IRAN
by Howard Schweber

Huffington Post
Sept 1 2008
NY

Yesterday, Dmitry Medvedev said Russia will provide military aid to
South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This is significant for several reasons,
but the most important may be that a continued Russian presence
means a continued threat to the operation of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
pipeline. Russian forces did not take over the pipeline in their
operations in Georgia, but they certainly demonstrated that the can
close it down at will and that the U.S. has no military capacity to
stop them — particularly so long as our forces are tied up in Iraq.

The obvious target of all this is Europe. Russia has established its
willingness to use its control over oil to gain leverage over European
nations, and the Europeans are very rightly afraid of the consequences
of Russian control of the pipelines in Georgia and especially the
pipeline in Ukraine. But it’s worth taking a moment to look East: what
does Russia’s presence in Georgia do to its relationship with Iran?

First, a little review is in order. First, let’s recall the U.S. moves
over the past seven years that have left Russia feeling threatened. The
Bush administration cut off participation in U.S.-Russian actions that
stretched back through the Clinton and G.H.W. Bush administrations,
abrogated the anti-ABM treaty, pushed for the expansion of NATO
right up Russia’s borders and have made noises about including
Ukraine and Georgia in the alliance, built an oil and gas pipeline
through Southern Georgia explicitly in order to ensure that it would
be outside Russia’s control, armed and trained the Georgian military
and brought the Israelis in to do the same, and reached an agreement
to station missiles and U.S. forces in Poland and Czechoslovakia on
the laughable premise that these nations need to be protected against
Iran. In the last month that pretense has been dropped completely:
Polish government representatives, in particular, are quite explicit
about their desire to have Americans standing in the way of any
Russian incursion to guarantee an American military response.

The point is that Russia is not just feeling unfriendly toward
us; Putin and Medveydev view the U.S. as something close to an
outright enemy. On August 27th Russia’s envoy to NATO stated that
U.S. assistance to Georgia would be a "declaration of war"; on August
29th Putin suggested that the U.S. had deliberately encouraged Georgia
to attack South Ossetia in order to help McCain’s presidential
campaign and that U.S. military advisors had helped the Georgian
forces during the conflict; today (Sept. 1) Russian sources are
claiming that U.S. ships carrying humanitarian aid have also been
supplying the Georgians with weapons..

Second, a quick review of the background with respect to oil and gas
pipelines. Since 2005 Russia has coveted control over the oil and
natural gas pipelines that run through Georgia, particularly since
the opening of an oil pipeline running from Azerbaijan through Georgia
and into Turkey. Control that pipeline and you control the spigot on
the flow of fuel into Armenia and points South, and into Turkey and
points West. Russia wants control over the pipelines running through
Ukraine for the same reason, which would give Russia total control
over the flow of oil and gas into Europe from the East.

But! Control over the Georgian pipelines also limits the flow
of oil from Iran West and North. In 2006, around the same time
Russia was cutting off fuel supplies to various other nations to
demonstrate its muscle, Gazprom imposed a huge price increase on
Georgia in an effort to coerce it to accept an offer to purchase the
Georgian pipelines. Georgia refused and went looking for suppliers
elsewhere. One source was Azerbeijan; the other was Iran. Russian
control over the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline gives it the ability
to limit Iran’s (and Azerbaijan’s) ability to sell its own oil and
deprives Georgia of their previous security against a Russian fuel
embargo.

All of this also provokes the U.S. and Israel, which from Russia’s
perspective is also all to the good. Which brings us to the other
news of the day: a positive flurry of reports predicting imminent
military action against Iran. The Dutch newspaper De Telegraaf reports
that Dutch military intelligence has suspended an operation aimed
at sabotaging Iran’s weapons industry based on their expectation
of a U.S. attack in the coming weeks, a story that is being pushed
by Israeli sources. Then there is a report in the Sunday Telegraph
about a proposed deal in which Russia would sell sophisticated S-300
anti-aircraft missiles to Iran. A Pentagon official is quoted as
saying "Purchase of S-300 missiles would change the game." Unnamed
U.S. intelligence "operatives" are quoted as saying that Russia
plans to use the proposed sale to create a foreign policy crisis as
a way to test the incoming administration president. In response,
the Israelis reportedly have stopped providing weapons to Georgia,
and have sent representatives to Moscow to try to persuade Russia
not to sell the missiles to Iran.

>From the Russian perspective, all of this is close to ideal: they
have everybody running scared. Having demonstrated their ability to
threaten the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, they have shown Iran that
they can cut off their land route for exports – the only route that
would be available if the Straits of Hormuz were to be closed. (From
the Russian perspective, how great would it be if the U.S. were to
shut down the Straits by a blockade? True, experts have cast doubt
on the feasibility of closing the Straits completely, but no one
really knows what would happen in the event of military action.) If
Russia is really, really lucky the U.S. could remain in an expanded
Iraq-Iran quagmire for a decade or more, absorbing the brunt of
the reactions, increasing resentments throughout the Muslim world,
ensuring a steady stream of terrorist attacks, pushing the Americans to
continue bellicose support for the Israeli Right and its expansionist
strategies — all of which makes the Russians look positively benign
by comparison. Alternatively, if the U.S., its domestic political
will exhausted, pulls out altogether, to whom can the Arab states
turn for help in containing a potentially expansionist Iran?

Or, well, what is the endgame for Iraq? Five years from now, would
an independent or quasi-independent Kurdish state be interested in
hearing from new allies? The reference to a potential Kurdish state
takes us back to the days of the Great Game. During WW II both the
USSR and UK invaded Iran militarily, followed by a treaty in 1942 that
was supposed to put an end to interference, but didn’t. The Soviets
stirred up separatists movements — notably among the Kurds — in
an attempt to destabilize the country. At the end of the war Stalin
proposed that Russia and the U.S. simply split Iran between them. We
were horrified, of course, and began our 40 years of intervention in
Iranian politics (remember the Twin Pillars of Stability back in the
1970s?) There are currently 4 million Kurds in Iran, concentrated in
the western part of the country.

So try this scenario. Israel launches preemptive strikes against
Iran with U.S. support. Iran strikes back in various ways (missiles,
terrorist operations, etc.) The U.S. moves aggressively to dislodge
the current Iranian administration by force. Joining us in our war
against terror — "we have our differences but Islamic terrorism is
a therat to us all" — Russia moves forces into northern Iran after
using its control of the Georgian pipeline to compel the Azarbaijanis
to permit them to cross their territory. One has to go pretty far
South to get to major oil fields, but even in the Northwest there is
plenty of strategically interesting territory: there is a gas pipeline
into Turkey, a refinery at Tabriz. Now declare a Kurdish puppet state,
with Russian peacekeepers in place just to be sure the Turks do not
launch aggressive military action the way those evil Georgians tried
to do way back in 2008.

No matter what happens, Russia’s establishment of a strategic presence
to the South gives it tremendous indirect leverage over the Middle
East, and the missile deal announcement suggests that they want to
continue in that direction. And what opened up the possibility for
all this mischief? Our invasion of Iraq.

Book Review: An innocent pawn abroad

The Age (Melbourne, Australia)
August 30, 2008 Saturday
First Edition

An innocent pawn abroad;
FICTION

by Peter Pierce

Stray Dog Winter
By David Francis
Allen & Unwin, $32.95.

David Francis’ second novel is a disquietingly well-crafted thriller,
writes Peter Pierce.

IN THE MOSCOW WINTER OF 1984, Russian Premier Yuri Andropov died. A
year or so earlier, the Turkish Consul-General was murdered in
Melbourne.

The connections between events so disparate are vital for the plot of
David Francis’ second novel, Stray Dog Winter.

In turn they are shadowed by cataclysms of long ago that abide in
vengeful memory, such as the killing of a million Armenians by the
Turks, and by the terrible institutions of the Soviet state that have
sustained its power: the KGB, the Lubyanka prison, the gulags. To the
latter are dispatched newly identified enemies of order – homosexuals,
or "blues". In another of Francis’ historical markers, AIDS has just
commenced its slaughter in the West.

Adventures often happen to those who least want them, such as Francis’
Darcy Bright, a young Melbourne artist and homosexual who has agreed
to the request of his half-sister Fin to meet him in Moscow – carrying
for her a money bag that he is not to open. The device is so familiar
that Francis’ initial use of it is as daring as the destructive
revelations that eventually it yields.

Francis understands how conventions can be both the bedrock of crime
fiction and frameworks within which subversion and invention can
thrive. Darcy’s journey is bound to be ruinous for some, but with Fin
"he shared a love and hate of dangerous people". An innocent abroad,
he is inveigled into a scheme of which he has neither knowledge nor
responsibility. As a consequence, his are the familiar punishments of
the man on the run: pursued, beaten, imprisoned, powerless, in fearful
flight.

We encounter him first on a train travelling from Prague to
Moscow. Without knowing it, he is under surveillance. Any sense of
freedom is already illusory. From the window of his compartment he is
afforded glimpses of the lives of strangers.

Here, portrayed with Francis’ characteristic asperity, are "A figure
trudging alone in a snow-beaded field with a scythe. An unscarved
woman behind a wooden fence shaded her face as if there was sunlight."
Unconsciously, he has conjured images of death and darkness.

Soon his companions and tormentors, usually fulfilling both roles,
will include not only his sister and her lover Jobik, but General
Sarfin, who in interrogating Darcy "towered over (him) like a fuming
building" and his son Aurelio, formerly of the Cuban Ballet and now
reluctantly about his father’s business.

The cold, dark world, menacing and ambiguous, through which Darcy is
impelled flickers with images for his painter’s and photographer’s
eyes. But to understand what they impend, who might be trusted, is
beyond him. Instead he plunges on, wearing Aurelio’s borrowed coat,
which "felt heavy, like a shawl of dread".

There are two parallel actions in which he is enmeshed. One involves
the succession to Soviet leadership of the brutal, cloddish Chernenko,
and a sting operation against his son-in-law, mounted perhaps by
"Gorbachev’s people" who would, indeed, soon instal a new regime in
the Kremlin. The other concerns those – operating within Russia – whom
the Turkish authorities wish to exterminate as Armenian terrorists.

Darcy is haplessly put to use in furthering each of these intrigues
and in observing their outcomes. Nowhere is Francis’ touch surer than
in handling the grand-scale events that swallow up plotters and the
innocent alike.

However, he also plays strict attention to the cadences of his prose,
as illustrated by sustained alliterative play with key words. For Fin,
Darcy is both "her pigeon and her painter". His fate is
persecution. His role in politics is to pimp for sinister
blackmailers.

Stray Dog Winter is such a disquietingly well-crafted thriller that
its domestic dimension might be overshadowed. Yet the portrait, in
jagged flashbacks, of the collapsing fabric of the marriage of Darcy’s
parents, in what resemble a succession of scenes from a silent movie,
is indicative of the author’s range and authority.

Francis, lawyer and former Olympic equestrian, now based in Los
Angeles, offers the demanding gift of his fiction to his own country,
and beyond.

David Francis is a guest at the Melbourne Writers Festival, which is
sponsored by The Age.

Peter Pierce is chairman of the fiction judges for the Prime
Minister’s literary prizes, the winners of which will be announced on
September 12.

www.mwf.com.au

BAKU: Azerbaijan Does Not Think Armenia Would Recognize The Independ

AZERBAIJAN DOES NOT THINK ARMENIA WOULD RECOGNIZE THE INDEPENDENCE OF NAGORNO-KARABAKH BASED ON THE EXAMPLE WITH SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA

Azerbaijan Business Center
Aug 28 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku, Fineko/abc.az. The conference of the Center of Politic
Innovations and Technologies devoted to the Situation around Regulation
of Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict Occurred after Russia Recognized the
Independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia was held today in Baku.

The Center’s Head Mubariz Ahmadoglu said as we watched the situation
around South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Armenians want to show that the
solution of South Ossetia and Abkhazia fully depends on them, but
that is not true.

"Armenians would like to create a similar model for Nagorno-Karabakh,
but against the background of South Ossetia and Abkhazia they will not
declare the independence of Karabakh. The key country for solution of
the -Karabakh conflict is Turkey. Armenia needs either to restore the
direct relations with Russia that is possible only through Azerbaijan
provided that Nagorno-Karabakh returns, or to open the borders with
Turkey that also requires to return the occupied lands as Turkey
would demand that first of all," M.Ahmadoglu said.