Author: Jirair Kafian

Armenian, Russian speakers stress need to step up cooperation
Arminfo, Yerevan
12 Apr 05
MOSCOW
The speaker of the Armenian National Assembly, Artur Bagdasaryan, met
the speaker of the Russian State Duma, Boris Gryzlov, in Moscow today.
Gryzlov noted the need for closer economic cooperation. The Duma
speaker stressed the need to pay attention to cooperation in the
sphere of education and increasing the number of students from Armenia
in Russian universities.
Bagdasaryan spoke about the need to pay attention to the work of the
five enterprises handed over to Russia in return for the debt,
especially to making the work of these enterprises more effective. The
Armenian speaker expressed his desire to speed up the work of
interparliamentary commissions and cooperation in the sphere of
science and education.
After the meeting, the speakers of the two countries’ parliaments will
visit a photo exhibition dedicated to 90th anniversary of the Armenian
genocide in Ottoman Turkey at the Russian State Duma.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

PanArmenian News
March 28 2005
PROCESSION DEDICATED TO ARMENIAN GENOCIDE 90-TH ANNIVERSARY TO BE
HELD IN US
28.03.2005 05:31
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ A procession with the slogan `In the Name of
Humanity’ will march from Fresno to Sacramento on the occasion of the
90-th anniversary of the Armenian Genocide. The aim of the event is
to remind about the Armenian Genocide and other crimes against
humanity, Armenpress agency reports. Several dozens of Armenians will
march 350 kilometers. After a 19-day journey they are going to
express gratitude to the legislators of those US states, which
officially recognized the Armenian Genocide. On this occasion a
website was created and the great number of visitors was a surprise
for the action initiators. The Armenian communities of Central
California, Washington, New York and Boston declared of the financial
and moral support to the procession participants. The marchers will
reach Sacramento April 21.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Georgian governor vows to meet “fair” demands of ethnic Armenians
Kavkasia-Press news agency
23 Mar 05
Tbilisi, 23 March: The Georgian president’s representative in the
Samtskhe-Javakheti province, Goga Khachidze, yesterday held a meeting
with representatives of public organizations of the [predominantly
Armenian-populated] Akhalkalaki and Ninotsminda Districts and activists
of the 13 March rally staged in Akhalkalaki [in protest at the planned
closure of the Russian military base in the area]. The meeting was
also attended by MP for Akhalkalaki District, Hamlet Movsesyan,
and the head of the Akhalkalaki administration, Artur Yeremyan.
At the meeting, the local activists raised several pressing issues.
The demanded that Khachidze address the issues of reopening a passport
office (which has been relocated to Akhaltsikhe) and teaching Armenian
history in Armenian schools. They also said that locals should
be able to communicate with authorities in the Armenian language,
stressed the need for more democratic election of local government
bodies, and requested the establishment of a customs checkpoint in
[the village of] Zhdanovka near the Georgian-Armenian border. At the
moment, customs clearance of goods imported in Samtskhe-Javakheti from
Armenia can be performed only in the town of Akhaltsikhe which is 100
kilometres away from the border. In addition, the participants said
that the Akhaltsikhe-Akhalkalaki-Ninotsminda-Zhdanovka road urgently
needed repair.
Goga Khachidze vowed to resolve the issue of reopening the passport
office in Akhalkalaki by 28 March. He also promised that the Georgian
Education Ministry would approve a programme of teaching Armenian
history in Armenian schools. As regards local government issues, MP
Hamlet Movsesyan said that a new local government law to be adopted
by the parliament would be more democratic.
The president’s representative was not ready to give complete answers
to the rest of the questions. The sides agreed to recommend to the
[central] authorities to set up an expert group which would draw up
proposals aimed at resolving the current problems.
Goga Khachidze told journalists that all demands raised at the meeting
were fair and promised to do his best to resolve the problems.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Special troops to ease ethnic tension in southern Georgia – minister
Rustavi-2 TV, Tbilisi
20 Mar 05
[Presenter] The interior minister [Vano Merabishvili] is probably one
of those in the government who is well aware of what is going on in
that region [reference to the previous report about ethnic tension
in Tsalka District in southern Georgia]. He is from that region,
and we can now talk to him live. Good evening.
[Merabishvili] Good evening.
[Question] Can I start by asking you to rule out the possibility that
these incidents were politically motivated? I am asking this because
in Yerevan the Dashnaktsutyun party has recently been saying that the
rights of Armenian speakers in Georgia are being violated and at the
same time the issue of [Russian] bases has been in the news.
[Merabishvili] Regarding your first point, I must say that, according
to our information, this incident [in Tsalka] is not linked to the
political situation in Armenia, although, the tense situation over the
Russian military bases, that is the tension with our other neighbour
[Russia], may be playing a certain role.
However, as was apparent from your previous report, from what
people were saying and from I personally heard there today –
[changes thought] I must say that the situation there should not be
overdramatized. There is a lack of trust between different ethnic
groups in that region, including people who settled there from other
parts of the country. This is a difficult region, in terms of climate
and social problems, and all of this makes the situation worse.
[Passage omitted]
Unfortunately, a brutal murder took place there recently. Had it
taken place in another part of Georgia, there would not have been
such an outcry. However, the situation remains tense and there is
mistrust. There is no stability yet in relations between settlers
from Svaneti and Ajaria and ethnic Greeks and Armenians. That is
precisely why we have decided to deploy a special detachment there.
I wish to explain to the public how this detachment will operate.
Since Tsalka District is very large and it is impossible to deploy a
policeman at every street corner and outside every house and to set
higher standards of law and order protection there than in the rest of
Georgia, we have decided to introduce daily patrols – at least three
times a day in every village – by special units in a [word indistinct]
vehicle. On the one hand, this will be a crime prevention measure,
and, on the other hand, it will enable citizens to tell the police
in advance about possible violent incidents. [Passage omitted]
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Zaman Online, Turkey
March 11 2005
No Foreign Interest in Official Records on Armenians
By Zaman
Published: Friday 11, 2005
zaman.com
After a decision for joint action against Armenian allegations by
Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and the Republican
People’s Party (CHP) leader Deniz Baykal, all eyes are now on what
kind of steps will be taken over the issue.
Turkey’s trump card is the historical records and documents held at
the General Directorate of State Archives of the Prime Ministry.
About 2,000 out of 300,000 documents have been opened to the public
after the completion of their classification, but no foreign
scientists have applied to examine the documents so far.
Two thousand documents at the General Directorate of State Archives
of the Prime Ministry include clear information showing that the
Armenian genocide never happened. Documents translated into Turkish
mostly from Ottoman language are published on the official Internet
site of the Directorate. It is striking that none of the documents
have yet been analyzed by foreign social scientists yet.
President of the Directorate Yusuf Sarinay announced Thursday (March
10) that Turkey has historical documents that are sufficient to
convince the world, but no foreign attention has been directed to
these. Pointing out that recent speculations do not reflect the
truth, Sarinay expressed that they have documented that Armenian
terrorist organizations killed 524,000 Turks. “Those alleging
genocide should also document where, when and by whom Armenians were
killed,” said Sarinay and explained that Britons and French had
arrested 144 Turks in 1920, but had released them through lack of
evidence. Indicating that scientists from 75 countries have applied
to the Directorate and asked for documents, Sarinay emphasized that
no documents were demanded about Armenian issue. Sarinay also
stressed that there are researchers on the Armenian issue at every
university in Turkey, but that foreign scientists do not study this
issue. He interpreted this situation as a manifestation that, “They
don’t want to be faced with historical realities.”
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Fire breaks out at Russian military base in Armenia
A1+ web site
10 Mar 05
The emergencies department of Shirak Region has reported that a fire
broke out at the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia on 9 March.
Firemen managed to extinguish the fire which covered about 160 sq.m.
An official’s office was burnt out. The Tsayg TV company has
reported that there are no casualties. The causes of the fire are
being clarified.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ASBAREZ ONLINE
TOP STORIES
03/03/2005
TO ACCESS PREVIOUS ASBAREZ ONLINE EDITIONS PLEASE VISIT OUR
WEBSITE AT <;HTTP:// 1) Euro-Armenian Federation Applauds Courage of EU-Turkey Delegation Vice President 2) Azeri FM and OSCE Representatives Meet, Await Oskanian Recovery 3) CIS Head in Armenia 4) Fierce Critic of Azeri Government Gunned Down, Opposition Rises to Occasion 5) Minaskanian to Perform at Benefit Concert at UCLA 1) Euro-Armenian Federation Applauds Courage of EU-Turkey delegation Vice President BRUSSELS--Recent statements by the vice president of the European Union-Turkey Inter Parliamentary Delegation Jacques Toubon, provoked rage among Turkish officials participating in the meeting, particularly Sukru Elekdag (CHP- Kemalist Party) who served as the former ambassador to the United States, and Oguz Demiralp, Turkey's permanent representative to the European Union. Toubon (PPE, France) raised the "unquestionable reality" of the Armenian genocide during the 53rd meeting of the body, telling the Turkish delegates that the recognition of the Armenian genocide constituted an "important element for Europe" and of its "common values." "We welcome the courage and the perseverance of Jacques Toubon who was not influenced by the usual excessive and high bidding methods of the Turkish deputies," declared Hilda Tchoboian, president of the Euro-Armenian Federation. `As long as the Turkish State uses threatens Europe, and preaches fear to its public, it proves that Turkey is not European," Tchoboian. Toubon also highlighted the numerous recognitions of the genocide by member countries of the European Union, the most recent being by the Netherlands, which took place on December 21, 2004, just after the European Summit in Brussels. He stressed that the European Parliament, since 1987, had on numerous occasions, recognized the reality of the Genocide and, has since, continually asked Turkey to do the same. He explained that "by refusing to ratify the Treaty of Sevres of 1920, Turkey did not want to recognize this genocide," which could be explained in the political context of that time, but "90 years later, Turkey must change," and adopt European values, while recognizing this historic reality. The Turkish press, spearheaded by the Turkish Daily News, immediately distorted Toubon's remarks, alleging that he had asked Turkey to ratify the Treaty of Sevres. This treaty, signed notably by the first Armenian Republic and by the Ottoman Empire (as well as UK, France, Italy, Belgium, Poland, Czechoslovakia, now members of EU) constituted the reparation for the wrongs of the genocide but was never ratified by Ankara, while the later Treaty of Lausanne, eluded the question. 2) Azeri FM and OSCE Representatives Meet, Await Oskanian Recovery PRAGUE (Combined Sources)--According to Azerbaijan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov met, in Prague, with the co-Chairs of the OSCE Minsk Group and the Head of the organization's mission that recently visited regions around Mountainous Karabagh Republic. Although Mammadyarov and Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian were scheduled to meet in Prague on Wednesday, their talks were postponed by at least one week because of Oskanian's continuing illness. A Ministry spokesman revealed that Oskanian is under medical care and the concrete date of the meeting depends on the improvement of his health. 3) CIS Head in Armenia YEREVAN (Combined Sources)--CIS Executive Committee chairman Vladimir Rushailo, met Armenian leaders on Thursday for talks on CIS reforms and measures to increase the effectiveness of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). Though economic cooperation is one of CIS's priorities, Rushailo revealed that business resources are not fully utilized, and proposed the creation of business centers throughout CIS countries. He commended Armenia for its outstanding exposition at the All-Russia Exhibition Center, saying that it is one of the best. "Despite objective and subjective difficulties, cooperation between CIS countries, primarily economic, humanitarian, and the joint fight against crime, as well as security, is developing effectively," President Robert Kocharian told Rushailo, but stressed the necessity to increase CIS activity. The CIS head took time to place a wreath at the memorial to the victims of the Armenian genocide in Ottoman Turkey. "Each people has sacred places. This Memorial is a sacred for the Armenian people and I think it my duty to visit it when I am in Yerevan," Rushailo said during his fifth visit to the Memorial. 4) Fierce Critic of Azeri Government Gunned Down, Opposition Rises to Occasion US urges Azerbaijan to do utmost in investigating murder to bring killers to justice BAKU (Reuters)--Azeri President Ilham Aliyev warned opponents on Thursday to refrain from turning the funeral of a murdered journalist and fierce government critic into a public protest against his rule. Elmar Huseinov, 38, was shot dead on Wednesday by gunmen on the stairway of his apartment bloc. He was the editor-in-chief of Monitor magazine and a staunch critic of the government. Leaders of Azerbaijan's fractured opposition vowed to turn Friday's funeral into a show of unity and public discontent with the government. "We will organize the funeral in a way that will show the popular hatred of the regime," said Ali Kerimli, the head of the key National Front opposition party. "The opposition will unite in removing this regime in a peaceful way." Aliyev, in televised comments after an emergency meeting of his Security Council, said that Huseinov's murder served the interests of those who want to destabilize the country. "The tragedy for [Huseinov's] family can become an instrument in certain hands," he said. "This cannot be allowed." "We should not make a political campaign out of this crime. We will not allow this," Aliyev added. "All political forces should behave with patience and not break the law and not use this killing to advance their own ambitions." Azerbaijan became the former Soviet Union's first dynasty when Aliyev succeeded his iron-fisted father in 2003 as leader of the mainly Muslim state of 8 million people. His election, criticized by observers as falling short of international standards, was greeted with protests in the capital in which two people were killed and scores injured. More than 100 people were arrested. Most have since been released but several opposition leaders were handed jail terms. The European Union said this month there were "extensive, credible, allegations" of torture in the country's jails. Huseinov's magazine has been closed several times and fined for critical articles about leading politicians and businessmen. The murdered journalist had spent six months in jail for his opposition activities. NO REVOLUTION In a clear reference to demands by opposition leaders and Huseinov's family, Aliyev said he was ready to let foreign experts join the investigation. The US embassy in Baku urged the Azeri government to do everything possible to investigate the murder. "The US embassy urges the Azerbaijani government to do everything possible to investigate Elmar Huseynov's murder fully and to bring his killer or killers to justice," the US embassy said in a faxed statement. "Elmar Huseinov's death is a great loss to the ongoing development of democracy and press freedom in Azerbaijan," an embassy statement said. Azeri opposition plans reflected growing popular unrest in some ex-Soviet states. There has been an upsurge in street protests even in Russia, most of them over social reforms. In just over a year, new governments have come to power in Georgia and Ukraine on the back of 'people power' revolutions. That has triggered speculation that the position of other leaders in a region stretching from the edge of the European Union to central Asia might be shaky. But Azeri officials say Aliyev's popularity and the memory of the political turmoil in Azerbaijan which almost turned into civil war in 1993 leave no chance for a revolution. "People will not be so naive as to entrust their fate to those would bring them to the edge of the abyss once again," presidential chief of staff Ramiz Mehtiyev said last month. 5) Minaskanian to Perform at Benefit Concert at UCLA LOS ANGELES--Raphael Minaskanian will perform a benefit piano recital featuring works by Bach, Beethoven, Chopin, and Melik-Aslanian. The event, sponsored by RAA/USA (Research on Armenian Architecture) in support of scholarships for CASPS (The Committee for Armenian Students in Public Schools), will take place at UCLA's Schoenberg Hall, on Sunday, March 13 at 3 p.m. Born in Tehran in a music loving family, Minaskanian began his musical studies at the age of six. He made his first stage appearance at the age of ten and shortly after, performed Iran's first televised classical piano recital. Studying under the distinguished teacher and composer Emanuel Melik-Aslanian, he honed his technical skills, making frequent stage and television appearances. After graduation from high school, he came to the United States with the goal of studying medicine, but it was Aube Tzerko, Professor of music at UCLA who encouraged him to devote himself to music. Thereafter, he studied with internationally known master teachers including Aube Tzerko in Los Angeles, Karl Ulrich Schnabel in Italy, and Ilona Kabos in London and at the Juilliard School of Music in New York. Minaskanian's London debut in the Purcell Room of Royal Festival Hall won him the acclaim of critics including that of the famed Eric Warr, who described the performance as a "most promising debut," and his artistic ability and technique as "mature" and filled with "excitement, brilliance, and unfailing clarity." Returning to Iran, Raphael was invited by the renowned Soviet Armenian composer and pianist Arno Babajanian, to share the stage with him, in a most memorable musical event, for the very first public performance of his Rhapsody for Two Pianos, in Tehran. Over the past two decades, Raphael has continued to teach and perform, making frequent solo, chamber, and orchestral appearances. On the occasion of Aram Khachaturian's 100th birthday festivities, he was a soloist in several events with the Armenian String Virtuosi under the internationally recognized conductor Loris Tjeknavorian. In addition to his busy stage and teaching schedule, Raphael is involved with community work, and regularly shares his art to help raise funds for humanitarian and educational causes. He recently honored the memory of his beloved teacher and mentor, Melik-Aslanian, with two critically acclaimed solo recitals, benefiting geriatric research and special pediatric care. CASPS was created in the summer of 1994 by a group of concerned educators and citizen leaders with the goal to lay the foundation of a grass roots organization that would address the social and educational needs of immigrant children in public schools. Their mandate was to find solutions by collaborating with school districts and administrators and by directly working with students and parents. Positive feedback from schools and families and the growing demand for intervention by the community, provided the impetus for expansion into case management services, academic counseling and group therapy, staff development workshops for teachers, and a special effective parenting program available in Armenian, English, and Spanish. To date, CASPS has served over 3000 children and parents in all ethnic groups. Tickets ranging from $100, $40, $30, to $15 for students can be purchased at the following: Call UCLA at (310) 825-2101 or <;; Ticketmaster (213)365-3500 or <;; Call CASPS at (818) 222-7170 All subscription inquiries and changes must be made through the proper carrier and not Asbarez Online. ASBAREZ ONLINE does not transmit address changes and subscription requests. (c) 2005 ASBAREZ ONLINE. All Rights Reserved. ASBAREZ provides this news service to ARMENIAN NEWS NETWORK members for academic research or personal use only and may not be reproduced in or through mass media outlets. From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

WEATHER IN KARABAKH FORECASTED IN ARMENIA
Azat Artsakh – Nagorno Karabakh Republic (NKR)
09 Feb 05
At the NKR Hydro-Meteorological Service we were told that in comparison
to the previous years this winter was dryer and warmer. Precipitation
in January (20 mm) was almost equal to the standard (21 mm). But the
month of February which was milder in the previous years this time
began with frost and abundant snow. In the first week of February the
amount of snow totaled 7-9 mm which exceeded the normal amount by 1-2
mm. The director of the service Razmik Karapetian said, the weather in
Karabakh (more exactly Stepanakert because the communication with the
regions is not good and the service receives weather forecast monthly)
is forecasted in the Republic of Armenia. The service provides
information about the weather in Karabakh to the Meteorological
Service of Armenia for five times daily and receives the forecast
for two-three days. The NKR service does not have resources for
weather forecasting. The building and equipment are old and worn
out, which makes the work impossible. R. Karapetian said that the RA
Hydro-Meteorological Service had worked out a program of development
and extended it to the government two years ago.
SRBUHI VANIAN.
09-02-2005
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

President receives French Senator
Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Feb 8 2005
Baku, February 7, AssA-Irada — President Ilham Aliyev received
French Senator Emerie de Montesque on Monday.
Aliyev expressed his satisfaction with the rapidly developing bilateral
ties in different spheres and stressed the active involvement of French
companies in several energy projects implemented in Azerbaijan. The
President also elaborated on the visit by the OSCE fact-finding mission
to the occupied Azerbaijani regions in order to hold monitoring on
the settlement of Armenians there. He underlined that France, as a
co-chair of the OSCE Minsk Group, is playing an important role in
the Upper Garabagh conflict settlement.
Montesque, in turn, said that multi-faceted relations between
Azerbaijan and France are developing rapidly, pointing out that
President Aliyev’s meetings held during his visit to France were
very fruitful.*
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

–Boundary_(ID_fV9PW9LPau7LBK1hxtXVIg)
Content-typ e: message/rfc822
From: Vladimir Socor
Subject: The Eurasia Daily Monitor – 01/20/2005
The Jamestown Foundation
Thursday, January 20, 2005 — Volume 2, Issue 14
The Eurasia Daily Monitor
IN THIS ISSUE:
*Uzbeks need reassurance of national military preparation
*Yukos predicament affecting Lithuania
*Tbilisi proposes new autonomy for Abkhazia within Georgian federation
*Is Moscow planning to influence Azerbaijan ‘s coming elections?
————————————————————————
KARIMOV TELLS ARMY TO PREPARE FOR PRE-EMPTIVE CAPABILITIES
President Islam Karimov, delivering a key speech on the eve of Army
Day in Uzbekistan , declared that the Uzbek army must be prepared to
launch pre-emptive strikes against international terrorists and the
centers that direct them. Alluding to the attacks within Uzbekistan in
2004, Karimov used the opportunity of addressing the military to focus
on the country’s security threats and pointedly raised the prospect of
taking pre-emptive action (Uzbek Television First Channel, January
13).
President Islam Karimov, delivering a key speech on the eve of Army
Day in Uzbekistan , declared that the Uzbek army must be prepared to
launch pre-emptive strikes against international terrorists and the
centers that direct them. Alluding to the attacks within Uzbekistan in
2004, Karimov used the opportunity of addressing the military to focus
on the country’s security threats and pointedly raised the prospect of
taking pre-emptive action . Yet underlying Karimov’s public stance on
the issue of using force against Tashkent ‘s radical adversaries are
attempts to talk up military and intelligence capabilities to detect
and carry out such operations. Moreover, growing unease over the
rivalry of the United States and Russia in the region facilitates a
political imperative to convince a domestic audience that he can
adequately deal with the terrorist threat.
First, Karimov has been regarded by Washington as a stalwart supporter
of U.S. deployment into Central Asia in the aftermath of 9/11. He sees
the potential rivalry between these powers as a negative factor in the
region, highlighting the existence of American and Russian military
deployments in Kyrgyzstan , within 30 kilometers of each other, as
“unnatural.” Conscious of the controversy surrounding the
U.S. military presence in Uzbekistan, vehemently opposed as a
long-term option by Moscow, the Uzbek leader believes the
U.S. military will leave after Afghanistan has stabilized; leaving
open the thorny question of future U.S. Air Force basing
rights. Karimov told Nezavisimaya gazeta, “Regrettably, under the
guise of fighting international terrorism, the main geostrategic
players in the world are engaged in a struggle for influence in
Central Asia , an all-important part of the world. As a consequence,
the true fight against terrorism may find itself outside the framework
of real processes” (Interfax, Moscow , January 14). Such publicly
voiced suspicion about whether Washington and Moscow prefer to pursue
self-interests rather than engage in genuine efforts to enhance
regional security serve to convince Karimov that Uzbekistan must seek
security independently, while continuing to receive international
assistance from these powers.
Next, raising the prospect of an Uzbek army tasked with such
pre-emptive missions entails assessing the current military
capabilities to execute such plans. One indication of improvements in
the course of continued military reform has appeared in the army’s
rations. The outdated Soviet rations, introduced in the early 1980s
and offering only low nutritional value, have given way to the
appearance of elements of the national cuisine, meat, vegetables,
fruit juices, milk, honey, and vitamin supplements; all geared towards
the good health of military personnel and thus raising morale and
combat capabilities (Uzbek Television First Channel, January
9). Uzbekistan ‘s Defense Minister, Qodir Gulomov, inspected the
Tashkent Higher Combined-Arms Command School on January 1 specifically
to oversee the implementation of these rations plans. Though such
alterations are evidently long overdue and a clear improvement in the
lifestyle of the ordinary soldier, Uzbekistan suffers from other
problems associated with a Soviet legacy force; low-technology
equipment, lack of adequate intelligence assets needed to fix and
locate enemy targets, and Special Forces units resembling more closely
Western-style infantry units. In short, there is a long way to go in
Uzbekistan ‘s efforts to develop armed forces capable of meeting the
challenges of responding to the threats posed by international
terrorism.
There is no evidence to suggest that the Uzbek authorities had any
real understanding of exactly who was responsible for the attacks in
Tashkent in 2004, let alone being able to discover the intentions of
those responsible beforehand. Instead, the familiar suspect groups,
including Hizb-ut-Tahrir came under official scrutiny, and it is
possible that the Uzbek army, were it to be used in a pre-emptive
manner, would attack political targets instead of identifying actual
terrorists. In simple terms the army and intelligence services do not
currently posses the capability to act pre-emptively against
terrorists with any degree of precision. It is in this sense that
Karimov’s adoption of the language of pre-emption marks a dangerous
moment in the development of counter-terrorist policies in Central
Asia .
Karimov’s adoption of the language of pre-emption can clearly unsettle
his immediate neighbors, who are entitled to ask where these centers
of terrorism are located and on whose territory. Yet, the successful
development of such military capabilities seems inextricably linked to
pursuing closer relations with Western militaries and governments able
to plug the technology gaps in the Uzbek military. However, echoing
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s recent talk about pre-emptive
strikes against terrorists, Karimov may have calibrated his remarks to
a domestic audience and more significantly towards the armed forces
themselves. The population needs reassurance that there are options at
Karimov’s disposal that can offer a level of security from future acts
of terrorism not guaranteed by the U.S. military presence within the
country. Genuine pre-emption, aimed against genuine terrorist targets,
does not equate with Karimov’s understanding of what is politically
expedient.

–Roger N. McDermott
LITHUANIA BRACES FOR RUSSIAN MOVE ON MAZEIKIAI OIL COMPLEX
The Russian government’s ongoing seizure of the private Yukos oil
company threatens to extend into Lithuania . There, a Yukos subsidiary
is the majority-owner and operator of the oil-processing and
oil-transport industry, Lithuania ‘s largest industrial asset. The
country seeks to prevent, or limit the adverse consequences of, a
takeover by the Russian government or government-connected companies.

President Islam Karimov, delivering a key speech on the eve of Army
Day in Uzbekistan , declared that the Uzbek army must be prepared to
launch pre-emptive strikes against international terrorists and the
centers that direct them. Alluding to the attacks within Uzbekistan in
2004, Karimov used the opportunity of addressing the military to focus
on the country’s security threats and pointedly raised the prospect of
taking pre-emptive action .

The Dutch-registered Yukos Finance holds a 53.7% stake and operating
rights in Lithuania ‘s Mazeikiu Nafta complex. This consists of the
eponymous oil refinery, a supply pipeline, the Butinge oil-loading
maritime terminal, and some distribution outlets. Yukos is the main
supplier of crude oil from its Russian extractive operations to the
Lithuanian refinery and terminal. The Lithuanian government holds a
40.66% stake in the complex.
Mazeikiai is the only refinery in the three Baltic states , and the
only major non-Russian refinery in the eastern Baltic basin. It
processed almost 9 million tons of crude oil in 2004, up 21% on 2003,
earning record profits of more than $200 million (by GAAP criteria) in
2004. The Butinge terminal exported more than 7 million tons of crude
oil in 2004 (almost the same amount as in 2003 when the rival Primorsk
terminal became operational in Russia ).
Yukos acquired the majority stake and operating rights in 2002. Within
one year it upgraded the refinery’s equipment and product quality,
enabling it to meet European Union standards and compete in EU
markets. It also expanded the operation of the maritime terminal,
originally built by the American company Williams International in the
late 1990s. The Butinge terminal possesses both export and import
capability, thus giving Lithuania the option to import North Sea or
other non-Russian oil, as a hedge against possible disruptions in
Russian supply.
Yukos came to Lithuania during the heyday of the company’s overall
performance as a model for Russia ‘s energy industry. The privately
owned Yukos rescued Mazeikiai from the stranglehold of the Russian
government-connected company Lukoil. Using its government-awarded
position as coordinator of Russian oil supplies to Lithuania , Lukoil
reduced those supplies to a trickle, pushing Mazeikiai toward
bankruptcy, in order to force Williams out and acquire the majority
stake at a fraction of its value. It was at that point that Lithuania
made the agreement with the privately owned Yukos, which then turned
Mazeikiai into a thriving enterprise as well as top taxpayer to the
country’s budget. Yukos guaranteed stable supplies of crude oil — the
key to that success.
The destruction of Yukos in Russia is now forcing the Lithuanian
government to consider precautionary measures, in anticipation of
possible takeover attempts by Russian government-connected
companies. One precautionary step is to ensure a Lithuanian majority
stake and operating rights in Mazeikiai and the associated
enterprises. Under arrangements dating back to the 1999 Williams
contract, Yukos has a preemptive right to increase its stake by 9.72%
to 63.4%, for a price of $75 million. Should it decline to exercise
that option — or should it be prevented by the Russian
government-organized bankruptcy — Lithuania can acquire that
additional stake, thus raising the total Lithuanian stake to 50.48%
and obtaining the operating rights.
Economics Minister Viktor Uspaskikh has initiated that move, and he
discussed it in early January in Israel with senior Yukos managers who
had found refuge in that country. According to Lithuanian press
reports, Uspaskikh did not clear this initiative with Prime Minister
Algirdas Brazauskas. The latter agrees in principle with the proposal,
on the strict condition that Lithuania should not pay for that
additional stake in cash, but rather through capitalization of
debt. Under the 1999 Williams contract, Lithuania had loaned $288
million to Mazeikiai. The $75 million price of the 9.72% stake can
come off that debt.
However, Brazauskas argues that ensuring stable supplies of crude oil
is more important than acquiring a majority stake and operating
rights. Brazauskas says that he would favor — if necessary — selling
Lithuania ‘s shares, “even at half-price,” to any [i.e., most probably
Russian] oil company that would guarantee the long-term continuity of
supplies. Ensuring that Mazeikiai operates at capacity and profitably,
without disruption of fuel supplies on the market, is the overriding
consideration.
How much longer Yukos and its Russian subsidiaries, primarily
Samaraneftegaz, may be able to continue supplying Mazeikiai with crude
oil is far from certain. Local analysts suggest that the predicament
of Yukos will open the way for an as-yet-unidentified Russian oil
company to take over a large ownership stake in Mazeikiai; and that
Lithuania should retain a substantial stake as well as bringing in a
major Western investor. Such a three-sided arrangement could guarantee
crude oil supplies, ensure product access to markets, and avoid any
disproportionate Russian influence.
(BNS, ELTA, delfi.lt, January 10-18).
–Vladimir Socor
WILL ASYMMETRICAL FEDERALISM WORK FOR ABKHAZIA?
The Georgian government has crafted a new framework to facilitate the
reintegration of Abkhazia and South Ossetia into the Georgian state. A
special blueprint drafted by the National Security Council reportedly
proposes an asymmetric federation with an unprecedented degree of
sovereignty for Abkhazia.
Giorgi Khaindrava, Georgian State Minister for Conflict Resolution,
said on January 3 that the government is developing a new statement on
the status for breakaway Abkhazia and South Ossetia . He said that
that the section regarding Abkhazia is actually based on an existing
concept. Prior to the Rose Revolution, five liberal Georgian experts
had developed a model at the initiative of several members of the
National Security Council and with technical support provided by
Conciliation Resources, a British NGO. The current National Security
Council planned to consider the blueprint by January 10, the deadline
that Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili had set for the Georgian
think tanks and national Security Council for elaborating a
blueprint. As predicted by many think tanks, the time allotted was not
sufficient to work out a sound, mutually acceptable document (Imedi
TV, January 3).
The pre-2004 model creating a special status for Abkhazia within the
Georgian state first came to light last summer (24 Saati, June 30,
2004), and Khaindrava announced it would serve as his main guideline.
Kote Kublashvili, a lawyer and co-author of the project, admits that
the concept is leading Georgia toward a federal state where Abkhazia
must have all the rights of a sovereign state except of the right of
internationally recognized independence. He refers to the structures
of the United States , Spain , Germany , and Switzerland and
conclusions of foreign experts about the model, which, they argue,
would not give Abkhazia any legal leverage to secede. However,
Kublashvili allowed that Abkhazia could still violate any federal
agreement (24 Saati, January 12).
Georgian Minister of Justice Giorgi Papuashvili said, “Not everyone
will be satisfied with this blueprint.” As he explained, “Everyone
should understand that the Abkhaz have their own legitimate
interests.” Papuashvili forecast “resistance from various political
groups” but said the authorities should overcome this obstacle by
using the mandate of the people’s trust. He also implied that a
referendum might be called on the matter (24 Saati, December 29).
The comments and actions by some Georgian officials and
representatives of civil society indicate that some Georgians are
becoming less rigid in their views regarding the Abkhaz conflict.
On January 6, 16 Georgian NGOs and several individuals who have been
long engaged in “public diplomacy” with the Abkhaz sent an open letter
to Saakashvili containing four preconditions that they believe Tbilisi
must follow to regain Abkhazia. The letter called on the government to
abandon military rhetoric and recognize peaceful means as the sole
method of conflict settlement; provide an unbiased and comprehensive
assessment of the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict; treat the Abkhaz side as
an equal partner in the talks; and lift economic sanctions on
Abkhazia, including restoration of railway links and investments to
the region’s economy.
Pro-governmental and Western-leaning analysts argue that, for the sake
of reconciliation, Georgia must bow before the Abkhaz and publicly
acknowledge that the military campaign against Abkhazia in 1992 was a
grave mistake. Moreover, these analysts emphasize the absolute
necessity of recognizing the legitimacy of the Abkhazians’ right of
self-determination. “We [Georgians] have found ourselves captives of
our own truth and didn’t think about the Abkhaz truth,” one analyst
argued. These analysts advocate, apart from granting Abkhazia a high
degree of sovereignty and symbols of respect, the creation of special
economic zones in the trans-border areas of Abkhazia and Georgia under
joint Georgian-Abkhaz administration and financial support and
security guarantees from international organizations. They also
suggest supplanting Russia as mediator (24 Hours, January 12-13;
Resonance, January 12).
Abkhaz leaders have responded cautiously to the proposal. Alexander
Ankvab, the anticipated nominee as prime minister in the new Bagapsh
government, supports peace talks but is worried about the bellicose
statements that sometimes emanate from Tbilisi . “Yes, we certainly
support peace initiatives. However, we have recently been hearing
Mr. Saakashvili and his ministers make threats against us,” he said in
a phone interview with Imedi TV on January 3.
There are also reports that part of the Abkhaz establishment is ready
to make peace with the Georgians so long as the Georgian government
publicly apologizes to the Abkhaz for the 1992 military invasion
(Asaval Dasavali, January 17).
Meanwhile Tbilisi ‘s liberal model incurred sharp criticism from
Abkhaz refugee organizations at an Institute of Political Science
roundtable discussion on January 5. Malkhaz Pataraya, chair of the
public movement Dabruneba (“Return”) said, “It’s not difficult to
understand where the idea of federalization is coming from” alluding
to Russia . Some representatives of the Abkhaz government-in-exile
dismissed the model as “discriminative for Georgians” and paving the
way for a “velvet,” and this time legitimate, secession of Abkhazia.
Georgian hardliners advocate a tough policy. The editorial “What will
the President choose, ‘political fancies’ or real politics?” (24
Saati, January 11) says the peace concept ignores vital interests of
ethnic Georgians. It calls on the government to triple the Georgian
army and intelligence budgets instead of flirting with unrealistic
peace initiatives.
The newly created “Unitary Georgia” movement argues that
federalization of Georgia is a Russian scheme and “national suicide”
that will lead to the further fragmentation of the country (24 Saati,
January 11).
The Union of Georgian Veterans of the Abkhaz War said that if the
government accepts the NGO’s concept, the Union would oppose it “by
all legal means (Akhali Taoba, January 15).
The Georgian government likely prefers to remain on good terms with
both sides. Saber rattling by the hawkish Defense Minister Irakli
Okruashvili alternates with conciliatory gestures to the
separatists. An ethnic Ossetian, Alana Gagloyeva, has become
Saakashvili’s spokesperson and an ethnic Abkhaz, Leila Avidzba, has
been appointed as government spokesperson (Prime News, Rustavi-2,
January 11).
–Zaal Anjaparidze

NEW ELECTION COALITIONS IN AZERBAIJAN PROMISE HEATED PARLIAMENTARY
ELECTIONS
Two newly formed election coalitions have awakened Azerbaijan ‘s
seemingly indifferent political scene, promising heated parliamentary
elections later this year. On January 10, 26 NGOs and representatives
from various political parties formed a new election coalition,
“Solidarity and Trust.” Ilgar Gasimov, chairman of the public movement
” Alliance in the Name of Azerbaijan ” was elected head of this
alliance. Interestingly, the alliance also includes several prominent
Azerbaijani oppositionists, coalition can be portrayed as one crossing
party lines. For example, the deputy chairman of the Azerbaijan
National Independence Party, Maharram Zulfugarly, and the
editor-in-chief of the Baki Xeber newspaper and ideological secretary
of the Azerbaijan Democratic Party, Aydin Guliyev, both signed up for
the new coalition, as did the Amal intelligentsia movement (which is
closely linked to Musavat, another opposition party), the Agridag NGO,
and the Institute of Peace and Democracy (Turan News Agency, January
10).
Turan quoted Gasimov as saying that the alliance “would contest all
125 seats in the Parliament, but that he had no intentions to run for
Parliament himself.” Alliance members pledged to strive for free and
fair elections in the country and declared the alliance open to all
interested parties. “We already have many members of YAP [the ruling
New Azerbaijan Party] and opposition parties who have joined us,
especially in the rural areas,” said Gasimov.
Local media and political analysts rushed to label the new coalition
as pro-Russian. The independent daily Zerkalo, in its lead article on
January 12, described the situation as “The shadow of the Russian
eagle hanging over the Azerbaijani parliament.” Gasimov, who worked
in Russian Ministry of Justice until his retirement, is somewhat of a
“dark horse” in Azerbaijani politics. His organization has been
increasingly vocal in the past few years on the issue of Karabakh, and
it has organized numerous street rallies in Azerbaijan , Russia , and
various European countries, protesting the Armenian occupation. This
new move to strengthen his position prior to the parliamentary
elections was interpreted by some as the establishment of a new
opposition or a sign of Russia ‘s increasing influence in the
country. Zerkalo, in the same article, linked the creation of the
alliance to the recent events in Ukraine in which the political battle
between the two political forces was very much perceived as part of
the battle between the West and Russia .
Yet there are also those who scoff at a link between Gasimov and
Russia . One opposition member, who knows Gasimov very closely but
preferred to stay anonymous, told EDM that Gasimov “is a puppet in the
hands of the [Azerbaijani] authorities and that Russia will never put
its bets on him.”
Meanwhile, leaders of ADP, Musavat, and the Popular Front met on
January 12 to discuss the possibility of forming a joint coalition
prior the parliamentary elections and came out of the meeting saying,
“In principle, an agreement has been reached” (Echo, January 12). The
Azerbaijani opposition has long been known for its inability to unite,
which has caused them serious defeats in previous elections, most
lately in presidential elections in 2003. Yet, the recent success
stories from Georgia and Ukraine seem to have changed the attitude of
opposition leaders in the country. “As a result of negotiations
[between the Popular Front, Musavat, and ADP parties] it has been
agreed to consolidate the opposition and submit unified candidates”
Zerkalo quoted Ali Kerimli, chairman of the Popular Front, on January
14.
It is likely that several more coalitions, willing to run for
Parliament, will emerge in the next months. Jumshud Nuriyev, a former
member of the opposition, has also stated that in March he plans to
announce the creation of broad-based political alliance. In this
situation, the ability of the ruling party, also known for its
internal rivalries, to unite and form a common list of candidates will
matter considerably. In any case, the upcoming elections in November
promise much life in the once near-dead Azerbaijani political scene.
–Fariz Ismailzade
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From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress