What prospects for peace following Armenia’s election?

London School of Economics, UK
June 23 2021

What prospects for peace following Armenia's election? | EUROPP

Taras Kuzio
June 23rd, 2021

Armenia held a parliamentary election on 20 June. The election, which came less than a year after the country’s war with Azerbaijan, produced a victory for the Civil Contract party, led by Armenia’s Prime Minister, Nikol Pashinyan. Taras Kuzio argues that in the aftermath of the vote, there remain clear barriers to peace between the two countries.

The election on Sunday in Armenia showed that nationalist fervour remains highly charged. The vote came following the country’s military defeat in last year’s Nagorno-Karabakh war, where Azerbaijan retook seven districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and the southern part of the disputed enclave. Practically all of the 21 parties and four alliances contesting the Armenian elections placed the war and Nagorno-Karabakh at the centre of their election campaigns.

On the eve of the election, the International Crisis Group (ICG) published a worrying report on the post-war situation surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh. The ICG concluded that ‘mass displacements from Nagorno-Karabakh, the scramble by military forces to build up new frontline positions, and a looming humanitarian crisis all add up to a fragile situation’ in and around the region. The report further warned that ‘already frictions along the new front line, which lies close to civilian settlements, threaten renewed violence’.

Land mines and prisoners of war

The formerly occupied areas of Azerbaijan have been described as the most heavily mined region of the world. Until a week ago, Armenia denied it had any maps of extensive mines it had laid. But in exchange for maps of mines covering one of the seven districts, Azerbaijan released 15 Armenian prisoners of war.

The mines are preventing the return of Azerbaijan’s three quarters of a million internally displaced persons (IDPs), who were forced to leave their homes during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War in 1988-1994. The ICG reported that ‘the longer it takes for Nagorno-Karabakh residents to return home and resume some semblance of normal life, the harder it will be to jump-start future peace efforts.’

Frustration among IDPs at not being able to return home will lead to growing pressure on the Azerbaijani authorities to take firmer action. President Ilham Aliyev has already criticised Armenia for a perceived lack of reciprocity after Azerbaijan returned the bodies and remains of 1,000 Armenian soldiers. ‘But to not give us the maps of the minefields, means intentionally dooming civilians’ Aliyev said.

Armenian soldiers captured on its territory since the ceasefire are classified by Azerbaijan as ‘saboteurs’ and ‘terrorists’ rather than ‘prisoners of war.’ Armenia disagrees, and with its powerful lobbies in the US and France, the country has ensured its position has supporters in Washington and the European Parliament. Armenia claims Azerbaijan still holds as many as 200 prisoners of war, a figure which Baku disputes. Azerbaijan captured 62 Armenian soldiers in December 2020, a month after the ceasefire agreement was signed.

Since the ceasefire, seven soldiers and 15 civilians have been killed by land mines and over a hundred have been wounded. On 4 June, two journalists, Sirac Abisov (state AzTV) and Maharram Ibrahimov (AzerTag), and a local official were killed by a land mine. Another four were wounded. Continued tensions, political instability in Armenia, and the danger of mines are preventing international organisations such as the UN from delivering humanitarian assistance to the region. Currently only the International Committee of the Red Cross is on the ground.

Prospects for peace

The ICG has drawn attention to the 4,000-strong Russian peacekeeping contingent not having a clear mandate, particularly in the event of hostilities again breaking out between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Armenia is a founding member of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia supplies all of its military equipment, and Russia has two military bases on its territory. Military defeat in last year’s war has made Armenia even more reliant on Moscow and all of the political forces contesting Armenia’s elections gave their support to a strong alliance with Russia.

Russia’s peacekeeping mandate ends in 2025. All political groups in Armenia want Russian forces to remain ‘as the only guarantee of preventing massacres and the deportation of Armenians.’ ‘However, no one says how Armenia can guarantee this and what will happen if Russians leave.’ Azerbaijan is unlikely to seek a renewed mandate for Russian peacekeepers, preferring instead to replace them with peacekeepers from the UN or the OSCE.

Land mines should be at or near the top of the agenda in negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan as they are an obstacle to achieving a durable post-war settlement. If Armenia does not hand over further maps of mines it has planted, tensions will continue to simmer in the Karabakh region for years to come, preventing the demarcation and delimitation of their border and Armenia from reaping the benefits of renewed transportation links, re-opened borders, and increased trade. Renewed hostilities between Armenia and Azerbaijan remain a real possibility as long as the mine question prevents a comprehensive peace settlement.


Note: This article gives the views of the author, not the position of EUROPP – European Politics and Policy or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Council


Taras Kuzio is a Professor of Political Science at the National University of Kyiv Mohyla Academy. He is the author of Russian Nationalism and the Russian-Ukrainian War to be published by Routledge.

Film: Parajanov’s ‘Shadows of Forgotten Ancestors’ film named best of all time in the Ukrainian cinematography

Panorama, Armenia

Sergey Parajanov's  'Shadows of Forgotten Ancestors'  film has topped the list of the best Ukrainian films compiled according to results collected from international and local critics feedback.   

To note, Shadows of Forgotten Ancestors is based on the classic book by Ukrainian writer Mykhailo Kotsiubynsky. The film was Parajanov's first major work and earned him international acclaim for its rich use of costume and color. The film also features a detailed portrayal of Ukrainian Hutsul culture, showing not only the harsh Carpathian environment and brutal family rivalries, but also the various aspects of Hutsul traditions, music, costumes, and dialect.

The list published on the website of the Dovzhenko center features also 'Flights in Dreams and in Reality' directed by Ukrainian director of Armenian origin Roman Balayan. 
https://www.panorama.am/en/news/2021/06/25/Parajanov-Shadows-of-Forgotten-Ancestors/2526180

ARPA Institute interview with High-Tech Industry Minister Hayk Chobanyan

Յարգելի հայրենակիցներ եւ բարեկամներ,

Dear Friends and Compatriots,
 
Please join the upcoming ARPA Institute Discussion and interview with the Minister of High-Tech Industry of Armenia, the Honorable Hayk Chobanyan on  “Future Plans for High-Tech Industry in Armenia”.
The event will be simultaneously on ZOOM and FaceBook Live Stream. 
Please let us know if you will join us by sending back an e-mail.
Saturday, July 3, 2021 at 11:00AM, PST (EST 2:00pm, Yerevan 22:00): PLEASE SEE THE ZOOM LINK BELOW THE FLIER 
ZOOM Link and login credentials:
https://us02web.zoom.us/j/ 5388322794?pwd= MWJVSU5oTHFnWHJHclcrbDcxMXJiQT 09
Meeting ID:         538 832 2794
Password:           381750 

Or you can join via Facebook Live by clicking on the link below!
 
https://www.facebook.com/ARPAInstitute 
 
Thank you for your continued support of the ARPA Institute and we hope that you will join the webcast donate to the ARPA Institute!

Prior ARPA events videos (Just click on the title):
1. The Role of Mikoyan During the Post-Stalin Era and the Artsakh War
2The Armenian Dialect of Musaler from Proto-Indo-European to 2021
3. The Textile and Fashion Industry in Armenia

4.  “Rethinking the Economic Model of Armenia”by Vahan Zanoyan

5. How Can Education, Science & Technology in Armenia Be Modernized

Warm regards,
The ARPA Institute Board

Turkish press: ‘Turkey to take matters into own hands against terrorism’

President Tayyip Erdoğan (L) and U.S. President Joe Biden attend a bilateral meeting on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels, Belgium June 14, 2021. (REUTERS Photo)

Turkey will take matters into its own hands if it cannot receive the support it expects from its allies in the fight against terrorism, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan stated, saying that Washington will realize sooner or later its error in supporting a terrorist organization.

Speaking to members of the Turkish press in Azerbaijan’s capital Baku, Erdoğan touched on relations with the U.S. following his recent meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden on the sidelines of the NATO summit in Brussels.

Turkey conveyed its expectations on regional issues to its allies, Erdoğan said, evaluating the NATO summit.

"We have always emphasized that terrorism cannot be destroyed with the ambivalent attitude of “good terrorist, bad terrorist”. It is a historical mistake to, instead of standing next to an ally who is the target of terrorism, prefer the terrorist organizations that that ally is fighting. Those who support terrorist organizations and encourage them will sooner or later realize what a big mistake they made," Erdoğan said.

“We expect them to respect our country’s sovereign rights and security sensitivities. We want them to display solidarity, which is a necessity of the spirit of an alliance," he added.

Erdoğan, on the sidelines of the summit, also met with the presidents of Lithuania, Latvia and France and the prime ministers of the U.K., Germany, Greece, Hungary, the Netherlands and Spain.

Criticizing the continued support Washington gives to the PKK terrorist organization’s Syrian wing, the YPG, Erdoğan reminded that the terrorist group recently attacked a hospital in Syria's northern Afrin province.

“The U.S. is not able to say that the YPG/PKK bombed the hospital in Afrin,” he underlined, implying that the U.S.’ policy on Syria remains the same.

He reminded that he presented an exclusive book providing details on Turkey's counterterrorism efforts during his one-on-one meetings with country leaders at the NATO summit and said that the book was highly welcomed.

He presented the book, "Turkey's Fight Against Terrorism" – which outlines the country's efforts against the YPG/PKK, the Gülenist Terror Group (FETÖ) and Daesh – to U.S. President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

“We have once again conveyed our fight against Daesh, the PKK, YPG and FETÖ on the highest level to our interlocutors. We will continue our fight against terrorism. We do this for our country, our region, for global peace and justice. Terrorism is a universal challenge,” he stated.

“We have proven our power in Syria and Libya and will continue to do so.”

The U.S. has primarily partnered with the YPG in northeastern Syria in its fight against the Daesh terrorist group. On the other hand, Turkey strongly opposes the YPG's presence in northern Syria. Ankara has long objected to the U.S.' support for the YPG, a group that poses a threat to Turkey and that terrorizes local people, destroying their homes and forcing them to flee.

Under the pretext of fighting Daesh, the U.S. has provided military training and given truckloads of military support to the YPG, despite its NATO ally's security concerns. Underlining that one cannot support one terrorist group to defeat another, Turkey conducted its own counterterrorism operations, over the course of which it has managed to remove a significant number of terrorists from the region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is seen together with journalists in Baku, Azerbaijan, June 16, 2021 (Courtesy of the Presidency)

Ankara’s purchase of the Russian S-400 missile defense system, on the other hand, remains one of the main problems with Washington besides the fight against terrorism.

Ties between NATO allies Turkey and the U.S. were badly strained in 2019 over Ankara’s acquisition of the advanced S-400 Russian air defense system, prompting Washington to remove Turkey from its F-35 Lightning II jet program.

The U.S. argued that the system could be used by Russia to covertly obtain classified details on the Lockheed Martin F-35 jets and that it is incompatible with NATO systems. Turkey, however, insists that the S-400 would not be integrated into NATO systems and would not pose a threat to the alliance.

Washington in December decided to impose sanctions on Turkey over the purchase. It marked the first time a NATO member state has been sanctioned for buying Russian arms.

Erdoğan underlined that he told Biden that Turkey will not change its current stance. He reiterated that Turkey aimed to purchase the F-35s but that the U.S. denied it.

The U.S. should not expect Turkey to take another step forward concerning either the F-35 or S-400s because "we did our part," Erdoğan said. “We will continue to discuss all steps and issues that we can take together in the field of the defense industry.”

He also underlined that the Turkish defense industry attracts great interest from the world. “We saw interest in this issue, especially at the NATO summit," said Erdoğan.

Erdoğan also highlighted that Biden plans a visit to Turkey.

Saying that Turkey aims to pursue its relations with the U.S. in accordance with the alliance and a strategic partnership, Erdoğan said: “We have significant cooperation potential on a wide scale ranging from Syria, Libya, the fight against terrorism, energy and trade.”

“We aim to realize this potential by operating all current mechanisms between our countries.”

On potential cooperation in Afganistan, Erdoğan said that the U.S. is positive on Turkey’s role.

“Turkey is one of the leading countries that is putting up efforts for peace and stability in Afghanistan,” Erdoğan said, adding that Turkey will continue its support toward the country.

“Turkey can take on more responsibility here.”

Turkey has offered to guard and run Kabul's airport after NATO forces withdraw from Afghanistan. The airport plan may offer a rare opportunity to build goodwill and trust and could help improve ties between Ankara and the West.

Turkish officials say they made the Kabul airport proposal at a NATO meeting in May when the U.S. and its partners agreed to a plan to withdraw their forces by Sept. 11 after 20 years of backing the Afghan government in a war against the Taliban.

Turkey sent a large delegation – including its foreign, defense and interior ministers plus its intelligence chief, presidential spokesperson and communications director – to Libya ahead of the NATO summit.

Erdoğan underlined the importance of their meetings, saying that Ankara aimed to further enhance relations with the North African country.

“We had the chance to strengthen our relations and review our agreements.”

In 2019, Ankara signed a maritime delimitation agreement with the Government of National Accord (GNA) over the Eastern Mediterranean that provided a legal framework to prevent any fait accompli by regional states. The two countries also signed a military cooperation accord.

Erdoğan also touched on his visit to Azerbaijan and its recently liberated regions in Nagorno-Karabakh, pledging further cooperation with Baku on several fields.

Answering whether Russia was impeding the process of opening the Zangezur corridor, Erdoğan said that this was not the case. “On the contrary, Russia is being helpful in this regard.

“We will soon meet with Russian President Putin.”

Zangezur was part of Azerbaijan, but in the 1920s the Soviets gave the region to Armenia. After this move, Azerbaijan lost its link with Nakhchivan.

Azerbaijani projects in the Zangezur corridor will include highways and rail lines that would stretch across territories of Armenia's Syunik region.

Following the completion of the railway, Azerbaijan will be able to reach Iran, Armenia and Nakhchivan uninterruptedly by train.

He added that Russia leans toward a platform of six countries in the region for peace in the Caucasus. “We expect similarly positive answers from Georgia and Armenia.”

The President has frequently called for a six-nation platform comprising Turkey, Russia, Iran, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Armenia for permanent peace, stability and cooperation in the region.

“This corridor will bring great advantages to Armenia. Similarly, it will also open opportunities for Azerbaijan. I believe that it will contribute to agriculture in the region,” he stated.

Furthermore, speaking on the recently signed Shusha declaration, the president said that it could be expanded.

On June 15, Ankara and Baku signed a declaration “on allied relations” aimed at deepening ties in several areas of cooperation, including security during a visit to Shusha, a city that Azerbaijan recaptured from Armenian occupational forces in last autumn’s conflict.

Erdoğan, the first foreign leader to visit Shusha after it was retaken by Azerbaijan, also promised to open a Turkish consulate in the city.

Both countries also pledged "to support each other in case of threat or attack by a third country on their independence or territorial integrity."

He stated that cooperation will also continue in the field of energy. “We have cooperation with Azerbaijan, especially in the Trans Anatolian Natural Gas Pipeline (TANAP) and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP),” Erdoğan said, indicating that besides these projects, both countries “could take steps in a new process.”

Turkey and Azerbaijan might cooperate in third countries including Libya, the president pointed out.

At least 20,000 rally for Armenia opposition leader ahead of polls: Report

WION, INDIA

WION Web Team

Story highlights

On Friday evening supporters of Pashinyan's main rival Robert Kocharyan, including decorated war veterans, massed in the capital's Republic Square waving flags and chanting "Kocharyan!"

At least 20,000 supporters of Armenia's opposition candidate Robert Kocharyan rallied in his support in Armenian capital Yerevan on Friday. Armenia is to hold snap parlimentary elections this weekend.

The snap election has been called by Armenia's acting Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan to resolve political crisis that started after Armenia's disasterous war with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

Opinion polls have shown that its a neck-and-neck fight.

On Friday evening supporters of Pashinyan's main rival Robert Kocharyan, including decorated war veterans, massed in the capital's Republic Square waving flags and chanting "Kocharyan!".

This demonstration came just a day after about 20,000 people turned out to support Pashinyan.

The rally for Kocharyan, who was in power between 1998 and 2008 and counts Russian leader Vladimir Putin among his friends, was the last campaign event ahead of the snap parliamentary elections on Sunday.

Polls show Pashinyan's party neck-in-neck with  Kocharyan's electoral bloc, and political analysts say the election result is hard to predict.

Many at Friday's rally said they could no longer trust Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 on pledges to oust old elites but led the small South Caucasus country into a war with arch-enemy Azerbaijan that claimed more than 6,000 lives.

"We lived well when Kocharyan was president," said one supporter, Emma Khachaturyan, 50. She was quoted by news agency AFP.

"Pashinyan is a traitor," she added, referring to the prime minister's controversial agreement that ceded swathes of territory to Azerbaijan after the six-week conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh last year.

Mger Palyan, a 47-year-old businessman, said Kocharyan, a dollar millionaire who hails from Karabakh, understood the needs of the army.

"I was in the army when he was president. He always worked and was true to his word," Palyan said.
A poll released Friday by MPG, a polling group affiliated with Gallup International Association, showed Kocharyan's bloc leading narrowly with 28.7 percent to 25.2 percent for Pashinyan's party.

(With inputs from agencies)

Erdogan challenges Russia in Shushi

News.am, Armenia

President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to the seized Armenian city of Shushi was marked by the signing of a document which, according to the Turkish leader, is aimed at not only strengthening Turkey’s presence in the region, but also conveying a new quality to the presence

Azerbaijani presses report that President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan have signed a so-called declaration on Shushi.

“Erdogan and Aliyev have agreed over the most important issue — they have finally determined the political and legal field for qualitative transformation of the allied relations between the two states. At the same time, Aliyev and Erdogan treat the mission of the peacekeeping contingent of the Russian troops in Nagorno-Karabakh with proper attention and responsibility and clearly declare that they support Russian peacekeepers and the cooperation of the Turkish military contingent deployed in Aghdam, the second capital of Nagorno-Karabakh. Morevoer, it is the Russian-Turkish condominium that will serve as a strong foundation for the development of peaceful initiatives and future co-existence of the Azerbaijani and Armenian peoples,” haqqin.az reports.

So, Turkey has clearly declared its military presence and deployment of a military contingent in Nagorno-Karabakh. Let us remind that there were only talks about the establishment of a ceasefire monitoring center.

Artsakh 2nd President: Armenian side dodged negotiations over Nagorno-Karabakh, but didn’t explain why

News.am, Armenia

I had a feeling that the war in Nagorno-Karabakh was inevitable. This is what second President of Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh) Arkady Ter-Tadevosyan said during a regular “Lazarev Club” meeting today.

According to him, it was clear that the incumbent authorities of Armenia had, in essence, frozen the process of negotiations.

“The Armenian side dodged the negotiations and, apparently, without a clear-cut explanation about the reasons. “When the cannons talk, the diplomats must be silent”,” he emphasized.

CivilNet: Buy Armenian – An Online Marketplace for ‘Made in Armenia’ Products

CIVILNET.AM

10 Jun, 2021 09:06

Nishan and Lilit Odabashian speak to CivilNet about their new initiative, Buy Armenian. The platform is an online marketplace where people can buy exclusively ‘Made in Armenia’ products. Apparel, arts & crafts, books, food are all part of the collection. Lilit and Nishan explain what led them to kickstart this initiative, how it works and how people can get involved.

Freedom House calls on Armenian political parties to refrain from violent and hateful rhetoric during election period

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 12:28,

YEREVAN, JUNE 10, ARMENPRESS. Freedom House has expressed concerns over the outbreak of violent and hateful rhetoric used by Armenian politicians in the election period.

The organization made a statement on Facebook and also shared the statement of Armenian Ombudsman Arman Tatoyan who condemned the use of violent and hateful speech by the politicians during the pre-election campaign.

“These actions drive destructive polarization and hate speech in society as the country recovers from the Nagorno Karabakh War and prepares for historic parliamentary elections. We call on all parties to refrain from such rhetoric and adhere to democratic norms of conduct throughout the election period”, the Freedom House statement says.

 

Editing by Aneta Harutyunyan