Author: Jilavian Emma

5,407 LICENCES GRANTED BY SIMPLE PROCEDURE IN ARMENIA AS OF JANUARY 1, 2009

Noyan Tapan

Jan 21, 2009

YEREVAN, JANUARY 21, NOYAN TAPAN. The RA ministry of finance granted 78
licences by simple procedure in 2008, including 4 licences for apple
and fruit wine making; 1 veterinary licence; 28 licences for customs
intermediary activity; 20 licences for production, import or trade in
pyrotechnic products; 5 licences for production of distilled alcoholic
drinks (except for liqueurs under 220870 cipher of the classifier
"The nominal list of commodities of external economic activity"
and other alcoholic drinks under cipher 220890 that contain up to 9%
spirits) and production of ethyl spirit from fermentation substances;
7 licences for production of alcoholic drinks under cipher 2208 of
the classifier "The nominal list of commodities of external economic
activity" that are made of only fruit and berries (except grapes)
and contain 40% and over spirits; and 6 licences for trade, import,
export and transporation of cut or rough, but not set, natural diamonds
under the ciphers 710210000, 710221000, 710231000 of the classifier
"The nominal list of commodities of extetnal economic activity".

The commission giving conclusions for suspension or cancelation of
licences granted by simple procedure held 24 sittings last year,
during which 40 licences were recognized as invalid.

State duties of 643,193,130 drams (about 2 mln 75 thousand USD)
were collected from the sector in 2008.

As NT was informed by the press service of the RA ministry of finance
and economy, 5,407 licences by simple procedure were granted by
January 1, 2009.

MITQ ANALYTICAL CENTER DETECT AZERI HACKER WHO CRACKED ARMENIAN WEBSITES

PanARMENIAN.Net
22.01.2009 14:20 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Mitq analytical center has detected the Azeri hacker
who cracked Armenian websites. It’s Baku resident Bahean Akhundov
(deutsche1988, phone (050) 722 23 33, (012) 418 540, ICQ: 401147536).

"There is no doubt that hackers are sponsored by Azeri governmental
organizations, which get rid of undesirable media websites both
in Azerbaijan and Armenia," says Mitq’s statement obtained by
PanARMENIAN.Net.

Mitq calls on international organizations to stop Azeri attacks on
Armenian portals.

Meanwhile, fearing of consequences of the illegal actions by his
employees, Azeri IT Minister Ali Abbasov disowned any connection with
the hackers. "Azerbaijan abides by the International Convention to
Enhance Security from Cyber Crimes," he said.

BENITA FERRERO-WALDNER: "AZERBAIJAN AND ARMENIA CAN RESOLVE THE NAGORNO KARABAKH CONFLICT ONLY PEACEFULLY"

Azeri Press Agency
Jan 21 2009
Azerbaijan

Baku. Lachin Sultanova-APA. Azerbaijan’s Minister of Foreign Affairs
Elmar Mammadyarov and EU Commissioner for External Relations and
European Neighborhood Policy Benita Ferrero Waldner held discussions
over the Nagorno Karabakh conflict, Eastern Partnership Initiative
and Nabucco project, APA reports. Elmar Mammadyarov said at the
press conference held after one-hour meeting that he informed the EU
Commissioner about the settlement of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict
and they exchanged opinions about the European Commission’s actions
after the restoration of Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity. "We also
reviewed the priorities of the Eastern Partnership Initiative".

Ferrero-Waldner stated that Azerbaijan and Armenia could resolve
the Nagorno Karabakh conflict only peacefully. She expressed her
hopefulness for the meeting of the presidents in Davos and called on
the heads of states to find a compromise. The Commissioner said the
Eastern Partnership Program considered bilateral and multilateral
cooperation with the participant-countries. "The European Union will
sign associative agreements with six countries, which will extend the
political and economic cooperation, ease the visa procedures and make
the energy producers and consumers closer".

Ferrero-Waldner also expressed opinion about ban of foreign FM
radio broadcasting in Azerbaijan. She was informed at the meeting
with Mammadyarov that there are technical points about this issue in
the Azerbaijan’s legislation passed through the Council of Europe’s
expertise. "The Minister told me that Azerbaijan is ready for dialogue
on this issue". Ferero-Waldner said she was hopeful for positive
solution to this issue.

ARMENIAN EXPERT: ADOPTION OF RESOLUTION BY THE USA ON RECOGNITION OF ARMENIAN GENOCIDE IS QUITE REAL

ArmInfo
2009-01-21 14:11:00

ArmInfo. I think the Resolution on recognition of the Armenian Genocide
will be involved in the agenda of the US Congress during the next
few months, and the administration of the new American president
will not hamper this process, Director of the Institute of Oriental
Studies of the Armenian National Academy of Sciences, turcologist,
professor Ruben Safrastyan told journalists today.

"After election of Barack Obama as US president, recognition of the
Armenian Genocide by the Congress has become quite real, however,
the 44th president of the USA will hardly use the "genocide" term
during his traditional address to the Armenian community of the USA
on April 24. Obama will do this stemming from the interests of the
USA in the Caucasus, and the American-Turkish relations", he said.

To recall, during his election campaign, President Obama multiply
said about the necessity of recognizing the events of 1915 in Ottoman
Turkey as a genocide. B.Obama promised he will officially recognize
the Genocide in case he is elected the USA president.

On October 10, 2007, the Committee for Foreign Affairs of US Congress
House of Representatives ignored refutations of US President George
Bush and approved Resolution 106 urging to reflect the fact of the
Armenian Genocide in the foreign policy of the USA. This Resolution
is called "House Resolution" and approval of the Senate, as well as
signature of the country’s president are not required for that.

"OSCE CO-CHAIRMEN DEPRECIATE MINSK GROUP FORMAT BY THEIR POSITIVE STATEMENTS"

Panorama.am
16:48 20/01/2009

The OSCE Minsk Group co-chairmen should take a pause and not make so
regular visits to the region, as they depreciate the work they have
already done, said political expert Stepan Grigoryan the head of
"Globalization and regional cooperation analytical center".

They should also stop making positive statements, that soon the
conflict of Nagorno Karabakh will be solved, he said. "By those
statements they give hope to Azerbaijan that soon the territories
will be given back to them, and quite the opposite, Armenians hope
that NKR independence will be adopted," said S. Grigoryan.

The political expert recommended the co-chairs not to do separate
visits to the region as they give birth to doubts that they have
their separate and own interests in this issue.

ReliefWeb (press release), Switzerland
Jan 15 2009

Armenia may struggle to repopulate border areas
Source: Institute for War and Peace Reporting (IWPR)

Date: 15 Jan 2009

Former residents of war-damaged region offered compensation, but
reluctant to return because of security concerns.

By Gegham Vardanian and Gayane Mkrtchian in Yerevan, Chinari and
Nerkin Karmraghbiur (CRS No. 476, 15-Jan-09)

The Armenian government has finally stepped in to help citizens forced
out of villages by Azerbaijan’s bombing during the 1992-4 conflict to
return.

But the villagers, whose homes are close to the volatile border with
Azerbaijan, say without security the proposed package of compensation
could prove useless.

Under the scheme, owners of destroyed houses in villages like Chinari
– which is almost on the border itself – would receive 7,700 US
dollars to help them restore their homes, as well as money for tools,
transport and general expenses.

The government is confident that the almost 40 million dollars
committed to the plans will entice the villagers home, and once again
populate the semi-deserted territory.

This would be good news for Chinari, except that the two sides have
still not come to a peace settlement and the village still comes under
fire on a regular basis. Residents doubt their displaced neighbours
would come home even with the money.

"When I ask the children whether they’d like to live in another place,
they always say their village would be the best in the world, if only
there was no shooting," said Gyozal Hovakimian, teacher of the
youngest classes in the village school.

The two countries fought over the enclave of Nagorny Karabakh, which
is mainly inhabited by Armenians. The territory proclaimed itself an
independent state in 1991, but is unrecognised internationally and
only linked to the outside world via Armenia. Fourteen years after a
ceasefire was agreed, its defiance still prevents a thawing of
relations between Yerevan and Baku.

The Azerbaijan army’s positions are just on the other side of the
valley from Chinari, and its guns control 90 per cent of the
residents’ land. Just in June, a sniper killed a young man there,
prompting three more families to leave, and local officials say it has
been targeted by heavy machine guns 30 times in the last six weeks.

Hovakimian just shook her head when told about the government’s plans
to return residents to Chinari, where a third of the houses are in
ruins.

"They should come and ask us, we don’t want money. If the situation
just got a bit better, and there was no shooting, then people would
stay here. We can earn money for ourselves," she said.

Although her school has 170 pupils, half of the village’s inhabited
houses are home only to pensioners. Many young families have left for
a more secure life elsewhere, and Samvel Saghoian, the head of the
village administration, said money would not be enough to entice them
back to the half-deserted village.

With the nursery school overlooked by Azeri positions, people just do
not feel that the village is a secure place to raise children.

"People left for only one reason ` because of the shooting. They
didn’t live badly, but the children had no future," he said.

His is a viewpoint heard in villages throughout this north-eastern
part of Armenia. In Nerkin Karmraghbiur, which is around 700 metres
from the border, many houses are similarly damaged by the legacy of
artillery fire.

"In 1992, three shells hit our house at once. We could not save any of
our property, except a chair, and even that has not survived," said
Asmarik Ebijian, a former resident of the village.

She said her family had tried to repair the house, and even received
government money to help with the roof. But, in a sign of the
difficulties Armenia will face in repopulating its frontier zones, the
Ebijian family gave up the struggle six years ago and left for
Yerevan, where its members could be assured of a better life.

"My husband drives a minibus, my daughters study, and I come here for
nine days a month to look after the garden," she said.

She hoped that after her daughters get married, she and her husband
could return home and live as they did before.

"And if they help us with the repairs, then that’s even better," she
added with a smile.

But local officials said people like her may have an unrealistic view
of how easy it is to live in Nerkin Karmraghbiur, where 17 residents
were killed in the war by artillery, and 30 families abandoned their
homes.

Henrik Galstian, who teaches the village’s 136 children history, said
many of his pupils want a good education only so they can leave and
find work and security in the cities. They do not see a future for
themselves in the little village.

"Financial help is of course necessary, but the most important thing
is security and peace," he said.

The government adopted the resettlement plan in September last year,
but does not yet have the 38.52 million dollars it needs to fund
it. It is currently appealing to international donors, including the
United Nations, for help.

Some officials wonder how much of the money will actually be
needed. According to Gagik Eganian, head of the migration service, as
many as 26,000 of the refugees from the border areas may have already
left the country and are unlikely to return.

"Exactly 2,604 of the displaced people remaining in the country have
expressed a desire to return to their previous places of habitation,
if the necessary support is provided," he said.

Gayane Mkrtchian is a correspondent from the Armenianow weekly, and
Gegham Vardanian is editor of the website.

0SID/VDUX-7NBMTU?OpenDocument

OMBUDSMAN DEMANDS EXAMINATION

A1+
[07:34 pm] 15 January, 2009

As is known, the representatives of the RA Ombudsman’s Office visited
the "Nubarashen" penitentiary of the RA Ministry of Justice January
9 and met with prisoner Vardges Gaspari. The latter informed that
nearly 10 people dressed in soldier uniforms entered his cell on
December 23 at 10:30 a.m., searched the cell and then personally
searched the prisoners in the cell.

Gaspari also informed that after the searches, one of the people
approached Gaspari, smacked him and committed actions that hurt his
honor and dignity. Vardges Gaspari claims that he can show the person
who did it.

Taking this information as a basis and based on the powers reserved for
him by the 12th article of the RA law on the "Ombudsman", RA Ombudsman
Armen Harutyunyan appealed to Head of the RA Special Investigative
Service A. Mirzoyan and proposed to hold a discussion on the issues
raised, undertake measures to reveal the guilty and bring them to
justice and provide information on the results of the discussion as
soon as possible.

ARMENIA RANKS 31ST IN THE INDEX OF ECONOMIC FREEDOM

armradio.am
13.01.2009 17:59

For over a decade, The Wall Street Journal and The Heritage Foundation,
have tracked the march of economic freedom around the world with the
influential Index of Economic Freedom. This year Armenia ranked 31st
among 179 countries of the world.

The Index of Economic Freedom is built upon analysis of 10 specific
components of economic freedom, some of which are themselves composites
of additional quantifiable measures. The 10 component scores are
equally weighted and averaged to get an overall economic freedom
score for each country. These components include: business freedom,
trade freedom, fiscal freedom, government size, monetary freedom,
investment freedom, financial freedom, property rights, freedom from
corruption and labor freedom.

This year Azrmenia received 69 points out of 100 possible as compared
to 70 points in 2008. This allowed Armenia to be included in the list
of countries with moderately free economy, ranking the highest among
CIS states.

According to the results of the research, Georgia is 32nd, Azerbaijan
is 99th, Russia is 146th.

Haykakan Zhamanak , Armenia
Jan 9 2009

Even the Nagorny Karabakh republic

According to our reliable information, Bako Sahakyan, president of the
[unrecognized] Nagornyy Karabakh republic [NKR], was on an unofficial
visit to Yerevan a few days ago. He held a few meetings with
representatives of the Armenian government.

However, the visit of the NKR president was not covered at all; and
neither Armenia’s nor Nagornyy Karabakh’s relevant entities released
any official messages regarding this visit.

However, according to our information, the NKR president’s meeting
especially with Armenian Foreign Minister Edvard Nalbandyan was
tense. Obviously, Sahakyan’s visit and its being confidential are
directly linked to the NKR government’s public statements on the
Karabakh issue.

EXCLUSIVE: PUTIN’S HOUSE OF CARDS COMING DOWN
Alex Alexiev

FAMILY SECURITY MATTERS
January 10, 2009

To little notice in America, a drama is being played out in Eastern
Europe that future historians may mark as the beginning of the end
of Russia’s neo-imperialist ambitions under Vladimir Putin, as the
economic house of cards he built collapses and the tyrant himself
heads for the dustbin of history. Turning off the natural gas spigot
in the middle of a harsh winter to much of Eastern Europe that is
completely dependent on it – and has few alternative sources to heat
its schools and hospitals – is the kind of overreach that imperial
hubris often drive dictators past the tipping point and ultimately
to their downfall.

Few believe that to be the case today and indeed most enlightened
opinion in Europe seems to be playing to Putin’s tune. Thus, the
ever-eager-to-appease-Russian-misdeeds Western European elites
have fallen in line behind the Kremlin mantra that the conflict
with Ukraine is a purely commercial affair unworthy of European
involvement. Meanwhile, Moscow’s army of European lobbyists, led by
paid Gazprom lapdog and former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder,
sing the praises of ever greater European dependence on Russian energy.

Yet, Europe’s cowardice notwithstanding, it is difficult for anybody
with even a basic knowledge of the facts not to see that this time
Putin has miscalculated badly and is playing a losing hand from an
increasingly untenable position. None of this is to say that Ukraine
is totally without fault in the conflict or that we should disregard
some disturbing evidence of corruption in high places in Kiev with
respect to the gas business.

Still, Putin’s gamble has little to do with business and everything to
do with a desperate attempt to get some political mileage and perhaps
temporarily arrest Russia’s accelerating economic and political
slide. But by doing that with his favorite strong-arms methods of
economic and political blackmail, he has guaranteed that this time
his policies will backfire dramatically.

There are several facts seldom discussed in the Western media that
need to be considered before one can truly understand the nature of
the conflict.

First, to dispense with the argument that this is a purely commercial
dispute, it is worth pointing out that Russia has a sliding scale of
prices it charges for its gas to ex-Soviet republics depending on
the degree of their political sycophancy to the Kremlin. Obedient
clients, like Armenia and Belarus, are charged $110-$120 per 1,000
cubic meters, more independent countries like Georgia and Moldova pay
$270-$280, while current bête noir Ukraine is asked to pay a punitive
$500. This despite the fact that Russian natural gas – the price of
which is pegged to oil with a six-month lag – will soon be worth less
than half that even in the expensive Western European market. There
is nothing commercial about these extortionate Russian demands that
were first announced just two days before 2009 and a week before the
gas was turned off.

Secondly, Moscow’s claims that the gas stoppage aims only to punish
Kiev for its ostensible misdeeds are completely bogus. Ukraine has
by far the largest gas storage facilities in Eastern Europe going
back to Soviet times when it was the center of the gas industry
and can easily survive the cutoff for the entire winter season by
using its stored reserves. The real victims are the half a dozen
Eastern European countries that have neither alternative supplies
nor large storage facilities and are already in the midst of a dire
socio-economic emergency. The Kremlin, of course, knew that very well
and the fact that it consciously and callously caused such hardship
will not soon be forgotten.

Third, the conventional pundit wisdom that the Kremlin as the supplier
is in the driving seat in the conflict looks less wise when the
reality on the ground is considered. The fact is that Russia is almost
certainly more vulnerable than Ukraine to any prolonged stoppage of the
gas flows. Ukrainian pipelines carry 80% of Gazprom’s exports to the
West and the lion’s share of its export earnings. Even a few months
without these cash flows are likely to bring the already teetering
Russian "national champion" to its knees. Therefore, the conflict will
be settled quickly and it’s not going to be exactly on Russia’s terms.

Given that Putin was certainly aware of these problems, it is
interesting to speculate why he engaged in such a crass power play
anyway. While it is difficult to put oneself in the mind of a bully,
some have speculated that the Kremlin hoped that the artificial gas
crisis and the accompanying market instability would cause a spike
in oil prices and reverse the downtrend that’s wreaking havoc with
Russian revenues. Others have claimed – and indeed, both Putin and
Schroeder have been beating the pavement on that in the past few days
– that the crisis was engineered by the Kremlin to convince Western
Europeans to line up behind two more Gazprom-planned gas pipelines
(Nord Stream and South Stream) that bypass Ukraine, Poland and the
Baltics. Whatever the motivation, there is little evidence that any
of these purported outcomes are more likely now than before.

Perhaps Putin’s desperation could be better understood by sketching out
to what extent Russia and its oil and gas industry are in the middle
of the economic equivalent of a death spiral, with potentially dire
political consequences for the Kremlin. It was only six months ago
that Gazprom, at that time the third largest company in the world with
$350 billion capitalization, confidently forecast that it will become
the largest in the world with $1 trillion valuation by 2015. Many a
Western banker also nodded in agreement to Gazprom’s other prediction
of $250/barrel price of oil in 2009.

As Putin managed to build monetary reserves of $600 billion –
the third largest in the world – Russia did look invincible for a
time. He also bribed the Russian people into political acquiescence
by jacking up salaries and pensions 200% since 2000, even though GDP
and productivity had gone up barely a third of that.

Alas, it was but a house of cards. With no industrial production worth
mentioning, its infrastructure badly dilapidated, virtually all of its
food imported and mortality rates only found in sub-Saharan Africa,
Russia under Putin had become a classic banana republic with oil and
gas. It lived or died depending on the price of bananas over which
it had no control.

It had also instituted an economic model based on a complete
symbiosis between personalized political power and corporate
interests, which is the true mark of a fascist state, according
to Mussolini. With Putin and his puppets directly controlling all
key businesses and using mafia-like methods to eliminate potential
opponents and foreign interests it seemed to work for a time. But
it was rotten inside. Unable to build value with equity capital, the
Kremlin’s favorite state champions and corrupt tycoons depended not
only on high commodity prices but also on ever larger injections of
foreign loans even as the rights of foreign partners were brutally
limited. It was an irrational economic model bound to fail and it
did as oil prices collapsed.

Today, Gazprom, run from top to bottom by Putin’s cronies, with a
market capitalization of $85 billion (or barely a quarter of what
it was) and a debt burden of over $60 billion, is already in serious
trouble. Putin and his coterie have made a significant contribution
to its woes. According to a well-documented book by former Russian
prime-minister Boris Nemtsov and top energy expert Vladimir Milov
titled Putin and Gazprom, the Putin mafia pilfered assets worth $80
billion from the company during the 2004-2008 period.

It will get much worse. As gas prices and the company’s revenues
plummet in the next few months, it is quite conceivable that Putin’s
prize possession would shortly owe more than it’s worth and become
technically bankrupt. It is already begging the Kremlin for $5 billion
in emergency handouts and paying 500 basis points over Libor for
bridge loans to avoid default on loans coming due.

Its longer term prospects look no brighter. With current production in
decline and most of the new fields to be developed in the forbidding
and extremely expensive Arctic region, Gazprom needs a minimum
investment of $20 billion per year over the next 10 years to stave
off production collapse. With its credit-worthiness in tatters and
foreign capital now avoiding Russia like the plague, it is unlikely
to have an easy time finding it.

Nor is the oil sector in better shape. Over the past eight years,
Russian state coffers were filled by exorbitant export and extraction
taxes levied on oil producers that together amounted to more than $50
per barrel. At current market prices below $50, the oil companies
lose money on exports and are shutting down wells. With most major
oil fields well past their peak and many nearly depleted, the oil
industry needs new investment as badly as Gazprom, but is even less
likely to get it. Western oil companies and banks that were once
eager to pay any price to get into Russian oil are now wondering
how to cut their losses. In just one example, Conoco/Phillips’s 20%
stake in oil major Lukoil worth $1.3 billion only four months ago is
now worth less than half that and falling further.

All of this is, of course, very bad news for the oil and gas sector
but it is an unmitigated disaster for a government whose very economic
model is doomed if that sector does not perform. According to finance
minister Kudrin, Russia needs an oil price of $95 per barrel to avoid
an economic downturn and is facing huge budget deficits if it falls
below $70. We’re now well past these points on the way down and the
inevitable bursting of Putin’s make-believe economics bubble is taking
place in front of our eyes.

Russia’s monetary reserves are now nearly half gone as a result
of Putin’s wrong-headed policies of propping up with state funds
dysfunctional Soviet-style enterprises and corrupt oligarchs, while
bleeding billions on a weekly basis in a futile effort to avoid
a massive ruble devaluation. Worse for the Kremlin, the inevitable
political backlash to Russia’s economic meltdown that can no longer be
concealed will not be long in coming. With Russian savings currently
being wiped out by creeping devaluation, unemployment spreading
rapidly and food inflation approaching 30% outside of Moscow it is
only a question of time before people take to the streets. And this
time it would be difficult for Putin’s media to convince people that
it is all America’s fault.

Finally, to go back to Putin’s arm-twisting in Ukraine, it is virtually
certain that when all is said and done, Eastern Europe and, hopefully,
parts of Western Europe as well, would decide that continued energy
dependence on Russia is very bad for one’s economic health and engage
in a crash course of developing alternative sources. It is likely
to involve a new emphasis on nuclear energy with several reactors
already in the planning stages, clean coal power stations as well as
coal gasification and liquefaction and liquid natural gas terminals
among others.

Hopefully, the new focus will involve renewed efforts to build the
Nabucco gas pipeline that bypasses Russian territory, as well as
stopping the construction of the new Gazprom pipelines.

The United States should wholeheartedly support these policies and
while at it think of dealing with its own energy dependence.

FamilySecurityMatters.org Contributing Editor Alex Alexiev is a
contributing editor to familysecuritymatters.org and vice-president
for research at the Center for Security Policy in Wash. D.C. He is
the author of a forthcoming book on shariah finance titled Jihad on
Wall Street: Shariah Finance in the War Against America.

–Boundary_(ID_NeGEQ6pMAAxRt0QUMYlR9A)–