Author: Jilavian Emma

EN GARDE! BELIEN VS. PETERS

Pajamas Media, CA
Politics Central
Nov 28 2006

When we read Ralph Peters’ NY Post column last Sunday – The ‘Eurabia’
Myth: Muslims Take Over Europe? Sorry, There’s No Chance – we at
Pajamas Media thought Peters’ ideas were a good subject for debate.

And we could think of no one better to do it than Paul Belien of The
Brussels Journal. Belien accepted our invitation and he did such a
good job we decided his riposte would be the start of a series of
such responses on PJM. EN GARDE, Mr. Peters!

* * *

Ralph Peters’ latest book "Never Quit the Fight" proposes a map of
how America should redraw the borders in the Middle East. This enraged
many Muslims.

Perhaps, having enraged Middle East Muslims, Peters, a retired US
Army intelligence officer, thought it was about time to restore the
balance and enrage non-Muslim Europeans.

Last Sunday he published an op-ed piece in the New York Post, entitled
The ‘Eurabia’ Myth: Muslims Take Over Europe? Sorry, There’s No Chance.

Peters’ argument is that Muslim immigrants will never be able to
conquer Europe because the Europeans are "world-champion haters"
who will never let "impoverished Muslim immigrants" take over
their societies. On the contrary, Peters asserts, the "continent
that perfected genocide and ethnic cleansing" will "over-react with
stunning ferocity." Europeans, Peters reminds us, "are just better
[than Muslims] at the extermination process. […] It’s the difference
between the messy Turkish execution of the Armenian genocide and the
industrial efficiency of the Holocaust. Hey, when you love your work,
you get good at it."

Hence, "Europe’s Muslims will be lucky just to be deported," Peters
says. Fortunately for these Muslims, however, Peters is more than
willing to deploy the U.S. Army in Europe "to guarantee the safe
evacuation of Europe’s Muslims." He even invites a good number of
them to settle in America since the United States has such a good
track record with Muslim immigrants, who "have a higher income level
than our national average."

Ralph Peters’ diatribe against the Europeans reminds me of
those anti-American Europeans who accuse Americans of being the
"world-champions of genocide." To prove their point they invariably
refer to the plight of the American Indians, once the rulers from the
Redwood Forest to the New York Island, now exterminated and confined
to reservations. Though the number of people voicing such opinions is
growing in Europe I do not take their vicious arguments seriously. I
do not take Peters’ vicious anti-Europeanism seriously either, though
I have noticed that this type of American anti-Europeanism is growing
as well.

While visiting the US recently I met a conservative professor who
told me almost literally the same thing as Peters. He, too, said
that Europeans were ineradicably vicious, that hating others is in
their blood and that they can never be cured of their mass-murdering
impulse. He, too, said that, rather than taking native European
immigrants in, America should open its doors to Muslims, because
those people "can at least be respected while Europeans can only
be despised." He even added that the biggest mistake the U.S. made
during WWII was to nuke Japan instead of Europe.

I can understand why these conservatives have come to despise Europe.

They despise it because it refused to assist the U.S. in Iraq and
because it refuses to stand with Israel. They know well enough,
however, that the reason why European governments, such as that
of France, do not stand up against radical Muslim regimes in the
Middle East, such as Iran’s, is because these governments fear the
large minorities of Muslims within their own borders. In short, they
despise Europe because it has lost the will to fight for its own
survival. Nevertheless, they blame Europe for exactly the opposite
reason.

Their contempt has turned to hatred, which is understandable because
it is all too human, but it is nevertheless utterly wrong.

Those who despise Europeans for having lost their willingness to
fight back against Muslim arrogance are now accusing them of wanting
to exterminate the Muslims. Those who have come to hate the Europeans
are now saying that Europeans are "exacerbating fear and hatred."

They claim that Europeans are contemplating a second holocaust –
this time with the Muslims as their victims.

In their hatred for Europe some conservatives even seem to have begun
to embrace the Muslims. Stephens is prepared to invite the latter
to come to America, thus welcoming to the U.S. the cause of Europe’s
disease today. It is said that hatred makes people blind, and Peters’
article in America’s most conservative newspaper is the best example
of this.

As a European who loves America I belong to a minority. I edit an
online magazine The Brussels Journal which tries to rally the small
band of pro-American Europeans and warn America not to make the fatal
mistakes we have made in Europe.

I can assure you that "Eurabia" is real enough. We have received
threats from extremist muslims, we have been harassed by the
authorities. I was present when earlier this year a group of scholars
met in The Hague to discuss Eurabia. I saw how they had to do so
anonymously, under assumed names and under police protection.

Eurabia is not a myth. Eurabia is all too real.

We see how the inner cities and suburbs in various European countries
are degenerating into "no go" areas, where people get killed, where
the police no longer venture and where radical Muslims hold sway. The
French authorities have published a list of 751 "sensitive urban
areas," which are no longer under the control of the authorities and
which have become, as Daniel Pipes remarked, the "Dar al-Islam, the
place where Muslims rule." Almost 5 million people, or 8% of the French
population, live in these "sensitive urban areas." But, apparently,
there is hope, because here is Ralph Peters in The New York Post,
offering to have the U.S. intervene and evacuate the inhabitants
to America!

Americans do not realize how dramatic the situation is in Europe
today. The Europeans are running. Instead of fighting they are
leaving. They are leaving the cities for the countryside. In my
home town of Antwerp 5,000 immigrants move in every year while 4,000
Antwerpians move out. Many Dutch are leaving their highly urbanized
country for places such as rural Norway. Some are leaving Europe
altogether.

The Netherlands and Germany have more emigrants than immigrants today,
and in other countries, such as Belgium, Britain and Sweden the number
of emigrants is rising. These people are not driven by hatred, they
are driven by despair and the hope for a better future which they
realize their Eurabian home countries are no longer able to provide.

Paul Belien is editor of The Brussels Journal and an adjunct fellow
of the Hudson Institute.

eurabia_is_real_enough_unfortu.php

NCSDA TO HOLD MAIDEN MEETING IN YEREVAN

Arka News Agency, Armenia
Nov 27 2006

YEREVAN, November 27. /ARKA/. The National Council for Sustainable
Development of Armenia (NCSDA) is to hold a maiden meeting in Yerevan
before the end of 2006, stated Martina Bakhnova, an international
expert in sustainable development, "Earth Charter".

She said that the RA Government headed by Premier Andranik Margaryan
aims to revive this government body and involve NGOs in this process.

"The NCSDA’s priority task is to ensure the public’s equal involvement
in the work on this structure and the decision-making process,"
she said.

Bakhnova explained that at its maiden meeting the Council will focus
its attention on the organization of further activities. The Council
will consider the proposals made by both government representatives and
NGOs, she said. Bakhnova added that the NGOs viewpoint is of special
interest considering their deeper understanding of the problems.

The expert also pointed out that only two of the Council’s components
have been completely formed. "The 30-member Council consists of ten
Ministers, the President of the Armenian National Academy of Sciences,
as well as parliamentarians," Bakhnova said. She added that the task
of forming the NGO sector is an urgent one now.

Harmonious cooperation between the Government’s and public activities
will make the Council’s reforms more effective and create prerequisites
for effective results, he said.

The RA Premier-headed National Council for Sustainable Development was
formed on July 25, 2006. In autumn 2002, an Armenian delegation headed
by Premier Margaryan took part in the world summit of sustainable
development in Johannesburg.

Pope on a tightrope for trickiest visit yet
Protests and violence likely as Benedict XVI heads to Istanbul

Ian Traynor in Istanbul
Saturday November 25, 2006
The Guardian

St Sophia’s is a place of dizzying magnificence. One of the most sacred
sites in Christendom for the best part of a millennium, made over into the
sultans’ mosque of choice for almost 500 years, the Byzantine masterpiece today is
a museum that testifies to centuries of feuding between Christianity, Islam,
and secularism. So when Pope Benedict XVI takes to the Istanbul tourist trail
next Thursday to admire the mosaics under the soaring dome of the sixth
century basilica, it will be the most delicate moment of the most sensitive trip
the 79-year-old Bavarian has ever made.
Four days in Turkey will pitch the pontiff into the eye of the storm he
churned up in September when he linked Islam and the Prophet Muhammad with
violence and inhumanity as a force of unreason.
And the eight minutes he is to spend in the cavernous St Sophia’s on Thursday
afternoon will be watched and weighed for signals of the Vatican’s true
intent towards Turkey and, more crucially, the world’s Muslims.
Will the pontiff pray at the place the Turks call Ayasofya, that the Greeks
know as Haghia Sophia? Will he genuflect? Or quietly re-consecrate the shrine?
He is likely, say those in the know, to cross himself as he enters the
museum. The risk is that Benedict will send Turkey’s Muslims and much of the
Islamic world into paroxysms of fury if there is any perception that the Pope is
trying to re-appropriate a Christian centre that fell to the Muslims in 1453
when Byzantine Constantinople became Ottoman Istanbul.
"This is not a mosque. This is not a church. This is a museum," said an
Ayasofya official. "There can be no religious services here."
"It won’t be good if he prays here. It will offend our people," said Mehmet
Tayyar Kaya, a Turkish Muslim visiting the shrine with his wife and son. An
indication of the tension over St Sophia’s came earlier this week when a group
of young nationalists "occupied" the basilica before being dispersed by
police. "And if he crosses himself? So what," said Father Dositheos Anagnostopulos
of the Orthodox Christian patriarchate in Istanbul. "God’s temple is in
man’s heart – that’s more important than old stones and old buildings."
The St Sophia dilemma is but one illustration of the challenge facing
Benedict as he seeks in the days ahead to navigate the treacherous front line
between Christianity and Islam. An old man in a young papacy, he delivered the
most unfortunate speech of his 19 months as Pope at a Bavarian university 10
weeks ago. Willy-nilly, he nourished the hopes and prejudices of those who see
in the post-9/11 world a "clash of civilisations" between Islam and the west.
The speech was a dense theological homily on the relationship between faith
and reason. Roman Catholicism, he declared, represents a happy fusion of
Christian faith and ancient Greek rationality. By contrast, Islam, he intimated,
was a faith that was blind, devoid of reason and with a resulting tendency to
violence. In the most incendiary part of his speech, he quoted – hardly by
accident – a 14th century Byzantine emperor in this city. "Show me just what
Muhammad brought that was new and there you will find things only evil and
inhuman," the emperor said.
Outrage
In the wake of the Danish cartoons crisis, in the midst of the conflicts in
Iraq, Afghanistan and the Palestinian territories, at a time of European
handwringing over how to deal with large Muslim minorities, the Islamic world
erupted in outrage at the Pope’s "insult" to the Prophet. Turkey’s top cleric
demanded an apology. Since the September speech Benedict has repeatedly voiced
regret for any offence he caused. But he has not retracted his remarks.
The result is that as the papal entourage prepares to arrive first in Ankara
on Tuesday, before moving on to Izmir and Istanbul, the Vatican appears to be
on the defensive, while Turkey and the Islamic world are suspicious and
hostile. The banks of the Bosphorus are plastered with banners declaring: "We
don’t want the Pope in Turkey." The Turk who tried to assassinate Benedict’s
predecessor, John Paul II, in 1981, has warned from a Turkish prison cell that
Benedict’s life is in danger. Shots have been fired outside the Italian
consulate in Istanbul; a plane was hijacked in a papal protest. Tens of thousands
of anti-Pope protesters are expected to converge on an Istanbul field
tomorrow.
Gunboats
The potential for trouble is high, the security operation is immense –
gunboats on the Bosphorus, snipers galore, decoy popemobiles. The Turkish
government insists Benedict is welcome, but at one time was having trouble
fielding
high-level figures to meet him. Recep Tayyip Erdogan originally had a pressing
engagement elsewhere, but last night a government official said Turkey’s
prime minister was hoping to meet the Pope on his arrival in the country after
all.
Kemal Kerincsiz, a key organiser of the "Stop Benedict" movement, said: "The
Pope coming here is an affront to our national sovereignty. And the worst
thing is his insults about Islam and the Prophet." Mr Kerincsiz is leader of the
ultra-nationalist Lawyers’ Union which, when not trying to impede the Pope,
is campaigning to jail writers like the Nobel laureate Orhan Pamuk for
peacefully voicing their opinions about Turkey.
His office is hung with posters depicting the Pope and Bartholomew I, the
Istanbul-based Ecumenical Patriarch of 250 million Orthodox Christians
worldwide, as a double-headed serpent. "Who’s complaining about freedom of
expression
now?" he says, grinning.
But is Pope-baiting a minority sport here? While Turkey is nervous about the
visit and things could turn ugly, it is more likely that traditional Turkish
hospitality will prevail, provided Benedict is diplomatically deft enough to
keep his balance on the Turkish tightrope.
Istanbul’s 530-year-old Fatih mosque is generally seen as the national
stronghold of strict traditional Islam. The sprawling grounds of the complex
yesterday were littered with flyers summoning the faithful to tomorrow’s big
anti-Pope protest.
But several men interviewed going into Friday prayers were generous in
welcoming Benedict and keen to give him the benefit of the doubt. "I don’t agree
with all these posters," said Ali Enuk, 40. "He knows how important Muhammad is
for the Muslims and he wouldn’t insult us. He’s a great religious leader. He
should come here."
Cevat Gulumser, 23, invoked an old Turkish expression of hospitality: "We
welcome him on to our heads and eyes. I won’t be going to the protest."
The chances are that Benedict will be seeking to mend fences. But while
Muslims will be measuring his every word, the Turkish establishment is more
likely to get a polite earful when it comes to Europe and to touchy issues of
religious freedom – Vatican code for the alleged persecution of Christians in
Turkey.
Istanbul, as the former capital of Byzantium, has also been the seat of
Orthodox Christianity for 1,700 years. Bartholomew I, a 65-year-old Turkish
Greek, is the symbolic head of world Orthodoxy and fears for the future of his
church in Turkey. For Turkish nationalists, Bartholomew is a Greek agent bent on
weakening and splitting up Turkey. The Turkish government refuses to restore
an old Orthodox seminary to Bartholomew, bans the training of Orthodox
priests and refuses residence or work permits for Orthodox clergy coming into
Turkey from outside.
For Benedict and the Vatican, Christianity rather than Islam is the point of
his visit, an attempt to invigorate the "dialogue" between the main western
and eastern variants of Christianity which split in the great schism of the
11th century. There are also some 30,000 Roman Catholics in Turkey, a
congregation the Vatican claims is discriminated against. "It’s a questionof human
rights. The Pope will definitely tackle this issue in Ankara with the
government," said Father Anagnostopulos, a retired biochemist who advises Bartholomew.

Anticipating the row, Ali Bardakoglu, the government bureaucrat and Muslim
cleric who oversees the 100,000 imams and other employees in Turkey’s mosques,
told Reuters: "If the Pope says Christians in Turkey are mistreated, I will
tell him that he has been seriously misinformed." He also signalled that the
government would challenge Benedict on his views on Europe and the EU. As
Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger he espoused the view that Turkey was a Middle Eastern
country that did not belong in the EU. There is no evidence that he has
changed his mind since becoming Pope.
But if Turkey’s difficult relationship with Europe and the fate of Christians
in Turkey are the key issues for the Ankara government and for the Vatican,
the impact of Benedict’s biggest trip will hinge on the gestures he makes
towards Islam. The Vatican announced last night that the Pope was considering a
brief stop at Istanbul’s Blue Mosque as "a sign of respect" after his visit
to St Sophia’s.
"We’re not against what he represents. We’re against him personally for what
he said," said Mr Gulumser at the Fatih mosque. "If he makes bridges and
makes peace, we will respect and like that."
· Backstory: Crusades to Bin Laden
The Christian-Muslim faultline first opened up in the decades following the
founding of Islam in the seventh century, with conflicts in Spain and France
in 722 and 732. The crusades were launched in the 11th century by western
Christians in an attempt to curtail the spread of Islam and to take controlof
the Holy Land. By then Muslims had conquered two-thirds of the ancient
Christian world.
Pope Urban II called for the first crusade at the Council of Clermont on
November 18 1095 after the Seljuk Turks had taken control of Jerusalem. Two
centuries of conflict followed in which parts of the Holy Land alternated between
Christian and Muslim control.
The last of these crusades in 1291 ended in defeat for the Christians with
the expulsion of the Latin Christians from Syria. After 1291, campaigns by
Christians against Muslims continued but began to wane by the 16th century as
papal authority declined. This period saw the fall of Constantinople in 1453,
where the forces of Mehmed II wrested control of the city from its Byzantine
rulers.
Conflicts have continued into the 20th century and include the killing of 1.5
million Armenian Christians by the Ottoman Turkish authorities between 1915
and 1923. In his messages Osama bin Laden refers to western-led conflicts in
the Middle East as a "Zionist-Crusader war against Islam". In 2000 Pope John
Paul II, sought forgiveness for all the past sins of the church, including
the crusades.

PanARMENIAN.Net

Schroeder: EU Should Support Turkey
24.11.2006 16:15 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Gerhard Schroeder, former German
Chancellor, said that the European Union ought to
support Turkey in its march towards EU membership. The
Turkish government is rightly asking for fair
treatment over the Cyprus question, said Schroeder,
and added that a fair approach to the issue would sort
things out. `Turkey projects political stability all
the way through Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey
could set an example for countries across the region.
That’s why Turkey should get support from the European
Union in its progress towards achievement of its
goals. Turkey is not in a position to beg for
membership to the European Union,’ said Schroeder,
reports zaman.com.

Lragir, Armenia
Nov 23 2006

ARMENIA DID NOT RECOGNIZE THE ARMENIAN GENOCIDE?

Paruyr Hayrikyan, the leader of the National Self-Determination
Union, Ruben Hovsepyan, ARF Dashnaktsutyun, and Levon Zurabyan,
supporter of the All-Armenian Movement, discussed the Armenian
genocide and other questions on November 23 at the Hayeli Club.

According to Levon Zurabyan, the question of the Armenian genocide is
a moral question and it was very bad to politicize it. `By shifting
the question of recognition of the Armenian genocide to the political
sphere we denigrate it. Politics is a trade of political interests
and by turning the question of the genocide into a political question
we are turning it into a subject of political trade.’ At one time
Levon Zurabyan, the press secretary of the former president Levon
Ter-Petrosyan said the administration of the first president
maintained the issue on the moral level and, therefore, they
succeeded in forcing out Turkey from a strong alliance with
Azerbaijan and separate the Turkish-Armenian relations from the
Armenian-Azerbaijani relations. On the days of the war a great amount
of wheat was brought to Armenia from Turkey. Levon Zurabyan does not
think that it was under the pressure of the international
organizations, because the same international organizations are
persuading Turkey to open the border, however Turkey does not agree,
and `Armenia became enemy number 1 of Turkey. After shifting the
issue of the genocide to the political sphere Turkey has an
opportunity to put a question mark beside the fact of the genocide.’
Meanwhile, the administration of the present president, according to
Levon Zurabyan, raised the issue formally and, in fact, pursues two
purposes, which have nothing to do with the genocide: to distract
peoples’ attention from economic problems and corruption in Armenia,
and to get the political assistance of people who deal with the
genocide in the Diaspora, outside Armenia.

Ruben Hovsepyan, member of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun Party, which is the
political supporter of the president, disagrees. Of course, he would
agree to view te Armenian genocide from the moral aspect `if in the
world morality were a way of life, a rule in relations, and all the
questions were settled in accordance with the rules of morality. If
we refer to a question as morality in this irregular, tought world,
you are sure not to reach anywhere.’

Levon Zurabyan thinks that the question of the recognition of the
Armenian Genocide is manipulated in both international problems and
the home affairs of one state or another. Ruben Hovsepyan disagrees
because he states that many do not recognize the Armenian genocide,
`they wait America to recognize to recognize one after another.’
According to him, however, our presidents did not politicize the
issue. `The world is in such a state, Turkey is in such a state.’

Paruyr Hairikyan thinks the recognition of the genocide arouses a
smile, `it is the same as to ask a criminal to plea guilty. No. A
criminal is punished and forced to recover the damage.’ Paruir
Hairikyan draws parallels with the territorial claims between Japan
and Russia and believes that the more claims we make against Turkey,
the more friendly Turkey would be. Meanwhile, the leader of the
National Self-Determination Union thinks that Armenia did not do as
much as France did. Armenia does not have a law which punishes the
denial of the genocide. `Generally, Russia set down the genocide in
1921 in the Russian-Turkish agreement, the initiative of recognition
of the genocide was not made by the Armenians, but the European
parlaiment in 1987. Meanwhile, for the political government of
Armenia, the recognition of the genocide is a game.’ But not because
of the bad intentions of the government. `We deal with unawareness,
let alone illiteracy.’

`If you have to live at the expense of denying your parents, you will
be lost,’ says Paruir Hairikyan evaluating the policy on the
recognition of the genocide adopted by the All-Armenian Movement and
adds that `you cannot sacrifice the hand for the small finger, but
you can sacrifice the small finger for the hand.’

NO GEORGIAN SPECIAL FORCES IN AKHALKALAKI AND BOGDANOVKA

PanARMENIAN.Net
22.11.2006 15:00 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ No Georgian special forces were deployed either in
Akhalkalaki nor in Bogdanovka, Javakhk News agency Armen Grigorian told
a PanARMENIAN.Net reporter. "The rumors must have emerged over the
accumulation of policemen at Zhdanovka customs point for inspection
of participants of the action held at the Armenian-Georgian border
on November 20. As result, 40 cars, several spades and an axe were
provisionally confiscated," Grigoryan said.

FUNDING FOCUS – CALOUSTE GULBENKIAN FOUNDATION

Young People Now
November 22, 2006

What’s it all about? The UK branch of this major Anglo-Portuguese
Trust, now entering its 51st year, has announced its four themes for
2007. Calouste Gulbenkian, by the way, was an Armenian Turk who made
money in the oil industry, before retiring to Portugal in the 1940s.

What does it fund? In 2007, the four priority areas are arts,
education, social change and welfare and Anglo-Portuguese cultural
relations. Under the education theme, there will be specific support
for youth organisations wishing to initiate projects aimed at fostering
better relations between young people from different cultures and
faiths. Other priorities include citizenship work in secondary schools,
by schools or partner bodies, that promotes understanding and empathy
between students of different cultural backgrounds. The arts programme
is mainly for professional artists or organisations doing innovative
and experimental work in public spaces. The social welfare programme
will support ‘radical, experimental but well thought through’
projects promoting financial inclusion, environmental awareness
among disadvantaged groups and supporting older people in their
communities. Check the ‘advice to applicants’ leaflet – there is a
long list of things the foundation won’t support, including building
work, drug or alcohol work, sport, conferences or religious activities.

Who can apply? Generally, it funds proposals from ‘charities or
otherwise tax-exempt’ groups. As a rule, the foundation supports
projects that are original in their field and favours those outside
London.

How much is available? There is a notional limit of pounds 15,000.

Application process: Trustees meet to consider proposals three times
a year in March, July and November. Grant proposals will need to be
submitted at least two months in advance of each meeting. There is
no standard application form so apply in writing – ‘succinctness is
welcomed’ – to Calouste Gulbenkian Foundation, UK Branch, 98 Portland
Place, WIB 1ET. Full details of eligibility and application procedures
are available on

VARTAN OSKANIAN RECEIVED THE OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS

Public Radio, Armenia
Nov 21 2006

November 21 RA Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanian received the OSCE Misk
Grouop Co-Chairs on the Karabakh conflict settlement Yuri Merzlyakov
and Bernard Fassier.

The interlocutors continued discussing the questions raised during
the November 14th meeting in Brussels.

The parties dwelt on the issues of the agenda of the possible meeting
between the Presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan to be held in the
framework of the summit of CIS leaders in Minsk November 28-29.

The Co-Chairs were received also by President Robert Kocharyan.

TOROSYAN SAYS NOT ONLY HHK VOTES INSTEAD OF FRIENDS

Panorama.am
15:20 21/11/06

Speaking about the recent voting on alienation of property for public
and state needs, Torosyan reiterated that there were not enough
deputies in the hall to adopt the bill. Explaining why he cancelled
the voting, Torosyan said he has followed the regulations. "It will
be so as long as I am heading the sessions," he said.

Speaking about the talks that mainly republicans vote instead of their
friends, Torosyan said there are more deputies from the Republican
Party (HHK), that is why their acts are more visible.

ECONOMIC GROWTH IN RUSSIA PROVOKES GROWTH IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES

Source: Biznes, November 15, 2006
Agency WPS
The Russian Business Monitor (Russia)
November 20, 2006 Monday

The CIS became a world’s leader according to the speed of GDP growth
among the economic alliances. According to the EBRD, in 2006, GDP
growth of the CIS countries will amount to 6.9% and will remain on
such level in the next few years. The main locomotives of the CIS
are Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan whose growth is based on raw
materials export, consumption and growing investments. In its report
the EBRD remarks that growth in such countries as Armenia, Georgia and
Ukraine is provided by "strong money transfer flows." Experts are not
surprised by such conclusions and say that economic growth in Russia
inevitable provokes growth in neighboring countries through capital
of private individuals who earn money in Russia but spend it in the
CIS countries.

In its report the EBRD says that economic growth of the countries
located between Central Europe and Central Asia is getting increasingly
provided by growing domestic demand. In general, economic growth in
this region in full year 2006, will amount to 6.2%. Along with this,
according to the EBRD, the CIS became the international regional
organization with the highest speed of economic developing approaching
7% closely. For example, growth of economies of the Southeastern
Europe is forecasted at a level of 5.9%, for Eastern Europe and
Baltic republics the growth is forecasted at 5.3. According to the
speed of growth the CIS outran also NAFTA countries (US, Canada and
Mexico). Eric Berglof, senior analyst of the EBRD, remarks, "We have
not expected such rapid growth of economies of the CIS countries."

The EBRD expects that in 2006, Russia’s economy will grow 6.5%. All
records are broken by Azerbaijan. Its GDP growth is estimated at 26%.

Analyst Olga Belenkaya of investment company Finam comments, "Such
growth happens primarily on account of the low base effect." Agvan
Mikaelyan, Deputy General Director of FinExpertiza, remarks, "The
higher the GDP the smaller the influence of the change. For example,
construction of even one plant in an industrially undeveloped country
can lead to a noticeable growth of its economic parameters."

Peter Westin, senior economist of MDM-bank, adds, "East European
countries already demonstrated economic growth at the beginning of the
1990s. They were also going to become members of the European Union
and NATO from the very start." Westin added that at the beginning
of reforms the CIS countries were in much worse position and the
initial economic decline was more dramatic than decline in the East
and Central European countries. He also says, "This partially explains
rapid growth of the CIS countries now."

According to experts, it would be more correct qualitative parameters
like GDP per capita. Westin explains, "In the East and Central European
countries it amounts to $10,000, whereas for CIS countries it amounts
to $1,684."

In its report the EBRD remarks that growth of Russia’s economy
is conditioned by consumer boom, as well as by growing foreign
investments. The EBRD insists that the nearest task of Russia is
diversification of economy enabling the country to reduce dependence
on raw material export. As to the other CIS countries not rich with
energy resources (Armenia, Georgia, Ukraine), the EBRD sees sources
of their current economic growth in growth of private consumption and
in cash transfer flows. Mikaelyan comments, "Almost all able-bodied
population of these countries works in Russia. These are not only
workers but also businessmen. Russian growth automatically turns
into money that those who have earned it transfer to their countries
and spend it there." He continues that, for example, Georgia consumes
$2-4 billion brought from Russia, Moldova consumes $1.-1.5 billion and
Armenia and Ukraine consumer $1-2 billion each. The expert concludes,
"Hence there is growth of consumption in these countries.

Our economies are integrated through workers and economic growth of
a number of the CIS countries is provided by growth of the Russian
economy."