‘DOWN PAYMENT’ IN DAMASCUS
Mideast Mirror
September 4, 2008 Thursday
French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s visit to Damascus and the four-way
summit which he will join constitute an important achievement for
Syrian diplomacy. Damascus has succeeded in breaking the Arab and
American siege imposed on it, and it has manoeuvred with great acumen
to gain as much time as possible in an attempt to avoid a confrontation
with the U.S. – pan-Arab al-Quds al-`Arabi
Damascus’s ‘good will’ gestures over the past months – whether
regarding Lebanon or Palestine – can be classified as a Syrian ‘down
payment’ to the next U.S. administration. Damascus will reap the
benefits of this later, when the Democratic candidate Barack Obama is
ensconced in the White House – Hussam Kanafani in Emirates’ al-Khaleej
It is unlikely that Syria’s attitude towards delineating borders [with
Lebanon] in Shebaa Farms will change during Sarkozy’s visit. True,
relations between Presidents Suleiman and Assad…play an important
role. It is also true that French openness to Syria has inaugurated
what President Assad referred to as ‘a new era.’ But it is also
true that strategic calculations take priority. Negotiations over
the Golan Heights must include the Shebaa Farms – Rafiq Khouri in
Lebanese al-Anwar
The Damascus summit – and, before that, the memorandum of understanding
with the Gulf states, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s
visit to Istanbul – consolidates the status of the AKP’s [ruling
Justice and Development Party] vision of Turkey in its regional and
international environment. This is a precedent not witnessed before
by any Middle Eastern, Arab, or Islamic state – Mohammad Noureddin
in Lebanese as-Safir
The four-way summit scheduled today (Thursday) between the leaders
of Syria, France, Turkey, and Qatar confirms that Syrian diplomatic
‘shrewdness’ has succeeded in bringing Damascus out of the isolation
that the U.S. and the Arab axis of moderation has been trying to impose
on it, maintains a pan-Arab daily. But there is much more to the summit
than ending Syria’s isolation, argues a Lebanese commentator. In
fact, Lebanon is both present and absent from the summit’s agenda,
claims another commentator. Elsewhere, another Lebanese commentator
tries to explain Turkey’s vital role in the summit.
NEW INTERNATIONAL BALANCE: "A four-way summit will be held today in
Damascus, bringing the leaders of France, Turkey, and Qatar together
with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad who is hosting the event,"
writes the editorial in Thursday’s London-based pan-Arab daily
al-Quds al-`Arabi.
"The summit will discuss many regional issues, including the indirect
Syrian-Israeli negotiations, the new international balance in the
shadow of recent events in Georgia, and the return of the Cold War,
after the renewed rise of Russian power.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s visit to Damascus and the four-way
summit which he will join constitute an important achievement for
Syrian diplomacy. Damascus has succeeded in breaking the Arab and
American siege imposed on it, and it has maneuvered with great acumen
to gain as much time as possible in an attempt to avoid a confrontation
with the U.S.
Over the past five years, the Syrian regime has been subjected to a
suffocating siege because of its refusal to embrace the U.S. project
in Iraq; its support for the Palestinian resistance movements opposed
to a settlement (Hamas and Islamic Jihad), its firm stance behind
Lebanese Hizbollah; and because it joined Iran against the Arab axis
of moderation, that includes Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the
Gulf states.
This siege should have been eased – especially in its Arab aspects –
after the Lebanese crisis eased, and after the election of Gen. Michel
Suleiman as president, the formation of a [Lebanese] government,
the Syrian government’s effective cooperation in preventing the
infiltration of Iraq by mujahideen fighters, the tight closure of the
Syrian-Iraqi borders, and Syria’s involvement in indirect negotiations
with Israel.
But the exact opposite happened. Syria’s estrangement from the axis
of moderation member states – in particular Egypt and Saudi Arabia –
continued. And the U.S. administration expressed its reservations
towards the Turkish-mediated Syrian-Israeli negotiations.
The French president could not have visited Damascus without first
obtaining a green light from Washington, or at least ensuring that
it does not object to such a visit. He is the U.S. administration’s
closest international ally. Therefore, Washington must support the
efforts aimed at distancing Syria from Iran, and perhaps Russia if
possible, even though the U.S. is unsure about its chances of success.
The changes on the international arena, the return of the Cold War,
the Western camp’s confused reactions to the Georgia crisis, have all
contributed to consolidating the Syrian position in its confrontation
with its enemies. They have transformed Damascus into a difficult
element that is hard to ignore in the new emerging international
system.
This will have repercussions on the Arab region in the coming months,
perhaps years. And this explains the concern expressed by certain
Lebanese parties unfriendly to Syria who have voiced noticeable
annoyance at Sarkozy’s visit to Damascus.
The four-way summit today is the first consequence of the new strategic
transformations in the Arab region after the Georgia crisis. It amounts
to a defeat for the U.S. projects in Iraq and Afghanistan. It is a
summit that points to a new map of regional alliances. In particular,
it points to the extent of Syrian-Turkish coordination on many of
the region’s files.
Syria’s departure from the triangle that brought it together with
Egypt and Saudi Arabia – a triangle in which it was cornered for at
least twenty years – has begun to bear fruit. It has restored Syria’s
effective strategic role at the level of regional and international
policies.
It is true that the beginnings of this change were difficult and
costly. But such things are only to be expected in all such strategic
regional transformations. Russia passed through a similar transitional
period after the collapse of the Soviet Union – bearing in mind the
differences, of course.
Syria has overcome its predicament, at least partially. It has begun to
emerge from its isolation in a gradual and precisely calculated manner.
"And this reconfirms Syria’s well-known shrewd bargaining mentality,"
concludes the daily.
MANY SIGNALS: "French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s visit to Damascus
sends many signals that are not confined to ‘ending the isolation’
imposed on the Syrian capital ever since the [2005] assassination of
former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri," writes Hussam Kanafani
in Thursday’s UAE daily al-Khaleej.
"The visit is worthy of being described as ‘historic.’ But it will
certainly not bring a cost-free-European openness to Syria. There are
likely to be many preconditions in the French president’s quiver which
he is transmitting to his Syrian counterpart Bashar al-Assad. Foremost
among them are likely to be those that have to do with Syrian-Iranian
relations.
Unlike Washington, Paris is not insisting on ‘distancing Damascus
from Tehran’ as a precondition for talking with Damascus. But such
distancing follows naturally from this openness. This is the basis
of the mediation [with Israel] that Sarkozy proposed to Assad during
the Paris summit that brought them together on July 12th.
Damascus realizes that this file heads the West’s list of current
concerns, alongside the recent visit by Assad to Russia, and his
attitude to the conflict between the Russian Federation and the
West. As for the Lebanese file, it is no longer at the forefront of
events after the election of a new president and agreement between
Syria and Lebanon to establish diplomatic relations.
On the other side, the Syrians are making no secret of their desire to
draw closer to the West in general, and the U.S. in particular. They
view the rapprochement with France as a gateway for heading
subsequently towards Washington under the new U.S. administration.
Damascus’s ‘good will’ gestures over the past months – whether
regarding Lebanon or Palestine – can be classified as a Syrian ‘down
payment’ to the next U.S. administration. Damascus will reap the
benefits of this later, when the Democratic candidate Barack Obama
is ensconced in the White House.
It is clear that the French visit reflects mutual desires from Syria on
the one hand, and from the West in general, and France in particular,
on the other.
France – the current president of the EU – is trying to bring the
EU back to the Middle East via the Syrian gateway. This was clearly
expressed by Sarkozy when he noted that’the road to peace passes
through Syria and France.’ This was a direct and public recognition
of Syria’s focal and strategic role in the Middle East, which is part
of what Damascus wants.
"This role enables Damascus to elicit Western proposals that secure
the regime’s survival, regain its rights and occupied territories,
and secure an economic openness that compensates Syria for what it
may lose by complying with the West’s wishes," concludes Kanafani.
ABSENT-PRESENT: "Lebanon is both present and absent from the Damascus
talks," writes Editor-in-chief Rafiq Khouri in Thursday’s centrist
Lebanese daily al-Anwar.
"It is present on the agenda of the summit between Presidents Nicolas
Sarkozy and Bashar al-Assad. But there is no need for it to present
at the four-way summit that will include the Emir of Qatar Hamad bin
Khalifa and Turkish PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan – even if some would have
preferred a five-way summit that also includes [Lebanese] President
Michel Suleiman.
The two-way [Sarkozy/Assad] summit continues a track that was
inaugurated at the July Paris summit [between the two presidents]
after the [May 2008] Doha Agreement. The first practical steps along
this path were taken at the Damascus summit between Presidents Suleiman
and Assad.
As for the four-way summit, it mainly focuses on the Turkish-mediated
indirect negotiations between Syria and Israel, and on the possibility
that they may turn into French-sponsored direct negotiations that both
Damascus and Paris want, but that must wait for the U.S. sponsorship
that both Syria and Israel desire.
Lebanon – to which Washington and Paris have proposed indirect
negotiations [with Israel] under their sponsorship – still maintains
a policy whose main pillar is the demand for Israel to withdraw
form Sheba’a Farms in accordance with UNSCR 425, and without any
negotiations.
It is unlikely that Syria’s attitude towards delineating borders in
Sheba’a Farms will change during Sarkozy’s visit. True, relations
between Presidents Suleiman and Assad – just like relations between
all Arab leaders – play an important role. It is also true that French
openness to Syria has inaugurated what President Assad referred to as
‘a new era.’
But it is also true that strategic calculations take
priority. Negotiations over the Golan Heights must include the Sheba’a
Farms. Damascus’s position is clear: ‘No delineation of the Farms’
borders before the end of the occupation of the Golan.’ As for Israel,
its position – which both Sarkozy and [U.S. Secretary of State] Rice
have heard – is that the Farms are part of the negotiations with Syria,
where the talks center on the mutual price that must be paid. It is
only Lebanon that is unable to pay anything in return.
Moreover, the view from Paris is that Sarkozy’s visit ‘confirms the
failure’ of Washington and Paris’s policy of ‘isolating Syria.’ This
what Deputy Editor-in-chief of Le Monde Diplomatique Alan Gresh wrote,
explaining this failure as ‘a misreading’ of the Lebanese situation and
of Syrian policy towards Lebanon. The Lebanese split is not between
‘good guys and bad guys,’ but between ‘two coalitions each of which
includes half the Lebanese people.’ And Damascus’s current policy
towards Lebanon is that ‘there should be no hostile authority there,
while leaving its problems – including Hizbollah’s weapons – open
ended’ as a card that can be used in the regional and international
game.
Sarkozy speaks of a ‘risk’ and of willingness to retreat if deeds fail
to match words. It is as if, in Damascus, he is playing the same role
played by [the first eighth century ‘Umayyad Caliph who was based in
Damascus] Mu’awiyah, which he summed up as: ‘I do not enter a place
unless I can already ensure the way out of it.’"
"But everybody knows that Sarkozy is on the path of no-return as part
of certain strategic calculations," concludes Khouri.
THE FIRST OF ITS KIND: "A four-way summit will be held today in
Damascus between the leaders of Syria, France, Turkey, and Qatar,"
writes Mohammad Noureddin in Thursday’s left-leaning Beirut daily
as-Safir.
The first thing to note is that each of these leaders – with the
exception of Turkey – currently occupies the post of president of the
group to which he belongs. Thus, Damascus is President of the Arab
Summit; Doha is President of the Gulf Cooperation Council [GCC];
and Paris holds the EU presidency. And this means that this summit
represents more than the number of leaders participating in it.
This is the first time that a summit of this nature is held. Each
participant state has its own calculations and aspires to roles in
regional – and even international – issues that are greater than
its weight. Theoretically at least, one can expect this summit to be
unusual and its results to be exceptional.
Turkey was one of those invited to the two-way summit between Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad and French President Nicolas Sarkozy from
the beginning. Assad made a personal effort to invite Turkish PM Recep
Tayyip Erdogan, who in turn was grateful to Assad for his invitation.
Turkey’s participation at the summit has raised additional questions
regarding the summit’s role. Assad’s statements about his desire
for France to sponsor the negotiations with Israel when they become
direct casts some light on certain aspects of Erdogan’s participation
at the summit.
Turkey is the current sponsor of the negotiations, and coordination
with it is necessary to ensure a normal transition to the phase of
French sponsorship.
Despite Ankara’s complete preoccupation with the situation in the
Caucasus and the likely visit by Turkish President Abdullah Gul to
Armenia next Saturday – a visit that is preoccupying Turkish public
opinion and causing much debate in Turkey – Erdogan made sure to
respond to Assad’s invitation.
His aim was to stress that Turkey stands at an equal distance from all
Arab parties, especially after signing a Memorandum of Understanding
and Cooperation between Turkey and the GCC yesterday.
At the same time, inviting Ankara, in particular, to the four-way
summit can serve Damascus’s current stance by re-confirming its close
relations with Turkey, and by highlighting the fact that the latter
is not interested in coming down on the side of the Arab moderates,
at the expense of its relations with Damascus.
Moreover, Turkey is benefiting by adding impetus to the French role in
the Middle East. It has thus lent Paris a new supportive position after
its support for the [French-sponsored] Union for the Mediterranean that
was launched in Paris in July, despite the fact that certain circles
in Turkey viewed the Union as a trap to distance Turkey from Europe,
and find a different receptacle for it [other than the EU] .
With this four-way summit, Turkey will be taking yet another step
to confirm its role in most regional and international files. The
Turkish daily Zaman has reported Turkish sources as saying that the
summit will discuss the negotiations between Syria and Israel as well
as negotiations between the Palestinians and Israel.
The sources add that the Turkish Foreign Ministry places great
importance on this summit which reaffirms Turkey’s role between the
West and the East, and the trust that it enjoys as a mediator in the
negotiations between Syria and Israel.
Turkish sources believe that signing the memorandum of understanding
with the GCC is the first organic institutional link between Turkey
and the Arabs – bearing in mind that Turkey has been invited to
Arab summits on a periodic basis, although it is not a member of
these summits.
The Damascus summit – and, before that, the memorandum of understanding
with the Gulf states, and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s
visit to Istanbul – consolidates the status of the AKP’s [ruling
Justice and Development Party] vision of Turkey in its regional and
international environment.
"This is a precedent not witnessed before by any Middle Eastern,
Arab, or Islamic state," concludes Noureddin.