Author: Jalatian Sonya

In recent days, Azerbaijan has started to talk about joining the CSTO or getting observer status in the organization at the beginning. However, how likely is it that Azerbaijan will be a part of the organization in the future?

In a conversation with VERELQ, political scientist Grigor Balasanyan expressed the opinion that the talks on this topic are more of a method of “probing the terrain and subjecting Armenia to psychological pressure on one more issue” than a situation with serious foundations. According to him, it is out of date to talk realistically about Azerbaijan’s accession to the CSTO and, in general, it is not necessary to touch on this topic and make noise about it. Balasanyan drew attention to the fact that these conversations became active immediately after the signing of the agreement on the status of the Caspian Sea.

Azerbaijan, which, in its opinion, came one step closer to Russia, began to raise this issue in order to show Moscow how reliable a partner it is and that the narrower scope of this partnership and closer relations are still ahead.

“However, there is one circumstance that makes Azerbaijan’s membership in the CSTO impossible. First of all, Azerbaijan’s foreign policy doctrine, which states that Azerbaijan cannot become a member of any pro-Western, pro-Eastern or pro-Russian coalition or integration process,” he reminded.

The political scientist expressed the opinion that the accession of Azerbaijan to the CSTO is not beneficial for Russia either, because in that case the Nagorno Karabakh conflict and the negotiations will be transferred to the CSTO framework, willy-nilly, which cannot be accepted by the other member states of the organization. And in this case, according to Balasanyan, it is unlikely that these countries will willingly burden themselves for the settlement of an additional territorial problem, when both sides are their allies in the CSTO framework.

“Of course, Azerbaijan would like to join, because in that case, the purchase of weapons from Russia would be more justified and put on a legal basis, referring to the CSTO statute, by which it will be able to buy weapons from the Russian Federation at domestic prices. However, there is one circumstance that the partners of our neighboring country do not pay attention to. According to the rumors, Israeli military bases or at least military specialists – experts and advisers – are located in the south of Azerbaijan, which both arm the Azerbaijani army and carry out certain intelligence operations in the territory of Iran. I don’t think that Russia and other CSTO member states will agree to include a country in whose territory there are Israeli military bases,” our interlocutor emphasized.

As for the development of Russian-Azerbaijani relations, Grigor Balasanyan noted that it is not new that they are warming up, and the biggest danger for Armenia in this context is the sale of weapons by Moscow to Baku, which is being carried out today. But there is no question of volume change.

“So if this is already a reality, it is premature to talk about other dangers. By the way, since there are rumors about Baku’s interest in the Eurasian Economic Union, I should also mention the fact that Azerbaijan’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union is neither economically nor politically beneficial to Russia today. Without it, the Turkish factor is quite influential in the EAEU today, I mean to bring Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan and another Turkish-speaking country into the union, where decisions are made by a simple majority of votes, it is not true, there will be a ratio of 3 to 3, which is not at all beneficial to Russia and also to Belarus at the moment,” he added. Balasanyan.

To remind, Ali Husaynli, deputy of the Azerbaijani parliament, head of the Azerbaijani-Russian inter-parliamentary cooperation group, stated that it is appropriate to discuss Azerbaijan’s participation in the CSTO.