Racine readies for visit by Armenian ‘pope’

WKBT, WI
Oct 20 2007

Racine readies for visit by Armenian ‘pope’

Associated Press – October 20, 2007 10:55 AM ET

RACINE, Wis. (AP) – Armenians in Wisconsin are getting ready for a
big event next week. For the first time in nearly 50 years, their
version of the pope will be visiting the state.

His Holiness Karekin the second will lead a service at St. Mesrob
Armenian Apostolic Church on Tuesday night in Racine.

The church’s pastor, Yeprem Kelegian says it’s a big visit and
Armenians look to this leader as though he were pope.

Kelegian says he was about 13 the last time an Armenian spiritual
leader visited, and that time was in West Allis.

Kelegian says the church holds about 300 people but they are
expecting a crowd and plan to stream video and audio into the
church’s hallways.

The Supreme Patriach – as Karekin is called – started a visit to the
U.S. on October 3rd in New York. He plans to end his trip on November
1st in Detroit.

During his time in Wisconsin, he will also meet with Archbishop
Timothy Dolan and other representatives of Christian faiths.

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http://wkbt.com/Global/story.asp?S=724084

Larsen backtracks on genocide bill

Whidbey News Times, WA
Oct 20 2007

Larsen backtracks on genocide bill

By Jim Larsen

Oct 20 2007

Reluctant to offend Turkey, Second District Congressman Rick Larsen,
D-Lake Stevens, has withdrawn his co-sponsorship of a bill that would
describe Turkey’s treatment of Armenians in the early 1900s as
`genocide.’

Larsen was one of more than 200 co-sponsors of the House bill, which
was backed by the Democratic leadership. But after Turkey, a NATO
ally of the U.S., made its virulent opposition known, Larsen joined a
number of other Congress men and women in backtracking.

`Turkey has been a key NATO ally for 55 years, and is currently
working with the United States on a number of important issues. We
need to hold the perpetrators of genocide accountable, but this is
not the right time for this resolution,’ Larsen said in a statement
released Wednesday.

Hundreds of thousands of Armenians were killed as the Ottoman empire
dissolved during World War I. Armenians claim it was genocide, while
Turkey describes it as a tragedy of the times.

As of Thursday, the proposal had not come up for a House vote. Turkey
declared that passing the bill would harm relations with the U.S.,
which needs Turkey’s help with the Iraq situation.

Also this week, Larsen called for his colleagues to help override a
veto by President Bush of legislation to preserve health care
coverage of millions of children currently covered by the Children’s
Health Insurance Program, and extend it to millions of other children
in families with higher incomes. In vetoing the measure, Bush called
it too expensive.

According to estimates from the Washington State Department of Social
and Health Services, the president’s veto of The Children’s Health
Insurance Program Reauthorization Act of 2007 (H.R. 976) could mean
that thousands of children in Island, San Juan, Snohomish, Skagit and
Whatcom counties won’t get the health care coverage.

In Island County, approximately 338 children may not receive the
health care coverage. In Skagit County 835 children may not receive
the coverage, and in Snohomish County 963 children could be affected.

The House voted on Thursday and failed to get the two-thirds
necessary to override the president’s veto.

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http://www.whidbeynewstimes.com/portals-code/lis

Ex-chess master returns to Phila. with new goals

Philadelphia Inquirer, PA
Oct 20 2007

Ex-chess master returns to Phila. with new goals

By Melissa Dribben and Ashwin Verghese
INQUIRER STAFF WRITERS

Hands in his pockets, trailed by a jostling horde of photographers
and reporters, Garry Kasparov strolled around a long row of tables in
the Central Library of the Free Library of Philadelphia today,
glancing over the shoulders of a few dozen Philadelphia teenagers
engrossed in chess.
They barely looked up.

Few words were exchanged. The teens were in the presence of one of
the greatest chess minds on Earth, but felt little more than the
draft of fame as he passed by.

Although these two dozen students have studied some of Kasparov’s
strategies, much of his contribution to chess theory is beyond their
grasp, at least for now, said Steven Shutt, a chess coach and teacher
at Masterman School.

"His games are a bit sophisticated for the kids," Shutt said. "There
is such nuance in the moves he chooses."

Including the one he made, coming to Philadelphia for the day.

It was, in part, to promote his new book, How Life Imitates Chess. In
part, to inspire the students from the after-school program
Philadelphia Youth Chess Challenge.

And in large part, to serve his political ends. As a prominent member
of Russia’s opposition movement and a presidential candidate,
Kasparov has had to struggle to be heard in his own country.

With virtually no hope of getting elected to office, he compares his
candidacy to a chess game in which, even if victory is impossible,
there is honor in keeping the opponent off balance to the end.

"Every day we survive makes life for the regime more annoying," he
said.

Kasparov seemed interested in learning about the students – peppering
their teachers with questions about which chess books they use, the
number of children who play. And although he insisted that the skills
that make someone a great chess player have no direct application
beyond the parameters of the game, chess as metaphor was clearly the
theme of his visit.

In his current political role, however, he is apparently engaged in a
life-size match, the complex details of which were analyzed earlier
this month in a profile in the New Yorker.

If he was furthering his strategic goals, along with his book sales,
at the library, it registered little with the students.

Chins perched pensively on fists, they focused on their pawns and
rooks moving across roll-up plastic chess boards curling at the
edges.

The students had their own complex motives for playing. "It keeps you
out of trouble. It keeps you occupied," said Tamir Kennedy, 14, a
freshman at Vaux Roberts High School.

"I heard it could help with math, and I wasn’t doing so well with
that," said Maleek Singleton, 18, a senior. Since he took up the game
in ninth grade, he’s been getting straight A’s, he said. Chess, he
said, also taught him to "show good patience and poise."

You learn manners, too, evidently.

"Nice move," Charmaine Brown, 15, a Vaux sophomore, said in
graciously praising her opponent.

Like most of the students invited to skip English, chemistry and the
cafeteria for a chance to meet – perhaps even play against – the
master, Brown said she knew little about Kasparov other than that he
was a brilliant player and was involved in politics in Russia.

She had never heard of Deep Blue, the chess-playing computer that
Kasparov defeated in Philadelphia in 1996 – when she was 4.

That was the last time the man who reigned for 15 years as world
chess champion set foot in this city.

"It’s good to be back," he said, shortly after he’d been whisked over
from 30th Street Station, where his train had arrived 15 minutes
late.

His remarks, delivered to an audience of several hundred, centered
mostly on Russian politics. And in the question-and-answer period,
only adults asked for the microphone, asking for his views on
Armenian genocide (he’s half-Armenian) and anti-Semitism (he’s
half-Jewish), if he misses being regarded as the world’s greatest
chess player (no), and whether he considers Mikhail Gorbachev an ally
(emphatically no).

If, during his brief walk around Philadelphia’s young players,
Kasparov detected any incipient brilliance or imminent blunders, he
didn’t let on.

He had a bigger game on his mind.

A few kids left grumbling that they didn’t have a chance to test
their skills against the Big Guy.

But most, like Jacob Kelly, 13, an eighth grader at Masterman, had no
hard feelings. Just getting to see Kasparov was worth the field trip,
he said:

"It was pretty cool."

71019_Ex-chess_master_returns_to_Phila__with_new_g oals.html

http://www.philly.com/philly/news/200

BAKU: US Rep appeals to Pelosi on Day of Azerbaijan Independence

Azeri Press Agency, Azerbaijan
Oct 19 2007

US congresswoman appeals to Nancy Pelosi on Day of Azerbaijan’s Independence

[ 19 Oct 2007 11:59 ]

Member of US-Azerbaijan working group Eddie Bernice Johnson appealed
to the country’s legislative body in the House of Representatives on
occasion of October 18 – Day of Azerbaijan’s Independence,
Azerbaijani embassy in the US told APA.

Ms. Johnson in her appeal to Nancy Pelosi, said that one of the key
democratic allies of the US – the Republic of Azerbaijan – is set to
celebrate the 16th Anniversary of its re-independence on October 18.
In the current global political climate, Azerbaijan is unique among
democracies as the world’s first Muslim democratic republic.
Azerbaijan cooperates with the United States within international and
regional institutions including UN, Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) and Organization for Democracy and
Development – GUAM.
`The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan main oil export pipeline was inaugurated and
Azerbaijan also actively promotes the Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railroad
project
During the last decade Azerbaijan has been implementing structural
reforms and adopting numerous laws and legislative changes, paving
the way toward further integration within the global economy. As
reported by the International Monetary Fund, IMF, Azerbaijan’s
macroeconomic performance `has been impressive with strong growth,
low inflation, and a stable exchange rate,’ she says.
Touching upon Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict the congresswoman said that
Nagorno Karabakh is an integral part of Azerbaijan.
She said the US Department of State several times noted in its
reports that this territory is an integral part of Azerbaijan. /APA/

Iraqi Kurds: No To Turkish Military Push

IRAQI KURDS: NO TO TURKISH MILITARY PUSH
By Yahya Barzanji

The Associated Press
Oct 18 2007

IRBIL, Iraq (AP) – Thousands of Kurds joined rallies across northern
Iraq and marched to U.N. offices Thursday to protest a vote by Turkey’s
lawmakers that backed possible cross-border attacks against Kurdish
rebel camps.

The Turkish vote Wednesday removed the last legal obstacle to an
offensive to root out guerrillas seeking autonomy for the mostly
Kurdish region of southeastern Turkey. But there no sign of imminent
military strikes, and the United States and the Iraqi government have
urged restraint.

"No to military action. Yes to dialogue," demonstrators shouted
as more than 5,000 people headed to U.N. offices in Dahuk near the
Turkish border.

Protesters delivered a document calling for U.N. intervention to stop
any further incursions into Iraq by Turkey – which has sent troops
across the border several times in past decades to chase the Kurdish
Workers’ Party, or PKK.

In Irbil, the capital of Iraq’s Kurdish region, children in school
uniforms and other protesters waved banners in Kurdish and English:
"Understanding each other is better than killing each other."

The rallies also tapped into Kurdish solidarity for a people spread
across several borders in the region, including Turkey, Iran, Iraq and
Syria. Some protesters brandished the sunshine-crested flag of Iraq’s
autonomous Kurdish region and joined in pro-Kurdish slogans and songs.

"We in our country have done nothing against neighboring Turkey and
we will not allow that our dignity be violated," said Evan Dosky,
a 26-year-old university student.

Washington has urged its longtime ally Turkey to work with Iraqis to
crack down on the rebels, fearing a unilateral offensive by Turks
might bring chaos and a refugee crisis to one of the rare stable
areas in Iraq. Oil prices, meanwhile, have spiked on worries that a
Turkish drive could disrupt supplies.

But Turkey, a NATO member, says it has the right to attack Kurdish
rebels in Iraq in the name of fighting terrorism – drawing parallels
to the U.S.-led campaigns in Afghanistan after the Sept. 11, 2001
attacks. Washington lists the PKK as a terrorist organization.

"Those who criticize us on the parliamentary motion should explain
what they are doing in Afghanistan," said Turkey’s justice minister,
Mehmet Ali Sahin. "Turkey is implementing the same international rule."

Turkish relations with Washington have been further strained by U.S
congressional debate on whether to declare as a genocide the killing
of up to 1.5 million Armenians by Turks during World War I. Turkey
denies there was a systematic campaign to eliminate Armenians, saying
the deaths came during the civil unrest that accompanied the collapse
of the Ottoman Empire.

The PKK has long maintained hideouts along the rugged Iraq-Turkey
border during its 23-year separatist campaign, which has left an
estimated 37,000 people dead.

Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, a Kurd, said the government
was willing to increase pressure on the PKK, but it doesn’t have the
forces to push it out of the country.

"The Iraqi government is not running away from its responsibilities.

It’s just a question of time," he told The Associated Press in a
telephone interview.

"You need to dislodge them by force," he said. "Iraqi security forces
are battling the terrorists in the streets of Baghdad and many other
key cities and are over-stretched. To release these forces really
would create a vacuum."

But, he said, Iraq could take steps to cut off supplies and create
checkpoints to limit access for the rebels in the north. He also
recommended three-party talks between Iraq, Turkey and the United
States.

"We would definitely consider a number of measures to take to disrupt
PKK activities … but we need to discuss these," he said. "We haven’t
seen that great enthusiasm from the Turkish side to engage seriously
in a substantive dialogue."

In Washington, Iraqi government spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh chided Iraqi
Kurds for not chasing the PKK out of their autonomous region. He said
the "natural feeling" of the Iraqi Kurds is to "feel sympathy with
their brothers in Turkey."

"The Iraqi government is calling the Turkey government not to use the
military solution and refrain from crossing the Iraqi border," he said.

"Armenian Railroad" To Be Handed Over To Concessive Management On Ja

"ARMENIAN RAILROAD" TO BE HANDED OVER TO CONCESSIVE MANAGEMENT ON JANUARY 15 OF 2008

Mediamax, Armenia
Oct 18 2007

Yerevan, October 18 /Mediamax/. "Armenian Railroad" CJSC will be
handed over to concessive management on January 15 of 2008.

Mediamax reports that the Minister of Transport and Communication of
Armenia Andranik Manukian said this in Yerevan today. He informed that
two companies will participate in the tender: the "Russian Railroads"
CJSC and the Indian RITES (Rail India Technical and Economic Services)
Company. The Minister stated that the packages with the proposals from
the companies will be opened on December 21 of 2007, and on December
28 the price proposals will be publicized.

The "Armenian Railroad" CJSC is planned to be handed over to concessive
management at the term of 30 years with the right of prolongation for
20 years. According to the conditions of the tender, the concessionaire
is obliged to realize investments at the sum of $170mln in the course
of 10 years.

Chairman Of Armenia’s CB To Participate In Annual Board Meeting Of W

CHAIRMAN OF ARMENIA’S CB TO PARTICIPATE IN ANNUAL BOARD MEETING OF WB AND IMF MANAGERS

ARKA News Agency, Armenia
Oct 18 2007

YEREVAN, October 17. /ARKA/. Chairman of the Central Bank of Armenia
(CBA) Tigran Sargsyan will participate in the annual Board meeting of
managers of World Bank and International Monetary Fund groups. The
CBA press service said that to participate in the event Sargsyan
within Armenia’s delegation left for Washington.

Sargsyan will participate in the plenary Board sessions of the WB
and IMF groups. Besides, meetings with the IMF Executive Director,
IMF Director on Middle East and Middle Asia, and Director of the WB
group on South Caucasus are planned.

Sargsyan will also meet with the IMF Heads and delegation.

The CBA press service informs that on October 23 Sargsyan will
participate in the session of the Intergovernmental Commission on
the Armenian-American Economic Cooperation.

The agenda of the session includes: discussion of the Armenian-American
cooperation and contribution to Armenia, democratic reforms,
contributing to the economic growth, Millennium challenges program,
economic policy and log-term growth, reforms of legal system, money
and credit reforms and financial issues.

An open letter to the Armenian Diaspora

TDN
An open letter to the Armenian Diaspora
Thursday, October 18, 2007
If we will start listening to your narrative, that will not be
because we are pushed into a corner by the politics of a powerful
lobby, but because our hearts are touched by the memoirs of a terrible
tragedy

Mustafa AKYOL
Dear all,
A few days ago a new friend of mine who happens to be an American
Armenian played some beautiful songs for me that come from the deepest
roots of her ethnic tradition. While I enjoyed the numinous rhythms of
that magnetic Armenian music, I realized how similar they were to the
tunes of the Turkish classical music that I have grown up
hearing. `Despite all the political warfare,’ I said to myself, `alas,
look how similar we are.’ I actually have a similar feeling when I
drive along the magnificent mosques and palaces of Istanbul, some of
which were built by Armenian architects – men in fez who devoutly
worshipped Christ and proudly served the Sultan.
Well, we were the children of the same empire, weren’t we? We
actually lived side by side as good neighbors for centuries until the
modern virus called `nationalism’ descended upon us. And then hell
broke loose.
A war of two narratives:
I know what you think about that hell, especially about its most
horrific episode, the one that took place in the year 1915. Your
grandmothers must have told you about the plunderers, killers and
rapists who attacked them and countless fellow Armenians. You call the
whole tragedy `the Armenian Genocide’ and try to convince the
parliaments of the world to accept that definition. You also think, I
presume, that we Turks are monsters who not only committed that
horrible crime, but also refuse to take responsibility for it even
after nearly a century.
This is how you see history and the present moment, right? Well, as
a Turk, let me say that I understand you. Because I see that you
sincerely believe in the accuracy of the historical narrative that you
were raised on. How else could you have responded to that?
However, please note that there is another narrative about the
tragedy of 1915, and that is what we Turks have been raised on. Our
grandmothers told us that Armenians of the time collaborated with the
Russian invaders and started to kill our people. Then, the narrative
goes, our people started to kill the Armenians in order to both to
protect themselves and to take revenge. `They killed us and so we
killed them’ is the summary of what 99 percent of the Turks know and
think about what you call genocide. And just like you do, they
sincerely believe in the accuracy of their historical narrative.
So there are two different accounts of what really happened in
1915. I know that in the Western academic world your narrative has
gained much more support, but there are serious non-Turkish scholars
who tend to agree with the Turkish version, too. When I read the works
of professor Guenter Lewy recently, for example, I was convinced that
what my grandmother told me was really true.
Of course I am no expert on the issue. I don’t have enough knowledge
to decide whether the truth lies in your narrative, in our narrative,
or somewhere in between. But I am open to learning more and
reconsidering my position. `Follow the evidence,’ one of my core
principles reads, `wherever it may lead.’ And, believe me, that there
are so many people in Turkey who think the same way.
Pushing the wrong way:
Now since we are getting to know each other, let me be a bit more
blunt and take on what you have just done by convincing the
U.S. Congress to pass a resolution on `the Armenian Genocide.’
If you think that acts like these will push us Turks to be more
self-critical and initiate an internal discussion that will lead us to
consider your narrative about 1915, you are daydreaming. The reality
is quite the contrary. Foreign pressure will make Turkish society only
more reactionary. Grounds for internal discussion will
vanish. Moreover, our ultra-nationalist nuts will go crazier than
ever. Their most militant ones might well target, once again, liberal
intellectuals and our Armenian citizens. You are simply fuelling the
fire.
The leaders of Turkey’s Armenian community, including Patriarch
Mesrob Mutafyan II, have been warning you about these dangers and
urging you to stop playing this resolution game. But sadly, you don’t
ever listen to them. You accuse them for lacking courage and having a
defeatist psychology. But how do you know that you yourselves are not
the victims of another psychology – that of the diaspora? Social
scientists repeatedly say that diaspora communities tend to go
fanatic. Have you ever considered taking a hint?
If you would like to hear some friendly advice, here it is: If you
really want to see more Turks reflecting on your narrative about the
tragedy of 1915, initiate a genuine dialogue. Try to convince not
Mrs. Pelosi and her colleagues, but us, the Turks. Write more books
and articles, create better movies and Web sites, and organize fair
conferences and seminars telling us about your story. And do these not
as propaganda tools against the Turks, but as communication efforts
toward them.
Convey your message calmly, in other words, and it will be
heard. But don’t try to impose it onto us. We are not a nation of
monsters, but we do have a stubborn side. When foreigners start to
dictate our history to us, we tend to revert back to our grandmothers’
stories. And if we will start listening to your narrative, that will
not be because we are pushed into a corner by the politics of a
powerful lobby, but because our hearts are touched by the memoirs of a
terrible tragedy. Sincerely,
Mustafa Akyol
A fellow Anatolian

Common Educational Draft Code To Be Developed In Near Future

COMMON EDUCATIONAL DRAFT CODE TO BE DEVELOPED IN NEAR FUTURE

Noyan Tapan
Oct 17 2007

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 17, NOYAN TAPAN. Expanded parliamentary hearings with
regard to the legislative parcel on "General Education" were held
on October 16, which was attended by experts and representatives of
the sphere, as well as of non-governmental organizations. As Levon
Mkrtchian, the RA Minister of Education and Science, mentioned,
the legal field of all the branches of the educational sphere,
from pre-school up to post graduate, will be made complete by the
adoption of that parcel of bills, which will allow to develop and
submit the common educational draft code to the National Assembly of
the current convocation for approval. According to the Minister, that
legislative parcel creates bases for further development and solves
a number of problems of principle, the most important among which is
"the combination of the interests of a free harmonious individual
and a strong state having general education."

It was mentioned that the Ministry will present to the government
the schedule and conception of the 2015 education in near future.

Baku, Yerevan Quietly Building Military Strength Instead Of Holding

BAKU, YEREVAN QUIETLY BUILDING MILITARY STRENGTH INSTEAD OF HOLDING KARABAKH PEACE TALKS
By Emil Danielyan

Eurasia Daily Monitor, DC
Oct 16 2007

The presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan have finally dashed hopes for
a near-term settlement of the Karabakh conflict with their failure to
hold yet another, potentially decisive round of negotiations. Armenian
President Robert Kocharian publicly declared on October 11 that
contrary to the international community’s expectations, the bitter
dispute will not be resolved before presidential elections due in
both South Caucasus states next year.

With Kocharian completing his second and final term in office, at
least one of them will have a new president.

"My assessment of the current state of negotiating process is that
we are unlikely to reach an agreement on the principles [of Karabakh
peace] before the presidential elections," the outgoing Armenian
leader said during a visit to Brussels (Armenian Public Television,
October 11).

This became evident when Kocharian and Azerbaijani President Ilham
Aliyev pointedly declined to meet each other on the sidelines of the
latest Commonwealth of Independent States summit held in Dushanbe
on October 6. The French, Russian, and U.S. mediators acting under
the aegis of the OSCE Minsk Group pushed hard for such an encounter,
viewing it as their last chance to broker an Armenian-Azerbaijani
framework peace accord this year. They visited the conflict zone in
mid-September and held separate follow-up meetings with the Armenian
and Azerbaijani foreign ministers in New York in early October for that
purpose. But as Aliyev’s chief foreign policy aide, Novruz Mammadov,
said on October 4, those last-ditch diplomatic efforts "did not create
the need" for a fresh Armenian-Azerbaijani summit (Day.az, October 5).

The most recent Aliyev-Kocharian meeting, held in St. Petersburg in
June, failed to yield a breakthrough despite indications that the
conflicting parties have agreed on most of the basic principles of a
Karabakh settlement put forward by the Minsk Group co-chairs. Those
call for the conflict’s gradual resolution that would start with the
liberation of virtually all Armenian-controlled Azerbaijani districts
surrounding Karabakh and end in a referendum of self-determination in
the disputed territory. The mediators had expected Aliyev and Kocharian
to agree on this formula in early 2006. However, the two presidents
failed to reach any agreements during face-to-face negotiations held
in February and June 2006. They reportedly disagreed on the timetable
for Armenian troop withdrawal and the timing of the proposed referendum
on Karabakh’s status.

The mediators have since come up with a number of new, unpublicized
proposals aimed at breaking the impasse. Washington’s chief Karabakh
negotiator, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Matthew Bryza, said
in Yerevan on September 17 that the parties are "close" to cutting
a framework peace deal and simply need to sort out "the last couple
of issues" (RFE/RL Armenia Report, September 17). Kocharian likewise
noted in Brussels that Armenian-Azerbaijani peace talks have made
substantial progress that can be built upon after the 2008 elections.

His foreign minister, Vartan Oskanian, insisted in an October 3
speech at the UN General Assembly that the parties are "inching
towards resolution" (Azg, October 5).

What precisely keeps them from making the final step toward peace
remains unclear. Bryza warned that Aliyev’s and Kocharian’s failure
to meet each other again this year would raise questions about their
commitment to mutual compromise. He said, "If they don’t say yes,
then you’ll wonder, ‘What are they thinking in the back of their
mind? What are their plans? Are they really fully committed to reaching
an agreement’?" (RFE/RL Armenia Report, September 17).

Even though official Yerevan has repeatedly praised the Minsk
Group’s peace plan, Kocharian clearly wants to leave it to his likely
successor, Prime Minister Serge Sarkisian, to shoulder responsibility
for accepting a deal denounced as a sellout by Armenian nationalist
circles. The Azerbaijani government’s position is even more
ambiguous. While agreeing to the proposed settlement in principle,
Aliyev and other Azerbaijani leaders have repeatedly made it clear
that they will never accept Karabakh’s secession from Azerbaijan.

However, the Minsk Group plan does allow for international
recognition of that secession. It is extremely unlikely that
Karabakh’s predominantly Armenian population would vote to return
under Azerbaijani rule in the would-be referendum.

What the prospects for Karabakh peace will be after the Armenian
and Azerbaijani elections is far from clear. The sense of urgency to
eliminate the number one obstacle to stability in the South Caucasus
may well diminish on both sides. Azerbaijan, for one thing, feels that
time is working against the Armenian side. The Azerbaijani government
has pledged to spend its soaring oil revenues on a massive military
build-up that it hopes will change the balance of forces and enable
it to win back Karabakh.

While Armenia can no longer keep pace with Azerbaijan in terms
of defense spending, it can capitalize on close military ties
with Russia, which is hardly interested in any change in the
Karabakh status quo. Sarkisian, for example, declared last year
that the Armenian military received in 2006 a "considerable amount"
of Russian weapons that give it "superiority over any adversary in
some specific areas." He expressed hope that Russia will deliver more
"state-of-the-art weaponry" Armenia’s armed forces (Arminfo, December
27, 2006).

Also, the Armenian leadership and much of the country’s broader
political elite do not regard Karabakh peace as a necessary condition
for economic development. Armenia’s economic growth has averaged 13%
since 2001 and looks set to remain strong in the coming years. The
macroeconomic performance regularly draws praise from the World Bank
and the International Monetary Fund.

All of which suggests that the Karabakh conflict may well remain
unresolved in the foreseeable future without more forceful and
high-level international mediation. The intensifying arms race between
Armenia and Azerbaijan could further complicate the search for peace
and increase chances of another Armenian-Azerbaijani war, which are
slim at the moment.