ARMENIA UNDER STATE OF EMERGENCY
By Asbed Kotchikian
ISN
March 4 2008
Switzerland
The Armenian government’s use of force to stop protests could reveal
its insecurity and boost the opposition’s resolve, Asbed Kotchikian
writes for ISN Security Watch.
In the early morning hours of 1 March, residents of the Armenian
capital of Yerevan woke up to the news that the state security
agencies had dispersed demonstrators gathered in Freedom Square,
with reports in the ensuing hours relating the consequences of the
states unexpected use of force.
The crackdown came almost 10 days after the hotly disputed presidential
elections that resulted in the overwhelming victory of the state
supported candidate and current prime minister, Serge Sargsian, with
over 53 percent of the votes. His main rival, former president Levon
Ter-Petrossian, received just above 21 percent of the votes.
While the international community considered the elections a done
deal based on reports by monitors from the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), the local opposition demanded an
annulment of the elections, citing major violations and fraud.
What followed was a call by Ter-Petrossian to hold continuous and
peaceful demonstrations until the authorities conceded and held
new elections. While the number of people participating in the
demonstrations was not extremely large (reports from local media
and observers put estimates anywhere between 20,000 to 100,000),
the protests were the largest Yerevan has seen in the last 10 years.
The government’s initial response was to ignore the demonstrations and
continue with business as usual. This position was further encouraged
as Sargsian received support from the international community in the
form of election monitor reports as well as congratulatory messages
from Washington and Moscow.
Sargsian also managed to win the support of local political figures by
striking a deal with Arthur Baghdasarian, a former speaker of the house
who had earlier broken ranks with Sargsian to run for president. He
received 16 percent of the votes in February’s elections. Many analysts
have argued that Baghdasarian had always been Sargsian’s protege
and that run attempt at the presidency was actually orchestrated by
Sargsian in order to steal votes from Ter-Petrossian.
A day before riot police and internal security forces violently
dispersed the demonstrators, Baghdasarian met with Sargsian and
announced that he recognized him as Armenia’s legitimate president
and would be willing to cooperate with him to handle "domestic and
external challenges" Armenia Liberty news service reported.
The local news media then focused on a statement read by Baghdasarian
in which he mentioned that he had been offered and had accepted
the mostly ceremonial position of secretary of Armenia’s National
Security Council.
It is highly conceivable that the realignment of Baghdasarian with
Sargsian gave the latter more confidence to give the orders to disperse
the demonstrators the following day.
In the subsequent gatherings on Saturday afternoon, many of the
demonstrators chanted "Arthur, traitor," signaling their discontent
with Baghdasarian’s move to join Sargsian.
Witnesses in Yerevan told ISN Security Watch by telephone that early
on the morning of 1 March, internal security forces and riot police
surrounded the demonstrators, who had spent the night at Freedom
Square, and after giving them only a five-minute warning to leave the
area, used heavy force to disperse them. Most of the demonstrators
were caught by surprise, and what ensued was chaotic.
Ter-Petrossian, who had also spent the night at the square, was
surrounded by police forces and escorted to his residence just outside
of the city center.
Immediately after the dispersal of the demonstrators, the crowd
gathered at another square near the French Embassy. According to one
witness who spoke to ISN Security Watch on condition on anonymity,
on Saturday morning there were close to several hundred demonstrators
at the new location. However, in a matter of a couple of hours,
as many as 10,000 had joined the protest.
The new venue was again surrounded by riot police. Largely because of
the absence of a strong leadership calling for calm, clashes escalated
between the police and the protesters. It was at this point that
President Robert Kocharian announced a 20-day state of emergency in
Yerevan, banning "strikes, public rallies, demonstrations, marches
and other mass events," and more significantly, censoring all media
reports and limiting them to "official information of state bodies."
With Ter-Petrossian was confined to his house by authorities
(according to official statements he was not put under house arrest
but was isolated for his own safety) there were very few opposition
leaders able to calm the crowd. During most of the evening of 1 March
there were violent clashes between some radical elements among the
demonstrators and the police, resulting in hundreds of casualties
and at least seven deaths.
Polarization One witness in Yerevan told ISN Security Watch: "Saturday
night was surreal. At one intersection one could see events unfolding
with characteristics of a revolution, while a few blocks up the street
people were walking their dogs, taking their dates home and eating
at restaurants as if nothing was happening."
This observation illustrates the extent of popular apathy and could
indicate that Armenia is not, as many observers and experts have
considered, on the verge of a colorful revolution as happened in
Ukraine and Georgia, where there were elements of overwhelming popular
mobilization and foreign – specifically western – support.
The current Armenian opposition has neither, and as such is bound to
develop in ways dissimilar to these colorful revolutions.
Even before the announcement of the state of emergency and media
blackout, the local media was polarized.
On the one hand, official media sources disregarded any and all
reports about demonstrations, which immediately before the 1 March
events had spread to the northern cities of Gyumri and Vanatzor.
On the other hand, opposition media (mostly print and online) were
calling for the continuation of the demonstrations and reporting
arrests and provocations by the authorities.
It was ironic that on 2 and 3 March the Armenian media spent more
time covering the Russian presidential elections than they did the
events in their own capital. As such, the residents of Yerevan found
it necessary to rely on outside news sources to learn about what was
happening in their own city.
Only one television media source, Yerkir Media – affiliated with the
Armenian Revolutionary Federation (ARF) party and whose candidate
Vahan Hovannisian came in a distant fourth with 6 percent of the
votes in the presidential elections – offered limited coverage of
the demonstrations, mostly without commentary.
The ARF is the only major political party in Armenia that has not,
until now, taken sides. While admitting defeat, the ARF did not
congratulate Sargsian on his win, and in the very few official
announcements that the party released, its officials called for calm
and blamed Ter-Petrossian for polarizing the country.
This perhaps was a direct result of the stark rivalry between
Ter-Petrossian and the ARF during the former’s tenure as president
when he banned the ARF from operating in Armenia, claiming that the
party was planning a coup d’etat.
Tense calm An interesting issue related to the makeup of the
demonstrators was that according to many interviews conducted by ISN
Security Watch, most of the demonstrators were not Ter-Petrossian
supporters. Some of them were even staunch opponents of the former
president.
However, with the absence of any other viable opposition leader,
Ter-Petrossian became a de facto representative of civil society and
youth movements, including a sizeable section of Armenians who in the
last decade or so have become frustrated with the current government’s
socio-political and economic policies.
The Armenian capital has been in a state of tense calm since Sunday,
and while the demonstrators are currently dispersed and internal
security forces are stationed all over the capital, the opposition
has vowed that after the end of state of emergency later this month,
they will take to the streets once again. Meanwhile, the international
community has been trying to mediate in an attempt to find a permanent
solution to the crisis.
In an overall mood of apathy, the main question remains if in 20-days
time Ter-Petrossian will be able to mobilize enough people to continue
his demonstrations.
In the meantime, the foundation has been laid for behind-the-scenes
negotiations for which both the government and Ter-Petrossian will
attempt to "recruit" as many allies as possible.
With Sargsian already having secured the support of Baghdasarian
ahead of his officially taking over from Kocharian on 9 April, he
seems to be ahead of his political rival by calling for all sides to
join his government with the promise of various posts and positions
to be awarded for loyalty.
With a media blackout in place, state-controlled television showed
President Kocharian visiting some of the injured policemen at the
hospital with minimum comments about the situation and mostly criticism
of Ter-Petrossian and his alleged role in the fomenting the unrest.
The only source of independent (although biased) news remains the
various blogs maintained by individuals in Armenia and a handful
of international news agencies that have limited access to properly
assess the situation in the country.
Twenty days is a long time in the life of political movements, and
it is very possible that the demonstrators will lose their momentum.
Ironically, the authorities could have achieved the goal of dispersing
the demonstrations by simply ignoring them. In situations like these,
the use of force could be an indicator of government insecurity
and could increase the resolve of the opposition to continue with
their demands.
Asbed Kotchikian is the Assistant Director of International Affairs
Program at Florida State University and specializes in the politics
of identity as well as political processes in the South Caucasus and
the Middle East.