Author: Hunanian Jack

TALKS FOR THE CAUCASUS PACT UNDERWAY
By Saban Kardas

Eurasia Daily Monitor
Sept 2 2008
DC

Turkey’s shuttle diplomacy to manage the aftermath of the conflict
in Georgia has kept Turkish foreign policy in the spotlight. During
a series of visits to Tbilisi, Moscow, and Baku in the first half
of August, Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan revealed Ankara’s
proposal for a Caucasian Stability and Cooperation Platform, which
would aspire to bring together Turkey, Russia, Azerbaijan, Georgia,
and Armenia. On receiving an initial green light from the regional
countries, Turkish diplomats and Foreign Minister Ali Babacan have
been holding working meetings with their counterparts.

Since Erdogan aired this proposal, the senior partners, Turkey and
Russia, have worked out the details of the project. Babacan earlier
had a phone conversation with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov
on August 22. A Turkish delegation visited Moscow on August 26 to
work on Turkey’s proposals, but neither party disclosed the details
(Radikal, August 26). Lavrov is visiting Istanbul on September 2 to
discuss bilateral relations as well as the pact. In the meantime,
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov visited Ankara on
August 29, and Georgian Foreign Minister Eka Tkeshelashvili visited
Istanbul on August 31. The Armenian foreign minister and president
had already welcomed Turkey’s proposal. After weeks of speculation
and criticism from the opposition, sources in Ankara expect Turkish
President Abdullah Gul to visit Armenia this week for a soccer game
(Radikal, September 2). President Gul and his delegation will extend an
official invitation to Armenia to join the proposed pact. The Armenian
President is visiting Russia today in anticipation of Gul visit
( =detay&link=151898&bolum=102).

The content of the pact will be shaped following these meetings, but
proposals vary from boosting economic cooperation to developing crisis
management mechanisms similar to the OSCE in Europe. The underlying
goal is to create conditions for stability and peace through regional
cooperation, which resonates well with the government’s new foreign
policy agenda of projecting Turkey as an indispensable peace broker
in the region. Domestically, the initiative reflects cooperation
between Turkey’s key offices.

Turkey seems determined to use this crisis as an opportunity to find
long-lasting solutions for the region’s stalemated conflicts and
to boost peace. The means to this end is through deepener economic
interdependence among the countries by creating interlocking channels
in various important areas, including energy, transportation, and
infrastructure. Because the region is already beset with perennial
bilateral problems, a multilateral initiative such as this could
in theory provide a new platform to achieve a breakthrough in these
protracted problems.

The key to realizing the project is for the regional countries to set
aside their differences. Russia continues its occupation of Georgia,
while Armenia’s occupation of Karabakh poisons its relations with
Azerbaijan and Turkey. In the meantime, a Turkish-Russian trade
dispute has been accelerating into a serious crisis. The visits of
the Azerbaijani and Georgian foreign ministers already demonstrated
that their support for the project is heavily conditional on obtaining
clear guarantees on issues vital to them, and they remain reluctant
at best. Most importantly, Tkeshelashvili’s visit particularly
underlined the lack of trust between the would-be partners. While
Turkey’s proposal assumes that the Caucasian countries could develop a
local security regime, it stresses that a broader initiative including
European powers is also needed. Short of such a solution, Turkey is
worried that this initiative could justify Russia’s near abroad policy
(NTV, September 1).

This creates a difficult predicament: As long as the major regional
power is seen as the aggressor, the smaller countries will seek
powerful external arbiters. Ironically, Russia’s attempt to curb
outside involvement in its near abroad lies at the heart of the
crisis. Since Turkey will not be able on its own to give assurances
to Georgia, the viability of the project is in question. Turkish
analysts have also questioned whether an initiative excluding Iran
could survive as well (Ihsan Dagi in Today’s Zaman, August 25).

Let alone assuring smaller countries in a closed regional arrangement,
Turkey’s ability to withstand the pressures from a resurgent Russia
is dubious. So far, Turkey has followed an ambivalent policy and
has avoided taking sides. Turkey did not forcefully protest Russia’s
recognition of Georgia’s breakaway regions, due to its dependence on
Russia for energy supplies and trade, which worried Westerners that
Ankara might abandon the West. Erdogan acknowledged this dependence,
which made a balanced policy between the United States and Russia
necessary, and drew attention to Turkey’s attempts to diversify its
energy supplies (Milliyet, September 2).

Turkey’s acquiescent attitude toward Russia, however, received
criticism at home. The insensitivity of Russia to Turkey’s concerns in
the trade dispute especially led Turkish analysts to argue that Turkey
might slowly realize the dangers involved and reassert its place
in the Western camp. Chief of Staff Ilker Basbug’s recent remarks
about the importance of the Turkish-U.S. alliance are seen as the
strongest indicator of such realignment on Turkey’s part (Milliyet,
August 31). Russian President Dmitry Medvedev’s announcement of new
pillars of Russian foreign policy only increases these worries. Veteran
analyst Sami Kohen sees it as Russia’s challenge to the uni-polar world
order and attempt to translate Russian economic power into political
influence. In particular, he expects Russia to capitalize on its
monopoly of energy resources and bully the West European countries so
that it can divide them and legitimize its fait accompli (Milliyet,
September 2).

Even if these broader goals fail, Turkey, on its part, sees the
Caucasus initiative as a way of solving bilateral problems with
Armenia. In return for being acknowledged by Moscow as a mediator
in the Russia-Georgia dispute, Ankara expects Russia in turn to
use its influence over Armenia (Today’s Zaman, August 30). The
resolution of the conundrum, however, comes down to whether Armenia
will reciprocate. With the current status quo favoring Armenia,
it remains to be seen how far it will back down in its lingering
dispute with Azerbaijan and Turkey.

ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA MAY BECOME FULL MEMBERS OF CSTO

arminfo
2008-08-27 14:17:00

ArmInfo. ‘Recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia as allies of
Russia in CSTO will be discussed at the forthcoming meeting CSTO
member-states, of course’, a reliable source from the Organization
says, Russia Media report.

‘If all the CSTO signatories recognize these states, their membership
will become just a matter of time’, he said. CSTO documents stipulate
for admission of new members. ‘They in Sukhumi and Tskhinvali are
well aware that they will be able to secure their independence only
under collective security system>, he said.

US ANALYST PREDICTS CHANGES IN OSCE`S MEDIATING GROUP

AzerNews Weekly, Azerbaijan
Aug 27 2008

The developments in Georgia have shown that cooperation between Russia
and the United States within the OSCE Minsk Group (MG), as a means
of resolving regional conflicts, is unrealistic, a Washington-based
international expert says.

The MG, co-chaired by Russia, the U.S. and France, has sought
to broker a settlement to the Armenia-Azerbaijan Upper (Nagorno)
Garabagh conflict.

Zeyno Baran, director of the Center for Eurasian Policy at the
Hudson Institute, said the latest military action in Georgia would
substantially affect the positions of both Washington and Moscow in
the MG. She predicted that the MG would undergo changes this fall
after the presidential elections in the U.S.

Russia sent troops to South Ossetia and pounded Georgian positions
on August 8 after Tbilisi launched an offensive to retake the
self-proclaimed, pro-Russian region. A ceasefire was, subsequently,
reached to end five days of deadly fighting.

The Azerbaijan Foreign Ministry spokesman Khazar Ibrahim told the press
Monday that Russia`s estrangement from the OSCE MG is not on agenda.

He recalled that President Ilham Aliyev adheres to a clear-cut stance
on maintaining good neighborliness and friendship relations with the
country`s northern neighbor.

Ibrahim emphasized that Russia is not a party to the Garabagh
conflict. "Therefore, estranging it from co-chairmanship in the MG is
not under consideration. Azerbaijan continues to maintain neighborly
and friendly ties with both Russia and NATO."

PHONES OF SOME SUBSCRIBERS OF "55" AND "57" FIXED PHONE DIGITAL STATIONS TO BE DISCONNECTED ON AUGUST 27 AND 28

Noyan Tapan

Au g 26, 2008

YEREVAN, AUGUST 26, NOYAN TAPAN. Phones of some subscribers of "55" and
"57" fixed phone digital stations will be disconnected from August 27
to 6 pm of August 28 due to the construction of a new highway in the
section of Yerevan’s M. Heratsi-Khorenatsi Streets, NT was informed
by the PR Service of ArmenTel company.

ARMENIA MOVES TO BAN WESTERN UNION

Azeri Press Agency
Aug 25 2008
Azerbaijan

Baku. Nijat Mustafayev – APA-ECONOMICS. Azerbaijan’s central bank has
demanded local banks to halt operations with the world’s top payment
transfer company, Western Union because it stopped providing services
in the Nagorno-Karabakh at the request of Azerbaijan.

Observers said Armenian reacted to Western Union’s decision at
Azerbaijan’s request.

RIA Novosti quoted the central bank as saying Western Union violated
the terms of agreements with Armenian banks by not making available
services to the local banks’ branches in the Nagorno Karbakh.

Illegally occupied by Armenia, the Nagorno Karabakh area is an
internally recognized territory of Azerbaijan.

Azerbaijan’s central bank gave green light to local banks to resume
operations with payment transfer company Western Union and its smaller
peer MoneyGram after the both companies promised to discontinue money
transfer transactions with the occupied territories of Azerbaijan
through Armenia.

Azerbaijan blocked Western Union and MoneyGram on July 30 and renewed
clearance for money transfers through these systems on August 14.

Trend News Agency, Azerbaijan
Aug 22 2008

Turkish and Russian Foreign Ministers Discuss `Caucasus Union’ Initiative
22.08.08 17:28

Azerbaijan, Baku, 22 August / Trend News corr. S.Ilhamgizi / Ali
Babajan, the Turkish Foreign Minister, discussed with Sergey Lavrov,
his Russian counterpart, the establishment of the Caucasus peace and
cooperation platform over telephone on 22 August, the Turkish CNN-Turk
TV channel reported.

According to the TV channel, the ministers exchanged their opinions on
details to establish peace and cooperation organization in the
region. It was decided to hold a joint meeting with the participation
of the Russian and Turkish officials and to discuss in large format
the issue on establishment of the Caucasus Union at this meeting.

The Turkish officials are expected to hold discussions on this matter
with the Armenian Government.

Rejeb Tayyob Erdogan, the Turkish Premier, discussed the initiative of
the Caucasus peace and cooperation platform with the Presidents
Mikheil Saakashvili, of Georgia, Dmitriy Medvedev, of Russia, and
Ilham Aliyev, of Azerbaijan.

ARMENIAN PRESIDENT CONFIDENT IN EFFICIENCY OF CONSOLIDATION OF TAX AND CUSTOMS AGENCIES

ARKA
YEREVAN, August 22.

Armenian President introduced the Chairman of the newly created Public
Revenue Committee Gagik Khachatryan to the management staff of the
tax and customs authorities. Under presidential decree of August 20,
the country’s State Taxation Service and the State Customs Committee
were reorganized into one – Public Revenue Committee.

The presidential press service reported that the President Serzh
Sargsyan expressed confidence in efficiency of the consolidation of
two services if certain changes are made.

"I am confident we will be able to bring the work of the new
committee in line with the current requirements of our economy," the
President said. He stressed the necessity to imArmenian President
introduced the Chairman of the newly created Public Revenue
Committee Gagik Khachatryan to the management staff of the tax and
customs authorities. mediately start the work and perform substantial
changes in the situation and said that people unable to fulfill their
obligations and meet the requirements should make way for others. He
suggested the agencies to make concerted efforts to achieve the goals
set before the Committee.

The President commented on dismissal of Vahram Barseghyan from the
post of the Head of State Taxation Service. As early as on August
1, Barseghyan was warned that appropriate measures will be taken
if no substantial changes are recorded in the work of his agency,
the President said. During the next 20 days no changes were recorded
and no willingness to carry out reforms could be seen, the President
said. -0–

PARLIAMENT OF ARMENIA APPROVES ADDITIONAL FLUSH FROM LAKE SEVAN

arminfo
2008-08-21 15:23:00

ArmInfo. Thursday after long debates the Parliament of Armenia approved
additional flush from Lake Sevan.

Chairman of the State Committee of Water Management, Ministry of
Territorial Administration, Andranik Adreasyan submitted the amendments
to the Program of Restoration, Preservation and Reproduction of Lake
Sevan Ecosystem for consideration of the Armenian Parliament said the
bill was carefully discussed and a consensus was achieved. Thus, the
water release quota was increased to 240 million cubic meters from
170 million cubic. However, due to severe droughts, the government
had to request more flush for agricultural needs. Thus, another 120
million cubic meters (to 360) are required to provide about 200,000
farms with water.

The 90 million cubic meters Aparan water reservoir is full by one-third
and even half of the 70 mln cubic meter Azatek reservoir is not
full. The necessary 100 million cubic meters will be released from
Sevan. Hrazdan River supplies 110 as against 160 million cubic meters
of water. The law will be effective till 1 December 2008. Afterwards
the flush will be reduced to the former 170 million cubic meters.

ANOTHER DEFEAT: NEXT MATCH WITH MOLDAVIANS

Panorama.am
14:10 20/08/2008

On August 19 in Palanga Lithuania, in the first tour friendly match
of Junior Football League Armenian National team (below 17 years)
lost 0:3 to Russians.

The first half of the match ended in draw, but during the second half
Russians recorded victory over our junior team. In another match of
the first group(where actually Armenia is included), the national
junior team of Moldova won the game by beating 5:1 the second team of
Lithuania. By the way, the team of Lithuania could take part in this
competition only because of the fact that the Georgian team refused
to participate in the Junior Football League.

Note that the matches of the second will take place today: our team
is playing with national team of Moldova.

DEBACLE IN GEORGIA

The Washington Times
August 18, 2008 Monday

Russia’s invasion of Georgia is a damaging blow to the prestige and
reputation of the U.S.-led NATO alliance – a major cornerstone of
U.S. military security strategy in Europe since the end of World War
II. The decision by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and the government
he dominates to attack Georgia serves a number of critical Russian
strategic goals.

First, it is a warning to other nations in Europe and the Caucasus that
they put themselves in mortal danger if they seek to join NATO and
align themselves with United States. Target number one is Ukrainian
President Viktor Yushchenko – who like Georgian President Enhanced
Coverage LinkingGeorgian President -Search using: Biographies Plus
News News, Most Recent 60 Days Mikheil Saakashvili Enhanced Coverage
LinkingMikheil Saakashvili -Search using: Biographies Plus News
News, Most Recent 60 Days is the democratically elected leader of a
formerly Soviet-occupied nation and has applied to join NATO. Second,
it is a step toward seizing monopoly control of major energy pipelines
supplying the West which run through Georgia: The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
(BTC) oil pipeline, opened two years ago, which transports oil from
Baku, Azerbaijan, through Georgia to Ceyhan, Turkey, and the South
Caucasus gas pipeline, which runs parallel to the BTC pipeline. Third,
it is part of a longer-range effort to create a sphere of influence
in the former Soviet Union and beyond. Fourth, it is part of a policy
that emboldens Iran by intimidating neighboring states away from
military cooperation with Washington.

Over the past 15 years, Washington has provided close to $2 billion in
military assistance to Georgia, and Tbilisi has sent troops to fight in
Iraq and Afghanistan alongside U.S. forces. Just last month, U.S. and
Georgian military forces conducted two weeks of training in Georgian
territory, while the Russian military conducted exercises of its own
to the north – which virtually mirrored the operation Russia launched
against Georgia in recent days. Yet the U.S. intelligence community was
apparently caught by surprise when Russia launched its blitzkrieg –
an invasion that has gone well beyond the stated aim of protecting
residents of South Ossetia from the Georgian government. Russian
troops have driven to within 20 miles of Tbilisi and have bombed the
BTC pipeline – located more than 50 miles from South Ossetia.

In April, Washington, joined by Eastern European countries, pushed
to invite Georgia and Ukraine into joining NATO. But thanks largely
to opposition from France and Germany, the effort failed, and it is
unclear whether things will be any different in the near future. In
recent days, there has been an undertone of complaints from European
officials suggesting that "rash" behavior from Georgia provoked Russia
– thereby vindicating French and German opposition to admitting Georgia
and Ukraine into the alliance. It would be difficult to imagine a more
intellectually dishonest reading of the situation. While Georgia’s
recent behavior in South Ossetia has been far from perfect, Heritage
Foundation scholar Ariel Cohen notes that Moscow has been planning a
land invasion of Georgia for at least two-and-a-half years. Its goal
has been to topple Mr. Saakashvili – or better yet, to create so much
hardship for the Georgian people that they oust Mr. Saakashvili in
favor of someone who would do Russia’s bidding.

One of the most disturbing aspects of Russia’s attack is the threat
it poses to the flow of energy to American allies in Western Europe
and Israel. The BTC pipeline was advocated by President Clinton and
the current President Bush as a way to make the Caucasus states of
Georgia, Azerbaijan and Armenia less dependent on Russia and Iran
by linking them economically with the West. As The Washington Times
reported last week, at least three other major energy pipelines now
under consideration in the region face greater difficulties in the
wake of the Russian invasion, which could well scare off oil companies
and investors. "If what is happening now had happened in 1996, the
BTC pipeline would not have been built," Mr. Cohen told The Times.

Russia’s invasion of Georgia serves yet another purpose: protecting its
ally Iran. Moscow has long sought to deny the United States airfields,
bases and other forms of cooperation from Georgia and Azerbaijan which
could be used in a military operation against Iran. At the same time,
Moscow is expected to deploy S-300 long-range anti-aircraft missiles
in Iran next year – greatly complicating any military strike against
Iranian nuclear-weapons facilities.

One bit of good news is the fact that, following Russia’s move
into Georgia, Poland moved to defy Russia by signing a missile
defense agreement with the United States. That is a step in the
right direction. But NATO will not remain a viable alliance if small
democracies like Georgia are left twisting in the wind while France
and Germany are congratulating themselves for their cravenness. For
starters, Georgia and Ukraine should be admitted to NATO sooner rather
than later.