SO MUCH FOR THOSE COLOR REVOLUTIONS
By Bruce Sterling
Wired News
r-tho.html
March 5 2008
"Managed democracies" in the former USSR like to rig or steal
elections. This used to be a great pretext for the opposition to
send the cheated populace into the streets in some ’89-style "people
power." The "color revolutions," orange, rose, etc, were examples
of this.
Regimes are now aware of this problem and take preventive measures. In
Armenia the police crushed protesters in the streets, then shut down
the press. In Russia, the regime crushes street rallies, then rallies
its own people-power and besieges the embassy of the paymaster of
color-revolutionaries, the USA.
TRANSCAUCASUS AND CENTRAL ASIA
ARMENIAN POLICE USE FORCE TO DISPERSE POSTELECTION PROTEST, KILLING
EIGHT. Police, security forces, and Interior Ministry troops cordoned
off Freedom Square in central Yerevan at around 7 a.m. local time on
March 1 and then proceeded to disperse several thousand supporters
of former President Levon Ter-Petrossian encamped there to protest
the perceived rigging of the outcome of the February 19 presidential
ballot to ensure a victory for the candidate of the "party of power,"
Prime Minister Serzh Sarkisian.
Police used truncheons, tear gas, and electric stun guns, (don’t
tase me, bro) RFE/RL’s Armenian Service reported. Some demonstrators
fought back, ignoring appeals by Ter-Petrossian to remain calm. Police
spokesman Sayat Shirinian told journalists later on March 1 that the
previous day the protest organizers distributed "large quantities" of
metal bars and firearms to the protesters, reportedly in preparation
for "actions aimed at provoking mass riots" on March 1. He added
that police arrested "more than a dozen" opposition activists and
were searching for others.
Ter-Petrossian supporters driven out of Freedom Square early on
March 1 regrouped later that day at a major traffic junction close
to Yerevan City Hall and the French Embassy, RFE/RL’s Armenian
Service reported. As of early evening, some 10,000-15,000 people
had congregated in anticipation that Ter-Petrossian would come to
address them.
Police reportedly fired tracer bullets over the demonstrators’ heads
and tear gas into the crowd; some protesters then attacked police
with iron bars and stones. Most protesters dispersed after an appeal
from Ter-Petrossian to do so was read out, but a small number went
on a rampage, setting fire to police and other vehicles, and looting
a nearby supermarket, RFE/RL’s Armenian Service reported.
In a March 2 statement posted on its website (),
the Armenian Health Ministry reported that 131 people were injured
on March 1 of whom 42 — 14 police and security personnel and 28
protesters — were hospitalized. It said no fatalities were reported
in the period between 6 a.m. and 9:30 p.m. local time on March 1,
but that between 9:30 p.m. on March 1 and 1 a.m. on March 2 —
meaning after the state of emergency was declared — 89 people, 58
law enforcement personnel and 31 civilians, were injured and eight
people died of gunshot wounds. LF
ARMENIAN PRESIDENT IMPOSES STATE OF EMERGENCY, RESTRICTIONS ON MEDIA.
Following reports of the new flare-up of violence between police and
protesters during the evening of March 1, Robert Kocharian issued
a decree imposing a 20-day state of emergency in Yerevan in order to
"prevent the danger threatening constitutional order and to protest the
rights and legal interests of the population," Noyan Tapan reported.
The state of emergency entails a ban on meetings, rallies,
demonstrations, and strikes; on "leaflets and other political
propaganda without the permission of state bodies"; and on publishing
any reports on domestic political developments except those put out
by government agencies.
It further entails the temporary suspension of the activities
of political parties and organizations that seek to prevent the
elimination of the circumstances that necessitated imposing the state
of emergency; and if required, restrictions on the free movement
of persons and vehicles through the city. The Armenian parliament on
March 2 formally endorsed the state of emergency and issued a statement
condemning the previous day’s clashes as unconstitutional and blaming
them on the deliberate and "hostile" actions of Ter-Petrossian’s
supporters, gazeta.ru reported.
The statement stressed the need for "restoring order" in Yerevan and
"resolving political problems by means of dialogue and on the basis
of the constitution." In an address to the Armenian people on March 1,
Kocharian explained his rationale for imposing the state of emergency,
accusing Ter-Petrossian’s supporters of having accumulated arms and
ammunition in public places and of holding unauthorized rallies,
Noyan Tapan reported.
Kocharian said Ter-Petrossian refused to accept the official results
of the February 19 election and continued to "dispute the outcome
by illegal means," even though a recount of votes failed to reveal
"serious violations." He said opposition representatives "behaved
disgracefully" in Yerevan earlier that day and thereby threatened
national security, as well as tarnishing Armenia’s international
reputation. Addressing students at Yerevan State University on February
29, Kocharian said the authorities intend to "wait patiently" until
the "theatrical show" being staged by Ter-Petrossian supporters of
Freedom Square "fades away calmly," Noyan Tapan reported.
He said he hoped Ter-Petrossian would face up to reality, ask his
supporters to disperse, and return to his historical research, and
warned that if, on the contrary, they attack police, they will find
themselves "outside the law," and many of the protest organizers will
face "years in prison." LF
HOW WILL AFTERMATH OF CRACKDOWN IMPACT ARMENIAN POLITICS? (Well, it
certainly makes the Turks look good by comparison, which is bound to
be a little grating.)
By Richard Giragosian
Most statesmen, presidents and prime ministers alike, tend to devote
the last days and weeks of their time in office to forging a lasting
legacy of political accomplishment and leadership. But for Armenian
President Robert Kocharian, who is due to relinquish power next month
to his prime minister, Serzh Sarkisian, his legacy is now irrevocably
marred by his imposition of a state of emergency, complete with
bans on the freedoms of assembly and speech coupled with sweeping
media censorship, in response to an internal political crisis that
has cost at least eight lives. That decision can only compound his
already entrenched unpopularity.
To be fair, Kocharian introduced a state of emergency in response
to one of the most serious threats he has faced in his decade
as president. After several opposition candidates either rejected
outright, or called into doubt, the official results of the February
19 presidential ballot, which gave Sarkisian over 52 percent of the
vote, the Armenian authorities came under increasing pressure from
the street tens of thousands of supporters of defeated challenger
and former President Levon Ter-Petrossian attended public rallies
and demonstrations in central Yerevan for several days.
Those daily opposition demonstrations, bolstered by nightly vigils
by students camped out in tents on Liberty Square, combined with the
opposition’s steadfast rejection of the election results, clearly
unnerved the authorities and took them by surprise, even though the
opposition’s tactics were neither especially violent nor directly
confrontational.
After 11 days of escalating tension, the Armenian authorities
apparently decided that the best way to end the crisis was to confront
the challenge head on. In the early morning hours of Saturday, March 1,
Armenian police units, backed by more heavily armed security forces,
were ordered to disperse the opposition demonstrators from Liberty
Square. The presence during that operation of both Yerevan police chief
Nerses Nazarian and Grisha Sarkisian, the president’s personal head
of security, only served to underscore its tactical importance and
may have emboldened some police units to adopt especially aggressive
tactics.
The security forces, equipped with truncheons, tear gas, and electric
stun guns, forcibly dispersed the roughly 2,000 demonstrators from
the square, driving them from their tents with little or no warning.
Throughout the potentially dangerous confrontation, Ter-Petrossian
urged his followers to remain calm and refrain from any violent
resistance. After an operation lasting only about 30 minutes,
police effectively ended the protests, leaving several dozen young
protesters injured.
In a subsequent defense of their action, police officials noted that
the demonstrations were illegal and continued despite previous warnings
and appeals by the authorities — including by Kocharian himself on
February 26 — for participants to disperse.
The action was successful in clearing the main square and taking
control over a key opposition venue, with the area quickly secured
and police conducting mass arrests before carting off the tents
and banners of the demonstrators. Several of the most prominent
opposition figures were initially detained but quickly released,
although Ter-Petrossian was escorted from the scene and placed under
virtual house arrest by his own state-assigned security detail.
Even after the loss of the main square as a central focal point
and the brief detention of its leadership, the opposition quickly
regrouped, with several thousand demonstrators gathering at a main
intersection near the French Embassy and opposite the municipal
government building. In large part as a reaction to the harsh methods
of the police and security forces earlier that morning, the atmosphere
became increasingly tense by mid-afternoon, as the roughly 15,000
demonstrators turned large buses and vehicles into barricades.
Although the most effective way to handle such a situation would
have been to simply contain the demonstration in order to allow the
tension to dissipate, police and security forces were instead hurriedly
ordered to the scene and instructed to display a strong show of force.
Police and demonstrators soon clashed after police fired tracer rounds
into the air, followed by several tear gas volleys into the crowd. This
triggered an immediate and intense response, as some demonstrators
hurled rocks and Molotov cocktails at police while others set fire
to police vehicles.
In Ter-Petrossian’s absence, other opposition leaders were unable
to restrain the crowd as clashes escalated further, resulting
in injuries on both sides. Armen Martirosian, a lawmaker from the
opposition Zharangutiun (Heritage) Party, was stabbed by several men
after he intervened to protect an injured police officer from a group
of attackers.
President Kocharian reacted by imposing a 20-day state of emergency,
effectively allowing him to call out the army to quell the violence.
Although the deployment of armored personnel carriers and light tanks
into the city center was the first visible sign of martial law, it
was a telephone call by Ter-Petrossian to his supporters ordering
them to return to their homes that finally defused the clash.
Looking beyond the immediate aftermath from the crisis, the most
pressing challenge is to chart the middle ground toward compromise.
Although both the authorities and opposition can claim varying degrees
of success, the reality of Armenia’s post-election crisis suggests
that both sides lost.
For the Armenian authorities, regaining control and retaking the
momentum from the opposition came at a heavy price. Their handling of
the crisis demonstrates the difference between ruling and governing
a country, and has clearly exposed a dangerous lack of legitimacy
and revealed the fragility of the rule of law. (Why not follow the
Russian model and have the spies take over the country? Oh wait… no
oil wells.)
For Kocharian personally, the crisis has also magnified his
unpopularity and possibly even ended any thought of continuing
his political career. (The question arises as to whether Kocharian
deliberately provoked disproportionate violence and then imposed
a state of emergency to contain it solely in order to demonstrate
that he is the sole figure capable of preventing political chaos,
thereby seeking to substantiate his implicit claim to the post of
prime minister. If so, he miscalculated badly.)
For the opposition, the crisis has also revealed a fundamental
shortcoming far more serious than the temporary restrictions imposed
by the current state of emergency. Although Ter-Petrossian was able
to leverage both public discontent and antigovernment sentiment into
mass public protests, the opposition, even at the height of its
displays of public support, lacked a political party structure or
organization. Despite Ter-Petrossian’s repeated claims that a major
shift has taken place over the past four or five months in Armenians’
collective political consciousness, the protests were more a mass
movement than a firmly-rooted political campaign. The lack of a formal
party structure makes it even more difficult for Ter-Petrossian and the
parties that back him to negotiate a compromise with the authorities.
Finally, it will be especially hard for the Armenian people to forgive,
and even harder to forget, the events of the past few days.
Even though there are no clear winners from this post-election crisis,
the biggest losers have been the Armenian people.
Meanwhile, in Russia, petrocratic champion of international law
and order…
MOSCOW POLICE STIFLE ATTEMPTED MARCH OF DISSENT PROTEST. Police
prevented the Other Russia coalition on March 3 from holding
a March of Dissent action in Moscow to protest the previous
day’s election of First Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev as
president, RFE/RL’s Russian Service and other media reported the
same day. Several hundred people gathered for the unsanctioned
march, but police cracked down with overwhelming force. Union
of Rightist Forces leader Nikita Belykh was among the dozens
of demonstrators detained by the authorities. (Video of
the demonstration and the police reaction can be seen at
080303190310803.html).
In St. Petersburg, some 1,000 activists participated in a sanctioned
demonstration at which no violence was reported. Speakers at the
rally called Medvedev’s election "shameful" and "illegitimate,"
while the crowd chanted, "We are not slaves" and "Your elections
are a farce." National Bolshevik Party leader Eduard Limonov told
the crowd that "our generation will prove [its courage] yet again by
showing resistance to this unjust regime," "The St. Petersburg Times"
reported on March 4. RC
PRO-KREMLIN YOUTHS MARCH ON U.S. EMBASSY. "The Moscow Times" reported
on March 4 that about 5,500 young people linked to the pro-Kremlin
Nashi movement marched on the U.S. Embassy on March 3 to celebrate
the election of Deputy Prime Minister Medvedev as president and
to protest U.S. foreign policy and alleged interference in Russian
internal affairs.
The daily noted that "Moscow authorities have repeatedly refused to
authorize opposition marches on the grounds that they would snarl
traffic and inconvenience people. But with the city’s blessing,
thousands of pro-Kremlin youths marched across central Moscow on
Monday — and created some of the worst traffic jams ever seen
in the capital." The paper reported that neither the police nor
representatives of the city government were willing to say why Nashi
received a permit to demonstrate while opposition groups did not. PM
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