Author: Hovhannisian John

Negotiations in Washington Armenia-Azerbaijan

“After a three-day negotiating marathon in Washington, at least some document should be published. Because this is the second such marathon in the United States, and if this time, as after the first similar negotiations, there is no signed statement, no serious agreements are reached, this could lead to the anger of Washington,” Natig Jafarli said of the talks starting today in Washington by Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia.

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“We expect negotiations to start on Tuesday and continue until Thursday this week.

Secretary Blinken will be meeting with the Foreign Ministers of Azerbaijan and Armenia, and we will have more details during the week. We continue to believe that peace is within reach, and direct dialogue is the key to resolving outstanding issues and achieving a sustainable and dignified world,” US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller said during a briefing.

“It is necessary to publish at least the theses of the “road map” of integration”

“After a three-day negotiating marathon in Washington, at least some document should be published. Because this is the second such marathon in the United States, and if this time, as after the first similar negotiations, there is no signed statement, no serious agreements are reached, this could lead to the anger of Washington,” Natik Jafarli said.

According to him, so far it is clear that Armenia is hindering the achievement of agreements:

“Companies in this country are already subject to sanctions because of Russian assistance, but if Armenia interferes with peace, it may face even more serious pressure.”

Jafarli called the situation around Khankendi (Stepanakert) and the issue of integration and security of the Armenian population of Karabakh the weak point of Azerbaijan in the negotiations:

“After the end of the victorious 44-day war, we repeatedly publicly appealed to the government with a warning that we were late with this issue, we should at least publish the theses of the integration roadmap. If the authorities want to resolve this issue without changing anything, we may face unfair pressure in a situation in which we are absolutely fair.

The roadmap should include changes to the Constitution, local self-government, the creation of an elected mayor, the transformation of 14 economic regions into administrative-territorial units, fair elections and the election of a government in parliament. In a word, fundamental reforms.

There is no other way, with the delay of time this issue will not be resolved by itself. And fundamental reforms can open up new prospects for our country.”

“It has to happen either in Washington or in Brussels”

According to political scientist and head of the Atlas analytical center Elkhan Shahinoglu, Moscow now has no prospects for real mediation:

“If progress is made in the negotiations and the parties get closer to signing a peace treaty, this should happen either in Washington or in Brussels.

While the Kremlin is preoccupied with its own problems, the parties are obliged to make maximum use of the mediation services of the United States and the European Union. This is in favor of both Azerbaijan and Armenia.”

Negotiations in Washington Armenia-Azerbaijan

“The rhetoric of the parties towards each other has not changed much”

“It is still too early to talk about reaching a final peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Despite the progress in the negotiation process, the rhetoric of the parties towards each other has not changed much,” political observer Agshin Kerimov said.

“We must take into account the fact that Armenia in our region is an instrument in the hands of others, and plans for it are not divorced from the historical context. There may be some changes in strategic plans, but historical goals remain an obstacle to reaching a peace agreement.

Even if Baku and Yerevan agree on a common denominator, I don’t think the tension will subside. The big forces that exist in our region are more focused on the principle of “govern in a safe way” and not on the general welfare of the countries of the region.”

“Azerbaijan’s main goal is to remove obstacles to a peace treaty”

Before the talks in Washington, Deputy Speaker of the Armenian Parliament Ruben Rubinyan talked about three conditions for signing a peace treaty with Azerbaijan:

* Fixing a specific map taken as the basis for the countries’ recognition of each other’s territorial integrity.

* Solving the problem of the rights and security of the [Armenian] population of Karabakh.

* Introduction of guarantees for the fulfillment of the agreement between Yerevan and Baku.

“We must pay tribute to Rubinyan. So far, he is the only one in the leadership of Armenia who can clearly formulate Armenia’s negotiating position,” political observer Farhad Mammadov said, commenting on the words of the vice-speaker of the Armenian parliament.

“All this, of course, is relevant for negotiations, but it is already clear that without resolving open issues on Armenia’s involvement in the internal affairs of Azerbaijan (the remnants of the Armenian Armed Forces in Karabakh, resource support and the rejection of slanderous activity on international platforms), all of these topics have no prospects for constructive solutions.

I think Azerbaijan’s main goal is to remove obstacles to a peace treaty. Armenia still has a chance to constructively approach the process of leveling obstacles.”

Negotiations in Washington Armenia-Azerbaijan

https://jam-news.net/negotiations-in-washington-armenia-azerbaijan/

Construction of a new nuclear plant in Armenia

Armenia plans to build a new nuclear power plant by 2036. Which country will be the energy partner for this project is not yet clear. Cooperation with Russia, the USA and other countries is being discussed. According to the prime minister, the government is studying proposals to understand “which option is more economically viable.”

In 2022 Armenia and Russia signed an interstate agreement to build a power unit with a capacity of 1000-1200 megawatts. But in professional circles they talk about a preference for small modular reactors, which the United States proposes to build.

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According to the Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures Gnel Sanosyan, there is a lot of work to be done:

“About two years is needed for preparatory work, from 8 to 10 years for construction.”

According to him, it is necessary to understand what capacity the new nuclear power plant should have, and this must be decided by taking into account many factors – not for a short period, but for the next 100 years.

“For example, we must calculate how much electricity we will supply to Iran, whether we will supply it or not, whether we will supply electricity to Georgia. We need to understand what the relations between Armenia and Turkey will be like, whether Turkey will buy electricity from Armenia, because now the eastern regions of Turkey need it,” he said.

According to Sanosyan, it is also necessary to calculate volumes of local consumption to find out what kind of dependence on nuclear power plants is entailed.

The construction of a new power unit was first discussed with Russia, in particular with the Rosatom corporation. Russian partners have proposed the construction of a power unit with a capacity of 1000 or 1200 megawatts and there are already preliminary estimates of profitability and a working group that deals with preparatory issues.

Recently it became known that the United States is proposing the construction of small modular reactors. This proposal has not yet been studied from a technical point of view, it may take several months. The Minister of Territorial Administration and Infrastructures assured that by the end of the year the Armenian government would “decide on the issue of capacity.”

UN National Energy Expert in Armenia Ara Marjanyan recalls that, according to the agreement signed with Russia in 2022, it is planned to develop a roadmap within a year to determine the type of reactor and technical parameters.

“Construction will begin at the end of 2024 – beginning of 2025. The construction of a nuclear power unit will cost about 3-5 billion dollars. I think that these are reasonable expenses, Armenia needs to constantly have nuclear generation on its territory,” he told reporters.

“In the near future a delegation from Armenia will travel to the United States to learn more about the possibilities of modular nuclear power plants on site,” the Prime Minister of Armenia said at the end of May.

Pashinyan said that the capacity of modular NPPs is less, for example 70 megawatts, while the capacity of the current one is 400 megawatts:

“Other proposals are problematic for us because they offer a 1,000 megawatt nuclear power plant. And experts say that we have problems with the inclusion of such a powerful station in our energy system.”

According to him, the government intends to develop the nuclear potential of Armenia and “is very actively negotiating with Russia, the United States and third countries.”

Suren Bznuni, a specialist in nuclear and radiation safety, considers the existence of an “economic justification” and safety issues to be the most important condition for the construction of a nuclear power plant.

He says that it is necessary to build a safe and economically profitable reactor, regardless of whether it is Russian or American. A nuclear power plant with a capacity of 1,000 or more megawatts, in his opinion, will be problematic for Armenia in terms of grid stability.

“Discussing the issue with experts, we came to the conclusion that we need a nuclear power plant with approximately the same capacity as we have now. Large reactors are not attractive from the point of view of high cost, as well as from the point of view of obtaining a large amount of electricity in the future,” he opined.

Small modular reactors, according to Bznuni, can be built as much as there is demand at the moment:

“A high-capacity reactor costs $6 billion, usually during construction costs increase, reaching up to $7 billion. In some countries, the amount has doubled. And the modular reactor costs $500 million, which is quite an acceptable amount for Armenia.”

Energy security expert Artur Avetisyan claims that small modular reactors have an “unprecedented high degree of safety.” And the advantages of such reactors have already been convinced both in the USA and Great Britain, France and other countries.

Avetisyan talks about the political motivation for building a new nuclear power plant. According to him, it consists in joining global energy projects. And with this in mind, the new nuclear power plant should be more powerful than the current one, which will allow Armenia to “have a dominant position in the region”:

“For example, in the northern regions of Iran there is a fairly large demand for electricity in summer, in the southern regions of the Russian Federation – in winter. Buying this electricity in Armenia is more profitable than building new stations.”

Avetisyan does not exclude even the implementation of ambitious projects in the future. For example, he considers it possible to supply electricity produced in Armenia to Europe via cables along the bottom of the Black Sea:

“If we say, let’s build a small nuclear power plant, a big one is not for us, this already means that we are saying to our society: we are a small player, we cannot pretend to be a serious player.”

https://jam-news.net/construction-of-a-new-nuclear-plant-in-armenia/

Armenia’s independence and relations with Russia

Novaya Gazeta Europe published the opinion of the Secretary of the Security Council of Armenia, Armen Grigoryan, on issues of concern to the country’s society.Journalist Jan Shenkman asked Grigoryan questions about the problems between Armenia and Russia, the presence of the Russian military in Karabakh, “which is no longer a factor of stability”, why the Pashinyan government is “so indecisive and cannot choose between Russia and the West”, and how the confrontation in Karabakh will end.

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– There is nothing strange here. In recent years the security architecture in the world and in our region has changed dramatically. Before, everything was clear and understandable. We thought that it would be possible to call on the phone and say: “I have a problem.” In response, they would say: “Okay, my friend, we will help.” We have tried and seen that this mechanism does not work. Contractual obligations are not respected. Our whole security concept was built on this, but there is no new one yet.

The mechanisms that were supposed to ensure the security of Armenia have collapsed, new ones have not been created. This is the crisis.

We need to look for new mechanisms and arms supplies, because objectively we do not get what we ordered and paid Russia for. The 2021 contract for hundreds of millions of dollars, which is still not closed, is not the only one. There are several such contracts. And we also expected from the CSTO that it would work in September last year during the direct aggression of Azerbaijan on Armenian territory. It didn’t work and so on.

– You are right in some ways, not in others. Shelling and provocations occur not only when we are negotiating with the West.

In 2018, when the revolution took place in Armenia, we said that this is an internal democratic process, it will not influence foreign policy. And we continued to work with Russia, but this did not guarantee us security: we got the war of 2020.

Another example. In 2013, President Serzh Sargsyan decided to join the Customs Union, which later became known as the EAEU. He was given to understand that if he did not do this, there would be problems in Nagorno-Karabakh. The main argument for joining the Union for Sargsyan was the security of Karabakh. After that we got two wars. April 2016 and September 2020.

– Yes, there is such a danger. In fact, there are many vulnerabilities. We need to diversify the economy, but we cannot do it overnight.

So far, there is only one way to preserve sovereignty and prevent interference in the internal affairs of Armenia – these are the democratic institutions that we have managed to build.

– A complete reform of the security structures is needed to curb any intelligence activity. We must ensure that our institutions serve only Armenia.

Right now we cannot interfere, but in the future we can and will do it. By the way, everyone remembers that until recently Russian border guards were sitting at the Zvartnots airport, and now Armenian border guards are also sitting. So, there is progress. But sovereignty is a long way to go. You can’t wake up one day and be completely independent.

Even if you are in a hurry, it is impossible to change the sequence of actions. It has to e step by step.

We honestly admit that we do not yet have a solution, but we are looking for it. We have a chance, an opportunity. But there are no guarantees.

– Since the beginning of December 2022, Armenia has been saying on all international platforms that Azerbaijan has plans for ethnic cleansing in Karabakh. Let’s see who has the ability to prevent them. First, the peacekeeping forces of the Russian Federation, which are located in Nagorno-Karabakh. Moreover, under the 2020 agreements, they are obliged to do so. But they don’t.

You understand the tragedy of the situation: Russian peacekeepers are in Karabakh, and people are talking about the threat of ethnic cleansing. They have no hope of being rescued.

The second chance is the international community. Armenia has long been lobbying to send an international observation mission to Karabakh. At least observant.

– Unrecognized, but the international community is committed to preventing genocide wherever it happens.

– It was until recently. Now the mood has changed under the influence of circumstances. This is a very interesting topic. Russia began to treat Armenia worse because after the revolution a pro-Western party came to power.

Can such a huge country like Russia change its geopolitical plans and rebuild its strategy because of the changes in the leadership of Armenia?

There are no pro-Western sentiments in Nagorno-Karabakh. No Soros. Instead of NATO – the Russian peacekeeping contingent. And yet there are anti-Russian sentiments. Why do you think? Because of Russia itself, not because of the West. Russia shapes the attitude towards itself.

– But this is already happening, gas is already flowing within the framework of the existing infrastructures. I don’t think that’s the issue, or at least not only that.

In any case, Armenia will never agree to an extraterritorial corridor through its territory. For us, this is a red line.

– What if there is a war?

– Then there is a war.

https://jam-news.net/armenias-independence-and-relations-with-russia/