Aravot , Armenia
May 8 2018
The most important victory is still ahead
by Ruben Mehrabyan
[Armenian News note: the below is translated from the Russian edition of Armenia’s Aravot]
Today, on 8 May, there are all conditions to allow our country to nail down one of the most important phases of the peaceful revolution, making clear the path of our state’s further development.
‘Long, difficult journey’ awaiting new Armenian government
It is apparent that this is definitely a long and difficult journey, as the crisis has hit the whole social and state management system. This is going to be a government [formed by newly-elected Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan], which is sitting on a mine, as it not only has no majority in the National Assembly [Parliament], but it is going to have to deal with a majority [of the former ruling Republican Party of Armenia – RPA], which refused to make concessions until the last moment, when it became convinced that resistance was senseless. And this was not a one-off mistake, but an incorrigible methodology. In other words, at further stages, extremely heavyweight arguments will be needed [to prove] the futility of searching an “alternative”. And early parliamentary elections are the next important stage. Their conduct and results should raise no doubts. [As a result of the elections,] a majority will take shape and it will form the government. Indeed, even in this case, it will be wrong to draw a conclusion that the crisis has been resolved.
One thing is evident: New Armenian leaders have and will have many sympathisers, but no allies. Armenia and the Armenian nation are sure to receive words of praise and admiration, but this is not going to be binding for anyone. There is only one path for the new government to follow to be a success: This is the path of a “resolute loner”. And progress made on the path will turn it, as well as our state, into an ally for many.
Armenia needs new foreign policy
Indeed, because of the crisis, we have found ourselves in a situation, where foreign policy will become a more important factor for our security in the time to come than even our Armed Forces, which by no means diminishes our Army’s very special role, as [analyst with the Regional Studies Centre] Davit Shahnazaryan has seasonably emphasised. The thing is that without early parliamentary elections, it is impossible to speak about capitalisation on the results of the revolution. Likewise, without a qualitatively new foreign policy, which should become a derivate and continuation of a qualitatively new domestic policy, it will be impossible to speak about foreign political capitalisation and international self-actualisation of a new Armenia, which is a daunting task.
I would like to reiterate: On this path, we have many sympathisers, but no allies. Apart from this, we encounter an understandable indifference on the part of many and we are sure to encounter this in the future, too, as well as less understandable apathy on the part of some, no matter how often they say that “no geopolitical issue is on the agenda”. The complex of abnormal relations, which has been established over the past few years and which is based on the corrupt logic, has made Armenia quite vulnerable and we not only reaped its consequences in the past, but will be reaping them for a rather long time to come. It is at the foreign political and security policy levels, where the declared principle of no room for monopolies in Armenia can be introduced.
The steps, which have been taken, are necessary at present. However, they are not going to be sufficient in the future to help Armenia to avoid external interference in these dramatic days and in addition to this, to be honoured with greetings from Moscow, Brussels, and Washington and to receive congratulation from a conditional [former Georgian President] Mikheil Saakashvili, conditional [ethnic Armenian editor of the Russia Today international network] Margarita Simonyan, and conditional [Russian opposition leader] Alexei Navalny. And although no-one in the Republic Square [in Armenian capital Yerevan, where massive rallies were staged] even thought of “exporting the revolution”, the Armenian revolution has already begun “living its own life” outside Armenia and no matter how pleasing this may be to our ambition, this is sure to turn into a new challenge for the Armenian government at the same time. In post-Soviet authoritarian countries, the Armenian tricolour has turned into a symbol of protest, which we witnessed during the protest rallies in more than 90 Russian cities on Saturday [5 May], and a symbol of disturbances for the “guards” of authoritarian regimes.
‘Poisonous’ reaction from Russia
The reality is that in the Russian Empire, Armenians repeatedly rose in arms for freedom. In 1905, Armenians were led away and embroiled in confrontations with Caucasian Tatars [Azerbaijanis] and pogroms. In 1988, [they were embroiled] in a conflict with Azerbaijan and again pogroms to be followed by a large-scale war. However, by 2018, hardly anything has remained of this “gunpowder” and the Kremlin has little choice but to prudently regard the general will of the Armenian nation. Of course, there can be no talk about sympathy, just interests, even in real politics. This is evident from the poisonous reaction, which allegedly comes from “unofficial” [TV] channels in the shape of “private opinions”, although it is clear that in the public field, which was imbedded in concrete by Putin, there can be nothing “private” or “personal”. It does not matter how promptly the Russian Embassy [in Armenia] makes a statement on official Moscow’s non-involvement, while even the Union of Armenians of Russia feels indignant at the statements regarding Armenia and Armenians by [Mikhail Leontyev, who made insulting comments on Armenia on the radio] the vice president of the Rosneft oil company, a monopolist in Russia and Armenia, which comes within the provisions of the criminal legislation of the Russian Federation proper.
Armenian government to ensure return of Armenians from Russia
This is certainly an understandable attitude on the part of Russian imperial circles. Russia is rocked and will be rocked by protests, which in many respects creates a vulnerable situation for hundreds of thousands of Armenians living there. Russia’s historic experience has shown that during major disturbances, it is local non-Russians – Armenians, Georgians, Poles, Jews, and Latvians, who come to the fore. But afterwards, irrespective of the result, this brings new bondage to their motherlands and to them proper. And the Armenian youths in Russia, who deeply sympathise with the movement developing in Armenia, as well as those staging peace protests in Russian cities, should rather remain neutral and loyal to the Russian state. This implies distancing themselves from supporting the imperial policy and repressions on the state’s part, which a number of Armenians are engaged in, as well as resisting the temptation of turning into the “Armenian factor” of protest rallies, no matter how often protesters may chant “We want like in Armenia!”
It is clear that Russia is not Armenia and that “like in Armenia” is not going to happen there and that instead, it will be as this has always been: Absurd and cruel, to cite a Russian classical author [Pushkin]. And Armenians might prove to be in the role of targets. As well-known Russian commentator Anton Orekh said, the distance between Moscow and Yerevan is no longer than 1,800 kilometres and the same number of light years. And the new Armenian government should take urgent steps to ensure their repatriation, as this is already a matter of national security. And on the basis of the Diaspora Ministry a new structure should be formed: The Diaspora, Repatriation, and Absorption Ministry, creating respective infrastructure to meet the challenges of learning the Armenian language and Armenian legislation, job placement or assistance in organising businesses. Experience of the kind has been used in Poland, Greece, Israel, and Germany. And of course, the organisation named Fellow Countrymen should literally be “cleansed” in Armenia, as it does not and cannot have any “fellow countrymen” here.
However, we will discuss this later. But today, citizens of Armenia will take part in rallies wearing while shirts… The day of tomorrow – the day of liberation of Shushi [Susa, a city in Azerbaijan’s breakaway Nagorno-Karabakh], the day of victory over Fascism, Europe Day, and the birthday of the Artsakh defence army – will come bringing great hopes. Over the recent days, the Armenian people have won something an no monument will be erected in its honour and this will not be a memorial to fallen heroes and martyrs, where people will lay wreaths and bunches of flowers in even numbers [as envisioned by the tradition when taking flowers to deceased people], observing a minute of silence in tribute to their memory… No! They will bring odd numbers of flowers, smiling, laughing, and feeling proud, and will leave the place to carry on constructive work of Armenian citizens. We have had the honour of this. However, the most important victory is still ahead and this will become the victory of us all. May God help us.