Author: Hakobian Adrine

THE TRILATERAL DECLARATION AS ASSESSED BY ARMENIAN POLITICAL FORCES
Nvard Davtyan

"Radiolur"
03.11.2008 17:49

On November 2 the Presidents of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia held a
trilateral meeting in Moscow. As a result of the negotiations the three
Presidents signed a declaration, which states that there is no format
for talks other than the OSCE Minsk Group, the military solution to
the issue is non-perspective and the negotiations should be continued
on the basis of free will of the parties. This is how representatives
of all the coalition forces assess yesterday’s meeting in Moscow.

Spokesman for the Republican Party of Armenia, MP Edward Sharmazanov
notes that the resoluteness to continue the negotiations in the Minsk
Group format provided for in the document disappoints all those who
were insisting that Serzh Sargsyan was recently working to involve
Turkey in the process as mediator.

According to the Secretary of the Prosperous Party of Armenia Aram
Safaryan, the signing of the declaration marked the continuation of
the negotiation process within the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group,
exclusion of the use of force and resolution of the issue on the
basis of the will of parties.

Head of the ARF Dashnaktsutyun faction Vahan Hovhannisyan sees elements
of his pre-election platform in the declaration. The question refers
to the signing of an agreement on non-application of force, which
Dashnaktsutyun was speaking about. The negotiations will continue in
the direction of peaceful resolution of the issue. Vahan Hovhannisyan
considers that the continuation of discussions in the Minsk Group
format is our diplomatic victory. All other kinds of mediation,
discussions of the issue in other instances are already secondary.

The head of the ARF faction noted, however, that it’s negative that
Nagorno Karabakh does not participate in the talks. "The future
involvement of Karabakh is the negotiations in not provided for. But
I think that our future steps can emphasize this as a necessity."

Vice-President of the Orinats Yerkir Party Heghine Bisharyan assesses
the signing of the declaration as an important and daring step for
the resolution of the Nagorno Karabakh issue.

"The provisions of the declaration envisage that the meetings will
continue, there will be dialogue between the two countries, which will
provide an opportunity to refer to those issues, which resulted in
today’s conflict. As far as I understand the issue can be solved only
via mutual concessions, because both countries have their approaches.

It’s quite possible that Azerbaijan will change its position as a
result of dialogue," Heghine Bisharyan considers.

Head of the "Heritage" faction, the only parliamentary opposition
force, Armen Martirosyan said the issue has not been discussed in the
faction. "I think there are many points to be discussed connected
with both Madrid Principles and legal issues. The activeness will
not reduce, but I don’t what to predict what it will result in."

As for the non-parliamentary opposition, Levon Ter-Petrosyan’s Press
Secretary Arman Musinyan said the issues is still being discussed
and their position will be announced within the coming days.

Earthtimes (press release), UK
Nov 2 2008

Presidents agree peaceful solution to Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Posted : Sun, 02 Nov 2008 15:18:07 GMT
Author : DPA

Moscow – The presidents of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan have agreed
to a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in light of
the recent war in Georgia. A declaration on calming the situation in
the south Caucasus was signed by the presidents of the three countries
Sunday in Moscow, the Interfax news agency cited the Kremlin as
saying.

Russian President Dmitri Medvedev had invited Armenian President Serge
Sarkisian and Azerbaijani colleague Ilkham Aliyev to Moscow for
negotiations over the issue.

According to the declaration, it was incumbent upon the parties to
follow international law in finding a solution to the conflict between
Armenia, Azerbaijan, and the breakaway region of Nagorno- Karabakh
following the August war in Georgia over its regions of South Ossetia
and Abkhazia.

Nagorno-Karabakh, which like South Ossetia and Abkhazia is seeking
independence, has throughout the 20th century been claimed by both
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The conflict broke out in 1988 when the Nagorno-Karabakh, inhabited
mainly by ethnic Armenians, pulled out of the Soviet Republic of
Azerbaijan. The region saw bloody conflicts between ethnic Armenians
and Azerbaijanis when the entity declared itself a republic and
Azerbaijan lost control over the region.

A fragile ceasefire has been in place since 1994. The so-called Minsk
Group of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe
(OSCE) has been acting as a moderator in the conflict, and the three
presidents on Sunday agreed a close cooperation with the Minsk Group.

October 31, 2008
Press Release
Western Prelacy of the Armenian Apostolic Church of America
H.E. Archbishop Moushegh Mardirossian, Prelate
6252 Honolulu Avenue
La Crescenta, CA 91214
Tel: (818) 248-7737
Fax: (818) 248-7745
E-mail: [email protected]
Website:

PRELATE TO CELEBRATE DIVINE LITURGY ON THE
NAME DAY OF HOLY MARTYRS CHURCH

On Saturday, November 1st, the Armenian Church will celebrate All
Saints’ Day, which is also the name day of Holy Martyrs Church of Encino.
On this occasion, H.E. Archbishop Moushegh Mardirossian, Prelate,
will celebrate Divine Liturgy, deliver the sermon, and preside over the
blessing of madagh at Holy Martyrs Church on Sunday, November 2nd.
Very Rev. Fr. Barthev Gulumian and Rev. Fr. Razmig Khatchadourian
will assist at the altar.
During Divine Liturgy, the Prelate will bestow the honor of bearing
a stole on acolytes Toukhman Khatchadourian and Hovig Keushgerian in
commendation of their service.
The blessing of madagh will take place immediately following Divine
Liturgy at "Avedissian" Hall.
The 45th anniversary of Holy Martyrs Church will be celebrated on
Friday, November 7th, at "Deukmejian" Hall of Ararat Home in Mission Hills.
The banquet has been organized by the Pastor, Board of Trustees, and 45th
anniversary committee.

4TH ANNUAL ORIENTAL ORTHODOX SUNDAY SCHOOLS SPIRITUAL GATHERING

On Saturday, November 1st, the 4th annual spiritual gathering of
Oriental Orthodox Sunday School students is scheduled to take place at St.
Mary’s Church in Glendale, under the auspices of and with the participation
of the Prelates of the Armenian, Coptic, and Syriac Churches.
The theme for this year’s gathering is "Christian Education:
Home-Church Connection".
The gathering will begin with Divine Liturgy celebrated by Very Rev.
Fr. Barthev Gulumian, during which the Prelates will deliver their message
and remarks to the students. Following the service, the students will
assemble in the hall for their workshops and presentations.
The gathering will conclude with the Lord’s Prayer.

PRELATE WELCOMES HAMAZKAYIN ANI DANCE COMPANY COMMITTEE MEMBERS

On the morning of Friday, October 31st, H.E. Archbishop Moushegh
Mardirossian, Prelate, welcomed to the Prelacy Hamazkayin ANI Dance Company
Committee members. The delegation consisted of artistic directors Mrs. Suzy
Barseghian-Tarpinian and Mr. Yeghia Hasholian, Chairman Mr. Markar
Mardirossian, Vice-Chairman Mr. Missak Terzian, and Secretary Mrs. Maral
Bekerian. Christian Education Co-Director Very Rev. Fr. Barthev Gulumian
also attended the meeting.
The meeting began with the delegation congratulating the Prelate on
his re-election, following which they spoke of their future activities
including the 35th anniversary of the dance company which they will
celebrate next October. The members also extended an invitation to the
Prelate for their upcoming events.
The Prelate commended the efforts of the ANI Dance Company in
preserving and enhancing our culture and traditions and conveyed his wishes
of success for all their future endeavors, expressing hope that he would be
able to attend their upcoming events.
The meeting concluded with the exchange of mementos.

PRELATES OF CANADA AND ALEPPO VISIT THE PRELACY

On Wednesday, October 29th, H.E. Archbishop Moushegh Mardirossian,
Prelate, welcomed to the Prelacy H.E. Archbishop Khagaj Hagopian, Prelate of
Canada, and H.G. Bishop Shahan Sarkissian, Prelate of Aleppo, both of whom
are in Los Angeles for a brief visit.
The three Prelates discussed the recent and upcoming activities of
their respective Prelacies, including the 50th anniversary celebration of
the North American Prelacy and the 35th anniversary of the Western Prelacy.
The guest Prelates were then familiarized with the various departments of
the Prelacy and the work that is carried out by those departments and by the
committees serving within the Prelacy. The Prelate then bid the guest
Prelates farewell and conveyed his wishes for success in their service and
endeavors.

PRELATE WELCOMES ARMENIAN EVANGELICAL WORLD COUNCIL PRESIDENT REV. HAROUTUNE
SELIMIAN

On the morning of Wednesday, October 29th, H.E. Archbishop Moushegh
Mardirossian, Prelate, welcomed to the Prelacy the newly elected president
of the Armenian Evangelical World Council and president of the Armenian
Evangelical Community in Syria Rev. Haroutune Selimian. The Reverend was
accompanied by treasurer of the Armenian Evangelical Union Mr. Zaven
Khanjian.
H.E. Archbishop Khajag Hagopian, Prelate of Canada, H.G. Bishop
Shahan Sarkissian, Prelate of Aleppo, and Christian Education Co-Director
Very Rev. Fr. Barthev Gulumian were also in attendance.
The meeting offered the opportunity for both parties to become more
familiarized with the endeavors of the other. The Prelate acquainted Rev.
Selimian with the varied work that is carried out by the Prelacy and its
churches, schools, and the number of committees serving under its auspices,
while Rev. Selimian communicated to the Prelate the activities and mission
of the Armenian Evangelical Church in Syria.
The Prelate congratulated Rev. Selimian on his recent election as
president of the Arm. Evangelical World Council, wishing him success in his
new post, and presented him with a memento.

"YEAR OF CHRISTIAN EDUCATION"
LECTURE SERIES CONTINUES

The "Year of Christian Education" lecture series continued on the
evening of Wednesday, October 29th, at St. Mary’s Church, with pastor of
Forty Martyrs Church Rev. Fr. Hrant Yeretzian lecturing on "Patriarch Hovhan
Mantagouni’s Discourse on the Sacrament of Holy Communtion".
Welcoming remarks were delivered by Master of Ceremonies Rev. Fr.
Vazken Atmajian, following which he invited Rev. Yeretzian to present his
lecture.
Concluding remarks were offered by Very Rev. Fr. Muron Aznikian on
behalf of the Prelate.

HOMENETMEN LOS ANGELES CHAPTER 40TH ANNIVERSARY

The Los Angeles Chapter of Homenetmen will celebrate its 40th
anniversary on the evening of Saturday, November 1st, with a banquet to be
held at the hall of the Glendale "Ararat" Chapter. The banquet is being
held under the auspices of the Homenetmen Regional Executive.
Archpriest Fr. Vicken Vassilian will represent the Prelate and
convey his blessings.

Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia meet in Moscow

2008-11-01 11:11:00

ArmInfo. Foreign Ministers of Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia Edward
Nalbandyan, Elmar Mammedyarov and Sergey Lavrov met in Moscow.

Armenian Foreign Ministry Department for Information and Press reports
the ministers met to prepare the meeting of Armenian, Azerbaijani and
Russian Presidents Serzh Sargsyan, Ilham Aliyev and Dmitry Medvedev
scheduled for 2 November in Moscow.

WPS Agency, Russia
What the Papers Say Weekly Review (Russia)
October 27, 2008 Monday

RISK IS ALWAYS INTERMEDIARY’S

ASPIRING TO BROKER THE DIALOGUE BETWEEN YEREVAN AND BAKU, DMITRY
MEDVEDEV RUNS A CERTAIN RISK; Russia offers itself as a broker in the
Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict.

President Dmitry Medvedev made his first official visit to Armenia and
met with his counterpart Serj Sargsjan. Medvedev and Sargsjan
discussed Russian-Armenian economic cooperation and international
affairs.

The situation in the Caucasus is different from what it was before the
August events in South Ossetia. First, Georgian military aggression
against South Ossetia and recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by
Russia showed pointlessness of attempts to solve ethnic conflicts by
sheer strength. Second, American military and political resources
failed to live up to Georgia’s expectations (it had counted on a
solution to its problems). Third, Turkey is emerging as another
instrumental player in matters of regional security. No wonder
Russian-Armenian contacts are so frequent these days. Medvedev’s
negotiations with Sargsjan in Yerevan became their fifth meeting this
year.

Delicate parity of forces and interests in the triangle formed by
Moscow, Yerevan, and Baku does not allow for the assumption that the
dialogue between Russia and Armenia is directed against Azerbaijan. On
the contrary, it was announced during the talks in Yerevan that the
Karabakh conflict should be settled on the basis of compromises and
talks. Medvedev said at the press conference that a meeting between
three presidents was to be arranged in the near future. "I hope it
will take place in Russia," Medvedev said.

Azerbaijan has been expecting it ever since President Ilham Aliyev’s
visit to Moscow not long ago where restoration of the dialogue between
Baku and Yerevan was discussed. This is not Moscow’s first attempt to
broker Azerbaijani-Armenian conflict settlement. Some experts assume
that the concerned parties must be considering some new scenario of
conflict settlement. "I’m not going to elaborate on nuances because
they are nuances which is what makes them so valuable," Medvedev said
in Yerevan. It apparently means that participants in the conflict are
disappointed in the OSCE Minsk Group and resolved to find a solution
on their own.

The conflict affects both countries. Baku is compelled to execute
complicated political and diplomatic maneuvers to enlist world powers’
support for its territorial integrity. As for Armenia, it is
essentially in an economic blockade. By and large, the conflict
impedes development of both Azerbaijan and Armenia.

It is necessary to find a solution that will stabilize the situation
rather than upset it. Doing so is going to be enormously difficult
because the involved states and all sorts of intermediaries have
seemingly discussed all plausible variants over the years.

Dialogues between Yerevan and Moscow on the one hand and Baku and
Ankara on the other may result in appearance of another
"irritant". Should these four capitals opt for a common economic,
political, and cultural zone, it may enable them to approach the
problem at hand from a different direction altogether.

In a word, Medvedev is running a certain risk as the broker between
Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Source: Rossiiskiye Vesti, No 37, October, 2008, p. 1

ARMENIAN NA SPEAKER GETS ACQUAINTED WITH THE WORK OF THE PARIAMENTARY AD HOC COMMISSION

ARMENPRESS
Oct 29, 2008

YEREVAN, OCTOBER 29, ARMENPRESS: Armenian National Assembly speaker
Hovik Abrahamian met today on his initiative with the members of the
parliamentary ad hoc commission set up for the inquiry into March
1-2 events in Yerevan to get acquainted with the carried out work
and issues the commission is facing.

The chairman of the commission Samvel Nikoyan noted that they have
many expectations from the National Assembly, speaker and political
forces. He noted that during these months each member of the commission
felt on his/her skin the heavy burden and even that helpless situation
in which they appeared from all the sides – blows from each side,
criticism, negative attitude. He thanked his partners for "standing
above everything".

Referring to the main activity of the commission, he informed that
they have singled out the March 1 morning events and events which
took place near the French embassy.

"We have all the necessary documents connected with March 1 morning
events, we have information and the commission in that respect is
ready to present its approaches but as far as a fact finding group is
going to be created the commission found it purposeful to wait in any
case as it is possible that as a result of the activity of the group
a fact will be disclosed and a concern may raise that the commission
omitted that fact on purpose," Nikoyan clarified.

According to him, there are enough facts connected with the events
near the French embassy and at present one of the main issues of
the commission is to study the circumstances of the death of ten
people. S. Nikoyan said that even the investigative bodies do not
have answers to many questions.

S. Nikoyan assured that the commission will continue acting publicly
as "our word will be directed to our public and our goal is that
our report be accepted by the majority of the people." He also
informed that the commission created task groups which must study
the circumstances of each case of death. Members of the commission
also expressed their viewpoints connected with the works.

Summing up the meeting, the NA speaker noted that March 1-2 events more
negatively affected on the authorities. He underscored the disclosing
of the truth. "Starting with the president, we all want to find out
the truth and present it to the public," Hovik Abrahamian said adding
that he is ready to support the commission within his possibiities.

DENIAL IS NOT A CRIMINAL MATTER
Geoffrey Alderman

Jewish Chronicle

Oct 30 2008
UK

Legislating against deniers of the Holocaust is part of a dangerous
trend.

In its issue of October 3, the JC ran the story of the arrest, at
Heathrow airport on an EU warrant issued by the German government, of
a German-born Holocaust-denier, Frederick Toben. Mr Toben is actually
an Australian citizen. No matter; he arrived at Heathrow from the USA,
en route to Dubai. The Metropolitan Police arrested him because the
German government alleges that he has persisted in posting material on
the internet denying or "playing down" the Nazi Holocaust of the Jews.

In 1999, Mr Toben served a term of imprisonment in Germany after
publishing pamphlets denying that mass murders of Jews were carried
out at Auschwitz. Following his appearance before London magistrates
earlier this month, a spokesperson for the Community Security Trust
was quoted as having praised the action of the British authorities
in executing the EU warrant and as having expressed the hope "that
the German law will take its course".

I hope that nothing of the kind befalls Mr Toben. I hope that the
extradition warrant is quashed, so that Mr Toben is once again free to
roam the world denying the Holocaust to his heart’s content. I also
hope that not only will this kind of incident never happen again in
this country, but that the British government will demand that German
(and Austrian) laws criminalising Holocaust-denial are repealed at
the earliest possible moment.

A great deal has been written in the press about Toben’s disgraceful
treatment. My fellow JC columnist Melanie Phillips has rightly
condemned this treatment as a denial of free speech. On October
10, Anshel Pfeffer correctly argued in the JC that prosecuting
Holocaust-deniers is a waste of money, serving only to give these
odious cretins the attention they crave. With all of this I heartily
agree. But my worries about the Toben case go much deeper.

My worries have to do with the alarming tendency of nation-states to
criminalise the past and, in particular, with a wretched proposal
now under consideration by the European Union, to compel EU member
states to enforce particular interpretations of history under the
guise of "combating racism and xenophobia". This proposal emanates
(surprise, surprise!) from the German government, whose justice
minister apparently wants to bring about a state of affairs in which
"publicly condoning, denying or grossly trivialising crimes of
genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes" would, throughout
the EU, be punishable by between one and three years’ imprisonment.

Ask yourself how such a mad law might be enforced, and with what
result. Ask yourself who will decide whether a particular historical
event amounts to a "genocide". Ask yourself by what grotesque
yardstick a trivialisation of, say, a war crime amounts to a "gross"
trivialisation.

But as you begin to answer these questions, bear the following in
mind. In Turkey, it is currently a criminal offence to assert that
Ottoman treatment of the Armenians 90 or so years ago amounted to
genocide. But in Switzerland it is a criminal offence to assert
the precise opposite. In France, in 1995, the distinguished Jewish
historian of the oriental world and of Islam, Bernard Lewis (born
in Stoke Newington and now professor at Princeton University),
was actually convicted for having written an article (in Le Monde)
arguing that, although the Armenians were brutally repressed, this
did not amount to a genocide because the massacres that took place
were neither government-controlled nor sponsored.

As the distinguished British historian Timothy Garton Ash (a professor
at Oxford) recently reminded us in The Guardian (October 16), according
to a French law promulgated in 2001, slavery has been designated
as a crime against humanity. If, while on holiday in France, I am
overheard casually denying that slavery did in fact amount to a crime
against humanity, do I risk being hauled before the French courts? And
if I escape to England will the boys in blue arrest me here on a
French-inspired EU extradition warrant? Or suppose I declare that
the killing of Palestinians at Deir Yassin in 1948 did not actually
amount to a war crime. If the EU proposal were implemented, would
I face imprisonment, just because I had exercised my professional
judgment in a way that upset Arab propagandists?

The task of the historian is to investigate, confront, challenge and,
if necessary, correct society’s collective memory. In this process,
the state ought to have no role whatever, none at all. Certainly
not in the UK, which delights in presenting itself as a bastion of
academic freedom.

MTS AND VODAFONE SIGN STRATEGIC DEAL

Lragir.am
15:21:07 – 30/10/2008

The world’s biggest mobile phone giant, Vodafone and the largest
mobile operator in Russia, MTS has inked a strategic, non-equity deal
to share access to each other’s products and services. MTS would
have exclusive access to Vodafone’s products and services and use
its expertise in building third generation (3G) networks and mobile
broadband products. Under the agreement, MTS has exclusive access to
a range of products, services and devices from Vodafone for Russia,
Ukraine, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and Armenia. MTS has 87 million
subscribers, including 60 million in Russia.

Vodafone’s products and services will be marketed in Russia and
the CIS under a co-branded approach. Vodafone will also open a
representative office in Moscow to co-operate more closely with MTS
on future offerings and customer services.

Vodafone’s Chief Executive, Vittorio Colao said, "Our agreement with
MTS is an opportunity for Vodafone to build its presence and work
with the leading operator in these important markets. By combining
the geographical reach of the company’s respective networks, we can
give customers greater roaming capabilities and extended coverage."

TURKISH AMBASSADOR TO AZERBAIJAN: "TURKEY WILL OPEN BORDERS WITH ARMENIA AFTER THE LATTER WITHDRAWS ITS ARMED FORCES FROM THE OCCUPIED LANDS OF AZERBAIJAN"

Today.az
s/politics/48559.html
Oct 28 2008
Azerbaijan

Turkey will open borders with Armenia after the latter withdraws
its armed forces from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan, said Turkish
ambassador to Azerbaijan Hulusi Kilic, according to Novosti-Azerbaijan.

Commenting on the statement of Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan,
made on Monday during the visit to Nagorno Karabakh, according to which
"the opening of borders between Turkey and Armenia may have a positive
impact on the process of the resolution of Nagorno Karabakh conflict",
Kilic said that "Armenia has no right to put provisions to Turkey in
this issue".

"Turkey closed borders with Armenia on April 4 of 1993 as a sign
of protest against occupation of Nagorno Karabakh and the adjacent
regions of lower Karabakh of Azerbaijan by Armenia. Turkey always
supported the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan and will further
adhere to it", said the Turkish ambassador.

Kilic added that if Armenia intends to establish normal relations with
neighbor states, it must primarily review its occupational policy and
withdraw its occupational forces from the occupied lands of Azerbaijan.

Turan News Agency, Azerbaijan
Oct 23 2008

Azeri experts comment on Russian proposal to mediate Karabakh talks

Baku, 23 October: The intensified mediation efforts of Russia on the
Karabakh resolution is connected with two factors: the change in the
regional situation after the August events in Georgia and the West’s
advancement to the South Caucasus, [former Azerbaijani ambassador to
Russia] Hikmat Hacizada, head of the FAR CENTR Economic and Political
Research Centre, has said in comments on Russian President Dmitriy
Medvedev’s initiative to host a meeting between the leaders of
Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia in early November.

As Hacizada said, the military conflict between Russia and Georgia led
to changes in the regional situation. In particular, Armenia, the
closest ally of Russia in the Caucasus, has actually turned out to be
deprived of the communications with the external world. On the other
hand, the advancement of the West to the east and its presence in
Georgia also compels Russia to become active in preserving its
influence in the region.

Hacizada believes that Russia may propose the liberation of the
occupied districts around Nagornyy Karabakh and the deployment of
Russian peacekeepers there. The issue of the status of Nagornyy
Karabakh will be postponed. Given this, the Karabakh conflict will be
frozen as was the case in Cyprus. However, the West does not want to
let the initiative go either. It will insist on stationing
international forces in the region. Asked if Azerbaijan would agree to
the Russian proposal, the political expert found it difficult to
answer the question.

The head of the public forum For Azerbaijan, Eldar Namazov, says that
it is not only Russia that displays diplomatic activeness in the
region but also other political centres. At the same time, he pointed
to the recent visits of the Turkish president to Armenia and
Azerbaijan, visits of the French and the US co-chairs of the OSCE
Minsk Group and the visit of the US Deputy Assistant Secretary Daniel
Fried to Yerevan last week. All these came after the military conflict
between Russia and Georgia. As a whole, there is a general mood
towards the resolution of the Karabakh problem. "Exactly the
intensification of the activities of many players shows that the
conflict has not been resolved only for the inability of the sides to
agree but also for the lack of major interests of the influential
foreign forces," Namazov said.

Will the worsening relations between the West and Russia hinder
achievement of an agreement on the Karabakh conflict? In reply to this
question, Namazov said that the Karabakh conflict can right be one of
those issues which "can restore the balance of mutual relations
between the West and Russia which has been upset due to the conflict
in Georgia". To what extent is a breakthrough real in the Karabakh
settlement in the near future? Namazov believes that there are
encouraging factors. In particular, the basis for optimism is the
"historic visit" of Turkish President Abdullah Gul to Yerevan and the
arrival of the Russian Northern Fleet vessels in Turkey on a friendly
mission. "That is to say, there take place things which could have
been unimaginable six months ago," said Namazov. At the same time, he
expressed an opinion that the sides to the conflict should not let the
"window of the opportunities" close.

Political expert Zardust Alizada considers that after the events in
South Ossetia, Russia’s international image has been damaged and she
wants to repair it. To this end, Moscow is trying to act in a role of
a peacekeeper in the resolution of the Karabakh conflict. Naturally,
Russia will propose such an option which enables it to keep its
control in the region. To a certain extent, the interests of the
Azerbaijani and Armenian sides would also be satisfied.

At the same time, Russia will try to resolve the problem alone without
the Western partners as was the case in 1994 in Bishkek. At that time,
although the diplomatic efforts of European countries within the
framework of the OSCE Minsk Group, a peace agreement was signed with
formal mediation of the Parliamentary Assembly of the CIS [the
Commonwealth of Independent States] but actually with the
participation of Russia.

Alizada believes that now Russia may propose the vacation of part of
the occupied Azerbaijani lands with postponement of the resolution of
the status of Karabakh, the Lacin corridor and possibly of Kalbacar
District. In exchange for this, Russia may demand the right to station
her peacekeepers in the region.

If Azerbaijan rejects this option, Russia may again say that we
suggested an option for the resolution of the conflict but the sides
did not agree. At the same time, Alizada does not rule out
"gas-for-Karabakh" proposal by Russia.

So in exchange for Azerbaijani gas exports through Russia, it may
agree to pressure Armenia to make it agree to Karabakh’s remaining
under control of Azerbaijan. Given this, Nagornyy Karabakh may be
given a status like the model of the Aland Islands in Finland.

[translated]