Author: Hakobian Adrine

EuroNews, France
Oct 13 2007

Ankara urged to show restraint over militants in Iraq

The US Secretary of State has appealed to Turkey to refrain from any
major military operation in northern Iraq against Kurdish rebels.
This as two senior American officials flew into Ankara to try to
defuse tension after a congressional resolution labelled as genocide
the massacre of Armenians by Ottoman Turks in 1915.

Undersecretary of State for Defence Eric Edelman outlined their
message: "(We are going) to talk to our colleagues in the Turkish
government … first of all to express our regret over the House and
Foreign Affairs Committee vote on HR106, and our determination, as an
administration, to continue to oppose this bill in the congress."

The Turkish government is to seek approval from parliament next week
for an operation against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) militants in
Iraq.

There have already been reports of fighting between Turkish troops
and rebels in mountains in the Turkish province of Sirnak. In the
same province, a Turkish soldier was reported to have died in a mine
explosion near the border with Iraq. The Turkish army says PKK
fighters are now moving further inside Turkey.

ABC Transcripts (Australia)
October 12, 2007 Friday 12:25 PM AEST
SHOW: The World Today 12:25 PM AEST ABC

US congressional resolution angers Turkey

Jennifer Macey

PETER CAVE: Turkey has recalled its ambassador to Washington in
protest at a congressional resolution describing the Ottoman massacre
of Armenians 90 years ago as genocide.

President George Bush says the vote by the Congressional House
Committee could threaten relations with a key NATO (North Atlantic
Treaty Organisation) figure. And senior members of the Turkish
Government are now talking about banning the US military from using
its air bases, which could have a serious impact on US efforts in
Iraq and Afghanistan.

Jennifer Macey reports.

(Sound of protesters chanting)

JENNIFER MACEY: Groups of anti-US demonstrators took to the streets
of Turkey’s main cities on Thursday to protest against the US
resolution, branding the mass killing of Armenians as genocide.

The Turkish Government led its own protest by recalling its
ambassador to the US. Speaking to reporters outside the Turkish
Embassy in Washington, Nabi Sensoy says he is returning to the
capital Ankara for up to 10 days.

NABI SENSOY: This is a normal affair, especially after certain
important developments take place. So, in this case the Turkish
Government decided that I should go back to hold consultations in
Turkey.

JENNIFER MACEY: On Thursday, members of the Congressional House
Foreign Affairs Committee voted in favour of labelling the massacre
of Armenians in 1915 by Ottoman forces as "genocide".

The non-binding vote is the first step towards holding a vote in the
Democrat-controlled House of Representatives. The vote recognises
Armenian claims that up to 1.5-million people were killed in a
systematic campaign to force Armenians out of what is now eastern
Turkey, and it has been welcomed by the President of Armenia, Robert
Kocharian.

ROBERT KOCHARIAN (translated): We hope this process will lead to a
full recognition by the United States of America of the fact of the
Armenian genocide.

JENNIFER MACEY: While Turkey recognises large numbers of people were
killed during World War One and the collapse of the Ottoman Empire,
it denies that genocide took place.

The Turkish President, Abdullah Gul, denounced the resolution as
having no value to the Turkish people. Ambassador Nabi Sensoy again:

NABI SENSOY: People think that it is only the Armenians who perished
during the events of 1915. They keep forgetting that hundreds of
thousands of Turks also perished during the same events in the hands
of the Armenians.

JENNIFER MACEY: The vote has also been criticised by the US President
George W. Bush who had urged the Congress to vote against the
resolution.

GEORGE W. BUSH: This resolution is not the right response to these
historic mass killings and its passage would do great harm to our
relations with a key ally in NATO and in the global war on terror.

JENNIFER MACEY: Turkey is strategically important to the US with the
military depending on Turkish roads and airfields as a base for its
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.

There’s now a very real threat that Turkey may restrict access to the
US military, a threat that Egemen Bagis, the foreign policy adviser
to the Turkish Prime Minister, was willing to air while in
Washington.

EGEMEN BAGIS: Despite our warnings, US Congress wanted to play
hardball. We know how to play hardball as well. There were claims
that Turkey was bluffing, and I can assure you, they should ask
Canada, they should ask France if we do bluff. We don’t.

Since the French Parliament passed the Armenian resolution in their
Lower House, French military aeroplanes have not been given
permission to enter Turkish airspace. I am not saying that might
happen. I am saying there might be consequences, there will be
consequences, I don’t know what those consequences will be.

JENNIFER MACEY: The Congress vote comes at a delicate time in
US-Turkish relations. The Turkish Parliament is considering allowing
its military to pursue Kurdish PKK (Partiya Karkeren Kurdistan)
rebels in Northern Iraq, a move strongly opposed by the US.

Whit Mason is the managing director of the consulting firm, Political
Risk Analysis, and an expert on Turkey. He says this is yet another
diplomatic blow for the country, which is already feeling rebuffed by
the Europeans over their opposition to Turkey joining the EU.

WHIT MASON: It’s not that they would go out of their way to impose
severe sanctions on the US or to come up with an extreme response,
but they have to be sensitive to public opinion, and public opinion
has been radicalised via this feeling that Turkey is being cornered
by the EU and by the US on the PKK issue.

And if yet a third thing were imposed on them, as the Turks would see
it, in the form of this resolution on the Armenian genocide, I think
the Turkish Government would feel obliged to take strong measures.

PETER CAVE: Whit Mason, the managing director of the consulting firm
Political Risk Analysis, ending that report from Jennifer Macey.

168 Zham, Armenia
Oct 12 2007

Armenian foreign minister wants EU to up pressure on Turkey

"Voicing same opinion"

Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan made a sensational
statement at the session of European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs
Committee on 10 October.

He described Azerbaijan’s suggestion to discuss the Nagornyy Karabakh
issue as "totally inappropriate" and announced that Armenia considers
the OSCE Minsk group to be the only appropriate format for the
negations on the conflict. Oskanyan said there that serious prospects
for settling the conflict were identified within the OSCE frameworks
and that only four issues remain uncoordinated from the three-page
document on "core principles" of the conflict’s settlement. Oskanyan
also said that that the leaders of the two countries [Armenia and
Azerbaijan] have not yet managed to reach a mutual accord concerning
these four issues.

However he voiced hope that it is possible to overcome the
disagreements before the February 2008 presidential election in
Armenia. EU Special Representative for the South Caucasus Peter
Semneby made a similar statement in the week of 30 September to 6
October. He said that the situation around the Nagornyy Karabakh
conflict is "fragile" and "risky" and stated that the situation can
change on the threshold of the presidential elections in the two
countries. After Oskanyan made the above mentioned statement,
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov said on 10 October
that Azerbaijan is ready to negotiate "with Nagornyy Karabakh
Armenians, if the official Yerevan recognizes Azerbaijan’s
territorial integrity".

Armenian Foreign Minister Vardan Oskanyan called on European
Parliament Foreign Affairs Committee on 10 October to exert pressure
upon Turkey so that this country opens its border with Armenia and
said that Yerevan does not have any preconditions for settling
relations with Ankara. Oskanyan also called on the European
Parliament’s committee to "exert more pressure" on Turkey, so that
this country starts dialogue with Armenia and said that the blockaded
Armenia is especially interested in Turkey’s opening the border,
which has been closed since the 1990s. According to Radio Liberty
some MPs were "understanding" of Oskanyan’s speech. Oskanyan
criticized EU for "neutrality" around this issue; he said that this
position is understandable, but "inappropriate". "Opening borders is
important not only for Armenia, it is important also for the European
Union, as Turkey is a geographic bridge between the Caucasus and
Europe, the European Union, and without Turkey’s balanced and
unbiased policy concerning our region our relations are not that
efficient as they could be if Turkey and Armenia had regular
relations ", Oskanyan said on 10 October.

The European Parliament’s special representative for the South
Caucasus, Mary-Anne Isler Beguin, said in particular that the
European Union does not exert sufficient pressure on Turkey during
membership negotiations with this country. She said both countries
[Armenia and Turkey] would greatly benefit from opening borders.
Criticizing EU’s "neutrality" on this issue, Oskanyan said that while
Armenia does not have preconditions regarding rapprochement between
the two countries [Armenia and Turkey], Turkey does have them
[preconditions]. He also dismissed Turkey’s concerns that Armenia has
territorial demands in its regard, and said that the border between
the two countries "is clearly marked" and corresponds to the borders
approved by the 1922 agreement signed between Turkey and the Soviet
Union.

The Daily Telegraph, UK
Oct 12 2007

When Kurds smell success, Turks go for guns

By Con Coughlin
Last Updated: 12:01am BST 12/10/2007

The semi-autonomous enclave of Kurdistan in northern Iraq has long
been regarded as an oasis of stability and good governance in a
country otherwise riven with violence and sectarian strife.

News: Turkey condemns US genocide declaration advertisement
Even when militant insurgent groups have carried out attacks against
Kurdish targets, such as the devastating truck bombings of the Yazidi
community last August that claimed more than 400 lives, the Kurds
have managed to resist being drawn into the endless spiral of
tit-for-tat attacks that has accounted for so many innocent lives
throughout the rest of the country.

The ability of the Kurds to rise above the internecine blood-letting
that has come to characterise post-Saddam Iraq owes much to the fact
that they have administered their own affairs for more than a decade;
Iraq’s Kurdish region was protected from Saddam’s murderous designs
by the no-fly zones established after the 1991 Gulf war.

The Kurds’ aptitude for self-government was finally rewarded in the
summer when American military commanders handed over control of the
three Kurdish provinces of Arbil, Dahuk and Sulaymaniyeh to Massoud
Barzani, the veteran Kurdish warlord.

But this rare Iraqi success story now looks as though it could soon
implode, should the Turkish government go ahead with its threat to
invade Kurdish-controlled northern Iraq to root out terror cells that
have been carrying out attacks on Turkish soil.

If the banner headlines in yesterday’s main Turkish newspapers are
any guide, the Turks are thirsting for revenge after a series of
attacks out in south-eastern Turkey by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers
Party (PKK).

In the worst attack, last weekend, 13 Turkish troops were killed in a
well-executed ambush. This and a series of other attacks on military
positions has persuaded Turkey’s political and military echelons to
bury their differences and present a united front to deal with the
PKK.

Following an emergency meeting this week of military and political
leaders chaired by Recep Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, the
government agreed to consider "every kind of legal, political and
economic measure – including an incursion across the border".

Preparations for an invasion are well under way, with the main roads
to Turkey’s southern border yesterday clogged with tank and troop
transporters.

Mr Erdogan says that, for the moment at least, he has only ordered
the military to make preparations for an invasion, but his advisers
believe that he is likely to seek parliamentary approval for action
within the next few days.

As the mass-selling Hurriyet declared in an editorial this week: "The
government has given the military a blank cheque for a cross-border
operation."

A Turkish invasion of northern Iraq is the last thing coalition
forces struggling to maintain order in Iraq would want to see, but
all the indications from Ankara suggest there are many persuasive
arguments in favour of action.

To start with, it would fully occupy the energies of Turkey’s
restless military establishment, which only a few months ago was
rumoured to be planning a coup to protect the country from the
growing Islamic encroachment on its secular identity.

There is also mounting consternation within Turkey’s political
establishment – both Muslim and secular – about the emergence of an
independent Kurdish state in northern Iraq.

Although Iraq’s Kurdish leaders have committed themselves fully to
supporting the new Iraqi constitution, Ankara is concerned that the
degree of autonomy enjoyed by the three self-governing Kurdish
provinces could lead to the eventual creation of a fully independent
Kurdish state.

This could have potentially disastrous implications for Turkey, where
the estimated 12 million Kurds living in the south of the country
would intensify their independence campaign.

Turkish concerns over what they see as the Kurds’ inexorable progress
towards full statehood have not been helped by what one Western
diplomat in the region recently described as Mr Barzani’s
"irredentist rhetoric".

In speeches made since he assumed control of the Kurds’ mini-state in
the summer, Mr Barzani has appeared to assert a political and
territorial claim to the ethnic Turkish areas of south-eastern
Turkey.

The bad blood between Ankara and Mr Barzani’s fiefdom has been
exacerbated by the Kurdish leader’s inclination to turn a blind eye
to the activities of the PKK, which is deemed a terrorist
organisation by Washington and its allies.

Mr Barzani and the PKK make for strange bedfellows: in the past, the
fiercely nationalistic Mr Barzani has fought to suppress the PKK’s
revolutionary Marxist-Leninist ideology. But more recently it has
suited his political agenda to give the PKK a free rein in northern
Iraq.

It gives him a powerful bargaining chip with Ankara in future
discussions over the oil-rich region of Kirkuk which, if it were ever
to be placed under Kurdish control, would make an independent Kurdish
state economically viable.

Indeed, Mr Barzani appears determined to protect the right of the PKK
to attack Turkish military positions, warning that he would deploy
his fierce Peshmerga fighters to defend the rugged mountain passes
that provide a natural defensive shield against a Turkish offensive.
The last large-scale Turkish incursions into northern Iraq in 1995
and 1997, which involved nearly 50,000 troops, failed to dislodge the
Kurdish rebels.

And even though any outbreak in hostilities between the Turks and the
Kurds could have catastrophic consequences for Western interests in
the region – particularly Iraq – it appears the West is powerless to
defuse the crisis.

This week’s decision by the US House of Representatives’ foreign
affairs committee to designate as genocide the deaths of hundreds of
thousands of Armenians at the hands of the Turks in 1915 has hardly
helped to improve the Bush Administration’s ability to influence
events in Ankara.

And the European Union’s patronising treatment of Turkey’s membership
application has strengthened the resolve of Turkish nationalists to
adopt a more robust approach to defending the country’s interests,
irrespective of whether the threat comes from Islamic radicals or
Kurdish separatists.

ml=/opinion/2007/10/12/do1204.xml

Turkish Press
Oct 12 2007

Erdogan: Such A Development Will Have A Negative Impact On Turkey –
U.S. Relations
Published: 10/12/2007

ANKARA – Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan held a telephone
conversation with U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice late on
Thursday.
Sources said that Rice called Prime Minister Erdogan on the phone and
explained her views about the approval of the resolution regarding
Armenian allegations on the incidents of 1915 by the U.S. House of
Representatives Committee on Foreign Relations.

Prime Minister Erdogan expressed his regret over the decision of the
committee, adding that passage of the resolution will do harm to U.S.
and Armenian interests.

Rice said that the U.S. administration was deeply disappointed by the
vote, adding that they would maintain their efforts resolutely to
prevent passage of the resolution by the full House.

Meanwhile, Rice also called Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan to
explain her views on the approval of the resolution.

(UK)

TURKS RATTLED BY CONGRESS VOTE ON ARMENIAN GENOCIDE

London Greek News, United Kingdom
Oct 11 2007

The Democrat controlled Congress despite intense pressure from the
White House and the Turkish government has voted on Wednesday to
condemn the mass killings of Armenians in Turkey in World War I as
an act of genocide.

The vote by the House Foreign Relations Committee was a non-binding
and so largely symbolic, but its consequences could reach far beyond
bilateral relations and spill into the war in Iraq.

The New York Times stated "Turkish officials and lawmakers warned that
if the resolution was approved by the full House, they would reconsider
supporting the American war effort, which includes permission to ship
essential supplies through Turkey and northern Iraq."

President George Bush speaking before the vote on the South Lawn of the
White House pleaded with the Congress to not pass the resolution saying
"We all deeply regret the tragic suffering of the Armenian people that
began in 1915," Mr. Bush said in remarks that, reflecting official
American policy, carefully avoided the use of the word genocide. "This
resolution is not the right response to these historic mass killings,
and its passage would do great harm to our relations with a key ally
in NATO and in the global war on terror."

"The resolution, which was introduced early in the current session
of Congress and which has quietly moved forward over the last few
weeks, provoked a fierce lobbying fight that pitted the politically
influential Armenian-American population against the Turkish
government, which hired equally influential former lawmakers like
Robert L. Livingston, Republican of Louisiana, and Richard A.

Gephardt, the former Democratic House majority leader who backed a
similar resolution when he was in Congress." The New York Times.

The traditional preferential relationship enjoyed by Turkey in the US
dating back to the late Turgut Ozal with Ronald Reagan and George Bush,
agreeing to major US military installations in Turkey at Incirilik
and Diyakabir.

Appearing outside the West Wing after that meeting, Defense Secretary
Robert M. Gates noted that about 70 percent of all air cargo sent to
Iraq passed through or came from Turkey, as did 30 percent of fuel
and virtually all the new armored vehicles designed to withstand
mines and bombs.

"They believe clearly that access to airfields and to the roads and so
on in Turkey would be very much put at risk if this resolution passes
and the Turks react as strongly as we believe they will," Mr. Gates
said, referring to the remarks of General Petraeus and Mr. Crocker.

Turkish reactions to the vote in Congress has been a veiled threat,
that if the vote was passed and made law this would put at risk that
permission for US fighter planes and re-fuelling flights to take
place over Turkish airspace. France was "punished" by Turkey after
its Parliament passed legislation condemning the Armenian genocide
by pulling all military agreements and contracts with France.

The Associated Press has reported in Turkey, a fresh wave of violence
raised the specter of a Turkish raid into northern Iraq, something
the United States is strongly urging against. A policeman was killed
and six others were wounded in a bomb attack in the Kurdish city of
Diyarbakir in southeastern Turkey on Wednesday. In the town of Sirnak
Turkish warplanes and helicopters were attacking positions along the
southern border with Iraq that are suspected of belonging to Kurdish
rebels who have been fighting Turkish forces for years.

?id=373

BAGIS DISSAPPOINTED BY THE VOTE

Turkish Press
Oct 11 2007

WASHÝNGTON D.C. – Justice & Development (AK) Party Deputy Chairman
Egemen Bagis said that Turkey will continue to exert efforts to avert
the bill to be put on vote at the U.S. House of Representatives.

The U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee passed the bill on Wednesday
by a 27-21 vote. The bill is expected to be debated by the full House
as a next step.

Bagis, who travelled to Washington D.C. to lobby against the
resolution, said they were disappointed by the vote.

"But nothing is over yet," Bagis told the A.A, and added that they
will continue to exert efforts to avert the bill to be voted by the
House. "Because it belongs to the garbage can," reaffirmed Bagis,
PM Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s foreign policy adviser.

"In case of a mistake despite all these, it will be United States’
problem, rather than Turkey’s. Americans will have to correct that
mistake," he said.

"Turkey’s priority is to eliminate the trouble caused by the terrorist
organization PKK. United States must take steps regarding this issue
and offer something concrete in fight against terrorism," he added.

"Turkey is not a country that creeps into its skin as it was in
the past. Turkey is now a regional power and will never let wrongs
happen. This resolution will not be helpful to Yerevan. Armenian
lobby jeopardized Turkish-American relations for the sake of their
narrow fanaticism. This lobby, which is composed of American citizens,
harmed U.S. interests. They exploited American democracy," Bagis said.

"However, Bush administration, the White House, the U.S. Department of
State and the Pentagon have still important steps to take to safeguard
relations with Turkey. United States must take steps to counter PKK
terrorism. We demand that," he added.

–Boundary_(ID_7U4Gwg8oxcBc6hDL6qxziA)–

JUDGING GENOCIDE

Economist, UK
Oct 11 2007

Relations between America and Turkey may be badly strained by
Congress’s wish to make a ruling on history

"THE Mohammedans in their fanaticism seemed determined not only
to exterminate the Christian population but to remove all traces
of their religion and…civilisation." So wrote an American consul
in Turkey, in 1915, about an incipient campaign by Ottoman Turkey
against its Armenian population. Today, Turkey explains the killings
of huge numbers of Armenians-as many as 1.5m died-as an unpleasant
by-product of the first world war’s viciousness, in which Turks
suffered too. But Armenians have long campaigned for recognition of
what they say was genocide.

On Wednesday October 10th America’s Congress stepped closer to
endorsing the latter view. The foreign-affairs committee of the
House of Representatives passed a bill stating that "the Armenian
Genocide was conceived and carried out by the Ottoman Empire from
1915 to 1923." The bill has enough co-sponsors that it seems likely
to pass the full House. The speaker, Nancy Pelosi, has a large number
of Armenians in her home district and has promised the measure a
vote on the floor. As a foretaste of the trouble this could stir
up in Turkey, the country’s president, Abdullah Gul, immediately
condemned the passage of the bill. He called it "unacceptable" and
accused American politicians of being willing to cause "big problems
for small domestic political games".

Turkey is enormously important to American military efforts in the
Middle East. So leading American politicians past and present have
lined up to oppose the resolution. President George Bush has said
historians, not legislators, should decide the matter. Turkey has hired
Dick Gephardt, a former leader of the Democrats in the House, to lobby
against the bill. All eight living former secretaries of state, from
Henry Kissinger to Madeleine Albright, who lost three grandparents in
the Nazi Holocaust, oppose the bill. So does Condoleezza Rice, who
holds the post now. Jane Harman, a powerful and hawkish Democrat,
initially co-sponsored the measure. But last week she urged its
withdrawal. A trip to Turkey, where she met the prime minister and
the Armenian Orthodox patriarch, changed her mind.

Ms Harman echoed an argument that others have made against the
resolution: that Turkey itself is tiptoeing towards normal relations
with neighbouring Armenia. The resolution could throw that process
off course. But in other ways Turkey has not helped its own case:
its criminal code has been used against writers within the country
who dare to mention genocide.

And other Turkish behaviour has further distanced it from America.

Turkey recently signed a deal to develop oil and gas with Iran,
and has made overtures to Hamas, which runs part of the Palestinian
Authority and continues to refuse to recognise Israel. Such behaviour
has cost Turkey some support among Jewish Americans-formerly ardent
supporters of Turkey as a moderate Muslim republic that is friendly
to Israel. Some even worry that a freshly insulted Turkey will not
heed America’s opinion when, for example, it thinks about crossing
the border into Iraq to pound Kurdish fighters.

It is hardly surprising that Turkey is feeling put-upon. Last year,
France’s National Assembly passed a bill not only declaring that the
Armenian massacres constituted genocide, but making it a crime to
deny it. Had the bill made it into law this would have resulted in
an absurd situation in which Turkish law forbade mention of genocide
while French law forbade its denial, all during Turkey’s application
to join the European Union. Turks complained that the French bill had
less to do with Armenians, and more to do with deterring Turkey’s EU
membership. The mood has not improved since. France’s new president,
Nicolas Sarkozy, is an outspoken opponent of Turkish membership.

Hurt feelings on both sides are pushing Turkey and the West apart:
Turkey feels mistreated, and acts in such a way. But the deal with Iran
and its pell-mell pursuit of Kurdish terrorists into Iraq antagonise
Americans and Europeans further. At the least, the panicky reaction
of the Bush administration over the genocide resolution shows that
policymakers realise that they can no longer take Turkey’s friendship
for granted.

ystory.cfm?story_id=9946751

Turkey fears send oil to record high

By Javier Blas in London and Daniel Dombey in Washington

Published: October 12 2007 19:19 | Last updated: October 13 2007 00:43

Crude oil prices on Friday surged to a fresh high of $84 a barrel on
concerns that Turkey might soon launch an invasion of northern Iraq in
an attempt to hit Kurdish militants it accuses of attacking Turkish
targets.

Such an attack could destabilise the Kurdistan region, the only
relatively peaceful area in Iraq. But public outrage against the
separatist Kurdish PKK is running high after recent attacks and
Turkey’s parliament is set to vote next week on a government request
for authorisation of a military operation.

Rapidly declining oil inventories in developed countries ahead of the
northern hemisphere winter also helped push the price higher. Nymex
December West Texas Intermediate surged 97 cents to $84.05 a barrel,
above the previous record of $83.90 a barrel, as traders covered their
positions for the weekend. It closed at $83.71 a barrel, up 63 cents
on the day.

Turkey said it was ready for any international criticism if it
launched an attack against Kurdish rebels who it says use northern
Iraq as a base to attack Turkish – targets. "We do not need anyone’s
advice on northern Iraq and the operation to be carried out there,"
Recep Tayyip Erdogan, prime minister, said.

The US has sought to dissuade Turkey from such an operation but
relations between Washington and Ankara have become more tense after a
US congressional committee voted last week to denounce as genocide the
mass killings of Armenians under the Ottoman Empire.

Iraq pumped about 2.18m barrels a day of crude oil in September, up
190,000 b/d from August, according to the latest data from the
International Energy Agency (IEA), the western countries’ energy
watchdog.

But most of the production was in the south of the country, rather
than the north, analysts said. Crude oil traders forecast oil exports
>From northern Iraq would be about 230,000 b/d in September and early
October.

Turkey is a key route for a crude oil pipeline from the Caspian sea
that is forecast to carry about 500,000 b/d of oil by the end of 2007.

The price surge came amid warnings from the IEA that supplies would
get "tighter this winter" as developed countries’ inventories fell at
the end of August to below the five-year average, to 53.5 days of
forward consumption. Inventories were at 55 days on demand in the
second quarter.

"Those stocks are clearly tighter than they have been for some time
but what is driving market expectations and, therefore, prices is the
lack of confidence that they will be replenished," the IEA said.

The watchdog has asked the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting
Countries (Opec) to boost its supplies to build up inventories. Crude
oil and products inventories usually increase in the third quarter,
ahead of the winter, but so far they have fallen by 360,000 barrels a
day.

The IEA kept roughly unchanged its forecast for oil demand in spite of
record high prices and slowing economic growth in the US and other
developed countries.

It said demand would average 85.9m b/d this year and 88m b/d in 2008,
roughly the same as it predicted a month ago.

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2007

Source: 0000779fd2ac.html

Belatedly, the House’s History Lesson

By Dana Milbank
Thursday, October 11, 2007; A02

Wondering why Congress can’t reach a consensus on the Iraq war? Well,
consider that our lawmakers are still divided on the Turkish-Armenian
conflict. Of 1915.

With bullets flying in Iraq and Afghanistan in 2007, the House Foreign
Affairs Committee sat down yesterday to resolve a pressing issue:
whether to pass a resolution declaring that the killing of hundreds of
thousands of Armenians 92 years ago qualifies as genocide.

Ankara insists this is nobody’s business but the Turks’. But the
history-minded House knows better.

"I consider myself a friend of Turkey, but friends don’t let friends
commit crimes against humanity," said Rep. Chris Smith (R-N.J.) in his
stinging rebuke of the Ottoman Empire.

Nor was Rep. Brad Sherman (D-Calif.) afraid to call a sultan a sultan.
He spoke of a need to "speak truth to Turkey" about the 1915
situation.

"Genocide is genocide, and there’s no way of sugarcoating it," agreed
Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.).

Indeed not. Only 92 years late, the intrepid members of the committee
voted 27 to 21 to condemn the Young Turks of 1915. The Armenians in
the audience, wearing stickers urging "Stop the Cycle of Genocide,"
erupted in applause and tears. Among the celebrants: Catholicos
Karekin II, supreme patriarch of the Armenian Church.

Amid such fervor, only a minority of lawmakers dared to argue that it
was hardly worth antagonizing Turkey, a crucial ally in Iraq and a
rare Muslim friend, over long-ago atrocities perpetrated by long-dead
rulers of a long-defunct empire.

"This is crazy," remarked Rep. Dan Burton (R-Ind.), who once shot a
watermelon as part of his probes of Bill Clinton. "We’re in the middle
of two wars and we’ve got troops over there that are at risk, and
we’re talking about kicking the one ally that’s helping us over there
in the face."

Then there was the statute-of-limitations conundrum. If it’s within
Congress’s authority to be the arbiter of the Armenian genocide, will
it next confront the Romans for the rape of the Sabine women, or the
Greeks for sacking Troy? And if attacking the Ottomans, why not weigh
in on the siege of Constantinople in 1453?

"Whether it is the Ottoman Empire, the Japanese Empire, the
Austro-Hungarian Empire or, indeed, the Roman Empire, I mean, we could
go on for a long time condemning the atrocities committed under each,"
pointed out Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-Colo.).

And maybe they will. Chairman Tom Lantos (D-Calif.) pointed out that
the committee has already probed the enslavement of "comfort women" by
imperial Japan. Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) announced yesterday that
he will soon introduce legislation on atrocities against American
Indians.

Ostensibly, the debate was about morality (many proponents noted that
Hitler was emboldened by the silence on the Armenian genocide) vs.
national security (several opponents observed that most U.S. air cargo
to Iraq goes through Turkish bases).

While nobody disputed that something very much like genocide happened
to the Armenians 92 years ago, support for the resolution tended to
reflect the size of the Armenian population in the lawmakers’
districts. All 10 committee members from California (where the census
counts 231,777 Armenians) voted aye, while both members from Indiana
(total Armenians: 904) voted no. The Californian chairman, Lantos,
warned that the measure could cause U.S. troops "to pay an even
heavier price" — then voted yes.

Ultimately, the threat to national security couldn’t compete with four
women in wheelchairs in the front row wearing pink stickers announcing
"I’m a survivor" of the genocide. "I don’t like Turkey — they are
animals there," reported Perouz Kalousdian, 97. She left Turkey in
1916 but remembers it clearly; "they came and they took all my
uncles," she said.

For lawmakers, the memories were rather less fresh and personal.
Lantos reached into the history books and pulled out quotes from the
U.S. ambassador to the Ottoman Empire.

"Thank you for your outstanding review of history," Sherman told the chairman.

"Very fair summary of the history," agreed Rep. Gary Ackerman (D-N.Y.).

Rep. Sheila Jackson-Lee (D-Tex.) thought it would be better if
"everyone opens their historic books."

"I don’t pretend to be a professional historian," demurred Rep. Howard
Berman (D-Calif.).

But Rep. Ron Klein (D-Fla.) insisted. "We are all students of
history," he told colleagues.

Not all students of logic, however. Sherman, arguing passionately for
the label of genocide, acknowledged that the measure was "an irritant
to our relationship with Turkey" but then concluded: "That’s the best
reason to vote for it."

The debate didn’t improve from there. Rep. Albio Sires (D-N.J.)
complained that "I feel like I have a Turkish sword over my head,"
while Rep. Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.) contributed a profound thought:
"Sticks and stones may break my bones, but words will never hurt me."

Likewise, Rep. Dana Rohrabacher (R-Calif.), arguing in favor of the
resolution, offered some pithy advice to the feuding Turks and
Armenians. "Move on," he recommended.

If only Congress could do the same.

Source: le/2007/10/10/AR2007101002493.html