Author: Garnik Tadevosian

Asia Times
by Francesco Sisci August 4, 202
Turkish President Erdogan’s Central Asia ambitions threaten to collide
with China in a sensitive region at a sensitive time
Turkey is stretching its political footprint and ambitions from the
central Mediterranean to Western China. But there are lessons of
tolerance and modernization to take from its Ottoman legacy and its
modern political sponsors – the US and Germany.
On the surface, Turkey is a midget. Its gross domestic product (GDP)
of less than US$800 billion is almost a third of Italy’s, and
certainly not the size of a geopolitical giant.
However, it has a population of 85 million and claims to represent
tens of millions of Turkic people spread around Asia. It claims the
legacy of the Muslim caliphate and the historic victory over the
Byzantines in 1453. And it is a global superpower that could play a
major role in the fight that just started against China.
Turkey under Recep Tayyip Erdogan has been spreading its wings in the
region and beyond. Yet, this latest incarnation is not just the
brainchild of the president.
Since the fall of the Soviet empire, there has been mutual interest
between Turkey and Turkic peoples of Central Asia. Turkey has proved
its mettle in recent years in containing and beating both Iran and
Russia in Syria and Iraq.
Although Ankara has also been cracking down within Turkey and in
former Northern Iraq on the aspirations of the Kurds — the darlings of
many Western liberals — Turkey has been the most effective force
hemming in Iran, which was supporting Syria’s Assad goals.
Turkey also managed at the same time to restrain and apparently root
out the Islamic State, which had been a constant threat for the
Western world. Ankara stopped the flow of immigrants from Syria into
Europe, giving breathing space to the European Union which was almost
flooded and overwhelmed by the immigrant problem.
That is, Turkey managed to deliver and became de facto the bulwark of
NATO in the region, and it could project itself east and west. Of
course, for each service Ankara claimed a reward but this further
enhanced its bargaining position.
Then perhaps it’s no surprise that the intelligence services of the
US, the United Kingdom and France are now all headed by experts on
Turkey, all fluent in Turkish.
Past and present intermingled
For the past couple of years Americans had been urging Italy to move
into Tripoli in support of the local government and to regain control
after the Russians moved in with “volunteers” and equipment in support
of East Libyan General Haftar.
After years of Rome dragging its feet on a massive Libyan
intervention, the Turks moved in, possibly with the blessing of
Washington, and stabilized the situation in Tripoli. This for Italy
was a major blow as it brought back the regional situation of more
than 100 years ago when in the 1911 Libyan war it dislodged the Turks
from Libya. But the Turks again managed to deliver a significant goal,
which was to check the Russians.
Moreover, Turkey could play a crucial role in the geopolitical fight
against China. Eight million Uighurs represent about 0.5% of the
Chinese population, yet their political activism far outweighs their
numbers. Xinjiang, home of the Uighurs, is about a quarter of the
Chinese territory.
To regain effective control of the region, Beijing has undertaken a
controversial campaign to allegedly send one million Uighurs to
re-education camps. These people, although suppressed and with little
sympathy among the Han population in China, are an extremely thorny
problem for Beijing.
Their leaders out of China have good understanding of Chinese
politics, unlike their Tibetan counterparts. One of them, Wuerkaxi,
was a leader of the Tiananmen movement and another, Nury Turkel, is an
accomplished lawyer and polyglot in America. Both were children of the
local Uighur “aristocracy” brought up by the communist education
system.
Therefore, they know well the inner workings of the party and command
high respect among their fellow Uighurs.
This is very different from their Tibetan counterparts. The Tibetan
aristocracy followed the Dalai Lama into exile in 1959, and from then
on, the Communist Party recruited its local cadres from the ex-slaves
who had little or no respect in the Tibetan community. Therefore,
Tibetan society has since been broken down with little unity, and
those who understood the party have little or no respect from the
Dalai Lama.
This is very different from the Uighurs. Now, of course, the campaign
of re-education and the massive flow of Han (China’s ethnic majority)
immigration into Xinjiang could very well undermine any clout the
local population has. However, the appeal of the Uighur cause could be
very strong in Central Asia, especially if backed by the Turkic legacy
and an American drive.
Turkic people in Central Asia are extremely divided and at odds with
one another because of ancestral tribal feuds and new frictions
between their newly established states. Yet they all look to Istanbul
as their cultural cradle.
In all this, the return of Hagia Sophia, the massive monument in
Istanbul, as a mosque is a symbol of the cultural if not religious
restoration of the Turkish caliphate, and a call to the ancient glory
when Turkic people ruled all over central Asia.
The Hagia Sophia was built as the largest church of Christianity
during the Byzantine rule, then it was turned into a mosque when
Mehmet II took the city from the Byzantine, and a century ago it
became a museum as Turkey vowed to distance itself from its Islamic
legacy.
Turkey’s outreach into Central Asia, right at the heart of one of
China’s most controversial issues, could become very important if it
manages to mobilize and unite modern Turkic populations of Central
Asia in an anti-Beijing stance. Many of those states, despite their
differences, have growing qualms with Beijing as they follow the fate
of their fellow Turkic Uighurs.
In this sense, the economic weaknesses of Turkey and its inability to
get its economy together could prove to be an asset in disguise. With
overblown political ambitions and little economic strength to back it
up, Turkey becomes more dependent on its patrons, the US and Germany
(in place of the European Union). In this situation, Turkey could be
rewarded even further with a greater role in the Mediterranean.
Turkey would create a three-seas link: the Mediterranean, the Black
Sea, and the Caspian Sea, all lined up by a Turkish presence. This
would be a Turkish Silk Road with anti-Chinese connotations that could
be supported by India, the European Union, and the United States. This
support would be essential for Turkey.
After the 1453 victory, the Ottomans established a monopoly on the
eastern Mediterranean and Central Asia that eventually forced the
European to reach Asia from the west, something that led to the
discovery of America and the eventual demise of the Turks. A Modern
“caliphate” then ought to avoid the mistakes of the past and gain as
many friends as possible rather than enemies.
Enemies or not? The Pope
Some countries may be unhappy with Turkish global ambitions. Egypt,
Greece, Israel and Italy, although firmly in the Western camp, are ill
at ease with the new Turkish posture. However, none of them alone or
in alliance can make up for the services that Turkey has provided and
could provide in the future. Yet Turkey cannot just depend on American
good offices to get along with these countries.
The main goal that the United States envisions now is the containment
of China. It is therefore very unlikely that these countries would
openly go against American wishes or even try to undermine them. This
brings the ball back into Erdogan’s court.
Erdogan cannot carry on his massive ambitions just thanks to economic
and political handouts by the United States and Germany (where Turkish
immigrants are a political force of their own). The Ottoman sultanate
was able to survive and thrive for centuries because it commanded the
loyalty and respect of a multi-ethnic and multi-religious population.
There were Christians, both Orthodox and Catholic, Jews and Muslims of
all sects.
Erdogan cannot just press on the pedal of Turkic identity and Muslim
faith. He must reach out to the Christian world, in a modern way, to
gain more of its support and to non-Turkic ethnic minorities, such as
Kurds of Persian descent, or Arabs and Jews. This could help Erdogan
inch closer to the European Union, the United States, and Israel,
which in turn could help turn the Turkish economy around.
In all of this, it could be crucial for Erdogan to reach out to the
Holy See. The conversion of Hagia Sophia into a mosque was seen by the
whole Christian world as a historic defeat of Christianity.
A hundred years ago with the revolution of the Young Turks, the
massive temple was turned into a museum as a sign of transformation
towards the Western world and first admission of modern Turkey into
the system of Western alliances.
In this sense, the persecution of Christians in Turkey or the
suppression of non-Muslim faiths could be a major drag on Erdogan’s
ambitions.
Allowing Christian activity in the Muslim world has been a
long-awaited signal and could bring about huge political dividends for
Erdogan. Now is the time for Erdogan to collect on 30 years of Turkish
efforts but he has to deliver something that goes beyond military and
political prowess. The key is a reconciliation with the past. The turn
of the Hagia Sophia skips the past 100 years and reaches out to the
Ottoman.
But at the height of the empire the Ottomans were a very complex reality.
Turkey needs to set in motion its economy and for this it needs
friends and a more liberal internal society. Without an efficient
economy and friends all political dreams go bust. The oil of Arab
friends/clients, sold at declining prices, can’t last long.
Moreover, Ankara needs to reconcile with its past. The recent past is
the grudge over not being admitted to the EU. Now it’s clear that it
was a blessing in disguise. If Turkey had been in the EU it could not
have pursued its geopolitical goals. And, given the poor performance
of its economy, it might now be in a worse crisis than Italy or Greece
and the dealings with the EU could have further soured Turkish
sentiments.
Furthermore, Ankara needs to reach out to Greeks and Armenians who for
centuries had been an integral part of the Ottoman empire. The break
in relations with the two Christian groups also contributed to the
fall of the empire.
If Turkey wants a glimmer of its past it has to find a new future with
these two important neighbors, and this could also start by
recognizing many of its mistakes, the ethnic and religious
persecutions of the past. With this, the future of Central Asia and of
the three-seas system could be set on a different course.