ArmInfo.It is known that forecasting is a thankless task, but forecasting the future policy of Russia in the South Caucasus is doubly thankless, first of all, taking into account the inconsistency of Russian expert political thought and existing concepts in the Caucasian direction of our policy. Russian military expert Vladimir Evseev expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
“The increased intensity of geopolitical confrontation at the international level has naturally led to a shortage of geopolitical containment mechanisms, increasing the level of uncertainty. Against such a background, military and other provocations in the South Caucasus, which is full of unresolved problems, cannot be ruled out, especially against the backdrop of Baku’s attempts to hit the jackpot by engaging in its favor of any international instability. It’s no secret that Azerbaijan sees the situation around Ukraine as an additional opportunity to speed up negotiations and put pressure on Armenia,” he said.
Thus, the expert by no means excludes short-term escalations of the situation in the conflict region of a local nature. According to his forecasts, a long-term, large-scale escalation is ruled out due to the expected active diplomatic intervention of Russia in this case, first of all, due to the unwillingness to get another hotbed of hostilities on its own borders.
According to Evseev, the West is acting in a coordinated manner against Russia today, which is periodically joined by Turkey, Azerbaijan, and some other countries. And according to his estimates, it is precisely the absence of an unambiguous, clear policy of Armenia towards Russia that significantly reduces Moscow’s desire and ability to respond to certain situations and scenarios around Armenia.
“However, at the same time, on the basis of existing experience, I can say that the calculations of Russian diplomacy are not always correct and far calculated. This also adds uncertainty to the process of forecasting further impulses in the South Caucasus. It can be stated that Ukraine, in turn, contributed to Russia’s rather calm, balanced policy at this stage, the purpose of which is to avoid specific conflicts and problems with both Armenia and Azerbaijan,” the military expert summed up.