ARMENIA: MANEUVERING BEGINS AHEAD OF MAY PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS
Haroutiun Khachatrian
EurasiaNet, NY
Feb 5 2007
With the date now set for Armenia’s parliamentary elections,
political debate is turning to a larger question: Will the vote be
falsified? While officials have vowed to hold a free and fair election
on May 12, opposition parties are questioning how these pledges will
play out in practice.
In recent weeks, the topic of falsification has dominated now-daily
public discussions and party statements. Armenia’s 2003 presidential
election and its 2005 constitutional referendum, two controversial
votes widely condemned for failing to meet international standards,
are the latest standards for comparison, though doubts surround earlier
votes as well. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].
"All previous elections were falsified. All those who organized these
falsifications were given posts," said Vazgen Manukian, leader of
the National Democratic Union Party (NDUP), on January 30, the daily
Hayots Ashkhar reported. "How do they dare say that these elections
will be better than the previous ones?"
For their part, election officials do not exclude the possibility of
vote rigging, but maintain that the onus for prevention lies on the
political parties taking part in the May election. Central Election
Commission (CEC) Chairman Garegin Azarian told reporters on January
24 that violations are only possible during vote counts at local
polling stations, which transmit data automatically to the CEC.
One opposition representative on the CEC, however, disputed this
claim. Feliks Khachatrian, a delegate from the opposition Ardarutiun
(Justice) bloc, has charged that gaps in the election code leave
room for falsifications. Khachatrian took issue with the existence of
voter lists for on-duty policemen, along with the infirm and disabled,
which are not prepared by election commissions and which, in theory,
could lead to repeat votes. "Do not have a hope that we will have
normal elections," media outlets reported Khachatrian as saying.
Opposition leaders say that placing active, dedicated party volunteers
at polling stations is the best way to encourage a fair vote. At
a January 24 discussion at the Armenian Center of National and
International Studies, parliamentarian Arshak Sadoyan, a founder
and the president of the National Democratic Union Party, called for
the opposition to unite in its efforts to have enough "strong-armed"
people at polling stations who would be willing to "turn the voting
into a velvet revolution" if officials attempt to rig the balloting.
A week later, Manukian, the NDUP chairman, presented a similar
proposal for opposition parties to create a "coalition of common
interest." However, no concrete actions have been reported yet on
this measure.
Meanwhile, western governments and international organizations are
emphasizing their own interest in a democratic vote. The United States
has launched a $6 million program, in conjunction with non-governmental
organizations and government agencies, to bolster the chances for a
fair vote, including training for election commission officials. The
United Nations Development Programme, the Organization for Security
and Cooperation in Europe and the Council of Europe are running
similar programs.
At a January 24 press conference, US Charge d’affaires Anthony Godfrey,
the US embassy’s senior representative in Yerevan, suggested Washington
might adopt a carrot-and-stick approach to the vote. In terms of
potential punishments, Godfrey noted that The Millennium Challenge
Corporation’s board of directors is on record as stating that "[a]
serious deficiency in the elections" could lead to a reconsideration
of Armenia’s $236 million program. [For background see the Eurasia
Insight Archive].
Opposition members remain skeptical about the effectiveness of
such threats and measures. Despite its training programs, the West
"eventually prefers to trust what the authorities say," Manukian
said, adding that the best use for US funds would be to bring in
enough international observers to monitor the more than 1,000 polling
stations taking part in the vote.
The Armenian government and supporters of the ruling coalition
are less pessimistic. In a February 4 interview with Armenia TV,
Defense Minster Serzh Sarkisian, a leader of the ruling Republican
Party, denounced the opposition’s assertions that falsifications are
inevitable. "I’ll do my best to have the elections honest, free,
fair and transparent," Sarkisian told viewers. "And not only me,
[but] all the authorities will do the same. And this is because the
authorities and the parties who have good chances to win and become
part of the government as a result of the elections are the most
interested in having good elections. No one is more interested in
having good elections," he said.
Earlier, Hrant Margarian, a leader of the Dashnaktsutiun (Armenian
Revolutionary Federation) Party, a member of the governing coalition,
said that his party would try to persuade voters to vote according to
principles, rather than in response to offered "election bribes." The
comment, made January 29, appeared to be a thinly veiled reference
to the Bargavach Hayastan, or the Prosperous Armenia Party, which has
recently been the target of considerable controversy over charity work
done by a foundation that shares the party’s name. [For background
see the Eurasia Insight archive].
Some independent observers share this optimistic view. At a February 3
discussion at the Friday Club in Yerevan, sociologist Aharon Adibekian
argued that although individual instances of vote-rigging are quite
likely to occur, much depends on the behavior of the strongest
political players in the race, the Republican Party and Prosperous
Armenia. "If they reach a gentleman’s agreement and commit as few
violations as possible, it will be possible to have democratic
elections in Armenia," Adibekian said.
Editor’s Note: Haroutiun Khachatrian is a Yerevan-based writer
specializing in economic and political affairs.