ADVOCATE SEES PIPELINE AS ASIA-EUROPE BRIDGE
The International Herald Tribune
December 24, 2009 Thursday
France
Former German official expects link via Turkey to open diplomatic doors
The former German foreign minister and Green Party leader Joschka
Fischer is promoting Nabucco to deliver non-Russian natural gas to
Europe and economic and political benefits to Central Asia.
Joschka Fischer, the former student radical, Green Party leader,
German foreign minister and Princeton University professor, is aware
of the irony in his latest career move: strategic consultant for a
transnational pipeline.
But as he often did with his past positions, Mr. Fischer is mixing
a bit of idealism with a heavy dose of realism in signing on to the
project, which is expected to cost (EURO)8 billion, or $11.4 billion.
Mr. Fischer is convinced that energy shortages last January – caused
by a pricing dispute between Russia and Ukraine over natural gas –
were the turning point for the pipeline, which is called Nabucco
and stretches for 3,000 kilometers, or 1,900 miles. Europe cannot
wait for another crisis before beginning to diversify its suppliers,
he argues, as another cold wave grips the Continent.
Beyond the imperative of supplying energy, however, Mr. Fischer sees
immense strategic implications in Nabucco for the European Union,
and especially for its relations with Turkey – a NATO member and a
candidate to join the E.U. – as well as with its eastern neighbors
Azerbaijan and Iraq, from whom Nabucco hopes to buy its natural gas.
"Nabucco is about a new relationship," Mr. Fischer said at his Berlin
office. "That is why Turkey is so important. Brussels understands
this. I wish the member states did, too."
Ever since the Nabucco project was first proposed in 2002, it has
been plagued by problems, with divisions inside the E.U. over its
cost and even its necessity.
In Germany, the Social Democratic coalition government, which was
then led by Gerhard Schröder, had supported another project, the
Nord Stream pipeline, a Russian-German effort that would run under
the Baltic Sea.
After his defeat in 2005 by Angela Merkel, the conservative leader,
Mr. Schröder joined the payroll of Gazprom, Russia’s state-owned
energy giant, which is building Nord Stream.
Mrs. Merkel has also supported Nord Stream but has been less than
enthusiastic about Nabucco, which is to stretch from Turkey across
Bulgaria and Romania and end near Vienna.
In 2007, Gazprom and the Italian energy company Eni Enhanced Coverage
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Most Recent 60 Days introduced a plan for another pipeline, South
Stream, to take Russian natural gas under the Black Sea to Europe,
as a competitor to Nabucco.
Mr. Fischer wants to see Gazprom’s monopoly broken in the delivery
of Eurasian gas to Europe.
Europe needs "new pipelines for new gas," he said.
Mr. Fischer has become a prominent supporter of Nabucco, and not,
he said, just for the paycheck.
Without promising any prospect of E.U. membership, the European Union
has sought to build stronger economic, trade and political ties with
the countries of Central Asia and North Africa in a bid to promote
stability and economic development.
Mr. Fischer sees Nabucco as an important part of that effort.
He is convinced that Turkey plays a pivotal role between Europe and
Central Asia and the Middle East, particularly since the Turkish
government, led by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has begun
to carve out its own foreign policy priorities. Its biggest foreign
policy shifts have been its decisions to restore diplomatic relations
with Armenia, to reach out to Iran and to improve ties with Syria.
Through Nabucco, "relationships between Turkey and Europe could have
a chance of really improving," said Mr. Fischer, who unlike Mrs.
Merkel’s conservative bloc is an ardent supporter of Turkey’s
eventually joining the E.U.
The pipeline also would contribute to Europe’s energy security and
diversification, he said.
More than 58 percent of the natural gas used in Europe is imported,
with Russia supplying more than a quarter of that amount.
Some E.U. members, like Bulgaria, are totally dependent on Russian
natural gas deliveries, a legacy of old Warsaw Pact ties. When Russian
supplies stopped flowing last January, many people were left without
heat or even lights.
In addition, the bloc’s natural gas consumption is expected to increase
to as much as 815 billion cubic meters, or 28.8 trillion cubic feet,
by 2030 from 502 billion cubic meters in 2005, according to the
European Commission.
Russia alone would not be able to meet that demand, and even if
it could, the E.U. does not want to increase its dependence on one
country.
"The problem with Russia’s energy sector is that production is
falling," Mr. Fischer said. "It needs not only big investments but
technology, know-how, managerial skills."
Nabucco is being built by a consortium of energy companies: OMV of
Austria, Bulgargaz of Bulgaria, Botas of Turkey, RWE of Germany,
MOL of Hungary and Transgaz of Romania.
Those consortium members have first option for taking as much as 50
percent of the natural gas transported. The remainder would be sold
on the open market once the project is completed.
Completion is expected by 2014, or two years after Nord Stream.
Originally, construction was supposed to have been completed this
year. On Monday, Christian Dolezal, the spokesman for Nabucco, said
it should begin "by the end of 2011." He also said the financial
arrangements would be concluded in 2010 with the European Bank
for Reconstruction and Development, the European Investment Bank,
the International Finance Corp. and export credit agencies. So far,
none of those institutions has said how much it was prepared to put up.
Even though the European Commission president, José Manuel Barroso,
has emphasized the strategic importance of Nabucco, the European
Commission allocated just (EURO)272 million for it last March, out
of a budget for energy projects of (EURO)3.97 billion.
After some wrangling with the E.U. over how much natural gas Turkey
could tap from Nabucco and then resell, Mr. Erdogan signed a transit
agreement in July with four European governments.
The skeptics are many, despite Mr. Fischer’s lobbying.
"Nearly eight years have gone since the E.U. raised the idea of
building the Nabucco, yet we still don’t know which countries will
supply the gas," said Borut Grgic, the chairman of the Institute for
Strategic Studies in Brussels.