Author: Emil Lazarian

EUROPEAN PEACEKEEPERS: THE CAUCASUS UNDER ME?
by Sergei Markedonov, Political and Military Analysis Institute
Translated by Elena Leonova
Source: Izvestia, June 21, 2006, p. 6
Agency WPS
What the Papers Say Part A (Russia)
June 21, 2006 Wednesday
What does the European Union really want in the Caucasus?; The
Europeans are saying that Russia should not only abandon its exclusive
political role in the South Caucasus, but also open up the gates to
European peacekeeping in the North Caucasus. For Russia, such an
approach would be tantamount to admitting its own incompetence as
a state.
Europe has come to the Caucasus. “The Caucasus and Central Asia region
will be among the most important issue for Germany’s forthcoming
period of chairing the European Union. The Caucasus is being called a
‘special region’ which has been overlooked by Europe for some time,”
says Roland Goetz, head of the Russia and CIS group at the German
Institute for International and Security Affairs (an influential
think-tank consulted by the German government).
What kind of significance do the Europeans attach to the Caucasus
region? Its unique natural and geographic significance isn’t the only
reason for their interest. “The Caucasus, with its fairly limited
natural resources, is not a key region,” says Roland Goetz. The
Americans regard the Caucasus as important primarily as a bridge for
their sweeping geopolitical combinations (Iran, the Middle East).
Europe, which is building a “good neighbor” policy, regards the
Caucasus as a political patient suffering an illness known as “ethnic
conflicts.” For European politicians, the priority in the Caucasus
is to overcome ethnic conflicts and disseminate the “European” system
of values.
But the Europeanization of the Caucasus goes back before 2006. The
“special region” has been a focus of attention for European politicians
since the early 1990s. In contrast to the United States, the European
Union’s approach to Caucasus policy emphasizes socio-economic issues,
not military-political issues. The EU’s second priority direction is
promoting stability in the region, as well as striving to ensure that
“European standards” in human rights and democratic liberties are
respected and observed. The common policy plan on South Caucasus
states, adopted by the EU Council in 1995, emphasizes the need
for assisting the former Soviet republics in the Trans-Caucasus
to establish democratic institutions. However, while the EU claims
to uphold universal democratic values, it frequently fails to take
account of ethnic and cultural differences and traditions in Georgia,
Armenia, and Azerbaijan.
Russia plays a special role in the “great game” of the Caucasus
region. Firstly, part of Russia’s own territory is in the Caucasus.
Secondly, Russia is extremely active in the South Caucasus, and its
role in regulating the “frozen conflicts” can hardly be disregarded.
It seems that European experts are now prepared to see the Caucasus as
an integrated region, not isolating the problems of the “independent”
South Caucasus from those of the Russian North Caucasus. But this
approach, which is shared by most Russian politicians and analysts,
is interpreted differently in Europe. The Europeans are saying that
Russia should not only abandon its exclusive political role in the
South Caucasus, but also open up the gates to European peacekeeping
in the North Caucasus.
For Russia, such an approach would be tantamount to admitting its own
incompetence as a state and in government. It isn’t clear exactly
what kind of solutions the countries of Europe are proposing to
Russia. Negotiations with the separatists? In the wake of the Beslan
school hostage siege and the death of Aslan Maskhadov, the “Ichkerian
movement” itself has experienced a severe crisis, becoming fragmented
and essentially giving up calls for secession from Russia. Even when
“Ichkerian President” Maskhadov was still alive, negotiating with him
was no more than a sweetly utopian European idea, since the reality
of Chechnya is such that no separatist leader had his authority
recognized by all the others. These days, the European view of the
Caucasus is a combination of obsolete impressions from the mid-1990s
(that is, the period of active military confrontation between the
federal government and the separatists).
All the same, Europeanization of the Caucasus region is a political
reality that we must learn to live with. We need to be able to defend
our vital national interests in language that is comprehensible in
terms of European political and legal thinking. We need to initiate
not only conservation, but also progressive development of the South
Caucasus countries, recognizing that stability in itself, without
progress, is impossible. Russia is the country that can teach the
Europeans to combine the schemes and formulas of legal theory with
Realpolitik in a rational way. Without that, long-lasting pacification
of the Caucasus is impossible.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

MUSLIM LEADERS URGE ARMENIAN WITHDRAWAL FROM KARABAKH ENCLAVE
Agence France Presse — English
June 21, 2006 Wednesday 2:04 PM GMT
Leaders of Muslim states urged the immediate and unconditional
withdrawal of ethnic Armenian forces from the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh
enclave in Azerbaijan in a declaration signed in Baku on Wednesday.
In a document called the Baku Declaration, the 57 member states of
the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (OIC) said they “strongly
condemn the aggression” of Armenia against Azerbaijan and “urge
the immediate, complete and unconditional withdrawal of Armenian
occupying forces.”
The Armenian-majority enclave of Karabakh seceded from Azerbaijan
in the late 1980s, sparking a six-year conflict between Armenia
and Azerbaijan that claimed 25,000 lives and displaced hundreds of
thousands of people.
Despite a 1994 ceasefire, tensions remain high in the mountainous
region — one of the world’s most militarized zones.
The OIC declaration called on member states to “support Azerbaijan
on the issue of full restoration of its territorial integrity.”
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

“IF IT CONTINUES IN THIS WAY, WE CAN’T HOLD STATE ELECTIONS”
Margaret Yesayan
Aravot.am
21 June 06
The “Justice” group representative in the CEC Felix Khachatrian
expresses his apprehension.
The “Justice” group representative in the CEC Felix Khachatrian
opposing to the CEC chairman Gourgen Azarian’s thought that the
opposition makes declaration for justifying its real defeat, said;
“We have never lost, we have won both in presidential and parliamentary
elections in 1998 and 2003 and during constitutional referendum in
2005, people like Spartak Eghiazarian and those who appoint them
have lost, it’s another matter that the authorities have rigged our
real victory. And Grigor Haroutiunian’s words are completely true,
he had said that they had gathered for taking courses in Goris city
but the lecturers hadn’t come, I myself has phoned the chairman of the
commission informing him about it”. Felix Khachatrian explains this
unorganized situation with a special intention by the authorities,
to do their best for less people take courses and for being possible
to give certificates whom they want.
Felix Khachatrian considers important the teaching project of the
members of commissions but he thinks as a specialist that the project
doesn’t serve its purpose as the responsibility of the case is given
to the leaders of communities who try to fail the process.
Mr. Khachatrian also has complaints from the whole duration of
course organization though he is also a teacher; ”16-hour project
is formed which is too little for realizing such a great documental
study. I was myself taking part as a teacher in Masis City of Ararat
region. My first impression was too bad and referred to organization
part of courses. The group with which I must have lessons was a group
by 154 members by the list. But a hall with 90 seats was given for
lectures. It was the hall of Masis Municipality. And it became clear
that only 92 persons were present in the hall and on the end of the
day the future members of commissions have run away from lectures and
it became clear that only 27 remained. And only 25 persons instead
of 154 took part in the test. This means if everything continues in
this way we won’t be able to hold the coming state elections. But
perhaps it will become clear that all future members of commissions
have passed the test in Masis region”, – F. Khachatrian expressed
his apprehension. M. Khachatrian is sure that if a lot of people from
this region get certificates of commission members, it will be obvious
that the authorities acted by their designed scenario again. To our
question the representatives of the authority or opposition take part
in the courses more, Felix Khachatrian answered that only the name and
surname if written in list given to him and the number of passport,
there isn’t any other information and he can’t answer to that question.
–Boundary_(ID_2+4QZKZAsEhmG4OhFCcefg)- –
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

THE FUTURE OF THE SETTLEMENT OF THE ISSUE IS THE NEGOTIATIONS BETWEEN NKR AND AZERBAIJAN
A1+
[07:13 pm] 21 June, 2006
Today President of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic Arkadi Ghoukasyan sent
a message to the members of the international scientific conference
titled “Nagorno Karabakh Republic: past, present and future” which
opened today in the capital of the country, Stepanakert.
The message says, “Today Azerbaijan spares no effort to turn back the
hands of time and deprive our nation of the freedom and independence
won by heavy losses.
This is an unpromising way. I am sure that the futures lies in the
negotiations between NKR and Azerbaijan in order to look for mutually
convenient ways of settling the conflict and to start cooperation
between the two countries.”
The President of NKR also added that although the NKR is not recognized
by the international community, Azerbaijan lacks behind Karabakh in
holding the country up to democratic standards. Besides, according to
Arkadi Ghoukasyan, the past 15 years proved that the people of Nagorno
Karabakh have the right to have an independent republic of their own.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

A VISIT TO ENJOY THEIR WORK
A1+
[05:30 pm] 21 June, 2006
RA Minister of Agriculture David Loqyan, and NA deputies Hranoush
Hakobyan and Hakob Hakobyan visited the marz of Gegharqounik yesterday.
The Minister of Agriculture got acquainted with the course of the
reconstruction of the road Gavar- Gegharqounik. He also visited
Verin Getashen the population of which has disagreements with those
of Nerqin Getashen about the exploitation of the water pipeline.
Regional Governor of Gegharqounik Arsen Grigoryan mentioned that two
major problems of the region have been solved. “The RA Government has
allotted 63 million AMD in order to realize the cleaning of Gavaraget
in Noratus”, he mentioned.
David Loqyan too mentioned that there are still many problems in the
region, but the majority is in the solution phase.
TV Company “Qyavar”, Gavar
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

COUNCIL SUMS UP RESULTS OF TENDER FOR CONSTRUCTION OF NEW HIGHWAY IN YEREVAN
Armenpress
Jun 21 2006
YEREVAN, JUNE 21, ARMENPRESS: The press office of the Armenian
president said the council set up to manage and coordinate a set of
development projects funded by the US-based Lincy Foundation, met
today to sum up the results of a tender announced for construction
of a new highway in downtown Yerevan that would join three streets
of Heratzi, Saralanj and Avetisian.
It said the meeting was chaired by Armen Gevorkian, chief of president
Kocharian’s staff and also chairman of the council. The press office
said based on the recommendations of the tender commission the council
recognized three construction firms winners of the tender. It said
these companies will build the new road on three sections.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

WHERE IS ARKADY GHUKASYAN?
Melik Mejlumyan
Lragir.am
22 June 06
On these days the media of Nagorno Karabakh is focused on the NKR
presidential election in 2007. In particular, there is a lot of
consideration about the Constitution of Nagorno-Karabakh Republic
and the hustle and bustle thereof among the ruling elite. The point
is the anxiety among the public that President Ghukasyan is likely
to use the factor of the Constitution to establish a legal basis to
run a third term.
Ghukasyan and his aides refuse to give an explanation that would
relieve the anxiety of the public. During his short visits to his
office, the president simply gives some new instructions concerning the
Constitution and quickly leaves in some direction. Moreover, a process
is underway among the ruling elite, which is difficult to explain,
which interests the public more. Namely, different senior and junior
officials convey information to the media, which damages one another’s
reputation. A real fight started between the NKR government and Armenia
Foundation. The escalating conflict between the two pro-governmental
factions of the parliament is becoming known to the public. People
who are fond of the topic of the president’s successors are emerging.
However, the public is more anxious about President Ghukasyan. The
Karabakh society is considering more and more often the fact that
Arkady Ghukasyan was not in the country all through 2006, and almost no
information was given where he was. The people of Karabakh are already
“used” to the long absence of the president, which was interrupted by
“short visits to the country” on different occasions. The year 2002
(the first year of his reelection) was a record; people learned
about him from his interviews with the foreign media. At that time
the popular joke about the “short visit of the Karabakh leadership
to Karabakh” was born.
But not everyone has got used to it. The lasting absence of Arkady
Ghukasyan is arousing special interest among a certain circle. Along
with kneading the idea of running a third term it is suggested that
Ghukasyan no longer believes in the possibility of a third term and
is busy thinking about his future. Besides, one of the purposes of his
visits to different countries is said to be “settlement of complicated
financial problems with various sponsors who have provided assistance
to the NKR people at different times.”
The Armenian media have published a lot of information about
Ghukasyan’s property. Now, however, when the danger of publishing
information about the “black” activities of the leaders of the ruling
elite emanates from the government, he cannot remain calm.
One way or another, the end of terms of presidency in both NKR and
Armenia is giving rise to big problems. The activities of top officials
has “localized” within the concern about their own future. It appears
that for someone the problem of Nagorno Karabakh has reached the
problem of their own future. This circumstance, in fact, may worry the
society in Karabakh. In a period when the country’s political issue
is under “international pressure,” the absence of the head of state
from the processes underway may lead to dramatic consequences. It is
becoming clear for many that Ghukasyan does not have time for Karabakh.
It would be unfair to state that Ghukasyan’s future is not a
state affair (especially that he is haunted by Samvel Babayan’s
revenge). However, Ghukasyan probably cannot realize that the
question is being solved a little differently. For instance, it
would be expedient if Arkady Ghukasyan quitted office earlier at a
more convenient moment. Everybody remembers how the former president
of Russia Boris Yeltzin gave away power on time, guaranteeing his
future. He could have realized, but only real figures act so. In
Armenia and Karabakh they wait until the danger of total defeat hangs
immediately overhead, then they start complaining of others. They
hope to find a way out by creeping to “different lords.”
People should therefore rely on themselves. Karabakh needs a new and
practical leader. Especially now, when there is no time to look for
Ghukasyan all over the world and return him to his presidential duties.
P.S. June 22 is Arkady Ghukasyan’s birthday, and we congratulate him
with all our hearts.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

OSCE MINSK GROUP CO-CHAIRS WILL MEET IN VIENNA
ArmRadio.am
22.06.2006 10:12
OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chairs on the Karabakh conflict settlement will
meet today in Vienna. Mathew Bryza will be officially presented as
new US Co-Chair.

ROSE-ROTH SEMINAR OF NATO PARLIAMENTARY ASSEMBLY TO BE HELD IN SOCHI
ArmRadio.am
22.06.2006 10:37
Issues related to the security in South Caucasus, Russia-NATO
cooperation, as well as the role of civil society in the settlement
of “frozen” conflicts will be discussed today during the “Rose-Roth”
seminar of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly to start today in Sochi.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

FIGHTING EU ‘ENLARGEMENT FATIGUE’
by Alison Smale and Dan Bilefsky
The International Herald Tribune, France
June 20, 2006 Tuesday
Commissioner urges leaders to speak out
Olli Rehn, the European Union’s expansion commissioner, issued a
strong call Monday to European leaders to sell enlargement to voters
and not make it a scapegoat of larger policy failures such as high
unemployment and globalization.
“Enlargement blues could be called ‘unemployment blues’ or
‘globalization blues’,” Rehn, a Finn, said in an interview at his
office. “The origins are much deeper in our social fabric.”
Rehn, who has been responsible for enlargement for almost two years,
acknowledged that the policy was a tough sell. On vacation last summer
in France and Germany, he said, he heard popular criticism.
“I am not blind or deaf,” he said. “I could see there is a certain
enlargement fatigue.”
But, he argued, Europeans are often “more rational” than their
governments and can be sold on the notion that the absorption of eight
former communist countries and Cyprus and Malta all of which became
members in May 2004 has been a success story, uniting a Continent
previously divided by the Cold War.
“We should not make enlargement a scapegoat for our domestic policy
failures,” he said, adding, “The European Union has been better at
doing enlargement than communicating enlargement.”
For instance, the EU summit meeting last week ended with a statement
trumpeting the success of the May 2004 expansion. “That’s the kind
of thing I want to hear,” Rehn said.
Asked whether European politicians were doing enough of that kind
of talk once they left the summit halls of Brussels, Rehn mentioned
President Jacques Chirac of France as an example of someone who had,
in his view, done that, but declined in the characteristic manner of EU
officials who must please 25 constituencies to single out countries
that were not playing their part. When reminded that Chirac must
leave office within a year, he smiled and acknowledged that Chirac
would not be a candidate in next year’s race for the French presidency.
Enlargement “has been a success story,” Rehn said. “The EU should
have all the reasons to be proud of it.” Asked, therefore, why this
pride was not more palpable, he said it was linked to “bad feelings
and social discontent in many EU states.”
He also noted that the expansion in May 2004 was essentially
“yesterday’s news” when it happened because the EU and the new member
states had been so careful to negotiate economic, social, political
and other reforms in advance of membership.
That pattern, he noted, is continuing in the efforts to include new
members from the Balkans and in the case of Turkey.
The summit meeting was also dominated by talk of the 25-nation bloc
having reached its capacity to absorb new members. Rehn stressed,
however, that this was not so much a sign that Europe should not
expand but proof that it could not function smoothly without altering
institutions and operations to reflect that it was no longer a cozy
bloc of a dozen or 15 overwhelmingly West European states.
Romania and Bulgaria are the two nations due to join next, with a
review process this fall to determine whether or not the EU will
stick to the current date of Jan. 1 next year for their admission.
Turkey, which is not expected to complete membership negotiations
for another 10 to 15 years, poses much bigger questions.
Rehn said Turkey had made significant progress in reducing systematic
torture but that the pace of judicial reform guaranteeing freedom of
expression was “more schizophrenic.”
The prosecution of the Turkish novelist Orhan Pamuk last spring for
remarks acknowledging Turkey’s role in the genocide against Armenians
in the early 20th century was “a disappointment in the beginning,”
said Rehn, who met Pamuk on his last visit to Turkey. Eventually,
however, the case was dropped resolved in a way, he said, that should
serve as a benchmark for other cases concerning free speech.
He added that skepticism toward Turkey appeared to be softening in the
most unlikely of places, noting that France and Germany two countries
where politicians and voters are highly critical of Turkey’s projected
EU membership each awarded the maximum, 12 points, to Turkey’s act
in the recent Eurovision song contest.
Both Romania and Bulgaria have made progress in the key area of
judicial reform, Rehn said, but the EU needs to be sure that the
changes are genuine and likely to last.
Romania has made large strides in the past 18 months, he said, and
Bulgaria has started to do the same, but must stay the course.
Bulgarian legislators had to forgo some vacation last summer to put
necessary changes in place, he noted, and this summer it should be
the prosecutors and judges who stay at work to make convincing changes.
“We can’t say yet that it’s on the right track,” he said. When asked
to specify which changes would convince Brussels, he stressed: “We
can’t start a witch hunt and ask for a certain number of people to
be arrested because that would be against European standards. But we
need to be assured that countries, when they join, have functional
judicial systems.”
As for other Balkan countries Albania and former Yugoslav republics
that are now independent Rehn underlined the importance of sticking
to standards set by agreements such as the Dayton accords that
brought peace to Bosnia after the conflict of the 1990s or the likely
international accord now being negotiated on the status of Kosovo,
the Serbian province that has been under UN administration since 1999.
Asked how Balkan leaders could be expected to stick to such criteria
when the EU itself waives its own rules on such matters as national
budget deficits, Rehn said simply, “Of course, applying double
standards is incorrect and counterproductive.” The difference, he
added, is one of degrees.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress