Author: Emil Lazarian

4 (±1.5%) INFLATION FORECAST IN ARMENIA FOR NEXT 12 MONTHS
ARKA News Agency, Armenia
Nov 7 2006
YEREVAN, November 6. /ARKA/. Despite inflationary pressures,
inflation is expected to range within the planned 4±1.5% during the
next 12 months.
The Central Bank of Armenia (CBA) reports that external inflationary
pressure is maintained despite certain reduction and stabilization
of the world prices for oil products in August 2006. The expected
decrease in the crop yield in Russia and in Ukraine may cause risks.
The CBA Board members pointed out that the economic growth in Armenia
is mainly recorded due to the construction and service sectors. As
a result, the increase in the population’s cash incomes, accompanied
by increase in private transfers, creates inflationary pressures.
Inflationary pressure caused by the agricultural sector is maintained
as well.
In conditions of dramallization (replacement of the USD by the AMD),
the CBA’s policy of satisfying the demand for Armenian drams through
the purchase of foreign-exchange, accompanied by huge on-budget
expenditures, will cause excess liquidity in economy. The CBA Board
members believe that this liquidity is possible to neutralize in
conditions of the current interest rates.
In case the inflationary pressures increase, the CBA will gradually
neutralize their effect during 12 months.
The RA Statistical Service reports that 2.5% inflation was recorded
in Armenia in October 2006 compared to December 2005. The consumer
price index was 106% in October 2006 compared to October 2005.
–Boundary_(ID_tVsv9uXcFJtakKc9Pzc3XA)–
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

IRAN EVENT ON CONSTRUCTION MATERIALS IN YEREVAN
IranMania, Iran
Nov 7 2006
LONDON, November 7 (IranMania) – Iran opened its Seventh Solo
Exhibition on Construction Materials in Yerevan, the capital of
Armenia, on Monday, the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) reported.
Running for a week, the exhibition is displaying construction materials
and urban development equipment presented by over 20 Iranian firms.
At the inaugural ceremony of the exhibition, Iran ambassador to
Armenia, Alireza Haqiqian said that Tehran and Yerevan have managed
to expand trade ties because of attempts made by economic activists
to identify new investment opportunities in industrial sector.
He added that Iranian and Armenian private sectors and industrial
owners play crucial role in the expansion of bilateral ties, and they
can enjoy the support of their respective governments in this field.
Armen Movsesian, Armenian energy minister also said that both nations’
economic relations have significantly grown during the past year.
Movsesian, who is also the chairman of Iran-Armenia Economic
Cooperation Commission, noted that the commission intends to facilitate
bilateral cooperation of the industrialists and develop trade and
economic ties between Iran and Armenia.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

TURKS COOL TOWARDS ‘UNFAITHFUL’ EUROPE
By William Horsley
BBC European Affairs analyst
BBC News, UK
Nov 6 2006
Is Europe losing Turkey? New tensions threaten to harm a strategic
bond that has long been seen as vital to the West’s security.
Turkish membership would show the EU was not just a Christian club
Turkey became a member of the Nato alliance before Germany, and
remains a bastion of stability in a region marked by undemocratic
regimes and plagued by conflicts.
But a year-end deadline for Turkey to make important concessions
in its talks on EU membership is casting doubt on the future of the
country’s integration with Europe, which began back in 1963.
Cyprus is the main sticking-point. Turkey’s relations with Europe
may suffer lasting damage unless a solution is found quickly.
Anti-French anger
In a recent opinion poll only one in three Turks said they definitely
want their country to join the EU – about half the figure in similar
polls two years ago.
France’s bill on Armenian ‘genocide’ denial triggered angry protests
Turkey is the only candidate ever to have been obliged to start
accession talks on the basis that it may never be granted full
membership, even if it passes every test.
And last month the French parliament sought to embarrass Turkey over
the nation’s past history, by voting for a bill which would make it
a crime to deny Turkish responsibility for “genocide” against the
Armenians in World War I. That provoked a wave of angry anti-French
demonstrations in Turkey.
In fact, Europe’s reputation for arrogance among the Turks has united
the main political currents there in protest against what they see as
“unfair” treatment.
Consider these recent statements by influential Turkish figures:
Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said he would rather see
the suspension of the EU membership talks than bow to what he calls
“unreasonable” demands over Cyprus.
Former Turkish president and prime minister Suleyman Demirel says EU
demands for legal rights for Turkey’s Kurdish minority may threaten
the unity of the state, which Turkey “will not accept.”
Onur Oeymen, deputy leader of the opposition Republican People’s Party
and a former ambassador to Nato, accuses the EU of seeking excuses
to delay or block Turkish membership. He complains that Europe’s
present leaders lack “strategic vision”, and fail to understand the
importance of supporting Turkey, as the only secular democracy in
the Muslim world.
Mehmet Ali Birand, a popular TV newscaster, says Turkey has been
faithful to Europe for 45 years, but Europe has not. Now he fears
that Europe is going to “break the dream”.
Marriage hopes
In Europe, the cooling of political attitudes towards Turkey,
fuelled by public fears of immigration and suspicion towards Islam,
has been dramatic.
We will not do it!
Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul on an EU demand to open ports to
Cypriot shipping Some opinion polls suggest that opponents of Turkish
membership account for two-thirds of the population in France, Greece
and Cyprus. In Austria it is around 80%.
A turning-point was last year’s referendums in France and the
Netherlands, when voters rejected the draft EU constitution.
After that, conservative leaders such as Angela Merkel in Germany and
Nicolas Sarkozy in France spoke out loudly against full EU membership
for Turkey, even in 15 or 20 years time.
Turkey’s Muslim make-up has also become an issue.
Hans-Joerg Kretschmer, the EU’s ambassador in Ankara, says Europe
wants to see “for the first time in the history of mankind whether a
Muslim country is able and willing to embrace the values of Western
civilisation”.
But Turkey’s Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul says Turkish EU membership
would prove that the EU “does not belong to a single religion”.
He insists his government is fully committed to a long-term political
“marriage” with Europe, and speaks proudly of Turkey’s radical
pro-European reforms as a “silent revolution”.
Promises
The European Commission itself has praised Turkey for abolishing the
death penalty, taking action against police torture and changing the
constitution to rein in the influence of the army.
But now the Commission is focusing again on shortcomings in Turkish
democracy. It has warned of a “train crash” unless Turkey bends to
EU demands over Cyprus and moves to bolster civil rights.
“We will not do it!” was Mr Gul’s terse reply, when asked whether his
government would fulfil the EU’s demand to end its embargo on ships
from Cyprus using Turkish ports.
“The Europeans must first fulfil their promises”, he said, meaning
that the EU should first take steps to facilitate direct trade with
the Turkish Cypriots in northern Cyprus.
In 2004 the Turkish Cypriots voted in favour of an international peace
plan to unite the divided island. The Greek Cypriots, who represent
the only internationally recognised government there, voted against
the plan but were anyway admitted as EU members. Now they, like every
member-state, hold a veto over Turkey’s progress.
Trade and investment
Still, a “train crash” is not inevitable. Turkish leaders now say they
may amend a much-criticised law banning insults against “Turkishness”,
which has been used against authors who have written critically on
Kurdish and Armenian issues.
Britain, Finland and other supporters of Turkey’s case argue that
its progress must not be seriously held back.
It is clear that the EU itself could hardly escape without damage in
case the relationship turned sour.
Turkey is now one of the most attractive partners for European trade
and investment. French car-makers and Austrian banks are among those
profiting from Turkey’s booming economy and liberalising market.
Michael Lake, a former EU envoy to Turkey, warns that to block Turkey’s
EU prospects would harm the EU’s credibility.
And Onur Oeymen says it would be a massive strategic mistake for the
EU to write Turkey out of its future plans – because then, he said,
“you are going to make Turkey your competitor, if not your enemy”.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

JOURNEY FOR ARMENIAN GENOCIDE ENDED IN THE US
DeFacto Agency, Armenia
Nov 6 2006
A group of Armenian-American activists walking 3,000 miles
cross-country to raise awareness of the Armenian Genocide and other
crimes against humanity concluded their march last week in Washington,
DC.
According to the information DE FACTO got at the Armenian Assembly of
America (AAA), the Journey for Humanity walk had begun four months
ago in Los Angeles, CA with the support of the AAA. Since then, the
marchers crossed a dozen states and held rallies in several major
cities to promote the mission of the Journey, honor the victims and
survivors of all genocidal acts and advance the cause of genocide
prevention.
In Washington, the Armenian Student Network of George Washington
University and others hosted a discussion on genocide in today’s
world featuring the Journey for Humanity team and Sam Bell and Mark
Hanis of the Genocide Intervention Network. The event was held on
Sunday, November 5 at 3:00 pm at the Marvin Center, Continental
Ballroom at George Washington University. Representatives the Save
Darfur coalition, the American Islamic Congress, Citizens for Global
Solutions and the Genocide Intervention Network were also on hand.

ARMAN BABAJANYAN WAITING FOR DEFENSE MINISTRY TO REPLY
Lragir, Armenia
Nov 6 2006
Arman Bajanyan, sentenced to four years in prison for forging documents
and avoiding military service, who is the editor-in-chief of the Time
Yerevan Newspaper, asked the Ministry of Defense to apply the law,
adopted in 2003 which provides for a payment for stopping prosecution
of persons who adoid military service.
“Everyone aged 27, who did not serve in the army between 1992 and 2005,
they have an opportunity to be in any place of the country, America,
Russia or Europe, they can pay this sum through the consular services
and not be prosecuted. If this law can be applied to anyone, it can
be applied to Arman Babajanyan too,” says the attorney. He says the
commission, which studies the applications connected with this law,
is led by the defense minister. Attorney Postanjyan has sent him a
telegram running that Arman Babajanyan has submitted te application and
is ready to pay the required sum. And the required sum is 1 million 800
thousand drams, which may be cut in case the person studied or married
and had children over the given period. The defense ministry is to
reply within a month, 10 days are left. Arman Babajanyan’s attorney
declines to speak about the possibility of rejecting or accepting the
application but she says no cases of rejection have been reported so
far. Zaruhi Postanjyan says she does not know whether the Ministry
of Defense will meet Babajanyan’s application, but she knows that
“our government is not rich enough to sustain one more prisoner.”
If the Ministry of defense meets Babajanyan’s application, the
procuracy has to stop prosecution. However, there is already the
verdict of the court sentencing Babajanyan to four years in prison but
it has not been applied yet because the case still has to be tried by
the Cassation Court. Therefore, Arman Babajanyan is under prosecution.
“If the given person submits the application, even if he is prosecuted,
prosecution muast be stopped. In other words, there is prosecution,
the verdict has not been applied, it means the procuracy should stop
prosecution,” says Zaruhi Postanjyan. His colleague Haik Alumyan
says if the application is met, the Cassation Court must change the
verdict of the first instance court.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

GOVERNMENT DID NOT ORGANIZE OCTOBER 27
Lragir, Armenia
Nov 6 2006
An amazing tendency is observed among the Armenian opposition. The
people who balanced a considerable part of their political career on
the accusations against the government for October 27 are now denying
that they ever accused this government of organizing it. The first
was Aram Z. Sargsyan, Vazgen Sargsyan’s brother, who announced that
he had accused the government of failing to prevent and reveal, not
of organizing. And only a week later another similar statement was
heard November 4 from the opposition camp. This time it came from the
camp of Karen Demirchyan’s followers. The secretary of the People’s
Party Stepan Zakaryan stated November 4 that they never accused the
government of organizing but accused of failure to reveal the case.
And like Galust Sahakyan, Stepan Zakaryan thinks that it was organized
by forces from the outside. He declines to say which outside namely,
saying that there are no definite facts. He says that it is the
“outside”, which would like Armenia to lose independence, adding that
it might be favorable for all the outside forces. And the Armenian
government carried out the instruction from the outside and did
everything to hinder the revelation of the case, thinks the secretary
of the People’s Party. And since the rephrased accusations of the
opposition are already heard more frequently, the week-old observation
by Garnik Isagulyan, adviser to president becomes rather interesting
that when the government is accused of failure to prevent October 27,
first it is necessary to find out who power belonged to before that
date. Isagulyan hints that according to the statements of the same
opposition Karen Demirchyan and Vazgen Sargsyan made decisions in the
country until October 27. In other words, Isagulyan swiftly redirects
accountability for failure to prevent October 27 at the victims.
In this connection Stepan Zakaryan says that the memory of the
opposition is not bad. “Let’s remember who was in charge of security,
who the minister of security was. The minister of home affairs resigned
because he felt he was accountable,” says Stepan Zakaryan.
According to him, it was necessary to see who was in charge of what.
Besides, Stepan Sakaryan advises Garnik Isagulyan the adviser, “The
security adviser should advise Robert Kocharyan that in the current
state of security when Azerbaijan’s military budget exceeds ten
times that of Armenia, the defense minister had better do his job,”
says Stepan Zakaryan.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

OPEN BORDERS ASSUMES DIRECT CONTACTS BETWEEN PEOPLES
Lragir, Armenia
Nov 6 2006
Minister Oskanian Comments on Turkish Foreign Minister Abdullah Gul’s
Recent Remarks
We remain amazed that a letter sent by President Kocharian to Prime
Minister Erdogan in April 2005 remains ignored, simply because the
Turkish authorities did not like the response contained therein,
and do not wish to broaden the scope of discussion beyond history.
President Kocharian clearly said to Prime Minister Erdogan that the
“suggestion to address the past cannot be effective if it deflects
from addressing the present and the future. In order to engage in
a useful dialog, we need to create the appropriate and conducive
political environment. It is the responsibility of governments to
develop bilateral relations and we do not have the right to delegate
that responsibility to historians. That is why we have proposed
and propose again that, without pre-conditions, we establish normal
relations between our two countries.”
In that context, President Kocharian said, “an intergovernmental
commission can meet to discuss any and all outstanding issues between
our two nations, with the aim of resolving them and coming to an
understanding.”
Foreign Minister Gul’s recent comments to RadioLiberty, insisting that
the existence of flights between Armenia and Turkey, and of Armenian
citizens in Turkey, is evidence that ‘the borders are essentially open’
is disingenuous. First, the number of Armenians from Armenia living
and working in Turkey do not approach the numbers he claims. Second,
open borders assumes direct contacts between peoples, unobstructed
relations across the border and a functioning transport infrastructure.
We stand by our response which we consider to be a positive one and
we wonder whether the Turkish insistence on a historical commission
is genuine. After all, we have in fact agreed to discussions on all
issues, in the context of open borders.
Further, so long as Article 301 which criminalizes mere discussion
of the genocide topic remains on the books in Turkey, an invitation
to open dialogue cannot be taken seriously. Finally, outside Turkey,
scholars – Armenians, Turks and others – have studied these issues
and have reached their own independent conclusions. The most notable
among these is the May 2006 letter to Prime Minister Erdogan by the
International Assn of Genocide Scholars wherein they collectively and
unanimously affirmed the fact of the Genocide and called on the Turkish
government to acknowledge the responsibility of a previous government.
In light of these complex realities, we can only repeat our readiness
to enter into dialogue and normal relations with our neighbor.

EX-PRIME MINISTER OF ARMENIA WELCOMES TRANSACTION ON SALE OF 90PCT STAKE IN ARMENTEL TO RUSSIAN VIMPELCOM
ArmInfo News Agency, Armenia
Nov 6 2006
“I welcome this transaction and I am very glad that just a Russian
company has become the owner of the telecommunication operator of
Armenia,” said Armen Darbinyan, the ex-prime minister of Armenia,
Rector of Russian Armenian (Slavonic) University, commenting on sale
of 90pct stake in ArmenTel to Russian VimpelCom.
“I know that VimpelCom is a serious company introducing modern
principles of management. I wish it success in the Armenian market,”
A. Darbinyan said. He expressed regret that in 1998 when Armenia set
ArmenTel for sale, there were no Russian companies to apply for it.
It was probably because the process of initial accumulation of capital
and “distribution” of Russian assets was not over then, A. Darbinyan
supposed. “Approximately in 2001, leading Russian companies started
an active search of additional investment projects, first of all,
in CIS. Of course, the price of this stake was not the same as in
2001, however, Russian companies are ready to pay for expansion,
which is pleasant.”
To recap, the Greek OTE announced about an agreement on sale of 90pct
stake in Armenia to the Russian Vimpel Communications for $381.9
million, including about $40 million financial debts and liabilities
of the company. VimpelCom Vice President for International Investment
Ties Valery Goldin said the company intends to make investments in
improvement of the subscribers net and communication level in Armenia
to meet the Russian standards. High quality standard of the net is
the prior task of the company, he said. The given task applies to
the quality of the technical net, expansion of the service zone to
meet the demand of consumers, development of distribution net and the
payment system, V. Goldin said. Speaking of possible difficulties of
the Greek company in the work in the Armenian market, V. Goldin said
the specifics of the work in the post-Soviet countries is identical.
While, VimpelCom has got relevant experience in the Ukraine,
Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. “It seems to us that we’ll
not have big problems in the Armenian market,” he said with optimism.

POLAND IS READY TO RENDER ASSISTANCE IN ESTABLISHING ARMENIAN-TURKISH RELATIONS: MARSHAL OF POLISH SENATE
ArmInfo News Agency, Armenia
Nov 6 2006
Poland is ready to render its assistance in establishing
Armenian-Turkish relations, said Marshal of the Polish Senate Bogdan
Borusevich at a meeting of Armenian and Polish MPs, Monday.
He said that for this purpose the Polish Foreign Ministry offered
the Armenian Foreign Ministry to present its approaches of Armenia’s
interests in Turkey and Turkey’s interests in Armenia, which would
contribute to establishing relations between the two states and
achieving mutual understanding. The Speaker of the Armenian Parliament
Tigran Torosyan thanked Poland for recognizing the Armenian Genocide
in Ottoman Turkey, 1915, and pointed out that Poland’s offer is very
interesting, but hardly practicable if official Ankara’s position
is taken into account. In this matter, Armenia’s position is known,
said Torosyan and added that official Yerevan is willing to begin a
dialogue with Ankara without any preliminary conditions. Torosyan
considers the Armenian blockade from the side of Turkey, which is
taking steps to join the EU, unacceptable.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

ARMENIA’S MILITARY BUDGET SUFFICIENT FOR ENSURING COUNTRY’S DEFENSE
TREND, Azerbaijan
Nov 7 2006
(ARKA) Armenia’s military budget is sufficient for making the country’s
armed forces strong, Armenian Defense Minister Serge Sargsyan told
journalists on Monday after presenting draft state budget for 2007
to lawmakers.
He said that Azerbaijan’s $1-billion military budget can’t be compared
with Armenian $300 million, but this amount will be enough if spent
reasonably.
The minister also said that greater budget spending is planned for
military purposed, just like for other sector’s needs, reports Trend.
In his words, military expenditures will make 3.5% of GDP every year.
“That’s why the faster economic growth is the greater are expenses
for defense”, Sargsyan said.
He said some 48% of the amount will be earmarked for salaries and
similar expenses. Armenian officers’ salaries are planned to reach
AMD 165 thousand (about $435) in 2007.
Sargsyan also said that Armenia intends to acquire new kinds of
armament and ammunition.
The 2007 state budget envisages AMD 100.4 billion (about $263 million)
for defense.
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress