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IF I WERE THE FOREIGN MINISTER…
| "Turkish Daily News" newspaper (Turkey) | Semih Idiz | 15-Feb-2007 |
I do not know what Mr GÑ=8Cl told his interlocutors at the US Congress
recently while in Washington. But if I were him, all of this and much
more is what I would have said
The following commentary appeared in my column in daily Milliyet a few
days ago. I am translating it here due to popular demand. Many of my
Turkish readers, some influential people among them, said this would be
a good idea. So here goes:
I put myself in the place of Foreign Minister Abdullah GÑ=8Cl the
other day and wondered what I would have said in the U.S. Congress when
pro-Armenian congressmen put Armenian Foreign Minister Vartan Oskanyan’s
article in the Los Angeles Times – in which he bemoans how
Turkey lost an opportunity for dialogue with Armenia after Hrant Dink’s
murder – in front of me.
I decided that what I would have said is probably something like the
following.
`Gentlemen, you are referring to lost opportunities. Just look
at the real world and see what is happening there. While you are taxing
me here over things that happened a century ago, a very important
agreement is being signed at this very moment in Tbilisi for a railway
project that will join Europe and the Far East. Armenia, however, is not
part of this project. You tried to prevent this project by adopting
certain bills against it in this House. So what happened?
`In the same way Caspian oil reaches the world today through
Turkey, the route by which it is does so also bypasses Armenia. You
tried hard to prevent that project too, but failed. To understand how
bad these developments are for Armenia, you should follow the Armenian
media rather than the Los Angeles Times.
`In the meantime, while the Armenians of America, from who you
clearly expect to reap political benefits, are living comfortably here
in the United States, anything up to 70,000 Armenians from Armenia find
themselves having to work in Turkey – where they meet no trouble
– in order to scrape a minimum standard of living.
`In the meantime do not forget that recent opinion polls
conducted by Armenian institutions show that genocide recognition is the
last thing on the minds of average Armenians in Armenia. In other words,
Armenia today is living under great economic difficulties and suffering
the adverse effects of being cut off and isolated from the world.
`It is clear that as long as its government continues to rely
fruitlessly on you and refuses to come to a common understanding with
Turkey on how to proceed in developing bilateral ties, this adverse
situation will continue.
`On the other hand, the tens of thousands who attended the
funeral of the murdered Turkish-Armenian journalist Hrant Dink should
have shown you that there are scores of people in Turkey who are
prepared to look on the events of 1915 from a position of empathy.
`Besides, are not those names you never drop from your lips
– names such as Elif Å=9Eafak, Orhan Pamuk, Halik Berktay,
Taner Akзam, Murat Belge and Hasan Cemal to mention just a few
– themselves Turkish after all?
`What advantage do you hope to reap, therefore, from playing
into the hands of ultra-nationalist diaspora Dashnaks, which in turn
agitates the worst ultra-nationalist elements in Turkey and makes
matters worse than they already are?
`Besides, does the =80=98American way of life’ that you are
all so proud of not require as a minimum standard of decency that one
listen to all the sides in a dispute? This being the case, what could be
more reasonable that Turkey’s request that a commission of historians,
>From Turkey and Armenia as well as other countries, look into the events
of 1915 in order to come to a common understanding?
`If you insist, on the other hand, that =80=98history has
spoken on this topic,’ and not all historians would agree with you, then
are we to throw the views of important historians such as Bernard Lewis
– who are also admired in this country where they have received
many awards – into the garbage can?
`On the other hand do you not see that Armenia’s refusal to
accept a commission of historians, wanting instead a political
commission, hint at a specific agenda beyond the moral one of genocide
recognition?
`Given all that I have said here, are you sure you have properly
assessed the consequences of the step you are about to take –
concerning the Armenian resolution in Congress – which is bound
not only to strain Turkish-U.S. relations, but also Turkish-Armenian
relations further.’
I am not the foreign minister and do not know what Mr. GÑ=8Cl told his
interlocutors at the U.S. Congress recently while in Washington. But if
I were him, all of this and much more is what I would have said.
AZERBAIJAN EITHER WAR BOUND OR LOST
| "Azg" newspaper (Armenia) | Aghavni Harutiunian | 15-Feb-2007 |
At times, even the Azerbaijani diplomacy wakes up 20 days later
The OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairmen Matthew Bryza (USA), Yuri Merzliakov
(Russia), Bernard Facier (France) and Personal representative of OSCE
Chairman-in-office Andrzej Kasprczik will hold another regular
conference in Paris.
According to the information of Andrzej Kasprczik, during the meeting
further steps taken in the negotiation process will be discussed,
including the issues on the coming March meeting of the Armenian and
Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers. The statement about the next meeting of
Oskanian-Mamediarov in March was confirmed also by the Foreign Minister
of Azerbaijan Elmar Mamediarov.
The Azerbaijani diplomat also confirmed that in any case the proposals
regarding the March meeting of Oskanian-Mamediarov were made, and
currently the possibilities of its holding are discussed. We will note
that both the Azerbaijani and Armenian sources emphasize that the venue
for the Ministers’ meeting and the precise dates are still
unknown. It is notable that Elmar Mamediarov, as reported by Azerbaijani
media, mentioned regarding the recent meeting with Oskanian in Moscow
that he had bigger expectations. While the Deputy Foreign Minister Araz
Azimov stated in `correction’ of Mamediarov, that the
January 23 meeting in Moscow was a `step backwards’ in
the negotiation process. Naturally, as Azimov thought, it is the rigid
stance of the Armenian side that is responsible.
The issue in particular concerns the Lachin corridor and the return of
Azerbaijanis to Karabagh. The Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan
holds that the Armenians should agree to the option of the joint usage
of Lachin corridor, while the resolution of Karabagh status is
impossible without `the Azerbaijani community’.
`I would like to inform the Armenian side that if the
negotiations do not continue on the basis of the principles discussed in
the past two years, then it would be senseless to go on with the
negotiations, and it would be wrong to expect any result’, Araz
Azimov noted. Adding that in case the meeting expected in early March is
analogous to the Moscow meeting, its holding loses its sense.
The acting press-secretary of Armenian MFA Vladimir Karapetian qualified
such a statement of Azimov as strange since the comments are made 20
days after the meeting. `We already had an occasion for
assessing the last stage of the negotiations as constructive and
inspiring. The Co-chairs keep to the same opinion. Possibly, before the
coming meeting of the Foreign Ministers Araz Azimov, as it was often the
case, prepared ground for unconstructive position of the Azerbaijani
side’, V. Karapetian noted.
The fact that the Azerbaijani MFA often shows controversial approaches
is not new. However, considering the abundance of the multiple comments
voiced recently on various occasions, there may be an impression that
through such statements the Azerbaijani public is prepared for concrete
events and even for war. I suppose, it is not by accident that the
Defense Minister of Azerbaijan Safar Abiev stated that `the time
has come for resolutely demanding from Armenia to liberate the occupied
territories’.
`THE SILENCE CONSPIRACY’
| "Echo" newspaper (Azerbaijan) | S. Rzaev | 14-Feb-2007 |
Head of public forum `In the Name of Azerbaijan’,
political scientist Eldar Namazov is confident that the cooling period
in the relations between USA and Russia will affect the OSCE Minsk Group
Activity
In early March, the next round of negotiations on the level of Armenian
and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers within the frames of the negotiation
process on peaceful resolution of Karabagh conflict is to be held.
As Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan stated the day before to the local
journalists, now the sides are agreeing on the date and venue of the
coming meeting. Alongside this, Baku obviously does not cherish
particular illusions regarding the efficiency of the coming meeting and
points to the disappointing results of the previous Moscow meeting
(January 22-23, 2007).
Yesterday, the head of public forum `In the Name of
Azerbaijan’, famous political scientist Eldar Namazov spoke
about this and the current state of the negotiation process in the
interview to `Echo’.
– Deputy Foreign Minister of Azerbaijan Araz Azimov stated that the
recent meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers in the
capital of the Russian Federation was a step backwards. "In
counterbalance to the negotiations we have conducted for two years now,
Vartan Oskanian in some issues expressed a position that gets us
backwards", Azimov states. This fact was also indirectly confirmed by
the Foreign Minister of our country, saying that it – the meeting – did
not come up to our expectations… – Nothing extraordinary is happening.
I repeatedly stated: until presidential elections are held in Armenia
and the politicians, who are not hostages of the idea of package
conflict settlement, come to power in Yerevan, we cannot expect anything
really. Today such a hostage is Robert Kocharian – incumbent President
of Armenia.
Thus, until there is a power change, until people with no such
obligations come, the negotiation process will not shift. For the
current authorities, going for the stage-by-stage settlement option is
akin to suicide: they would have to answer the question why they cheated
their people all this time.
– Throughout these two years, Yerevan simply delayed time to reduce the
entire negotiation process to zero point at a concrete stage?
– What the negotiation process is undergoing now may be characterized as
an attempt for `delaying time’ and setting the
impression that the sides may allegedly sign an agreement.
Unfortunately, from time to time such a behavior may be advantageous
both to Baku and Yerevan, or at times even to OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs. A sort of silence conspiracy around the real negotiation
process is formed. From time to time, the sides make statements and
shift the responsibility on each other.
– In your opinion, the actions of Yerevan that Baku spoke about could be
conditioned by some external factors?
– It is no secret that between the two countries OSCE Minsk Group
co-chairs – Russia and USA – a cooling off period started. It
comes from the geopolitical competition of these countries in various
parts of the world, including our region. All this will undoubtedly
impact the efficiency of OSCE Minsk Group.
– Today in our region large projects are implemented, each one of them
`avoiding’ Armenia. Yerevan is obviously in panic over
it. Logically, the Armenian side should introduce correctives in its
position and take the path of constructive dialogue. Armenia is not only
Kocharian but also `inconstant’ Vartan Oskanian?
– Undoubtedly, there is an objective turn for developing the process,
which should certainly impact the public opinion, in this case –
Armenian citizens. However, it is a very complex process. We need to
imagine what was happening in the neighboring country for decades.
Many generations of Armenians grew up in the atmosphere of anti-Turkish
and anti-Azerbaijani propaganda. In this sense, not only Kocharian but
Armenians themselves are hostages of this hysteria. They, the Armenians,
are living in the past.
In this case, it is not about categories of the XX century, but even XIX
century. It is a serious tragedy, which gradually will put Armenia in
isolation from all large regional projects. Stepping over what has been
hammered into their heads since infancy is not that simple. The changes
may happen very slowly, but the process is underway. There are public
figures of Armenia, speaking about the dead end they drove themselves
into.
The nation should reconsider its position and approach to regional
projects. The time will come when each citizen of Armenia will
`get it’ that the regional countries – the
neighbors – have long run forward. Yerevan will gradually be turning
into a regional appendix, which in no way impacts the processes underway
in the South Caucasus. In historical perspective, the Armenian
politicians undoubtedly are on a false route and are driving their
country into an impasse.
THE RAILWAY `GIFTED’ TO TURKEY MAY TURN GEORGIA INTO GYURJISTAN
| `Akhali Taoba’ newspaper (Georgia) | Georgi Udzilauri
| 12-Feb-2007 |
Turkey won a great victory. It became an alternative to Russia, present
in Georgia in the energy sphere, when it built an airport in Tbilisi,
where it invested 62 million dollars and which within a month will be
its property.
The `Kars-Akhalkalaki’ railway, which presupposes
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars is the shortest and cheapest option for transit of the
Central Asia cargo to Europe. Afterwards, there will be just one step
left – getting agreement of Turkmenistan and constructing the
Transcaspian gas pipeline and then putting a full stop to the monopoly
of Russia as a Eurasian energy supplier. While, this will induce radical
changes in the new policy.
Georgia, as one of the main participants of the railway project,
confirmed officially its position on February 7. Agreeing to participate
in the project, Tbilisi gave Turkey the opportunity for showing its
Eurasian power. Unfortunately, in such a grand project, Georgia gets
nothing, while the authorities could reap maximum profit form that.
Today Georgia just got another title of a transit country. After
launching the Kars-Akhalkalaki railway, Georgia should not expect big
budget inputs, since the activities on the Georgian territory will be
conducted due to credit financing of Azerbaijan of 200 million dollars,
which need to be returned within 25 years at one percent credit rate.
This money will be retuned to Azerbaijan through the funds that will
flow into the country by launching the Kars-Akhalkalaki railway. Not
only are the incomes from the railway project low, but it also raised
the big issue of the future of the Georgian seaports, the turnover of
which after the railway launch will inevitably decrease. Anyway, it is
already late to discuss, Sahakashvili had to think about it earlier…
Baku-Tbilisi-Kars railway will be launched sometime in 2010. This period
will be enough for Tbilisi to take actions for defending the interests
of its ports. By that time the Georgian authorities should also achieve
pro-Georgian attitudes emerging in Samtskhe-Javakheti through involving
the local Armenians in the Georgian-Turkish-Azerbaijani project. Though
the Akhalkalaki Armenian separatists threaten project implementation,
the money and economics seem to be above politics, and the opening of
the job places will reduce destabilization risks in the region.
Fortunately, official Yerevan keeps away from the radical steps in the
railway project that will hardly be welcomed by Tbilisi. In such a
situation, it would be better if the Georgian authorities proposed that
Armenians set a gas pipeline from Iran in the Georgian direction and
further on with the access to the Black Sea. Such projects are more
secure, than opening of the Abkhazian railway, what the Armenians
prefer. Besides, such a project would be global and the current
irritation of Yerevan would be smoothed out. It is not a great problem
that US might oppose Iran’s involvement in the big energy
project, the Armenians have a powerful lobby in Washington, so they
might direct these same efforts they used in impeding the implementation
of Baku-Tbilisi-Kars projects for lobbying the construction of the
Iranian gas pipeline. To put it short, Georgia, officially taking
neutral position in the conflict situation between the two neighbors,
could propose to Armenians a project that does not fully meet the
Georgian interests. So it is not really of a great significance how long
the Georgian-Armenian negotiations would last, what is important – both
the Armenians and the Turks would see that Georgia is capable of
defending its interests, thus it might contribute to its
self-affirmation.
The henhouse airport built by the Turkish company was opened yesterday
in a comical ceremony of cutting the red ribbon. All this showed how
strong is Turkey’s influence on Georgia. Even on the third year
of the rose revolution Sahakashvili failed to stop the activity of the
Turkish businessmen in Abkhazia. Though, recently alongside the Turkish
businessmen, the Romanian entrepreneurs are feeling at home in Abkhazia,
to say nothing of the Russian ones. At the same time, the Turkish market
is closed for the Georgians, while the Turkish prisons are open for
them, and it is actually impossible to defend the rights of our citizens
there. Such problems are present between any neighboring states.
However, in contrast to the Georgian government, the governments of
other countries are trying to resolve such problems. Meanwhile, Georgia,
as a participant of the global projects, has many opportunities for
solving these problems. Still, Georgia for Turkey is obviously a
`very cheap’ partner. We will still have problems with
the Turks. Though in the three years after the revolution the Georgian
authorities apparently raised both the prestige and the `cost of
the country’ in the eyes of this big neighbor. Otherwise,
Georgia would have already been turned into `Gurjistan
vilayet’. The Turkish businessmen (the Arabian ones too) proved
that they might stand firm for their interests, that they can rigidly
defend their positions abroad. So they are doing it both in Europe, USA,
and Eastern Europe or Central Asia. If the Georgian authorities are less
concerned with the national interests than with the Turkish geopolitical
plans, Georgia will face the same menace, which made it get alienated
>From Russia, with the only difference that it will be much harder to
gain distance from Turkey than it was from Moscow.
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