Author: Emil Lazarian

According to reports and videos, Israeli forces also attacked the port of Bandar Abbas, which is the largest sea hub.

According to experts, this will cause quite serious consequences for the region, not only from a strategic point of view, but also from an economic point of view.

Political scientist, energy expert Vahe Davtyan 168․amin a conversation with “Bandar Abbas is Iran’s largest economic hub, providing nearly half of the country’s foreign trade. It is also one of the critical points of the Strait of Hormuz, so the strike can be seen as a response to Tehran’s closure of the strait.

The Shahid-Raja section of Bandar Abbas port is especially important, which is the main export hub for oil, gas and petrochemical products.

This is also a blow to the “North-South” international logistics corridor, one of the central beneficiaries of which is Iran itself.”

Vahe Davtyan reminded that in 2025, the total volume of container transportation increased by about 60 percent, but today, in the current situation, a drop of about 30 percent is expected, and the paralysis of the port makes that scenario even more pessimistic.

“The disruption of the port also affects regional trade ties. for example, Armenia-Middle East trade flows passing through the Persian Gulf may be significantly reduced.

This, in particular, also refers to the weapons imported from India, which today make up about 45 percent of the military imports of Armenia,” the specialist added.

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Ayatollah, the late supreme spiritual leader of Iran, who was killed by Israeli airstrikes on February 28 Ali Khamenei son Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, electing a new supreme leader is a very clear external message from Tehran that Iran is uncompromising in its policy and is not a country that will back down to pressure. About this 168 TVof Revue mentioned on the air of the program political analyst Aram Shahnazaryanspeaking about the ongoing Iranian-Israeli-American war and the general situation in Iran.

According to Aram Shahnazaryan, 56-year-old Mojtaba Khamenei, who is the second son of Ali Khamenei, is a Shiite cleric, has the highest religious rank of Iran, which professes the Shiite branch of Islam, is Ayatollah, and was engaged in religious science in his life, but also had great political influence. According to Shahnazaryan: Mojtaba Khamenei has been one of the key figures of Iran’s deep state over the years։

According to the political analyst, the election of Mojtaba Khamenei can be considered a very serious victory for the Iranian people.

“The message was very clear. If you remember, from the very first day of the war, the goal was one: to overthrow the political and military leadership of Iran, this time with the country’s first person, the deceased leader, to achieve collapse and a change of power, or, as Trump stated, a person “acceptable” to him should be the next leader. This election was a very clear message that Iran is not a country that will succumb to pressure, Iran is not a country with which you can speak with the language of threats, Iran is not a country where you can kidnap the leader like Venezuela, or in the case of Iran, kill the leader and appoint the person you want as the head of the country. This was also a clear message that Iran will continue its foreign policy direction and there will not be any changes in that direction, Iran will maintain its regional role,” commented Aram Shahnazaryan.

According to the Iranian-Armenian figure, in response to the military aggression, the logic of Iran’s actions is clear: the price of this war must be paid not only by the United States and Israel, but by the entire international community.

Speaking about the risks arising from the war and the dangers and threats of further destabilization of the regional security of the Greater Middle East, the political analyst emphasizes that what started on February 28 was a regional war from the beginning and continues as a regional war, and even some experts believe that this is the de facto Third World War.

In this context, Aram Shahnazaryan talked about the most important and interesting issues from the Armenian point of view: will the “fire” of the Iranian war spread to the north, what challenges does it cause especially for the security and interests of Armenia, and how does it affect the South Caucasus region?

The analyst mentioned the events of March 5 in Nakhijevan, the drone strikes on the territory of Nakhijevan, expressing the opinion that it was a provocation against Iran. According to Aram Shahnazaryan, Iran does not need a new war front. It is, of course, about whether what happened in Nakhichevan was not an Israeli or Azerbaijani provocation to create an occasion for Azerbaijan to start a war against Iran in order to get involved in a military adventure against Iran.

According to Aram Shahnazaryan, it is only a matter of time before Azerbaijan and Turkey get involved in the war.

“As for Nakhijevan, I think it was a provocation, definitely a provocation. It was a provocation by whom, Israel, Israel-American, or Azerbaijan, but in any case it was a provocation to open a new front against Iran. You know, Iran does not need a new front in this war. They will not avoid it, but it is not necessary. Let’s take into account the statement of the Central Headquarters of the Armed Forces of Iran after that, which warned Azerbaijan that “we did not strike, but we warn you: remove the Zionists from your territory, because they can provoke everything, and you will be the bearers of the direct consequences of this provocation.”

We had occasion to raise the issue that not only Nakhijevan, but also the three airports operating in the territory of our occupied Artsakh Republic, what was the point of building three airports in that small area?

Obviously they are being used for military purposes, and obviously they are being used by Israel, and if they start using it against Iran, yes, they will definitely target it, and if, God forbid, the war takes a wider course and expands further, if, God forbid, it happens that the American-Israeli side can achieve even 1 percent of its goals, that is, social collapse and a change of government, I am sure that this will not happen, but we must discuss every option, I am sure that it is only a matter of time before Azerbaijan and Turkey get involved in this war, and it will be a matter of time, unfortunately, that military operations will also begin In the direction of Syunik.

I see that danger and speak about it with full responsibility. The simplest scenario: they will announce that “we are creating a security buffer zone, we are entering to secure our borders,” Aram Shahnazaryan believes.

As the political analyst comments, theoretically there is a possibility of ground military operations against Iran, a land invasion by the US-Israel coalition or their “proxy” forces, but in practice “it’s a crazy thing”, remembering Iran’s huge territory of about 1 million 650 thousand square kilometers, more than 90 million people, geographical relief, military potential and many, many other factors.

According to Aram Shahnazaryan, Iran is ready for a very long war, even for years.

Shahnazaryan considers Trump’s “cowboy approach” to the issue of Iran to be ridiculous, noting that the US president’s statements show that he does not know the Iranian people and Iranian culture. The interlocutor emphasizes that the psychology, culture, value system of the Iranian people should be recognized. In this context, he also mentioned the manipulation of the religious factor in the context of war by the Trump administration, noting that the American society has become a prisoner of extremist sectarian movements.

Full interview in the video.

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The world is watching these days how Iran is subjected to the aggression of the United States and Israel. At the same time, the picture is Iran’s resistance to a tandem of countries vastly superior in resources, one of which is a nuclear superpower.

However, the subject of my attention here is not the political aspect of this war or the military-political, geopolitical layers. The basis of Iran’s resistance is not only the will of the Iranian people and the elite, but the potential of the Iranian economy. An economy that has been under severe international sanctions for more than 40 years, but which during those years has been endowed with the industrial potential to withstand a nuclear superpower and strike back, has the potential for long-term resistance.

All this is due to Iran’s industrial capacity, because it is the industry that has ensured the availability of such a volume of military products that ensures resistance. Being under severe sanctions for decades, Iran has managed to build such an economy, such an industrial system, which has allowed it to have tangible self-sufficiency.

Moreover, this is not only the issue of the military industry. In order to have a military industry, to develop a military-industrial complex, one must first have a viable industrial complex and traditions in general. Moreover, one can imagine how much more the Iranian economy could have been if there was a more favorable and wider environment for attracting foreign investments, if there were no sanctions.

This example is essentially not identical to Armenia in its scale, but in terms of challenges, it is quite comparable. After all, Armenia is also dealing with a security environment, a set of challenges arising from that environment, which exceed Armenia’s potential several times. Therefore, an industrialized economy that will ensure self-sufficiency as much as possible is imperative for Armenia.

And Armenia, unlike Iran, has a more open environment for attracting investments, it is not under sanctions. Moreover, Armenia itself benefits from the fact that, for example, Russia is under sanctions. But Armenia benefits from it only through the logic of “speculation”, not productivity, creating value, developing industrial potential. That is why the volume of trade and services is increasing in Armenia, and foreign investments are decreasing, which would be aimed at the prospects of creating industrial and production value in Armenia, adding “heavy weight” to the economy.

Because in the conditions of complex and disproportionate security challenges, it is not tourism, for example, but the heavy industrialized economy that makes the state resilient. Not only would Iran today not be able to withstand the challenges thrown at it, if instead of giving a boost to the types of industry, for example, it thought of just giving a boost to tourism and services, it would also suffer enormous losses, as the first instability would hit those sectors.

This does not mean at all that these sectors should not be developed in the country. All sectors must develop. But, when we talk about the existential, ontological strength of the state, there is no doubt that its basis can only be the “weighted economy” with a rich sectoral backbone of various “shades” of industry.

Moreover, the example of an industrial, heavy economy is not about producing tanks and missiles, but simply about developing industrial, production potential. Because the resilience of the state is a complex phenomenon, it is not measured only by tanks and missiles. Industrial potential is investment in value-creating economic processes. In that sense, Armenia has especially recently failed to work with investors, which is evidenced by the lack of investments.

Those failures are covered with cult-like conversations and festival “exotics” of the service sector. And in order to be a viable and competitive state, these sectors can be an important coupling of the economy, but never a locomotive.

Hakob Badalyan

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