Author: Emil Lazarian

Imagine spending more than three months of this winter with empty grocery store shelves, lack of medicines at the local pharmacy, and a shortage of every other daily basic good needed. Imagine living with no heat for much of the day and night in frigid temperatures, no fuel in the car to travel to a doctor’s appointment or to a place of employment, no internet to perform work and school tasks, or to communicate with loved ones. For one-hundred days and counting, this has been the reality for the 120,000 people living within the borders of a beautiful mountainous territory called Nagorno Karabagh, an historically Armenian populated enclave which lies within the borders of present-day Azerbaijan, adjacent to the country of Armenia.

I had the good fortune to live and work alongside the people of Nagorno Karabagh for several months late last year while engaged in a health care project. They are a hardworking, generous, religious people, many living a traditional mountain village life on a land they have been tied to for centuries. They are a people who have endured two wars since the breakup of the Soviet Union, the last in 2020, when the country of Azerbaijan supported by Turkey and other regional powers, unleashed a 44-day attack on the area that took the lives of over 5000 of their men and women. Each day during our village clinic sessions, stories were told of loved ones lost or badly wounded, displacement from homes or towns, loss of livelihood, and much more. Because Azerbaijan now occupies all the land surrounding Nagorno Karabagh, many of the clinics were conducted within view of Azerbaijan military posts, a source of constant anxiety for the population given the periodic attacks on the villages. Rather than being angry, bitter or desiring revenge, the refrain I heard repeatedly from the people was, “we simply want to live in peace.”

Instead, on Dec. 12, 2022, Azerbaijan began a complete blockade of the only road connecting Nagorno Karabagh to the country of Armenia and the outside world, placing a stranglehold on an entire population in attempt to remove them from their ancestral homeland. During this time, Azerbaijan has also repeatedly disrupted the gas and electricity supply to the area, as well as internet service. As a result, hospitals and clinics cannot supply needed services. Schools have closed. Food is being rationed. Businesses are shuttered. Organizations such as Genocide Watch and the Lemkin Institute have issued repeated warnings of genocide. Our own State Department, along with the European Union, United Nations, the World Council of Churches, the Vatican, Human Rights Watch and many others, have called for an end to the blockade, yet the humanitarian crisis continues.

While the horrific events in Ukraine are rightly covered vigorously by the press and are a regular focus for our politicians, the above story, also taking place in the former Soviet Union, has largely remained out of the media. It also has not triggered actions by our elected officials similar to those taken against Putin and Russia for its gross human rights violations. To make matters worse, the hard-earned tax dollars of every Wisconsin and US worker is flowing into the hands of the Azerbaijan leadership responsible for this attempt at ethnic cleansing. While our country defends democracy and human rights in Ukraine against a brutal dictator, we are in effect doing the opposite in Nagorno Karabagh by using our dollars to support and reward a dictator who inflicts suffering on a people governed by democratic principles.

Our politicians, the media, and the global community can and must do better. We as citizens can do our part by contacting local and national media to request they report on this story, in hopes that shining a light on the blockade will assist in ending it. Likewise, we must relentlessly contact our politicians—including the White House, State Department, Senators Baldwin and Johnson, the Congressional Representative of your district—until they speak up forcefully against Azerbaijan for its conduct, and back those words with all necessary actions to end the blockade and secure a lasting future for these people in their homeland. Our demands should include an immediate end to the handing over of dollars we work so hard for, to a government intent on committing genocide.

Through these actions, we can do our part to end the blockade, bring peace to the people of Nagorno Karabagh, and avoid adding another tragic chapter to human history.

Nick Akgulian, MD, is a long-time family physician in the Racine area who has spent several years abroad on health care projects in Belize, Armenia and most recently Nagorno Karabagh.

YEREVAN, Armenia —After 30 years of bilateral diplomatic relations, Azerbaijan—a predominantly Muslim nation that uses its vast oil wealth to buy Israeli drones and other weaponry—on Wednesday formally established its embassy in Tel Aviv.

Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and his counterpart from Baku, Jeyhun Bayramov, led the opening ceremony, with Bayramov highlighting their strong relationship built on “dialogue and mutual understanding.”

Yet with far less fanfare, the Jewish state is also quietly restoring its political and economic ties with Azerbaijan’s arch-enemy, Armenia.

Rising interest in this ancient landlocked nation coincides with Armenia’s booming economy, fueled by an influx of software engineers from nearby Russia who are eager to escape deteriorating conditions at home ever since their country invaded Ukraine more than a year ago.

At least 150,000 Russian professionals, and maybe more, have fled here—often with their families in tow—since the war broke out on Feb. 24, 2022. But Russia’s loss is Armenia’s gain. This mountainous, landlocked Caucasus republic of 3 million—an imperfect but lively democracy with an ancient alphabet and a fledgling tech sector—has benefitted handsomely from Russia’s brain drain.

For one thing, the new arrivals have helped push Armenia’s GDP growth to 13% last year, even as it remains mired in a simmering conflict of its own with neighboring Azerbaijan; the last major war between the two ex-Soviet republics erupted in 2020 and killed an estimated 6,000 people on both sides. Meanwhile, Armenian exports to Russia tripled to $2 billion in 2022 compared to a year earlier, and remittances in the other direction quadrupled to $3.2 billion.

“This influx of Russians is a mini-version of what happened in Israel after the Soviet collapse,” said Ashot Arzumanyan, a partner and co-founder at SmartGate VC, a venture capital fund that invests in startups involved in everything from AI and robotics to biotech manufacturing.

“So many scientists and engineers left the USSR and settled in Israel. That set off a very strong wave of talent and initiative,” said Arzumanyan, whose fund is currently seeking $15-30 million from high-net worth individuals, including many in southern California’s large and influential Armenian diaspora. “Something similar is happening in Armenia—lots of really talented people moving here and becoming part of Armenia’s tech scene.”

The program for 2023 includes 21 activities, of which 15 will take place in Greece and 6 in Armenia, and concern:

• Joint training of Special Forces – Special Operations Forces.
• Co-training on Electronic Warfare.
• Participation in the Multinational Training Centre for Peace Support Operations.
• Exchange of experiences and lessons in Air Defence Systems.
• Staff exchange and visits to schools and multinational schools, as well as seminars.
• Staff meetings and talks on matters of mutual interest, with special emphasis on the field of Military Intelligence.

Tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia are threatening to destabilize the South Caucasus, prompting some to worry that Iran could eventually be pulled into a wider regional conflict. But is Iran really prepared to invade its Shia-majority neighbor to protect Armenia, or are recent military moves little more than bluster?

While Azerbaijan’s military continues to capture parts of Nagorno-Karabakh – internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan despite being under Armenian control for three decades – leaders in the energy-rich country accuse the Islamic Republic of amassing troops near its exclave of Nakhchivan, on Iran’s northwestern border.

Tehran hasn’t denied the allegations. On the contrary, the al-Quds Force – one of five branches of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) – has reported that its bases near the Armenia-Azerbaijan border are on high alert for a possible attack.

Heavy logistical movements of the Azerbaijani army raised concerns in Iran that an operation against Armenia was imminent, and IRGC commander Brigadier-General Mohammad Pakpour visited the area last Friday.

There are even reports that IRGC forces in Iran’s provinces of East and West Azerbaijan – where ethnic Azeris make up most of the population – have been ordered to full combat readiness. 

But despite the recent spike in tensions, the current situation in the South Caucasus remains manageable, and Iran’s calculations are more strategic than tactical. At least for now. 

Azerbaijan uses the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as a way to pressure Armenia to build its section of the Nakhchivan corridor, a land route that would connect mainland Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan via southern Armenia’s province of Syunik. If built under Baku’s terms, the corridor would in effect cut off Iran from Armenia, something that Alireza Monadi, a representative of the Iranian city of Tabriz, said Tehran “will not allow.”

(Indeed, Mohammad-Reza Mirtajodini, Iran’s former vice-president for parliamentary affairs, has even called for Tehran to annex Nakhchivan in response.) 

The IRGC was even more direct. On its official Telegram channels, the Revolutionary Guard posted open threats to Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev over his “hostile actions against Armenia.” Iran seems determined to prevent a potential Azerbaijani attack on southern Armenia, though it remains unclear how far it might go to avert such a scenario.

The reason for Iran’s concern is simple: Azerbaijan’s control over southern Armenia would jeopardize Tehran’s positions in the South Caucasus, and pose an existential threat to the Islamic Republic itself.

In the north, Iran would be completely surrounded by Turkic countries, and Tehran fears that Azerbaijan could eventually allow Israel to use its territory for attacks on the Islamic Republic. Already, Azerbaijan is strengthening its military and intelligence relations with Israel – Iran’s arch-enemy. 

If Tehran turns a blind eye to Azerbaijani-Israeli cooperation, such a move could be interpreted as a sign of weakness. That’s why Tehran is expected to continue flexing its military muscles in the region – aiming to demonstrate that the territorial integrity of Armenia is Iran’s red line.

Time may be on Iran’s side, as the only major incident recently was in Nagorno-Karabakh, where Azerbaijani forces took “urgent measures” to prevent the construction of a road to bypass the Lachin corridor – the only road connecting Armenia with Nagorno-Karabakh.

For now, diplomacy appears to be the desired course of action. On March 11, Azerbaijan’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador in Baku to protest against the presence of an Iranian warplane over the disputed area. 

Earlier this year, Azerbaijan closed its embassy in Tehran and evacuated staff and their families after a gunman stormed the diplomatic mission, killing the security chief and wounding two guards. Thus diplomatic relations between the two neighbors remain tense, and both sides occasionally add fuel to the fire.

The question now is whether diplomacy will be enough to pull all sides back from the brink. Azerbaijan has considered engaging ethnic Azerbaijanis living in Iran as instruments against the Islamic Republic.

Last November, President Aliyev stressed that Azerbaijan would “do everything to protect the rights, freedoms, and security of Azerbaijanis living abroad, including Azerbaijanis in Iran.” His statement was a direct message to the Islamic Republic, designed to show that Baku has significant leverage in, and over Tehran. 

Iran, for its part, could use the Shia factor as its trump card against Azerbaijan. But this could backfire, given that Baku frequently arrests members of Shiite groups that are allegedly planning to carry out acts of sabotage and disruption under the guise of religion.

If, however, Iran decides to raise the stakes and attack Israeli-backed Azerbaijan under any pretext, it risks an open confrontation with a country that will be strongly supported not only by Israel, but also by NATO member Turkey.

Thus policymakers in Tehran will have to think twice before taking any action in the South Caucasus. Direct confrontation can be avoided, but only if cooler heads prevail.

This article was provided by Syndication Bureau, which holds copyright.