Author: Ekmekjian Janet

Corriere della Sera, Italy
Sept 11 2008

Europe and Moscow, the Danger Hour

by Alberto Ronchey

If Mikheil Saakashvili’s Georgian Government made a mistake in the
August war with its military operation against separatism in South
Ossetia, Vladimir Putin has made an even more serious mistake with the
prolonged invasion of Georgia, a fully sovereign country. That is the
prevailing opinion where the apportionment of blame is concerned. But
what are the consequences?

For the time being the international dispute seems to be restricted to
posturing: witness the display of fleets in the Black Sea, as well as
Russia’s recent decision to deploy 7,600 troops in the separatist
regions. Putin has exposed the excessive whimsicality and the
inconsistencies in Western diplomacy. But now, according to an
analysis conducted by several observers, there are some dangerous
unknowns looming for Moscow. Pro-Russian South Ossetia, drunk on
triumph, may clash with restless Ingushetia. Chechnya appears to have
been tamed, but not completely and in any case only after the
demolition of Groznyy, an experiment that cannot be repeated in any
other situation. The way Russia is looming over the Caucasus, posing
as "big brother," is sparking not only apprehension but mistrustful
responses also on the part of the Armenians and of the Azeris. And
that is not all. Once South Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s independence from
Georgia has been sanctioned by decree from Moscow, we may well wonder
how many still latent rebellions or how many disputes over the right
to secede may hit the Russian Federation itself, with its myriad
ethnic groups spread out over as many autonomous republics on two
continents.

The August war has also caused Moscow some more or less "collateral"
financial damage. Finance Minister Aleksey Kudrin himself acknowledged
that in the first two days after the invasion of Georgia, some 7
billion dollars worth of foreign capital was taken out of Russia. Then
it was learned that over the days following the invasion Moscow’s
currency reserves dropped by some 16.4 billion dollars. Naturally, the
energy superpower still has huge resources to bring effective pressure
to bear in furthering its influence on the international stage, albeit
not without risk. Yet despite Putin’s optimism, Russia’s domestic
economy does not appear to be at all stable, with inflation running at
14.7 per cent.

In strategic and geopolitical terms, the biggest controversy today is
over whether or not to take Georgia into NATO along with Ukraine (and
this, despite the fact that Ukraine is split between pro-Russians and
pro-Westerners). There is no majority of European governments in
agreement over the issue, because it is an issue that demands special
caution. Pushing NATO’s western borders even closer to Russia entails
the danger of triggering an exasperated spurt of national pride on
"Greater Russia’s" part. And we are not just talking about Putin’s or
the military oligarchy’s neonationalism, but about a grassroots
sentiment centuries old.

This raises a complex dilemma for the West. Might failing to further
expand NATO placate the Russian patriots, who are irritated enough as
it is with "the volteface of history" which smashed Moscow’s
traditional power in the nineties? Or might Western moderation not
encourage the nationalist extremists also in their claiming the right
to enforce a return to the doctrine of "limited sovereignty" on their
neighbours? Faced with questions like that, we must steer clear of
formulating a hasty response.

[translated from Italian]

ATTENTION OF PACE TO ARMENIA DECLINES BECAUSE OF GEORGIAN EVENTS

Noyan Tapan

Se p 12, 2008

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 12, NOYAN TAPAN. A brief dicsussion on Armenia
at the September 11 sitting of the PACE Monitoring Committee was
conditioned by the fact that the attention to Armenia has declined as
a result of the conflict between Georgia and South Ossetia. This was
pointed out by representatives of various political forces of the RA
National Assembly during the September 12 parliamentary briefings.

The member of "Prosperous Armenia" faction Naira Zohrabian said that
Armenian authorities have made progress in the fulfilment of PACE
resolutions 1609 and 1620 which is evident from the fact that the
problem of Armenia will not be discussed by urgent order at the PACE
plenary session scheduled for late September.

In the opinion of the member of "Orinats Yerkir Party" faction
Hovhannes Margarian, some progress has been registered, although
there are numerous unsolved problems. The deputy said that the CE
Commissioner for Human Right spoke about the necessity to create
a fact-finding group of experts to conduct an inquiry into the
March 1 events. The group will be composed of an equal number of
representatives of the ruling coalition, "Heritage" faction and the
Armenian National Congress.

In the words of the member of "Heritage" faction Zaruhi Postanjian,
progress in the fulfilment of the indicated points of PACE resolitons
is out of the question. Moreover, the addition that the parliament
passed yesterday to the Law on Television and Radio was a regress.

SERZH SARSGYAN: ATTEMPTS TO CHANGE OSCE MG FORMAT CAN CAUSE SERIOUS PROBLEMS

PanARMENIAN.Net
11.09.2008 16:55 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Armenian President Serzh Sarsgyan met Thursday
with Greek Foreign Minister’s commissioner Nicolaos Kalantzianos,
the RA leader’s press office told PanARMENIAN.Net.

"I arrived in Armenia to discuss your expectations from Greek
presidency in the OSCE next year and also to exchange views on recent
regional developments," Mr Kalantzianos said.

For his part, President Sargsyan said that Armenia attaches importance
to cooperation with the OSCE, whose Minsk Group deals with resolution
of the Nagorno Karabakh conflict. "The state of neither peace nor
war has been maintained for 14 years thanks to the MG, which has the
potential to resolve the conflict, while attempts to transfer the
process to other instances can cause serious problems," he said.

The two also discussed the Armenian-Greek cooperation.

WORLD VISION ARMENIA TO MARK 20TH ANNIVERSARY ON SEP 15

ARKA
Sep 10, 2008

YEREVAN, September 10. /ARKA/. The World Vision Armenia NGO marks its
20th anniversary on September 15, the organization’s press service
reports.

WVA works in six Armenian regions and 130 communities in Yerevan,
assisting over 22,000 children and families. WVA programs aim
at improving the country’s healthcare system, fostering economic
development, protecting children and preserving Christian traditions.

Local officials, guests form Diaspora, international donors,
representatives of local and foreign non-profit organizations, as well
as WVI President Dean Hirsch and WVA Country Director Mark Kelly will
participate in the September 15 reception.

The organization will briefly introduce the guest to its achievements
and nearer-term goals. WVA will show a short documentary on
the problems of rural children and inmates of Gyumri and Yerevan
children’s homes.

World Vision Global Fund has granted $7.2mln to WVA to help Armenia’s
Healthcare Ministry carry out HIV/AIDS prevention programs.

USAID has donated $6.2mln to WVA programs in Armenia’s remote regions.

RAZMIK ZOHRABIAN: RAMS NEVER LEAD AN ARMY OF LIONS

Noyan Tapan

Se p 10, 2008

YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 10, NOYAN TAPAN. The Republican Party of Armenia
(RPA) made a decision about inexpediency of the further activities of
Tigran Torosian as the speaker of the RA National Assembly based on
the tactics of the party’s personnel policy, the deputy chairman of
RPA Razmik Zohrabian said at the September 9 press conference at Hayeli
Club. "We decide our personnel policy themselves within the party. Our
party has strict regulations and discipline, and we all must obey it,"
he added, not explaining the reason for the "inexpediency".

He drew a parallel with a football team: when the coach changes
a player, it does not mean that he plays badly. According to him,
T. Torosian worked quite well, while holding that post, and there is
no problem of justifying or not justifying. "The chairman proposed,
while the executive body discussed and agreed," he noted. In the
words of R. Zohrabian, the party has a strong leader who unites many
leaders. "A strong person should lead the strong, it never happens
that rams lead an army of lions. We obey a strong leader, especially
as he is the president of the country and knows many state secrets,
maybe there is something that was not said at the executive body,
this is the right of the country’s president," he said.

To recap, the decision to replace T. Torosian by a newly-elected deputy
of the National Assembly, the former chief of the RA presidential
staff Hovik Abrahamian has to be approved at the sitting of the RPA
board scheduled for September 16.

R. Zohrabian did not consider the visit of Turkish President Abdullah
Gul to Armenia as a diplomatic victory. "It was just a start of
relations, and we welcome it," he said.

PROJECT RUSSIA AND DOMINO EFFECT
by Sergei Markedonov

WPS Agency, Russia
DEFENSE and SECURITY (Russia)
September 10, 2008 Wednesday

WILL SELF-DETERMINATION OF ABKHAZIA AND SOUTH OSSETIA SET A PRECEDENT
FOR SEPARATIST MOVEMENTS IN THE POST-SOVIET ZONE?; Recognition of
South Ossetia and Abkhazia will have no effect on other countries
but may be used against Russia itself.

A precedent was set by which the borders of the former republics
of the erstwhile USSR could be altered. What the post-Soviet world
counted on as unfaltering ever since December 1991 is history now. The
argument that Russia alone recognized two formerly Georgian autonomies
carries no weight. Turkey alone recognized the Turkish Republic of
North Cyprus in 1983, but this formation has been a major player in
the Black Sea – Mediterranean Sea politics ever since. The fact that
South Ossetia and Abkhazia are recognized by a permanent member of
the UN Security Council that wields veto power, an Atomic Club member,
and a global player to boot only strengthens their positions.

The self-determination of South Ossetia and Abkhazia raises some
delicate questions. Will it set a precedent for separatist or
nationalist movements on post-Soviet territory? Will the recognition
of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Moscow cause the so called Domino
Effect in Russia itself and particularly in the Russian Caucasus? The
ethnic-political situation in Georgia is anything but ideal because
its Javakhetia has predominantly Armenian population, Kvemo Kartli is
mostly Azerbaijani, and the Panki Gorge is where the Kista Chechens
have always lived.

Practically every CIS state has its own skeleton in the "ethnic"
cupboard. Moldova and Azerbaijan have unsolved territorial conflict
areas on their territories. Wayward Trans-Dniester region and
Nagorno-Karabakh meanwhile design their own tactics and strategies
of getting the coveted international recognition. Situation in the
Russian Caucasus (Ingushetia, Dagestan) is quite volatile too.

Russians in Ukraine and Kazakhstan, Uzbeks in Kyrgyzstan, Ukrainians in
Moldova, representatives of Caucasus peoples in Russia and Azerbaijan
do not always feel at home in their new post-Soviet countries for
various reasons (which does not really matter.) Hence the quite
reticent reaction in the post-Soviet republics to the recognition of
Abkhazia and South Ossetia as sovereign states.

Squashing emotions over the so called Domino Effect, however, we
must admit that successful self-determination of South Ossetia and
Abkhazia is going to have no visible effect on territorial integrity
of any state in Eurasia.

It will take grave administrative and political errors for
separatism to revive in Russia. Errors are made of course, and
not just in the Caucasus alone. Fortunately, the situation is not
yet irreversible. Success of Project Russia depends on ourselves –
powers-that-be and civil society – and on nobody else. A precedent,
however, is a different matter. Sure, formally recognizing two Georgian
autonomies as foreign states, the Kremlin took certain risks and knew
it. After all, this precedent may be used against Russia any moment
now. The Caucasus these days is in grave danger from radical Islam,
closeness of the regional authorities and their disinclination to apply
modern methods of governance and initiate a dialogue with society.

It is necessary to draw a line between the policy of the United
States (and, to a lesser extent, the EU) we will have to try and
negate on the one hand and the demand for political modernization of
the country. The absence of this "division" will only facilitate the
degradation of the Russian officialdom. It and only it will make the
precedent explode in Russia’s face.

REACTIONS DIFFER: RUSSIA’S RECOGNITION OF SOUTH OSSETIA AND ABKHAZIA HAS SPARKED A LOT OF REACTION IN NAGORNYY KARABAKH
by Kristine Khanumyan

Haykakan Zhamanak
Aug 29 2008
Armenia

The NKR [Nagornyy Karabakh republic] foreign ministry has issued
a statement, welcoming "the fact of Ossetia’s and Abkhazia’s
independence" and emphasizing that it "fully complies with the
fundamental principles of people’s right to self-determination and
international law, prescribed in the documents of the UN, OSCE and
other international organizations".

…

Vahram Atanesyan, the chairman of the NKR parliament’s foreign
relations committee, told us that hearings will be held in parliament
today [29 August] with the participation of the parliamentary factions
and political forces not represented in parliament. Atanesyan said
that the hearings are connected with Russia’s recognition of South
Ossetia and Abkhazia and, in that context, the steps towards the NKR’s
recognition. What should be decided is, if Karabakh were to appeal
to Russia with a request to recognize the NKR, or if Karabakh were
to approach Armenia with that request, whether diplomatic relations
should be established with South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

Official positions of Armenia and Karabakh over the recognition
of South Ossetia and Abkhazia have sparked mixed reaction in the
NKR. Atanesyan, for example, says that Karabakh foreign ministry’s
statement was appropriate and in line with the international
practice. When asked if Armenia should recognize the NKR, Atanesyan
said: "I am not in the position to assess what Armenia’s position
would be. I can only speak about the NKR’s appeal to Armenia. This
is something that can’t be agreed upon in one day. But such a moment
may come".

…

The NKR parliament’s only independent member Gegham Baghdasaryan says
the NKR foreign ministry’s statement was not normal. "The statement
came very late. Initially they made very soft statements, and there
was no clear position."

ARMENIAN NUCLEAR PLANT SUSPENDS WORK DUE TO MAINTENANCE

ArmInfo News Agency (in Russian)
Sept 8 2008
Armenia

Yerevan, 8 September: The operation of the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant
[NPP] has been suspended for 85 days at 0050 on 5 September [1950 gmt
4 September] due to a complete overhaul, the director-general of the
NPP, Gagik Markosyan, told our correspondent today.

Markosyan said that it was planned to unload nuclear fuel and inspect
the nuclear reactor’s core. The major overhaul of the nuclear reactor
is carried out once in four years. He added that it was also planned to
carry out a chemical washing of all the six steam generators, install
and put into operation a new leak detection system on the reactor,
repair diesel generators, which is carried out once in eight years,
as well as to carry out other maintenance work.

EDVARD NALBANDIAN AND GORAN LENNMARKER DISCUSSED KARABAKH CONFLICT SETTLEMENT PROCESS

DeFacto Agency
Sept 8 2008
Armenia

YEREVAN, 08.09.08. DE FACTO. The issues referring to the Karabakh
conflict settlement process were discussed on September 6 at the RA
FM Edvard Nalbandian’s meeting with the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly
Special Representative for Karabakh conflict issues Goran Lennmarker.

According to the RA MFA Press Office, in the course of the meeting
Minister Nalbandian noted Armenia attached great importance to
parliamentary diplomacy considering it to be a serious field for the
development of relations between the nations.

Presenting the situation around Karabakh talks on Goran Lennmarker’s
request, Minister Nalbandian noted that after a meeting held in
St. Petersburg RA and AR Presidents had commissioned the two countries’
FMs to continue talks within OSCE Minsk group frames on the basis of
Madrid proposals.

The parties noted the problems should be settled only via peace
talks. Edvard Nalbandian noted Armenia had always been for the
settlement of all problems via talks and that Armenia’s foreign policy
was targeted at strengthening stability, security and cooperation in
the region.

In the course of the meeting the parties discussed the issue of
Armenian-Turkish relations’ establishment, as well as other regional
problems.

SERGEI KARAGANOV: RUSSIA WANTS TURKEY-ARMENIA RECONCILIATION

PanARMENIAN.Net
08.09.2008 13:47 GMT+04:00

/PanARMENIAN.Net/ Russia is interested in normalization of the
Armenian-Turkish relations, said Sergei Karaganov, chairman of the
presidium of the council for foreign policy and defense.

He voiced hope that cooperation between the two states can ensure
stability in the region. "Hostility between Armenia and Turkey has
always been a factor influencing the world policy. This presidential
meeting is a historical event, which means that the ice has been
broken," he told the Echo of Moscow.

"It’s evident that the two countries are trying to reconcile because
they feel the necessity to unite to face new challenges and regional
instability," he said.

Turkey’s President Abdullah Gul was in Yerevan on Sept. 6 to watch
a World Cup qualifier between the Armenian and Turkish national
teams. Before the match, the heads of state discussed possibilities
to normalize bilateral relations.