Author: Ekmekjian Janet

TELEGRAM & GAZETTE (Massachusetts)
September 13, 2005 Tuesday, ALL EDITIONS
New crosses to grace outside of Armenian church
WORCESTER
The Armenian Church of Our Savior consecrated two new exterior
crosses Sunday. The largest cross will replace the existing one on
the dome, and the smallest will replace the existing one on the gable
at the front end of the church. His Eminence Archbishop Khajag
Barsamian, primate of the Diocese of the Armenian Church of America,
shown in the center of the top photo, leads the consecration
ceremony. The purchase of the crosses was made possible through a
donation from Margaret E. Bedrosian of Worcester and her family in
memory of her late husband, Edward. In the photo at right, Mrs.
Bedrosian, left, receives a hug from fellow parishioner Margaret
Kazarian of Worcester.

ARKA News Agency, Armenia
Sept 19 2005
MEMBER OF UAE SUPREME COUNCIL TO VISIT ARMENIA
YEREVAN, September 19. /ARKA/. The member of the Supreme Council of
the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Emir of Sharja, Sultan Mohammad
Al-Kasimi is to be on an official visit to Armenia on September
19-21. The press service of the RA Foreign Office reports that during
the visit he is to hold meetings with RA President Robert Kocharyan
and Premier Andranik Margaryan. Sultan Mohammad Al-Kasimi is to visit
the Tsitsernakaberd Memorial to Genocide victims, National Picture
Gallery of Armenia, where Days of Culture of Sharja are to be opened.
He is also scheduled to meet with students of Yerevan State
University, visit the RA National Academy of Sciences and
Matenadaran. Sultan Mohammad Al-Kasimi is also to visit Sevan and
Dilijan. P.T. -0–

Azerbaijan: Country outlook
COUNTRY VIEW
ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
PUBLICATION DATE: September 07, 2005
OVERVIEW: Although the Economist Intelligence Unit’s baseline forecast
assumes that the president, Ilham Aliyev, will continue to consolidate
his authority and remain in power over the forecast period, there is
still a small risk that an aggressive attempt to restructure the
political scene could antagonise members of the ruling elite, leading
them to challenge his authority. There is also likely to be unrest
surrounding the forthcoming parliamentary election. The economy is
expected to continue to grow rapidly, owing to external investment in
the energy sector and rising energy production. Real GDP growth is
forecast to reach 20% in 2005, owing to a substantial increase in oil
output, and will accelerate to 25% year on year in 2006, as gas
production begins to rise in tandem with oil volumes. As there are only
limited sterilisation tools available, the authorities will allow a
slight nominal appreciation of the currency against the US dollar, which
will keep inflation in check. The current-account deficit is forecast to
swing into substantial surplus in 2006, as oil production is ramped up.
Domestic politics: The political scene will be dominated in the short
term by the approach of the parliamentary election, which will be held
on November 6th 2005. Although Mr Aliyev is likely to survive
politically the tensions that will build as the election approaches, he
will probably emerge weakened from the process. Largely thanks to a
changed international context, the opposition is thus expected to be
stronger and more influential after the election. It has become
increasingly clear that the government’s long-standing strategy of
manipulating elections and excluding the opposition from power is less
viable than before. International pressure for increased political
liberalisation, particularly from Azerbaijan’s most important ally, the
US, has increased considerably in recent months, and the government is
now more likely to shy away from the sort of blatant electoral
manipulation seen in the past.
International relations: One development that is increasingly affecting
Azerbaijan’s foreign policy is the greater stress by the US government
on the promotion of democracy. In the past the US was willing to work
with the semi-authoritarian leadership in Azerbaijan, since it was
preferable to the chaos that dominated the country in the years
immediately following independence. Although this policy has now
changed, the difficulty for the US will be to judge the amount of
pressure that it will be able to exert on Azerbaijan’s leadership
without triggering an upheaval. The new US policy will also create
problems for Mr Aliyev. He will find it harder now to fulfil one of the
main objectives of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy–namely, promoting closer
ties with the US, with the goal of fending off interference from its
larger neighbours, Russia and Iran, and avoiding the animosity of
smaller countries in the region, such as Armenia and Turkmenistan.
Policy trends: Economic policy will focus on the challenge of
maintaining macroeconomic stability during a period of rapid economic
growth. The fiscal stance will be loosened slightly, so that spending
increases on welfare projects to alleviate poverty and to stave off
potential social unrest. A tightening of monetary policy is therefore
likely to be required. The level of official debt, both domestic and
foreign, will remain low, but the issuance of domestic debt will
increase as a way of mopping up any excess liquidity linked to by
hard-currency inflows. However, inflation is still likely to be higher
than in recent years, because of the limited number of policy tools at
the disposal of the Azerbaijan National Bank (ANB, the central bank),
and because the bank will be reluctant to let the exchange rate
appreciate significantly. In the event that the authority of Mr Aliyev,
comes under serious challenge, this would result in a bout of political
instability, and even limited reforms would be put on hold. However,
every effort would be made to ensure that the operating environment for
oil companies remained favourable.
International assumptions: As a result of the ongoing strength of oil
demand and our long-standing forecast for a slowdown in the growth of
supplies from both Russia and other non-OPEC producers, we expect prices
for dated Brent Blend to average US$55.5/barrel in 2005. This price
projection includes a risk premium to reflect the growing concerns over
global spare capacity in crude oil and tight refined capacity. As OPEC
production gradually rises, global stocks will continue to build
(particularly once the US driving season ends), and we expect prices to
ease slowly from current highs. However, prices will be subject to
occasional sharp increases. Geopolitical concerns and price expectations
will encourage consumers to continue to make forward purchases, as well
as to stock up in anticipation of uncertainties and perceived tightness
ahead. By 2006 we expect an annual average price of US$53.5/b for Brent.
Economic growth: A surge in oil production at the Azeri-Chirag-Guneshli
(ACG) oilfields, which began in February, pushed up real GDP growth to
18.9% year on year in the first seven months of 2005, compared with 9.4%
in the year-earlier period. We expect the economy to expand by 20% year
on year in 2005, reflecting strong growth in oil production and
extremely high oil prices. Growth will accelerate to 25% year on year in
2006, owing to the completion of the first phase of development of the
Shah Deniz gasfield and further rises in oil output. Economic expansion
will also be supported by continued large-scale inflows of foreign
direct investment (FDI) into the oil and gas sector, which is undergoing
a rapid and intensive phase of development. Capital investment in
January-July 2005 reached Manat14.8trn (US$3.1bn), up by nearly 10% year
on year. Capital investment now accounts for about 50% of GDP.
Hydrocarbons development and production will drive economic growth over
the forecast period. However, strong growth will be limited to oil and
related sectors, such as communications, and hotels and catering, with
the contribution to GDP of the broader non-oil economy set to decline
gradually.
Inflation: High FDI inflows related to hydrocarbons development pushed
up consumer price inflation to 15.7% year on year in April, but the
ANB’s decision to raise interest rates in subsequent months slowed
inflation to 12.8% year on year by July. Hard-currency inflows, combined
with additional inflows related to the rapid growth in oil exports (not
all of which will be sterilised by channelling them in the overseas oil
fund), will continue to exert inflationary pressures, although seasonal
declines in food prices will temper month-on-month consumer price
inflation. Average annual consumer price inflation is expected to be 12%
in 2005, and will fall to 8.5% in 2006 as monetary policy tightens
further. Decelerating inflation will be helped from the second half of
2006 by a decrease in FDI as hydrocarbons activity enters a less
intensive phase of development, and as some export earnings are diverted
into the SOFAZ oil fund.
Exchange rates: Although the government sterilises part of the oil
windfall by depositing foreign currency in its overseas oil fund,
hard-currency inflows are still affecting the economy and boosting the
money supply. The ANB will allow the manat to appreciate slightly in
nominal terms over the forecast period, in order to restrain the
expansion of the money supply and contain consumer price inflation. The
recent rise in interest rates will not help to prevent further real
appreciation, although the amount of speculative capital that is likely
to be attracted into domestic assets will be very small, given that
there are few attractive assets on offer. Some of the products of the
non-oil sector will be priced out of their export markets by the
stronger manat.
External sector: With the hydrocarbons sector at an intensive stage of
development until the middle of 2006, import spending will be extremely
high over this period. Foreign investment projects in Azerbaijan’s
hydrocarbons sector require substantial imports of capital goods and
services, since Azerbaijan’s industrial base is insufficiently developed
to service oil and gas investors. High oil prices in 2005 will ensure
that the current-account deficit decreases significantly, and it will
swing into substantial surplus 2006, when exports of crude oil and gas
surge. The first tanker of oil from Azerbaijan’s ACG oilfields will be
shipped to Western markets towards the end of 2005, while the export of
gas from the Shah Deniz field will begin from mid-2006. The external
deficit in 2005 will be entirely covered by FDI.
SOURCE: Country outlook

ARMENIAN AMBASSADOR TO USA: ECONOMIC FREEDOM IN ARMENIA HIGHEST IN LIST OF TRANSITIONAL STATES
YEREVAN, SEPTEMBER 14. ARMINFO. Armenian Ambassador to the USA Tatul
Margaryan met with Head of the Overseas Private Investment Corporation,
an independent US Government agency, Ross Connelly, Tuesday. The
press-service of the Armenian Foreign Ministry told ARMINFO, during
the meeting, the Ambassador stated that due to the reforms by the
Armenian Government, the country is in the lead of the group of the
transitional states as to economic freedom. The economic field of
Armenia is favorable for foreign investments, the Ambassador said.
In his turn, Ross Connelly expressed readiness on behalf of OPIC
to stimulate investments of American businessmen in the economy
of Armenia, as well as the cooperation to upgrade the awareness of
American businessmen of the programs OPIC implements in Armenia. The
largest of the programs is financing of the Marriott-Armenia repairs.
According to the economic freedom rating prepared by the US Heritage
Fund, Armenia ranks the first in the CIS, and in the 44th place among
155 countries in the world.

AZERI PRESIDENT SAYS MILITARY SPENDING TO EQUAL ARMENIA’S ENTIRE BUDGET
Yeni Azarbaycan, Baku
17 Sep 05, p 2
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has said that the international
community should not be concerned about the increase in Azerbaijan’s
military spending as years of peace talks with Armenia have yielded
no results. Addressing a meeting at the Defence Ministry, Aliyev
said that he has set himself a task to make Azerbaijan’s military
equal to Armenia’s entire budget. He said that in 2006 the country’s
military spending will double and reach 600m dollars. The following
is an excerpt from unattributed report by Azerbaijani newspaper Yeni
Azarbaycan on 17 September headlined “The president has held a meeting
on army build-up” and subheaded “Ilham Aliyev: the Azerbaijani army’s
combat readiness deserves appreciation”.
Subheadings have been inserted editorially:
The Azerbaijani president and commander-in-chief, Ilham Aliyev,
yesterday chaired a meeting at the Defence Ministry on the development
of the army in Azerbaijan.
[Passage omitted: Defence Minister Safar Abiyev and top officers
welcomed Ilham Aliyev outside the ministry]
Addressing the meeting, Ilham Aliyev said that the army has been
developing in Azerbaijan at a high pace and very successfully. The
establishment of a proper army has brought dividends to Azerbaijan.
We are strengthening our military potential, and I am confident
that this process will also continue developing at a high pace in
the future.
[Passage omitted: about the late President Heydar Aliyev’s role in
the build-up of the army]
“Azerbaijan is living in a state of war. Our land is under occupation,
and bearing this in mind, one should pay major attention to the
army. As the commander-in-chief, I attach major importance to these
issues. It is possible to say that I deal with these issues on a
daily basis because this is the most important issue for us.”
Peace talks yield no results
President Ilham Aliyev added that Azerbaijan must restore its
territorial integrity. “We are trying to settle this issue peacefully,
through talks. However, as we know, years of talks have yielded no
results. It is possible to settle the issue in a just manner as a
whole, and I hope that we will achieve this because Azerbaijan’s
position is based on international legal norms, Nagornyy Karabakh
is an integral part of Azerbaijan and our territorial integrity is
recognized and supported by the entire world community.
Historical justice is on our side, too.”
[Passage omitted: Armenia does not comply with UN resolutions on
Karabakh; efforts of international organizations yield no results]
“At the same time, the issue remains unsettled. Despite our endless
talk about all these factors, diplomatic, economic and other political
achievements, the issue remains unsettled. What should Azerbaijan do in
this situation? Azerbaijan has conducted and expressed its peaceful
policy for many years, but the issue remains unsettled. For this
reason, it is natural that we are increasing our military potential.”
[Passage omitted: repetition]
Azerbaijan’s military spending will equal Armenia’s entire budget
President Ilham Aliyev stressed that next year’s budget will be more
than 3.5bn dollars. In this case, military spending will grow as
well. In 2004, military spending was 175m dollars, in 2005 – 300m
dollars and in 2006 it will be 600m dollars, and this is not the
final rate. As you know, my task is that our military budget should
equal Armenia’s entire budget, and maybe exceed it and it will exceed
it. We will achieve this.
President Ilham Aliyev said that Armenia and some international
organizations are concerned about this, i.e. the increase in
Azerbaijan’s military budget is the reason for their concern. The
increase in our country’s military budget is our sovereign right. On
the other hand, the sides, organizations and countries which are
playing a leading role in these organizations, should be concerned
about the fact of Azerbaijani land has been occupied for more than
10 years.
Nagornyy Karabakh is not a democracy
“I would like to speak about another issue. Armenian propaganda
has been trying to put Azerbaijan in a negative light before the
international community. They are trying to prove that there are
allegedly democratic institutions in Nagornyy Karabakh, democracy
is developing and human rights are protected there, and that in
Azerbaijan, democracy is not developing. This is a completely false
and very dangerous theory.
“First, Azerbaijan is a country which is developing at a very high
pace in terms of democratic development. Everyone admits this, and
first of all, the Azerbaijani people see this and welcome our policy.
Second, the Nagornyy Karabakh regime is an illegal establishment. It
is not recognized by anyone. A criminal regime is ruling there. For
some reason, hypocritical politicians do not pay attention to the
fact that drugs are being cultivated and trafficked, armed groups
and terrorist organizations are deployed, human rights are violated
and a totally militarized regime exists there. Nagornyy Karabakh is
presented as an alleged example of democracy in this region.
Armenians to fail hampering regional projects
“They have done their best against the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan
oil pipeline, but failed. Now they are trying to tie the
Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline to the Armenian-Azerbaijani Nagornyy
Karabakh conflict. This is a completely false idea. There is no link
between these issues. The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan is an international
project, it is supported by international financial institutions
and major states, it is being successfully implemented. No lobby or
Armenian organization will be able to hamper it.
“I would like to speak about another issue as well. Armenian
officials have recently started making statements against a new
regional project. You know that we support the idea of building a
railway linking Azerbaijan to Turkey, and the construction of the
Kars-Tbilisi-Baku railway is becoming a reality. We are actively
working and ready to take financial commitments to make this railway
happen in the near future. The feasibility study is being prepared,
and when it is ready, Azerbaijan will take financial commitments as
the first move.”
The head of state ridiculed the Armenians’ protests against the
allocation of funds for the construction of the Kars-Tbilisi-Baku
railway.
[Passage omitted: Ilham Aliyev said that Armenians have no moral
right to occupy Azerbaijani lands]

Pan Armenian News
U.S. EMBASSY DONATED THREE COMPUTERS TO PROSECUTOR GENERAL OFFICE
16.09.2005 07:39
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ As PanARMENIAN.Net came to know from the U.S. Embassy’s
press center, on September 15, the U.S. Embassy donated three computers to
the Office of the Prosecutor General of the Republic of Armenia. A small
donation ceremony was held during which Deputy Head of the Investigative
Department and Head of the Anti-Trafficking Division of the Office of the
Prosecutor General Marsel Matevosyan signed the grant agreement.

Assa-Irada, Azerbaijan
Sept 16 2005
Pressure group urges to stop British MP’s visits to Garabagh
Baku, September 15, AssA-Irada
The hard-line Garabagh Liberation Organization (GLO) has demanded
that visits by Baroness Caroline Cox, vice-speaker of the British
House of Lords, to Upper Garabagh be prevented and a monument to
British soldiers removed from the Cemetery of Martyrs in Baku.
A 20-member British delegation led by Cox and comprising Christian
organizations visited the occupied territories of Azerbaijan on
Tuesday as part of the so-called `Visit to Arstakh’ mission.
The GLO, in a statement, warned that it will launch continuous
actions to demand closure of the British embassy in Baku if the
British MP’s visits to the occupied land are not stopped.
Several members of the GLO youth council painted the monument to
British soldiers in black last night.
Cox paid her first visit to Upper Garabagh in 1989, during the
initial stage of Armenia’s aggression against Azerbaijan.*
From: Emil Lazarian | Ararat NewsPress

Azeri president, Asian Development Bank official discuss ties
Azad Azarbaycan TV, Baku
14 Sep 05

Text of report by Azerbaijani private TV station ATV on 14 September
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev received the executive director of
the Asian Development Bank, Paul Speltz, today. The president praised
a high level of cooperation between Azerbaijan and the organization
and expressed the hope that joint projects would be implemented in the
future as well.
Aliyev said that although Armenia’s aggression had been a serious blow
to Azerbaijan’s economy, the country managed to make progress over the
past several years.
For his part, the guest thanked the president for creating conditions
to work in Azerbaijan and spoke about some plans.

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The arrest warrant against Dogan Ozgüden remains in force
Journalist Emin Karaca condemned
for insult to the Army chiefs
Journalist and writer Emin Karaca was condemned on September 13, 2005
by the penal court of first instance N°2 of Istanbul to a 5-month
imprisonment old according to Article 301/2 of the new Turkish Penal
Code (replacing Article 159/1 of the old Turkish Penal Code) because
of his criticisms as regards the putschist generals of March 12,
1971. The prison sentence was later commuted to a suspended fine of
900 YTL (New Turkish Liras).
The court also decided to acquit the responsible editor for the
Türkiye’ review of ve Avrupa’ da Yazin (Literature in Turkey and
Europe), Mehmet Emin Sert, who had published Karaca’s article on the
occasion of the 30th anniversary of the execution of three leaders of
progressive youth.
In the same case started in 2002, Dogan Özgüden, chief editor of
Info-Türk, had been indicted for his article entitled “After 30
years”, appeared in the same review, and accused of having insulted
the Army chiefs. On September 27, 2002, the court sent to all border
check points an arrest warrant ordering that Özgüden, exiled in
Belgium, be immediately arrested and submitted to the justice as soon
as he enters to Turkey. Up to now, this arrest warrant has been
renewed five times by the same court, but Özgüden refused to surrender
to Turkish justice.
At the audience of June 22, 2005, the public prosecutor asked that the
lawsuit file against Dogan Özgüden be separate until its arrest in the
event of its return to the country so that the lawsuit against Karaca
can continue separately. The court thus decided to separate Özgüden’s
file and to suspend his trial until his arrest in the event of his
return to Turkey. (For more information on the case:
)
The condemnation of Karaca shows that, in spite of the modification of
the Turkish Penal Code, so appreciated by the European Union, the
indictment and condemnation of writers and journalists for “opinion
crimes” continue as before.
The independent communications network (BIA) announced on September 13
2005, that under the Article 301 (old article 159) of the TPC a number
of journalists are always tried for insult against the Turkish nation,
the Army, the government or the forces of security simply because of
their criticisms. It gives like examples the following recent cases:
Novelist Orhan Pamuk, for insult to the Turkish nation
Journalist Ragip Zarakolu, publisher of Belge Yayinlari, for insult to
the State, the Republic and Atatürk Journalist Hrant Dink, editor of
the Armenian newspaper Agos, for insult to the Turkish nation
Journalist Dogan Özgüden, for insult to the Army
Journalist Emin Karaca,, for insult to the Army
Lawyer Sehmus Ulek, vice-president of the Association for the defense
of the oppressed (Mazlum-DER), for insult to the Turkish nation
Journalist Rahmi Yildirim, for insult to the Army Journalist Ersen
Korkmaz, editor of Demokrat Iskenderun, for insult to the government.
***************************************
Latest news on the situation of human rights in Turkey:
Le 25e anniversaire du coup d’état du 12 septembre 1980 Les héritages
honteux de la dictature militaire persistent au seuil de l’UE 50
protesters of September 12 were attacked and detained by police La
Turquie condamnée à Strasbourg pour opération de police meurtrière Les
tentatives de lynchage s’intensifient depuis cinq mois Le Conseil de
sécurité insiste sur la poursuite de la répression
La Turquie condamnée à Strasbourg pour violation de la liberté
d’expression Poursuites contre Orhan Pamuk – L’UE s’en prend à la
Turquie International PEN ‘s reaction against Orhan Pamuk’s indictment
L’écrivain Orhan Pamuk inculpé pour “insulte” aux Turcs RSF: Un
journaliste d’origine kurde incarcéré en Turquie Heavy fines to Turkey
for violating freedom of expression RSF scandalisée par la garde à vue
arbitraire de quatre journalistes
Appel de solidarité pour la paix et le dialogue en Turquie Second
International Conference on EU, Turkey and the Kurds La police
allemande attaque les médias kurdes Manifestants kurdes attaqués par
des nationalistes turcs: 200 blessés A Kurdish Demonstrator Killed by
security forces in Batman
Une conférence majeure sur la Turquie au Parlement européen Belgique:
Matinée d’étude sur le combat contre le négationnisme Négationnisme:
Le procureur juge Emir Kir “ambigu” Anniversaire d’incidents
anti-grecs: une exposition saccagée à Istanbul

The Messenger, Georgia
Sept 15 2005
Government studies Kars-Akhalkalaki railway
The government of Georgia is studying the technical and economic
issues surrounding the Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku railway.
Prime Minister of Georgia Zurab Nogaideli told journalists at the
State Chancellery on Tuesday that consultations on attraction of
investments would start soon.
According to the information of the State Railway Department of
Azerbaijan, a meeting of the Transport Ministers of Georgia, Turkey
and Azerbaijan on the issue of Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku railway project,
originally scheduled for August 24, will now be held in September.
The length of Kars-Akhalkalaki-Baku railway is 98 kilometers; 68
kilometers of the railway will cover territory of Turkey while 30
kilometers will run through Georgia.
Preliminary estimates place the cost of the project at USD 400.
Opposed to the project is Armenia, whose Minister of Transport,
Andranik Manuklyan, states that as the railway circumvents that
country, it will be used by Turkey to put pressure on Armenia.