TIME FOR CURTSEYS IS NOW OVER
Karine Ter-Sahakyan
PanARMENIAN.Net
23.07.2009 GMT+04:00
Naturally, no president will sign the promulgated Madrid principles,
since right after singing he will, at best, have to hand in his
resignation.
It seems it is time to make decisions in the process of the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict regulation. To all appearances, the time for
curtseys is now over, leaving its place for threats. Time is released
till autumn, when Presidents of the two countries will, after all,
have to sign the Madrid principles offered to them, no matter they
like it or not.
/PanARMENIAN.Net/ According to western logic, two months, which will
pass since the day of promulgation of the principles, is utterly
enough for societies of the two countries to be ready for what awaits
them. As usual, no one intends to ask the opinion of the main side,
i.e. the people of Nagorno-Karabakh, and it is exactly this fact that
makes the whole construction vulnerable. A very remarkable incident
occurred for all the process participants the day before: OSCE Minsk
Group Co-Chair, Ambassador Yuri Merzlyakov of Russia stated that the
USA and RF change their mediators. French Co-Chair Bernard Fassier
remains in his post, since it was only him who did not make statements,
which would later be necessary to repudiate, shifting the blame onto
"inaccuracy of translation". Moreover, Fassier gives the impression of
a diplomat, who knows how to have his own will. Exactly this kind of
mediators are necessary at the given moment, and most likely, Russia
and the USA will choose proper partners for him. All these events give
the impression that time of twisting arms is approaching. By the way,
in vain Ilham Aliyev attaches so much importance to his hydrocarbon
reserves: they will not save his country from the pressure of world
powers. But we have only a very vague idea about what we will have as
a result. What Armenia hopes for is completely obscure, as she has
absolutely nothing. But if one takes into account the increasing in
frequency visits of western diplomats, servicemen and officials, it
becomes clear that Yerevan, in case of a certain fortunate course of
events, will be able to somehow come out of the "regulation" process
with minor losses. Let us recall that a pair of years ago with the same
regularity Yerevan hosted Russian representatives, led by RF President
Dmitry Medvedev. Something changed during the Obama-Medvedev meeting,
after which the Karabakh process livened up. It is quite possible that
the Presidents actually arrived at a specific agreement on Karabakh,
naturally reporting about it to P!
resident quila.
The change of Co-Chairs, in our opinion, pursued another goal too:
both Mathew Bryza and Yuri Merzlyakov already "linger" on their
posts and each of them has already developed predilections and even
sympathies for this or that conflicting party, what, actually, is
not true about Bernard Fassier. By the way, American cochairmen have
always supported the position of Baku, being bound to her with energy
interests. It is enough to recall Steven Mann, one of the initiators
of the oil pipeline Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan or Mathew Bryza, who supports
the Nabucco project. However, it is a bit more difficult to comment on
the predilections of Russian diplomats, since they proceed from their
own, sometimes incomprehensible, preferences, which are nearly always
out of place. However, this is perhaps the requirement of traditions
of the Russian diplomacy: at the last moment to do exactly what no
one expects, and the recent Gazprom transaction with Baku can serve
as a proof to it. But it’s not so substantial. The real concern is
how successful can the mediators carry out their mission, if it is
really the one we think of.
But there may also be another turn of events. Let us assume that
the USA and Russia renounce their mediation in view of the failed
mission on regulation, and they are replaced by other countries,
which will manage the process better. Naturally, Moscow and
Washington will be backing them up. World powers believe that they
can move aside, if a war suddenly breaks up in Karabakh. Only a
very naive person can think so, or one who has calculated every
step of the ‘regulation’ process. Non-alternativeness of a military
solution and "compelling to peace" are quite different notions. But,
unfortunately, the Co-Chairs are presently engaged in applying the
second variant. Naturally, no president will sign the promulgated
Madrid principles, since right after singing he will, at best, have to
hand in his resignation. Armenia has already experienced it in 1998
and its repetition might have a very bad outcome on the country. As
for Azerbaijan, it was able to avoid this scenario thanks to Heydar
Aliyev. But his son can hardly manage to stay in power.
No matter what turn of events we’ll witness, the region awaits
great changes which we’ve been discussing since the beginning of
the year. It is also clear that neither of the conflicting sides can
benefit from these changes. The visit of the Vice President of the
USA to Georgia was the last attempt to restore balance in the region,
but, to all appearances, it was not so successful an attempt. The only
comfort is that France will never give consent to the participation
of Turkey in the regulation process, no matter how definitely the
USA and Russia insist on it. And there is no doubt that they will
insist, convince, and even force. The non-accidentally quieted down
activity of the Turkish Foreign Minister has again livened up after
the Sargsyan-Aliyev meeting.
At the Krakow meeting due in July the OSCE Minsk Group mediators are
going to present to the Presidents and to the Armenian and Azerbaijani
societies the refreshed principles. Little remains until we’ll have a
chance to see the complete plan of regulation of the Karabakh conflict,
which, in a broader sense, does not exist. There exists only the desire
of the USA and Russia, and recently also that of the European Union,
to consolidate their position in the region; it is simply a sin not
to use such a chance. As far as the population is concerned, it is
always informed at the last moment, when either nothing can be done
or it is necessary to launch a war. A third way-out, unfortunately,
does not exist.